UPDATE 9:20 AM, 7/13: Unseasonably cool, damp mid-July period peaks today in Southwest Virginia
UPDATE 9:20 Am, 7/13: Most of the rain has stayed along and west of the Interstate 77 corridor through the night and morning, but a few showers to the east will move north through the Roanoke and New River valleys this morning. (Latest radar linked here.) Drizzly, damp weather has also developed along parts of the Blue Ridge as easterly winds bank some moisture against the higher terrain. That “wedge” effect is likely to keep cloudiness overhead and temperatures below normal today in much of our region, with highs no higher than 80 most places. END UPDATE
This summer “cool” snap is going to peak in the next couple of , maybe stretching into Saturday, with cloudy, damp weather very much in contrast with the sunny, hot weather of a week ago. Easterly winds circulating around high pressure to the north will bank moist breezes from the Atlantic up against our mountains, and that will lead to an increasing “wedge” effect today and Friday. This often brings mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures to the region east of Interstate 77 and the Virginia-West Virginia line. With a few breaks in the clouds, highs might (MIGHT, I said) make 80 in the Roanoke Valley and areas east and south, but probably won’t get that high on Friday. West of Roanoke, expect 70s highs — perhaps even a few stuck in the upper 60s on Friday, if rain develops early. Meanwhile, moisture will also be streaming northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico over that front that has been stalled all week to our south, which will start lifting northward again before it washes out. Heavy rain is expected over the next 3 days to our west in Tennessee and Kentucky, and it’s possible upslope easterly flow may enhance showers especially on Friday along the Blue Ridge as well. We have moisture moving at us from two different directions, a complicated interplay of rain-enhancing upslope and air-drying downslope wind flow across the region, and a sluggish yet fickle frontal boundary, so rain totals will vary and be hard to predict for any given location across western Virginia. But cloudiness, atypically cool temperatures for mid-July and damp to wet conditions will be theme for the next 48-72 hours, before a humid warm-up begins.
July 12, 2012 - 8:12 AM
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I’m enjoying the cool air here in the Roanoke valley! Being under a wedge this time of year is nice.
We got another 0.04″ of rain yesterday. Not much, but it brings us to 0.66″ so far…which is about what I was figuring we’d get around my way, since most of these big forecasted rain-makers don’t deliver in my part of the NRV. I think it has to do with terrain, because if the orientation is right, it splits up west of us into WV and east of us into Floyd, and the easterly upslope stuff has a hard time reaching us as it deluges along the Blue Ridge, and it seems a lot that comes from the west similarly dries out before making it past the mountains of WV. We always get some from any direction, but a lot less than the HPC maps show for the broader area.
The system has delivered elsewhere though, and more than I’m sure those folks would have preferred.
Is that large area of moisture over TN headed our way?
You said “… humid warm-up begins.”
Those are not pleasant words to read. Never mind that it is summer in the valley and we do our best to rival the swamps of the deep South for humidity.
I’m encouraged that we will get some rain later today. The trajectory of the rain appears to be favorable…for now anyway.
Nancy and I have been up here for almost a week now, and the weather has been terrific. I played golf Tues. afternoon about 40 miles north of here, and did not start the round until 2:45. It was by far the best golf weather for an afternoon round that I can remember in a LOOOOOONG time. Temps in upper 70s, cloudless, very low humidity, and a nice, constant breeze. Unfortunately my golf did not match the weather. Local newspaper had a forecast from Accuweather for Tuesday, and the high for Dover/Durham/Rochester was forecasted to be 82, which might have verified. But the forecast also claimed that the “REALFEEL” was going to be 89!!! No way. If anything, the temp felt probably a couple of degrees lower than the actual air temp.
Nice to see that the incredibly brutal heat wave has taken a hike in SW Virginia, and that some areas have gotten at least an inch of rain. I bet my back yard is not one of them. I’ll find out what we got while we were away on Sat. night. We head for home tomorrow. Way too far for us to drive in one day. Best wishes to all of you.
I say “humid warmup” because while it was very hot in the recent heat wave, the dew point values weren’t excessive most days. This time around, highs probably won’t make 100 — mid 90s is usually about the hottst we get in Roanoke in this kind of pattern — but higher dew points may make it feel about as bad.
Today was Roanoke’s first sub-80 since June 18 at 79. Blacksburg’s high of 75 was its third straight below 80 — 6 in a row there June 13-18. The derecho and heat wave have blurred our memories, but June was mostly a pleasant month for most of its first 4 weeks, with many places in the 40s 2 days before the derecho/hottest day on June 29.
From NWS-Blacksburg discussion looking ahead into the July 21-22 weekend:
THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF ANOTHER FORMIDABLE HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND…WITH H85 TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO HEAT WAVES WHICH BOTH PRODUCED 100F AT ROANOKE
Does the extreme heat return? European model says perhaps it does 7-10 days down the road.
(I think the discussion is counting our last heat wave as 2 heat waves — the first on the last couple of days of June and the latter about a week later, the days Roanoke went above 100 officially).
By the way, Death Valley, California had a temperature of 107 degrees today .. a LOW temperature of 107, that is.
This weather is so strange. 70′s in July, with drizzle and mist in VA; 90′s in NY. Still…I’ll take this over the 102 degree scorches any day.
Will the storms to the south make it into our area or is the showers to our west our most likely source of rain overnight?
I doubt the actual storms in the Carolinas survive the night, but that does indicate moisture starting to surge back northward. Stuff to west probably doesn’t get much farther east. While air from east is somewhat damp, it is much drier at many levels than the moisture from the southwest, which is getting eaten up to some extent crossing the mountains.
Must be a force field over central virginia! No rain here all week! If unfortunately a new round of severe heat breaks out our goose is cooked! Pardon the pun, but October cant get here soon enough! What are these 70s I hear talk of down your way, upper 80s here is coolest we have gotten all week! Oh well nothing I can do but grin and bear it I guess and hope we have a winter this year with some good snows to help us catch up on our drought. Any chance we can at least get a 1/2 inch of rain up here in the next day or 2? LOL
Your chances probably depend on isolated thunderstorms, Jared.
And don’t overestimate what SW Virginia is getting, at least the part east of I-77 and north of the counties right on the NC line.
Our high today was 69.9 with a bit of drizzle.
Nice July.
New HPC map keeps heaviest rain mostly west of Roanoke/New River valleys in Virginia. This is through FIVE days, too.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
Congrats to you folks in the I-77 corridor and points west, Rick of no-longer-Dryville, Michael Hoback, clarkdocvet, Eva (if you are still out there in weather blog land), Johnny of KHLX (or whatever those 4 letters were/are) for your rain totals. I have this awful feeling I will be seeing lots of brown grass in less than 48 hours at a certain SW Roanoke County home with 1420 feet elevation.
Manchester NH is forecasted to reach about 94 or 95 this weekend, according to TWC. I think that would be quite a bit hotter than SW Virginia. But I will be “outta-heah,” as the locals who refuse to pronounce Rs might say. Again, I will be in the cooler location, lucky me on that issue. How’d that happen?
Still sitting at 0.66″ of rain, I’d welcome a pattern change that encouraged pop up storms, at least then we stand a better chance to get rain…this system has been too fickle and stingy with the rain in my area for my liking. The cool weather its nice, but doesn’t make up for the dryness.
I am not sure my pumpkins will survive another heat wave. The last one took out several vines. But, that clears room for the remaining to grow, so hopefully they will be sturdy enough to survive the next round.
Kevin,
Like everyone else, I’ve been enjoying our little wedge setup this week. I was just wondering how close yesterday’s and today’s temps compare to the record low highs for Roanoke and Blacksburg?
steady drizzle here in Galax today,third straight day of light rain off and on. Going to an outdoor concert in Charlotte tonight,and still looking at good chance of rain there,too. oh,well,ponchos are still stylish i guess…
No rain for me. My grass is brown and crunchy. Just lots of clouds. These gray gloomy days have matched my mood. My big, beautiful, sweet dog died unexpectedly on Wednesday morning. It hasn’t been a beneficial week in any way in our household. Very sad.
Very sorry to hear of your loss, Leo Lady.
Sorry for your loss,Leo Lady. I know how tough that is.
I too am sorry to hear of Leo Lady’s loss. The loss of our beloved pets can really take a toll. I hope you all can get some rain. No major rains in the last 12 hours but we have had a steady rain this moring. What we have received in the last several days should ensure my bean crop and hopefull my corn. They are even talking about one more dreary day tomorrow. Not sure when the Bermuda High will push this away or at least make it more scattered.
Lady Leo…that’s a rough one I know. So sorry.
I am loving this weather. We’ve had a few gentle showers but nothing major so far. Our garden is doing great in spite of the heatwave. I think it likes this back and forth pattern! I will take the cool myself. Not looking forward to hot and humid. Wonder if we will see anymore weeks like this week again before Sept/Oct?
Leo Lady, I’m so sorry for your loss. I “think” I know who you are now. My kids came over and played with the dog and I have some pictures. I’ll make sure to leave some copies for you. He was such a sweet boy!
I’ve really been enjoying this weather. I would take this weather most of the year honestly!
We are leaving in the morning for Oak Island, NC. Is there any hint of any tropical storms/hurricanes on the horizon that may affect us there? According to TWC, it is only supposed to be mid 80′s with chances of storms daily, but wanted to see if anyone else had any info they could add.
On another subject, a letter to the editor writer took us to task today for use of the word “derecho.” http://bit.ly/Nmtq3e (last letter). Which I replied to on the Round Table RT editorial blog. http://bit.ly/SiMbIb
My thanks to all who have sent their condolences my way. Shanon, I now know who you are and, yes I would love to have copies of the pictures. Safe travels and I hope you have great weather!
We got a couple hundredths of rain this morning, and since dry…and the radar has dried up too. This has been a bummer in my neck of the woods, but nothing like the loss of a beloved pet…you have my condolences Leo Lady.
Leo Lady – I was sorry to read about your loss – my thoughts are with you
So sorry Leo Lady on your loss. I loss my kitty last January and understand how difficult it can be.
At the SOBX beach now – warm and humid, unstable air. We had a ‘scattered shower’ earlier but Saturday is forecast to be a good beach day.
Hokie Trax I hope that good weather sticks around the NC beaches for a while. From what I have seen, it is supposed to be nicer and cooler there than here in SW VA. We are leaving at about 3 in the morning for Oak Island.
Just gave Leo Lady a tour of my garden. There are plenty of veggies that will need to be harvested while we are gone and I definitely want someone to be able to enjoy them. They seem to like this cooler, mild weather also!
Wow. So sorry to hear you lost one of your constant sources of joy, Leo Lady!! I have lost lots of loved ones in my life, including one dog, and it is one gigantic bummer. One piece of advice I was given when my brother died suddenly when I was only 19 that helped me back then is to focus on the happy, healthy times of the “departed’s” life. Unfortunately for you and yours right now, you know what dogs do when they come in to our lives? They grab our hearts and never let go.
Just try to get through the coming days. Hopefully time will soften the blow. Luckily that happened each time for me.
Meanwhile, Weather Wizard, I am watching the radar get tantalizingly close to SW Roanoke County by coming up through some parts of Floyd County. Is there any chance that SW Roanoke County will get anything more than lonely raindrops out of this? Even though I am nearly 400 miles away, I bet that somehow my neighborhood gets missed ….. again.
GRRRRR!! From Kirk: “KHAN, like a bad marksman YOU KEEP MISSING THE TARGET!!”
I would guess a tenth or two for Roanoke area from rain showewrs moving in. Heaviest rain staying SE in Martinsville/Henry County area, southern Franklin County area, etc.
Yes, it looks like SLM Road area is getting some very light rain showers.
Meanwhile Franklin, Pittsylvania, etc, are getting bombed. Sigh …..
Any chance for later tonight or tomorrow?
I would say we’re in the scattered afternoon showers/storms mode now. A few spots get a downpour. Some others get lighter rain. Others get nothing.
We’ve had a few heavier showers in my area, thankfully…as of early afternoon we had a quarter inch more. Not sure what we have now, it rained quite a bit this evening once it got dark.