UPDATE 9 AM, 8/22: Time to focus attention on the tropical Atlantic
Today’s Weather Journal column: U.S. hasn’t had a “major” hurricane strike in 7 years
UPDATE 9 AM, 8/22: Through the weekend, continued similar weather for Southwest Virginia, with highs mid 70s to low 80s, slowly warming a few degrees, and lows upper 50s to mid 60s, slowly warming a bit also, with scattered afternoon showers and storms possible. We’ll continue to watch the progress of Tropcial Storm Isaac westward into the Caribbean and the possible development of a Tropical Storm Joyce behind it. I’ll have a full update on a new blog post this evening. END UPDATE
UPDATE 5:15 PM: Tropical Storm Isaac has officially been declared by the National Hurricane Center, with a path bringing it into the Caribbean by Wednesday and possibly approaching the U.S. early next week. END UPDATE
This foggy, rather chilly morning in Southwest Virginia might have set record low temperatures if drier Canadian air had won the battle with the tropical moisture earlier this week. As it was, lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s still occurred in many locations along and west of the Blue Ridge, and even Roanoke dipped to 59. Another day of highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with scattered afternoon showers and storms is on tap. Expect a very slow warmup as the week progresses.
The tropical Atlantic is about to become a major meteorological and media obsession, and likely with good reason. Tropical Depresson Nine, approaching the Antilles, will likely become Tropical Storm Isaac (presuming the newest western Gulf of Mexico disturbance doesn’t beat it to development) later today or Wednesday, and then probably rapidly intensify into a hurricane. Forecast guidance varies on its track, but almost all of it has it approaching some portion of the Gulf Coast, Florida or Southeast U.S. coast by the early to middle part of next week (0Z GFS depiction for next Tuesday evening at left shows it moving into Georgia). If it can dodge the mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Cuba, it could well be a hurricane making U.S. landfall in about a week. Anyone with coastal plans should be monitoring the progress of this storm. There is of course some chance it will affect us in Southwest Virginia, but it’s too far out to determine that kind of detail yet. And then, there is another system behind this one that needs to be monitored as well.
August 21, 2012 - 9:10 AM
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How many foggy days so far this month? Hoping for snow this winter!
That count varies dramatically by elevation and location. That’s why I don’t put much stock in that saying — valleys get more fog, but don’t get more snow in winter.
But just for the heck of it, what is the count at your house, someone?
For days and counting in my neck of the woods
Hope the hurricanes stay away to much damage and loss of life. Hopefully my earlier prediction will come to pass or I may have to heat up the grill for some crow yuck
Previous should say four foggy mornings also a temp of 54 degrees at 5:30 AM. Missed prediction of high 40′s last week as well for over the weekend but did get nice rain.
I’ve counted 4 or 5 really foggy mornings during my AM commutes in the NRV, where the fog has been fairly universally thick from the New River near Radford on into Christiansburg and Blacksburg. Most mornings have had some semblance of valley/river fog though, or otherwise patchy fog.
Agree with Kevin that the tropics need to be watched and has excellent info above. Here’s what the other models are saying to compare:
0Z Euro loop link for Tuesday morning, courtesy of Penn State:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html
Euro is slower and takes Issac a little more west into eastern Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2-3 storm with a landfall in the FL Panhandle than the GFS. What bears watching in this storm is what is it going to do after a potential FL landfall. Both the GFS & Euro are showing about the same track up to hour 84, then they go their separate ways after that but not very far, which is normal.
This just in…the 12Z GFS for Tuesday PM:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html
12Z GFS run is weaker with Issac and holds onto what the 0Z run had in a west coast of FL landfall but staying south of VA.
For grins and giggles…
The Canadian model (CMC) loop has Issac going further east and up the east coast. This model right now is the outlier. It has Issac as a Cat 3-4 off the SC coast on next Tuesday the 28th and coming right up over western NC & VA on the 30th as a tropical storm.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html
Will update later and see what the 12Z Euro says.
Old folklore tale. Not the first one on da Knob yet and CS has had a bunch. Reverse weather forecasting, concerning snow. Stick to hornets nests and wooly worms.
My peppers usually take a bloomin fit as the weather cools also.
Up here on the ridge, I am at 8 foggy mornings so far. Let it snow, let it snow!!
Wow, the canadian model sounds like Hurricane Hugo! I remember being in 7th grade and it came right up over Charlotte and then right up the New River valley. I will never forget the wind from that bad boy! Was out of school for a number of days, cant remember how many. I remember for years you could go into the forest and see rotting trees that were uprooted during that storm, I guess most are now rotten and decayed now. I believe it was still a Tropical Storm when it passed us and moved into West Virginia. Does anyone else have any memories of ole Hugo?
Dopp Copp…jetstream right over you…34000/39000ft..flights making up 30minutes Fla to NYC…if there are breaks in the clouds u may see many of them south to north this eve…and conversely..flights to south will be lower to stay beliow stronger headwinds..cntrl and eastern Va over 100knots
I think I know where the CPC thinks “Hurricane” Issac is going next week.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
I lost count of the fogs at the Chapel but it has been very foggy all but 2 or 3 mornings. It is alwasy foggy in Rich Valley in August. I cross a ridge on the Shortsville Road headed toward Abingdon each morning and that is where the fog usually lets up. Abingdon is usually fog free by the time I get there at 7:30 except on those mornings that everyone gets that thick fog. Guess us snow lovers can keep hoping and putting those beans in a jar.
Issac is born! The 5:00 PM advisory just out:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Back with more in next comment
Quag’s Tuesday PM Tropical Update:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
The 12Z Euro came out and Issac is Ivan’s Twin Brother almost in terms of track that is.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
Euro takes Issac across the Middle of the Antilles due west into the Caribbean Sea then west into the Straights of Yucatan then…A TURN TO THE NORTH FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A CAT 3-4…Yikes! After that Issac turns NNE toward the Appalachains
Re Joe’s 3:16 comment: That is why we’ve been able to drive the cool air southward. Though we’re on the eastern side of the trough with the south-to-north winds, the trough itself is dipping from central Canada. We typically don’t see jet stream winds like that aloft in mid to late August over us.
Here is how it initialized on the 12Z GFS model.
http://tinyurl.com/9kmrauj
Low of 51 at Blacksburg this morning — where are you, Blacksburg Mike? My wild guess of 10 days ago (49) almost verified!
We did have clear skies above the fog last night, so we had good radiational cooling — in fact, it intensified the fog by dropping surface temperatures to the dew point level in the low 50s.
This was an impressive Canadian air mass for August. I think if it had not been corrupted with tropical moisture and could have stayed cool and dry, we might have set some record lows this morning.
Jared: I’ll bet Clarkdocvet has memories of Hurricane Hugo. If I remember correctly it hit the Woodlawn/Galax area pretty hard. Lots of trees down and some flooding I think.
Last year, I talked to Robin Reed about how the April 27 tornado outbreak measured up on his list of memorable weather events as a TV meteorologist since the early 1980s, and he ranked only the 1985 floods and Hugo above the tornado outbreak. Haven’t asked him since the derecho how it fits in.
Not sure what the temp was on my porch this am but at the airport below Bristol is was 53 which set a new record. Loving this weather. Believe it or not though, Michael Hoback could use some rain. By the way things are looking it is going to stay to our east for a while and you folks may get more than us for now.
Did anyone within 3 counties of the West Virginia line get rain today? I drove through a small but decent t-storm on the east side of C-ville (Shadwell/Keswick) about 2:30 today. I spent two nights up in Northern Virginia (Sunday/Monday). Dear Lord, thank you for giving us the chance to escape that madhouse. Just watching the 11 PM local news last night was like watching 2 weeks’ worth of violent or disgusting news on a Roanoke tv station.
DC., you got in the mood to start hauling in wood yet? Been at it since the wind storm and ain’t finished yet. Need to clean the chimney and be good to go. 58* here this AM., so it do tend to get one in the habit of stocking up.
Well I went for my evening walk/run and it was revealed to me the winter forecast. We will be measuring snow in feet and not inches and here is why:
1. Many fogs in August
2. Accuweather’s dependable forecast for more snow than usual
3. My sighting of the first wooly worm – black from end to end.
NEED I SAY MORE. Please do not tell Doug, it may cause him to move.
wdbrand – still have some wood close to the house from last year but haven’t moved the rest yet. It is still in the back woods. Chimney has already been swept but now need to pull the stoves away from the flues and clean out those pipes and then the stove. The Man of the House went up on the roof last spring and put covers over each flue (to keep out the rain) so we need to remember to uncover them before burning. If Issac does like the models are predicting, we better leave the covers on the flues.
Joe, have not seen any planes – it is still too cloudy. I think in the last week there have only been 2 nights that we have been able to see any stars or satellites.
I think I am at about 6 foggy mornings here. I kind of lost count…ha ha!
I am watching Isaac closely since I have family on the west coast of Florida.
I remember Hugo well. I was working at VDOT in Hillsville and the Salem district office wanted a list of roads that were closed. We told them the only @#%$^ road open was I-77 and it was down to one lane in places due to wrecks and trees down!
My power was off for 8 days and the home I grew up in had quite a bit of damage and our timber took a real beating. The number of trees down everywhere was hard to believe.
I remember AEP saying the peak wind gust was 85 mph. We at VDOT had one of those handheld wind gauges and it pegged the top during the worst gusts but I can’t remember how high it registered, 70 mph maybe.
It took 4 of us to close the back doors on an ambulance at a wreck on I-77. It was raining and blowing so hard the rain was blowing through the open back doors and hitting the inside of the windshield in front.
VDOT chartered a plane to fly brush chipper parts into Roanoke from somewhere in Wisconsin, I think. It took many weeks to get the mess cleaned up. The FEMA damage reports took forever to complete too.
Sorry for the length of the post but the memories came flooding back.
I hope it never happens again….
One tree at the top of the ridge is starting to turn. Don’t know the type but am seeing lots of yellow and orange haha. Awfully early I know, but some of the smaller trees tend to turn much earlier than the rest.
Also Michael Hoback – add to your list of reasons why we will have snow this winter – tonight on our road, I saw a hornets nest about 5 feet off of the ground. It was even with the passenger’s side window of our SUV. Haven’t been able to spy my first wooly worm yet up here on the ridge. I do remember late summer of ’09 and I did see lots of solid black wooly worms.
48 this morning in Woodlawn. Thought we might get to 50,so that was nice…yep,Leo Lady Hugo was right up our alley…was my first year out of vet school so I remember it well!! Crazy thing was,the major flooding around here came about 1 week AFTER Hugo,as we got some major rain onto already saturated ground.
I was in Sumter, SC in 89 and we took a direct hit from Hugo, still at hurricane status over 100 miles inland. Sustained winds over 70 and gusts over 100mph. I woke up to so many trees down you could not even walk down most roads. We went 7 days without water, 9 days without power, 30 days without phone service. But you could drive 30 miles in either direction and it was like nothing happened. Like so many other storms, it was one of those things you never thought could happen that far inland, but it did. It was not as strong when it hit Charlotte, but it is even more amazing that it did the damage it did as far inland as Charlotte is.
Hugo did lots of damage from S.C. Thru N.C. Into Va. My parents suffered damage to property they had in S.C. There was a lot of tree damage even into Roanoke as I recall.Mcclellanville S.C. was especially hard hit . Found a yellow jacket nest in the ground this evening and as I recall this is a bad sign for snow lovers. Still have not seen wooly worm and acorns are not falling yet so cannot make solid prediction yet. Blacksburg weather was wonderful where we worked today with temp. of 75 degrees
I was in Charlotte when Hugo hit. Remember Hugo well.
Speaking of storms….The GFS Hurricane models for 0Z Weds. just came out. What a joke! There is no way that Issac will track and turn that quick. Not buying 0Z GFS. Still banking on the Euro for this one.
A little background on the forerunner to the Farmers Almanac..
Seems Ben and James both did a little borrowing
from the old world,,
And fabrication of just about anything was fair game.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poor_Richard's_Almanack
Also..would be interested in seeing a copy of Fall 1948 Almanac…
see what it said about the first week of January 1949 in the upper
plains.
http://www.deadwoodmagazine.com/archivedsite/Archives/Blizzard49.htm
..or even the forecast for Oct 1979 referenced here ( I got caught in this one in the NW Highlands of Va..)
http://www2.timesdispatch.com/news/2011/oct/30/tdmet08-valley-cleans-up-unusually-early-snowfall-ar-1420874/
Michael Hoback, your comments about measuring snow in feet rather than inches remind me of a classic Stephen Foster song …… Here you go, Mountain Empire man!! And for all the rest of you who think that this upcoming winter will be 2009-10 all over again. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4U1|5y2rkzA
Well, the link didn’t work. Rats. You can go to youtube.com and search “Beautiful Dreamer.” The one I was trying to link to was posted there by “Ptapit733.”
Clark where abouts in Woodlawn do you live?
Sam Oakey, where are you? It’s getting very deep here on this blog. And the “deep” does not refer to inches of snow, either, weather fans.
I remember Hugo in Hokieburg – public school was canceled – my oldest was in kindergarten and youngest was still a lap baby. Power went for a part of that day and it was dark, windy, and scary. I was trying to keep my sons occupied and had a small battery transistor radio on. I don’t recall that BBurg got as much rain or damage as Roanoke and other areas.
Carol…
Reference the satellite you are seeing late in the evening
almost directly overhead..I believe it is NOAA-19
The latest version of our polar orbiters..
There is a backup for it..but I believe NOAA-19
right now is the primary satellite for daily satellite
meteorology data.
Theres some good data on the internet about this satellite.
It was launched from Vandenberg in early 2009..
(side note..workmen dropped it on the floor where they were assembling it..it cost 135 million to fix it.)
http://www.heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?satid=33591
I don’t see how this can become a major hurricane when it has to run over all the big islands. Hispanola is really the hurricane killer.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085616.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
Trevar, it is interesting that you mentioned Sumter, SC during Hugo. At the time my father worked for a company that had property in Sumter. The day before Hugo hit, he drove to Sumter for a regularly scheduled meeting, thinking that the hurricane wouldn’t be that bad. That kind of thinking is fairly common with those who have never been through one. That night, as Hugo came in, my Dad sat on the bed in his hotel listening to parts of the roof coming off. He could hear glass breaking outside all night long. He said that it was utterly terrifying. When he went to check on the company property the next morning, he said Sumter looked like a war zone. Needless to say, the meeting he drove down for never happened and he drove back to Roanoke. He now has a very healthy respect for hurricanes.
Sorry, folks, I’ve been a bit slow on the blog with a new update and approving comments. Been busy on the homefront. I will plan a new blog entry by this evening.
I added a short update and a link to my column today about the recent lack of major hurricanes hitting the U.S.
You are forgiven, KM (for being just a few hours behind in posting comments), and I’m sure that I speak for everyone here when I type that. WE all hope that everything is relatively OK on your home front. That is something that fans of all types of weather can agree on here. I don’t say this nearly often enough …. you do an outstanding job. Kevin.
Speaking of outstanding, I will get worried about a heavy snowfall year when the AO and especially the NAO go substantially negative, and (if and) when El Nino pumps moisture our way. Those are all things that I have learned from you. Talking about foggy mornings in August and sightings of wooly bears is fun, and I get a kick out of them, but not something I am going to get worried about.
Isaac has plenty of open water to work with.
Forecast track clips southern Dominica..
and eastern part of Cuba..
Extremely improbable to stay over Cuba for long..
Southern Fla should be on their tip toes for a
possible significant Monday or so event.
We got 1.3 inches from the Sunday morning event … I had typed up that comment on Sunday evening from the motel computer where I was staying, but for some weird reason when I clicked on “Post Comment” the server would not allow my comment to go through. Well, I just checked the rain gauge late yesterday, and I have received another 0.7 inches after Sunday noon and before Tuesday 5 PM. Probably Monday. 2 inches in (at most) 3 days?!!? You all can guess what I am rooting for now …. no, not a hurricane, but another “toad in my driveway” sighting! LOL
Hey Zach, less than a mile as the crow flies from Harmon’s outlet.
I am sure that at least one of the J-K-Q (Joe-Kevin-Quags) triumvirate will expand on the following within the next few hours, but I saw a map of the Caribbean on TWC with the routes that various models showed for Isaac. Surprisingly, many (not most, just 3 or 4) of those particular ones showed Isaac heading north after it approaches Cuba and missing Florida to the east.
Personally, I think that Isaac will be a hurricane and that it will still be a hurricane when it makes landfall somewhere in the U.S. (I am not counting Puerto Rico nor the U.S. Virgin Islands, but it could be one of the other Gulf Coast states in addition to Florida) There, by predicting that, I probably just kept it from happening. And Rick’s point about the mountains of Cuba ripping it apart is definitely a possibility.
The NHC must have heard me at 6:18am. Their update shows Isaac losing hurricane status when it crashes into the island of Hispanola, then becoming a hurricane again after clearing Cuba. Probably would not be a major hurricane by the time it hits the SW coast of Florida.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145025.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
It remains to be seen if Isaac will plow right over the mountains of Hispaniola. The problem with that, while it might reduce a hurricane’s strength hitting the U.S., is that it would create a massive human tragedy in the Dominican Republic and/or Haiti. Haiti isn’t close to fully recovered from the earthquake of 2 1/2 years ago and has lots of eroded hillsides extremely susceptible to runoff and mudslides. Minor tropical depressions sometimes kill hundreds or even thousands there.
Here’s the 6Z GFS bringing Isaac right into the Tampa-St. Petersburg area on August 29. Keep in mind, the Republican National Convention is scheduled there Aug. 27-30. This track would be very similar to that of Hurricane Charley in 2004, which crossed a narrow, relatively flat part of Cuba and did not lose much intensity before becoming a compact Category 4 hurricane at landfall. (Eye was 5 miles wide at landfall)
http://tinyurl.com/8tuzkam
And look what the 0Z GFS does to Virginia on Aug. 30.
http://tinyurl.com/cfgxjay
Just a couple of many scenarios at this point, but lots of forecast guidance wants to bring this toward the general area of Florida and then northward.
The Euro goes a lot farther west with Isaac, more toward New Orleans.
A lot of the hurricane models and GFS ensembles prefer more southern and eastern Florida for initial US landfall.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/00zatcflateinvest1.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfensinvest1.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif
Kevin, I meant to post this last night but the talk of snow signs got me all excited and I forgot to mention it. The September issue of National Geographic just arrived at our house and the main story is about “Weather”. Should be an interesting issue for folks here on the blog.
What are things looking like for Saturday evening’s race in Bristol? This morning’s NOAA forecase is the first time that they have indicated a chance of showers there…is this threat going to continue to grow?
I’m getting an increasing feeling that my local rainfall deficit may be dented next week, if not pounded completely out of the picture. Got plenty of time to watch this though…with family all over the southeast from GA through NC and VA, I’ve got a reason to watch very closely.
I remember Hurricane Hugo well! Smyth county VA was hit hard. Trees down everywhere, loss of electricity. I remember my dad getting his chainsaw and riding up and down the roads helping cut trees out.
Ryan: As much moisture is available, it will be hard for there to not be some chance of showers each of the next several days. Probably more sporadic kind of stuff like is typical this time of year, not organized.
Nice weather in Blacksburg for working again not to hot not to cool just right. Can’t wait to see first wooly worm
Thunder and light rain up here on the ridge. Radar shows heavier rain southwest of me into the town of Floyd and then on towards Shelor’s Mill.
KM, you and Brent Watts of “7″ are in agreement. Both of you point to the extreme “spottiness” of downpours, especially today (last two words were from Brent). One hit the Cave Spring Corners area about 11:15 to 11:30. It was the kind of rainstorm that would have had me pulling my hair out if I had not received the 2 inches early this week. There were some lonely raindrops at my house as I pulled out of the driveway at 11:07 AM, but it was a real gusher from roughly the corner of Cordell Drive and SR 419 to Promenade Plaza (across from North Cross School and Annie Moore’s restaurant). When I got home by 11:50 there was not even any dampness in my driveway.
I think that this coming winter is going to be similar to this summer in a way. RECAP FOR ROANOKE: First 18 days of June were way below normal for temps, especially with the high temperatures. Then from June 19th through July 30th, much hotter than normal, except for a 6-day period from July 10-15. Since then, overall normal, except for the recent cool snap. Even the normal/slightly warmer than normal temps of early August were because of the warm low temps (which we discussed a lot here). Only one August day so far has reached 90 at RRA … 92* on the 8th. And it looks like the end of August shouldn’t be that much warmer-than-normal to make a big difference. And August has had another big bonus …. moisture. Almost 4 inches at RRA, and even your COLC has had about 3 inches now.
I think that this winter is going to follow a roughly similar pattern, with a multi-week pattern of either cold or warm followed by a multi-week pattern of the opposite. And then one more reversal to the original pattern. And I bet that whenever (and of course “IF”) the warm spell/thaw hits, that period of time will have more precipitation (on an average daily basis) than the cold periods.
Anyone live in Stuart County? A nasty-looking t-storm with bright red embedded is in the SW corner of that county. Merle Spencer, that isn’t all that far from you, is it?
Quag’s Wednesday PM Tropical Update for August 22:
Issac starting to look more like Camille or Katrina now. Mmmmmm….
But first, our next guest on Hurricane Party 2012 is Tropical Depression 10 aka Joyce
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl#contents
National Hurricane Center link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Wednesday Afternoon 12Z ECMWF model loop from Penn State:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
A note on the latest Euro & to confirm Kevin’s assessment above…at hour 120, Issac comes right over Ol’ Habana (Havana) Cuba & has already made a turn to the NW into the SE GulfMex.
At hour 192, a Cat 3-4 storm making a bee line for the Louisiana/Mississippi Gulf Coast making a landfall east of New Orleans near Bay St. Louis/Gulfport, MS…THE SAME EXACT LOCATION AS KATRINA & CAMILLE’S LANDFALL late Wednesday night/early Thursday AM (August 29-30). Clearly, the ECMWF has been the most consistent model for the past 3-4 days.
At hour 216, Euro places remnants of Issac over northern Louisiana/Southern Arkansas, then staying in the ARKLATEX region at day 10 (Sept. 1) .
Here’s the 12Z GFS to compare.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html
12Z GFS is finally showing signs of joining the party but still shows a more easterly track once Issac hits the GulfMex with a landfall from Panama City to points east. Funny that the GFS & NHC are still trying to show Issac will hit Tampa next week. I’m not going to say anything else about Tampa or get political. This is about weather.
The Canadian 12Z Weds. Loop: Still the outlier & way off
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCNA_12z/cmcloop.html
One note on TD10 (Joyce). All 4 models right now show Joyce (if she comes to life) going north of the Bahamas and towards the SE coast Labor Day weekend as a weak hurricane or Tropical Storm.
P.S.
Doug…I agree with what Rick says but only if Issac tracks directly over or is very close to Cube Libr. From my post above, I think the NHC will bring their track more west tonight. It would be nice to get some rain from this cane. My early analysis of this winter is that I think it will be cooler than what the CPC shows on their outlook maps for the east but I am not certain…I’ll worry about winter in late October.
When some of the buzz started last week about a possible Southeast U.S. hurricane around Labor Day, I think the models were picking up on the likely soon-to-be Joyce, not Isaac.
Why is Henry M. going against both Euro and GFS models? He is saying that his best guess would be for Issac to ride up the coast of Florida and make landfall around Myrtle Beach. He keeps harping on if the storm does this there will be catostophic flooding in the carolinas. Just wondering if he thinks the storm dies out in the carolinas and Virginia gets no rain out of this. Kevin or anyone know what is his rational behind this thinking?
Don’t know Henry’s thinking, Jared, but my new blog post addresses the central issue in determining where Isaac goes — which is where and how much of a weakness develops in high pressure to the north.
I have to ask- what is the relationship of hornets to snowfall? I know in Buchanan we have had quite a fe foggy mornings. I have also seen quite a few nests around our house. I would love a winter full of snows!