Coolest mornings since pre-derecho June expected in SW Virginia by Sunday/Monday
Overnight, a few showers and storms are lingering, especially Roanoke and southward. A few downpours in the heaviest cells can be expected. A few showers may even linger on Saturday, especially east of Roanoke.
A Canadian cold front is pushing through overnight and early Saturday. It may become hung up just east of us for a while Saturday into Sunday. But by Sunday and Monday mornings, Southwest Virginia is likely headed to our coolest low temperatures since the morning of June 28 — the day before summer 2012 had what is likely to be its defining weather day of intense heat and the evening derecho. That morning, it was 52 at Blacksburg and 59 at Roanoke. Since then, Roanoke has been no cooler than 64 and Blacksburg no cooler than 58, both on Aug. 1. On the whole, the Virginia weather pattern isn’t going to change greatly in coming days, with 80s highs lingering for many from Roanoke eastward through the weekend, and just about all the region back in the 80s most of next week, with lows generally in the 60s. But on a national scale, there is a definitely regime change occurring that will unseat the central U.S. heat dome and replace it with repeat shots of Canadian air pouring into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. We will see occasional cold front passages during the next week or two, each one lifting the chance of showers and storms, and also keeping extreme heat in check. The next is due to arrive about Tuesday or Wednesday. Some of that much cooler Canadian air might even drain our way at some point for a day or two.
August 10, 2012 - 11:38 PM
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My unofficial rain total ended up being 2.1″ since Friday at about 4 p.m. Very narrow strip of yellow in Carroll County on the storm total radar.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=fcx&product=NTP&loop=no
High temperatures in the 80′s sounds refreshing to me!
Since the start of August, Roanoke has had highs 90 or above only on 2 of 10 days. Blacksburg hasn’t topped 90 since July 8. So the projected highs aren’t a big change, though it may feel more refreshing for a couple of days because of lower humidity.
I woke up to another 0.40″ in the guage. Mud city around here…….sorry Doug.
International Falls, Minn., had a record low of 38 yesterday morning. That was actually colder than 5 days in their abnormally warm March. That area of the north-central U.S. will remain the core of what could turn into a rather long period of unseasonably cool August air, from which we might get a shot or two amid the very normal-looking temperature profile our region expects the next week or 2.
We got some rain overnight last night it appears, at least from the wetness on our deck. Still no rain gauge so I can’t report an amount. Another foggy morning here so that brings us to 5 in my little valley!
I think next weekend will be our first shot of true Canadian air, with widespread 50′s and some 40′s in the west for lows with widespread 70′s for hgihs.
I emptied out .2 from the gauge so it does look like we got something last night in my area too. My backyard is a jungle and the ONE cherry tomato plant is starting to look like the Little Shop of Horrors plant, sprawled out everywhere. AC is off but it’s damp.
Since nobody has started a Tina B rain gauge fund drive, I’ll kick it off with a quarter mailed to Kevin to hold til it gets to 5 bucks. Wally World has them[4 bucks] that’s as good as the one she has now.
Ended up with “0.46″ inches of rain for the last 24 hours. Tina we have had 5 foggy mornings so far up here.
Nice we will have some cooler weather next week for the start of school (Floyd Co and Montgomery Co). Yep, it is that time of the year again.
I had 0.9 inch from 3 days of showers, about 2 miles south of Roanoke city. My gauge got a bonus brief downpour early Thursday evening that scooted around some other folks.
Question for the mailman when he gets back from his round: are quarters (for the rain gauge fund) mailed in an envelope subject to the nonmachinable surcharge?
Good question. If they won’t fly then I’ll write a check.
Huge Congrats to you, Johnny, on getting deluged during the past 53 hours!! I might give one body part from my lower half to get that kind of action. My yard would return to Emerald City status, at least for a little while. And thanks for the condolences, Rick.
And thanks for posting that rainfall display, Johnny. You were at one end of the spectrum, while I was in the part of SW ROA County that had the lightest shade of blue, meaning less than 3/10ths. Even where I deliver mail the lawns have turned bright green!! Even on some of the yards around Deyerle Road and Mud Lick Road in SW Roanoke city (just south of Brandon Ave./Brandon Oaks retirement home), less than 2.5 miles from where I live, the grass looks an awful lot better than here. The little rain I did get helped a tiny bit, but I am afraid that “Brownsville” is gonna return in just 2-3 days. The back yard is mostly there already.
At least the heat has taken a hike for a while, and the sun is lower in the sky, and the days are shorter.
Quarters in a regular envelope are fine (at least as far as I know). If it is not out of your way, it might be wise to bring the letter to a post office and have the clerk “hand-stamp” it, so that the letter does not go through the sometimes “hungry” postal machines. But if someone puts a mess of coins in an envelope, then the weight of the envelope becomes an issue. I suggest taping the quarter(s) to a small piece of paper and then placing it inside the envelope, so they don’t move around.
Getting back to why this issue came up, Tina B, do you really need the moola for a rain gauge?? :>) :>) :>) Or like me, is this an issue of obtaining something, a tuit? As in “You simply haven’t had the time (or in my way-too-often case, “the memory”) to get a round tuit?”
Hey, Nick, I am going to definitely choose December 12th as the date of the first snow for both ROA and BBURG again. I thought about the significance of the date …….. 12-12-12. I think I will refer to it as Lawrence-Welk-in Triplicate Day. After all, he used to get his Champagne Orchestra to start playing by saying, “A one and a two.”
Nancy and I are always pleased when we take Blondie-Boy out for a walk, and he “Welks.”
Cool weather lovers — check out today’s 6-10-day CPC outlook (computer-generated on weekends, no meteorologist input).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
Both runs of the European model today drop a slug of truly fall-like air into the eastern half of the U.S. next weekend. This idea (mentioned by Zach at 10:06 a.m.) has some legs.
Starting to wonder if some of the Northern Plains/Great Lakes area gets an extremely premature frost out of this.
TWC’s Hourly forecast for Draper, VA shows a 7 AM temp of 59, only warming to about 68 by 10:00. Since I am planning on making another “Dawn Raid” on DVGC (“Dawn Raid” is the name of one of John Barry’s pieces of background music for the movie Goldfinger, by the way), it will be long pants and possibly a sweater or even a jacket for the COLC tomorrow. And I will love it! What do you think, Kevin and Rick and clarkdocvet and Johnny, is TWC being a bit optimistic with that 59 degrees? Could it even be 558 or 56*?
NWS is going mid 50s in most of NRV tomorrow AM. Some chance clouds inhibit cooling a bit tonight.
Finally cooler here today,only hit 86 for a high,low this morning 67.Might go down as low as 60 tonight.Can`t wait for Oct.and cooler temps!
Hey, Tina B, one method of judging how much rain an area got is by looking for puddles and how deep (and wide) they are. Years ago when I had the same postal route for 6.5 years, I could tell (roughly) how much rain had fallen (light, moderate, or heavy) by the prevalence and depth of puddles in certain locations. There was one intersection which only got puddles during and right after a heavy rain, and once they were so deep that the water came well up onto more than half of my truck tires. Sure enough, when I got home I found out that RRA and other spots in the valley had gotten a 2-inch drencher that day. Like our lucky KHLX man did recently …..
One lone storm has creeped over the North Carolina border from the frontal boundary and led to a severe thunderstorm warning for the Martinsville/Henry County area.
Looks like the CPC has done a major “about face” in regards to the eastern states getting warm next weekend. Check out the two outlooks. And rejoice at the projected rainfall situation on the two outlooks, too. Especially on the 8-14 day. (YES, these ARE computer-generated only)
6-10 day: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
8-14: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Doug: Note my 5:40 p.m. comment, linking 1 of the 2 maps. I will expound on this a bit more in my next blog post, later tonight. Short answer for the change is that models are now more or less in agreement about this push of Canadian air next weekend.
Those that avoided drought in the northern states might soon lose their crop to a late summer frost/freeze? Sad possibility.
Despite the fact that August is behaving itself quite nicely in comparison to July, the month at ROA is still about 2 degrees warmer than normal. I didn’t look at the nums, but I bet the diff comes from the minimums, again. Even so, with perhaps cooler than normal weather coming here, this summer could end up being an engine-and-caboose type of deal. Or “middle of the train” deal if you like the heat. First 3 weeks of June were nice, then the heat was on for late June and especially July, but August looks to be possibly normal or even cooler than normal. This August sure beats August 2007!!! …. IMHO
I’m thinking mainly Dakotas and Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and upper peninsula of Michigan for possible scattered frost — and I would emphasize possible and scattered at this point. One thing about the drought and the dry surface air that develops above it is that, just as it leads to rapid temperature gain and record highs, it can lead to rapid temperature loss in radiational cooling and record lows. Dodge City, Kansas, which has been as high as 107 as recently as August 1 and 101 on Wednesday, set a record low of 53 Friday morning, but was already back to 97 today.
One run of the Euro today did swirl a bit of snow on the back side of a low only 200 miles or so north of Lake Superior in Canada late next week.
Doug: You’re on the money about everything in your 9:18 comment.
Went to Saltville this evening to pick up a few groceries and drove with my windows down. It was actually cool. Temperature on my front porch is now sitting at 61 degrees. Somehow or another I think the worst of heat is behind us. I may eat those words but patterns are definitely changing and lets hope for the rest of the summer. Sure like 80 and 50.
It would appear that a large scale pattern change is coming. Cooler wetter is on the way and just in time. The yard and shrubs have taken a real beating this summer with crap grass taking over. This up coming fall may be cooler and wetter than normal