UPDATE 9:15 PM, 8/5: Downpours at Blacksburg epitomize continued pattern of rainfall have-a-lots and have-nots
UPDATE 9:15 PM, 8/5: As radar shows tonight, a broad area of showers and storms slowly moving across western Virginia is creating more haves than have-nots in terms of rain, and a few have-to0-much spots, with a flash flood warning toward the North Carolina line in part of Grayson and Smyth counties. The rain will slowly diminish overnight, but perhaps a few dry spots can get some wetness, in addition to the repeated weekend downpours in the Blacksburg area. END UPDATE
The image at left is a close-up focus of the larger National Weather Service Doppler radar rain estimate from midday Friday through late Saturday evening. One spot stands out — the little patch of yellow and orange amid darker greens very near Blacksburg. While the National Weather Service office may have only gotten a half-inch total the last couple of days, the orange dot indicates locally 4-inches plus. This radar shot is an estimate, but a couple of Weather Journal commenters in the last thread reported 1.75 to 3 inches near the eastern side of the Blacksburg. Elsewhere, there are a few other locally heavy spots near Fancy Gap, west of Interstate 77, and east of Lynchburg. There is also Roanoke’s interesting color shade in which rain to east/dry to west was almost perfectly divided by U.S. 220/I-581 — I got caught in this downpour in south Roanoke, watching sheets of rain blow in while my house a couple miles away got nothing. But the Blacksburg area just happened to be in the bullseye of slow-moving, torrential rain dumpers each of the past two days, Saturday’s storms likely building on left-over pooled moisture and outflow boundaries from Friday’s storms.
Sunday’s weather is likely to again create have-a-lots and have-nots in regard to rain. Steering currents aloft are weak, and moisture is thick, so once terrain effects, upper-level impulses, outflow boundaries and daytime heating cook up storms, they won’t move much, and will put down a lot of rain in small areas very quickly, while others not far away just hear a rumble and see some dark clouds and get nothing. A diffuse cold front is working in from the northwest, and that will likely enhance storms especially west of Roanoke by late Sunday and Monday.
The week ahead looks sticky with highs mostly in the 80s and continued periods of scattered showers and storms. Extreme heat is likely to stay far to the west, but cooler, drier air will stay mostly in Canada, for now. So we’ll be stuck with tropical, sticky stuff, with no highs above 100 and very few lows dipping below 60, excluding high elevations.
There are three areas of disturbed weather to watch in the tropics. The weak disturbance east of Florida may kick a little moisture our way next week. Tropical Storm Ernesto has a good chance to end up in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. There are big questions about whether Tropical Storm Florence will make it across the big pond at all.
August 5, 2012 - 12:57 AM
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I am taking a little more family time here in late July/early August, so I may not be on the blog for a blow-by-blow of ongoing storms on Sunday (which I didn’t do on Saturday, either). That said, I do expect to keep an eye on radar and occasionally approve comments on the blog, maybe make a few, as the day unfolds. Keep an eye on Radar / Future Cast in the right margin for the latest on the position of storms. If one gets over your head, you may get a lot of rain very quickly.
We seem to be in between the deluges. I watch them pop up on the radar – one to the west, one to the north, one to the south, one to the east – but we get missed. Did get on the edge of the BB deluge yesterday but it did nothing more than settle the dust and make it humid. Our grass isn’t brown yet, but it’s getting there.
Still on 2 days on the fog here, for those counting!
National Hurricane Center has taken its circle off the disturbed area near Florida this morning.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
Woke up here at Avon North Carolina to a nice ocean breeze! Sure beats that stagnant immoveable air of central Virginia. Highs projected to be mid 80s here all week with chance of afternoon storms, but again its nice to have some air moving about!
Tina B, that sounds like my neck of the woods. I’ve watched heavy storms deluge on Dublin, McCoy, Blacksburg, Radford…and miss New River/Fairlawn. Our yard is turning brown again as a result. We managed to get a surprise almost half-inch one night, but aside from that it has been near nothing for the past week, when big storms have popped up and managed to stay 2-3 miles away from our place.
Tina and Michael – we are 4 out of 5 for fog here.
I loved your map Kevin – notice that white circle just below the Blacksburg rain – that is right about where I am. I guess I am going to have to do my rain dance to get some rain to dump here.
Well, it looks like rain, it feels like rain, my truck seat and lawn mower seat got what appears to be wet and the PWS says 0.26″ of something tripped the gauge. However, I will with hold posting we got rain til I have a second opinion.
Another Hokieburg downpour this afternoon, almost done. Will check the rain gauge shortly.
Just dumped .45″ from the rain gauge from that little black rain cloud in SW BBurg. All sunny now. In my mind Hokieburg is not big enough to say “east Blacksburg” or “west Blacksburg” but the nature of the weird weather here is that it can rain like heck on one side of town and not the other.
Another downpour in Blacksburg, and the storms split north and south of my house, leaving it dry again today so far.
A beautiful day was in store for the Homecoming at the Blackwell Chapel UMC. We had 120 in attendance and no storms to dampen us. The picnic in the shelter was a bit humid but we had enough fried chicken and country ham to take our minds off the weather. Mountain people sure know how to put on a ‘dinner on the ground’. Strong storms are to our west and headed this way out of KY. Guess I will take a nap and sleep off my dinner till the storms arrive.
I drove out my driveway at 3:30 PM to get some groceries at what we call “Colonial Kroger” (corner of Colonial and Brambleton Ave.s) just as it started to rain. Rained steadily for the first mile up the hill (southbound) on Sugar Loaf Mntn Road, but just before I turned to go east on Roselawn, the heavens opened. Big time. Had to keep the speed to about 25-30 it was coming down so hard. Stayed heavy all the way to Kroger, where I sat in the car for about 7 minutes while the heaviest stuff passed. Came back out about 4PM and it wasn’t raining, but not for long. Returned via Old Cave Spring Road/McVitty/Electric Road and it poured on McVitty and 419. Stopped about a mile from my house. There was wetness and mini-puddles at the bottom of my street, but DRY PAVEMENT in front of my house and in my driveway. How sad. A few drops in the gauge, that’s all. On Old Cave Spring Road I drove through a narrow puddle that was so deep that it threw water well to the right of the car.
I wish I knew what it was that I did to anger the rain gods. This makes two summers in a row of this treatment ……. I bet this rain pattern duplicates fairly closely what happened Wed. evening.
Second opinion arrived aroud 3:30 PM. Another 0.18″ for a total 0.44″ so far.
Well, the radar screen looks very pretty, but only the “anointed counties” are getting the pretty colors. Once one gets east of I77, the only counties within 50 miles of WV that are getting wet are Bland, Giles, Craig, and Alleghany right now. There are signs that the western edges of Montgomery might get in on the action soon. No action in eastern Wythe, Pulaski (now … they got wet earlier), Montgomery (except for some apparently very light showers near Giles), and Roanoke counties.
Hokieburg and Cburg is SOCKED IN with heavy, heavy rain. T-storms as well.
Surprised there ain’t a weather ads. out for the Rke. area. Big line of red to the west.
Here it comes! Lightning in it also.
One dead, nine injured by lightning in Pocono today at the conclusion of the Sprint Cup NASCAR race. Lightning struck in the parking lot. No doubt there’s going to be a lot of chatter after this about what a venue should do during severe weather. Definitely a contrast to Lollapalooza yesterday.
No rain to report yet near Windy Gap in FC…I’m sure my turn is soon. Be interested to see everyone’s totals so far in B’burg, et al.
We had two really close lightening strikes here at the house. One, I think, hit my flag pole, the other nuked a neighbors tree.
All in all, it’s been a welcome rain event here, SW of C’burg. I hope that this signals a change in the weather pattern.
Nice, rain cooled breeze blowing in the house.
A few sprinkles up here on dry Doppler ridge. Watched the storms north of us – guess they were the ones in Blacksburg.
We will see how much rain goes in the gauge tonight. I am thinking not much based on the previous performances of these storms. I would like to be pleasantly surprised though. Watching radar and they seem to fall apart or lessen in intensity as they near the old white ball in the sky.
Doug, I wonder too what I did to anger the rain gods.
No chance of seeing the International Space Station tonight.
Looks like there will be more haves than have-nots with rain tonight as a large area of rain and storms continues to move over the area.
Got back in from a trip to Mabry Mill and Fairy Stone State Park (both in Patrick County) early this evening. Was out of smartphone range most of the day. Missed all of the rain on our day trip.
“Mine eyes (and ears) have seen the glory of the coming ….” etc. We just got a downpour. Drainpipes were running like crazy. It hasn’t lasted long, but looks like we may get more in a few minutes if radar is “telling the truth.”
I just walked outside and it is still raining lightly. Miracle of miracles, there is a full 1/2 inch in the gauge. ……. “Thank you, rain gods.”
Hey, KM, if you are at home tonight (and even if you are not, for that matter), your home should be getting hit fairly hard about now from the downpour that made me happy 20+ minutes ago.
Doppler Gal, you should have been getting some (at least) decent rains by now. The entire northern half of Floyd County (the “other FC,” Amanda … just teasing) is lit up in bright yellows.
One small piece of advice, D. Carol. If you do get a 1/2 inch or more, be sure to thank the rain gods (privately is perfectly OK). I also thank the golf gods when I get a lucky bounce …. and I am a very lucky golfer usually.
Robin Reed thinks that tomorrow could be a mostly wet day for a large chunk of SW Virginia. Bring it on!!!
Yeah, I was shocked you hadn’t gotten any rain Carol, till I consulted the radar. Crazy.
Doug ~ seriously never gave it a second thought that there’s more than one “FC”, haha. Noted and corrected
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Starting to shower a bit here now. I see Roanoke and others are now in a Flood Advisory. I do feel bad for those like it B’burg who have already gotten a ton of rain the last few evenings.
Well the storms over Eastern KY fell apart as a line of storms on the Blue Ridge formed to the east. Nothing but a sprinkle here in the Chapel tonight. Heard lots of thunder and had plenty of dark clouds but no serious rain. Guess I was finally successful sending Doug and Doppler Carol some rain. Now I can forget hauling water up I-81. I prefer the water that comes from clouds anyway. Enjoy your moisture friends to the East.
Glad to hear Doug of Brownsville got some decent rain……looks like more right now too. We had 0.60″ in Wytheville.
Thanks for the kind wishes and good rain sacrifice, Michael Hoback, RH. A tiny bit of the evening out of the rain outcomes tonight (except maybe for the Doppler Gal … I hope that she did not get missed again after 8:45 PM). Rain on the way to the Chapel dissolves, while wd and I escaped being the red-headed stepchildren for once with healthy rain amounts.
I am now up to about 7/10ths, and I can still hear it raining outside. I have received almost as much today as I did between July 9th and September 1st in 2011, so no matter what else happens between now and Labor Day weekend, at least I won’t be quite as bad as last summer.
Alyssa Corfont of Fox 21/27 just showed the estimated rainfall amounts through tuesday evening, and I think it does not include what has already fallen. 1.85 inches additional for Roanoke, and much higher (possibly 3?) for wonder bloggers like Rick in the southern outskirts of Wytheville and clarkdocvet down in Woodlawn, the Woodlawn just north of Galax. And Zach (or is it Zach’s parents place?) in Fancy Gap, too.
Now that I’m wet, am I going to stay wet for awhile? It happened huge time from last September 2-8 last year, but that was trop-storm aided, I think.
Remember when a fellow who called himself “Highlander” made a comment or two here many months ago? He lived in Highland County, of course, the one north of Bath County. Well, his county is getting plastered with rain tonight, even as I type this.
That band of rain sure disappeared in a hurry!
I just ran the WDBJ7 rainfall model, Doug, and it shows similar, another 1.5″ for Roanoke.
That’s always how it works, isn’t it? Once you get rain it feels like it’s never going to stop.
Beautiful little shower here. Trace amounts at best, but still enjoying the moisture without the downpours. Such a contrast to the inches of rain seen elsewhere.
I ended up on the lighter end of the precip today. As of 11PM, I recorded 0.53′ in Blue Ridge, for a monthly total of 0.68. I’m still 0.64′ above normal for the year, so the forecasted rainfall over the next few days will add to my surplus.