Hail-chunking Roanoke storm was exception, not rule; storms expected to be more widely scattered for Thursday
An isolated severe storm with voluminous hail up to golfball-sized just happened to cross the Roanoke metro area early Wednesday evening. The National Weather Service radar rain estimate map for Wednesday shows a streak of higher rainfall totals, many an inch or more, north to south through Roanoke, reflective of about three different storm cells that formed just north of the city and tracked southward. It was the last of the three cells that became severe, dropping a lot of hail on much of the western two-thirds of Roanoke and into Salem and nearby areas of Botetourt, Roanoke and Franklin counties. While much of the Roanoke Valley was getting pelted, the radar map shows that far more real estate across western Virginia was dry. Roanoke’s deluge/hailstorm aside, the atmosphere on the whole is drying out quite a bit from the muggy, showery early-week pattern. Storm development is likely to be much less on Thursday, though as usual with hot days in the 80s to low 90s, a few afternoon showers and storms can pop up here and there.
It appears the core of the heat dome is going to remain well west of our region — widespread 110-plus readings occurred in Oklahoma on Wednesday. No return to 100-plus temperatures appears to be on our horizon, as the heat dome will likely shift even farther west with time. There are even some hints now and then on long-range models of genuinely cooler air from Canada making more of a push than we’ve seen in a long time, but this is not enough of a consensus yet to go with. Heat domes as massive and intensely parched as this summer’s don’t go quietly into their good night, especially in early August.
August 1, 2012 - 11:23 PM
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The landscape around here, about 55 miles due north of Milwaukee, looks an awful lot better than the cornfields west of Chicago. From what I can tell, I would doubt that this immed. area qualifies even for D0, “abnormally dry.” They got a big 1.5 inch soaker on Monday night here. Played golf today with a nice couple from St. Paul, MINN. They said that their rivers and lakes are full and that the corn is looking particularly great.
However, while in CHI., I met a woman from North St. Louis, and she said that the ground became cracked from the heat/drought back around July 1, and has stayed that way. They even got a 1-inch downpour in about 2 hours one evening, but the ground remained brown and cracked. OUCH!!!
And what about OKC and Dallas?? Temp today in Oklahoma City reached at least 110, and TWC is predicting 112 for Thursday and 111 for Friday. Just under 110 for DFW. THOSE POOR PEOPLE!!
There was a storm that just sat in one place in eastern Wythe County last evening..4-5 hours. Somebody over there had to get 2+ inches.
Just had to file a claim for the hail damage to my new cars – pock marks are everywhere. It was about as painful to watch as it was to be underneath it!
…Before ya know it that first Canadian front will be here with that first punch of 30′s at night.. Really… Four or Five weeks it’ll be here. I CANT WAIT
Rick, that same storm was to my west, we got a measly 0.03″, but a pretty light show.
Quote from the emergency advisories from the NWS heard on TV yesterday afternoon:
“…..lightning is one of nature’s number one killers…..”
You would think that Yogi Berra would be too busy during baseball season to record NWS advisories.
Two beans in the jar as August 2nd was again foggy just like the 1st. Despite the fog, my wife and I saw the full grown black bear that crossed the road about a mile west of the Chapel as we headed toward Abingdon. Such a beautiful sight.
Talk up the cold Zach, I’m ready for it! About 12 years ago, we had 31 on Sept 5 in Wytheville.
JP…
I always get a kick out of our local transcribed
warnings here….”these storms could contain large hail and dangerous lightning.” To be honest.and ive been up really cozy with a lot of Texas lightning..im not sure how to differentiate dangerous vs non dangerous static discharges.
@Doug…that Chicago or just north of is where the jetstream has been carrying the weather this summer..thats been rotating around the central US high pressure. Some days its been quite an issue routing airplanes from there to NYC..Im ready for a pattern change…109F in a few places yesterday.but no record.
Forecast to possibly make 110F today…low of 80…
we have had quite a few nights not below 80F.
Thanks Kevin for the post you made yesterday evening. It hit at the heart of my post. Urbanization, concrete, asphalt can explain the reason for this July record and[IMO] is the only reason the record was set.
Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed and will move into the Caribbean in the next 24-36 hours. By early next week, it may be a hurricane threatening Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Kevin/WD..im not altogether sold on the theory..
Roanoke is a fairly small sample to hang this on.
You may want to find similar sized cities maybe throughout
the country to help validate this.
Maybe gathering , say 10 cities of varying
sizes…place temp sensors in a periphery around those areas..
and maybe calibrating accordingly…maybe we could establish
daily highs based on periphery averages rather than one lone spot
normally at a cities airport. Too..wherever the sensor is located you have to account for a light wind drift possibly funneling warm air over it. (light southern wind over Valley View.) Just my thoughts.
The “urban heat island” theory about Roanoke’s rise in summer low temperatures fits primarily because of timeframe — about 1987 or so seems to be the pivot point, and that’s when pastures and fields started becoming malls and parking lots in several locations around the airport.
It certainly is nothing close to conclusive, though there are studies involving numerous other U.S. cities detailing urban heat island effects (some not just related to temperature). There are also studies concluding that low temperatures are on the rise in general across the nation, which could imply larger climatic factors at work.
It would take a study beyond my expertise and time availability to make any sweeping conclusions. But the trend is obvious from the stats at Roanoke’s official weather site.
Agree with you entirely Joe about how nice it would be to have a tighter weather data grid that could truly be “apples to apples” comparison, with equipment constructed and situated to precise standards. But considering likely NOAA budget cuts, I think we’ll be seeing less data in the future, not more.
Zach,I hope your right about those cooler temps,but up here in Northern Fauquier County we don`t see 30`s until mid October normally!Another day in the hot humid 90`s,but what else is new for this summer!Stay cool all.Mike!
BTW … Roanoke officially reported a “trace” of snowfall on Thursday. Why is that? Hail, sleet, and snow are all one category on the official weather records. Strange, I know, but it’s the way it’s listed.
I think you are probably right Kevin..
It would be nice though to get a few test cases
out there on a limited basis to see if it warrented
more study and instrumentation for more data gathering.
This discussion reminds me of other data grids…the ones
that started out over the oceans…Marsden Squares…
Maybe whats old is new again.
Abstract from upenn.edu …
Abstract: Marine data (especially in meteorology) are often grouped geographically using a set of numbered 10degrees latitude-longitude squares known as Marsden squares, which are usually attributed to William Marsden, Secretary of the Admiralty (and Vice-President of The Royal Society), who supposedly invented them early in the nineteenth century. Available records suggest that this system was in fact probably invented by Robert FitzRoy soon after his appointment as head of the British Meteorological Office in 1854. FitzRoy felt that early English work in marine meteorology was being ignored, notably by the American Matthew Fontaine Maury, who had pioneered the collecting of marine meteorological data from ship’s logs. A desire to undo this wrong led FitzRoy to emphasize earlier (though abortive) British projects by A.B. Becher (in 1831) and by Marsden (probably in the 1780s), both of which involved grouping marine data geographically, though only over limited areas. FitzRoy’s treatment of this earlier work seems to have created, much later, the belief that Marsden had invented the system of 10degrees squares. Given both Maury’s and FitzRoy’s desire to demonstrate priority in this field, it is ironic that the first clear proposal to collect and group data from ship’s logs was made by the American (and British) natural philosopher Isaac Greenwood in 1728.
The European model keeps looking like it wants to break down the heat ridge or shove it really far west out about 7-10 days. Both 0Z and 12Z runs today develop a vortex of cooler air near the Great Lakes, definitely a late spring/early fall type feature. I’m cautious about it because the bigger and drier the heat ridge, the harder it is to dislodge.
CPC looks like it’s halfway buying into the concept.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Was able to get the edge of a storm cell to pass over us and dump “0.03″ inches of rain. I think that is it for the day.
bring it on…even if its brief visitor
from West Africa.
Im dying out here.
August cabin fever.
Probably more factors at play than just Valley View. Take Tanglewood, Towers, Roanoke Salem Plaza, Crossroads, throw in development along 220 south. Roanoke has been said to be a bowl that traps different things. Heat has to be one of them, so the more heat generated, the more trapped. Yall figure it out cause I got my own ideas. And Joe, sensors set up in the right places should read a more accurate overall temp when averaged. Good luck on floatin that idea.Also, how does winds factor in when you’re in a heat bowl. I’m sure it doesn’t help disperse the heat when there is none.
Kevin, We are taking an anniversary cruise (1st week of September) Peak of hurricane season but we crossed our fingers and are hoping for the best. Is the La Nina still supposed to strenghten to maybe dampen the hurricane formation in the Atlantic. I thought I heard about this earlier in the summer but have not heard anything lately.
Most of the things Kevin and I have talked about have taken place in the last 50 years or so and some[most] in the last 25 years. Factor in the asphalt and storm drains and a lot of water that would have soaked in the ground, ends up in the ocean.
WD, I mentioned Valley View specifically because that is the development nearest the airport that sprang up in the 1980s and would have the most impact on the temperature sensor there. And when I mean Valley View I don’t just mean the mall, but Town Square and all the restaurants/hotels/shopping centers lining the roads nearest the airport. I-581 certainly comes into play too.
Here’s another micro-climate thing locally: Snow measurement moved to WDBJ studios on Hershberger with the completion of the new studio there in 2004. The place where snow is measured is behind the studios just a stone’s throw from I-581. Generally speaking, it seems like the official Roanoke snowfall is a couple of inches less in wet snow events than measurements around most other parts of the metro area. March 1, 2009, and this past Feb. 19 come to mind immediately. It seems to not be significantly lower in dry snowfall events when temperatures are well below freezing. Gotta think I-581 highway heat plays a critical difference there when temperatures are near the freezing mark, but makes much less of an impact when temperatures are well below freezing. It can’t all be elevation related because the airport/WDBJ area is about 1100 feet, while downtown is 940 feet at its lowest.
George: It’s El Nino that’s supposed to strengthen, which historically limits hurricane activity in the Atlantic. It’s still not really made its move yet. In any event, it’s kinda hit and miss with hurricanes and cruises in September. I think a lot of cruises are pretty good about steering away from tropical threats.
Speaking of the urban heat island — on June 29, when the airport hit 104, I’m quite sure it was at least 110 down here on Campbell Avenue by the Roanoke Times building. That was the hottest I’ve ever felt since I was a 10-year-old boy running for the ice cream truck one early August day in the hottest summer of my life back in Arkansas. It was 110 back then, too.
WD…
Thats why sensors on the periphery would be suggested anyway..
In any event what light wind there would tend to disperse the heat island effect.
Kevin mentioned some time ago an “in situ” environment.
Warm air will rise with no wind…and the cool air from over or in the
greenery of the surrounding ridges will generally filter in during the evenings.
Its just my opinion but I feel that the expansiveness of the greenery and topography surrounding the airport is far more significant as a cooling factor overnight. Now I dont disagree that when you have the occasional inversion thats not the case. You also cannot overlook the cooling effect and the slow pull of the Roanoke River through the valley. Just a few thoughts.
Insofar as snow depth along 581..
You can see that on just about any road that has been exposed to
significantly above freezing temperatures for a while before snow
starts. Grassy areas may have half an inch or more before it begins to slush up on the roads. That heat was radiating before being covered for sure. You also have to factor in the hot engines and exhaust of the traffic swirling through the 581 corridor as the precip is falling. Pristine environments rarely happen in urban environments and because of that precip and temps may have less meaning from a pure scientific standpoint.
Joe, thanks for responding to my earlier comment. BTW, on this heat island thing, I think I posted a couple of comments at the end of the previous thread on this topic.
To support/endorse what joe mentioned about the weather patterns in this general area, a local (Milwaukee) tv weatherman showed the drought map for Wisconsin. It was almost too much to be believed, but I definitely believe it because I have seen all four of the following areas in the past 3 days, and it is accurate. In most of northern Wisconsin, and including Green Bay (where we went today on a day trip) no drought. All the lawns were green there and the corn looked terrific. Here in Sheboygan and down to the northern suburbs of Milwaukee, Ab. Dry. From northern suburbs of Milw. to about Racine (halfway between Milw. and the Illinois border), D1. From Racine to the Illinois border, D2. In fact, I may be off a bit, because the southernmost tier may be D3, and there may be five different swaths in the space of 150 miles. Rain came through today, but of course most of it moved west-to-east and stayed well north of Milwaukee. The regions that needed it least got some, and the areas in desperate need had to put up with a completely blind “Khan” misfiring badly again.
I know somebody who lives in Blacksburg but regularly travels to Roanoke to see his mother. He drives an old car with no A/C and says he can feel that point on I-81 when he drives out of the Roanoke heat bubble into the cooler air. I wonder if Roanoke has gotten just big enough and just sprawled enough, combined with the trapping effects of the “bowl” shaped valley, that the radiating city heat can overcome some of those natural cooling effects Joe mentions. You’d think a valley location like Roanoke would naturally be colder in radiational cooling situations — it rarely is.
Mike, I just read what you posted at 11:12 this morning, but on the previous thread. It was wonderful. In fact, it almost brought tears to my ancient eyes.
We used to live in Alexandria, VA, and had a gorgeous Golden Retriever mix named Cindy who became famous. She was “Cindy the Weather Dog” whose forecasts were broadcast on WCXR-FM’s Harris in the Morning show. She (and I think most dogs who have good ears) also could sense when a storm would be coming many minutes before it even started to cloud up ominously. In fact, she could do it many hours in advance.
I once met a meteorologist who also had dogs, and she theorized (and I agree with her) that the dog could sense a big imminent drop in barometric pressure. More in fact, most mammals probably have that ability, such as cats and cattle. Some people with severe arthritis claim to have that ability, too, and I believe them.
Hey, speaking of the tropics, after a very active June, weren’t there zero new named tropical storms in the Atlantic in July?
Saharan dust blowing over the Atlantic snuffed most of it out.
BTW Doug — I’m guessing you got 1/2 inch or less in Wednesday’s storm. Maybe a few hailstones, but worst was a bit east.
I may be in for a double dose of bad news when we return Saturday afternoon. First about the disappointing rainfall total at my house …. I noticed that RRA got just under an inch (the luckies!!). And if the hail hit Roanoke Airport area, my “buggy” may have some new “decorations” on it ….
Kevin…
Its definately worthy of study..
It may just be the right kind of locality
to get something akin to an “in situ” environment..
I think it may be time to get Tech to look into a grant.??
It may be small and compact enough to be do-able.
Doesn’t hurt to ask.
Tech will have all kinds of local and regional research studies going on in the next few years with the meteorology program spinning up. So it’s possible indeed.
Kevin…
What about this..
find 3 or 4 spots (maybe more) along the Roanoke River..
Exact same elevation along its banks..
ideally starting west of Salem..and ending maybe around Explore..
(im just wagging this…solo brainstorming.)
Maybe also have a few sensors adjacent to 581 as you mentioned.
It might be interesting to see if theres a heat loss (or no loss)
and at what rate along the slightly elevated part of the bowl (the airport area) and the places that mixing and escape may be taking place.
In other words whats the heat loss rate 30 feet above the river vs relatively static area of NE-NW Roanoke..
Might place these sensors where they will be in direct relation to seasonal prevailing winds (upwind-downwind)
With all the talk about an urban heat island in Roanoke would the PWS network on wunderground.com be of any help with this? There are at least 11 stations in and around Roanoke from what I can tell. Most are on the periphery. Granted these stations are all different makes and models equipment wise and who knows how they are mounted or located. Didn’t know if looking at data from the different sites could possibly give an idea anyway of what might be going on. Just a thought…
It can give some idea of patterns and trends, Aaron, but very likely wouldn’t meet the rigor of an in-depth scientific study.