UPDATE 9 AM, 8/4: Keeping an eye on Ernesto as stagnant, sticky summer weather continues for SW Virginia
UPDATE 9AM, 8/4: An upper-level disturbance over the Appalachians today will enhance shower and thunderstorm chances on this Saturday, with slow-moving, heavy-rain-dumping storms possible in some locations. Not an all-day rain, but more folks will get wet than Friday, especially in the Roanoke and New River valleys, which stayed mostly dry except for a small area in and around Blacksburg. Light southerly winds will continue to bring moisture into the region, and storms will increase with daytime heating. There are already showers occurring along the Interstate 77 corridor. You can follow the latest on Radar / Future Cast. Also note changes in previous update regarding depression in eastern Atlantic become Tropical Storm Florence. END UPDATE
UPDATE 12:05 AM, 8/4: We’ll keep on keeping on both with watching Ernesto churn west-northwest and with more sticky weather this weekend locally, with scattered thunderstorms, enhanced by upper-level impulses and an approaching cold front by Sunday. There are actually three tropical systems to watch — Ernesto in the Caribbean, a new tropical depression (upgraded to Tropical Storm Florence on Saturday morning) way out in the Atlantic not far west of Africa and an area of disturbed weather just east of Florida. Ernesto may well be in the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane mid to late next week. The disturbance off Florida probably won’t organize much, and the depression Florence is many days away, if it survives its trip across the ocean. END UPDATE
Just few quick notes in a stagnant dog-days weather pattern:
* Wednesday’s hailstorm did quite a bit of damage to a some car dealerships in the western part of Roanoke and in Salem (article linked here). 200 cars with $4,000 to $5,000 at one lot — that’s about a million bucks.
* Tropical Storm Ernesto (left) developed Thursday and will track into the Caribbean today. By the middle part of next week, Ernesto is projected to be a hurricane posisbly threatening to move into the Gulf of Mexico. Certainly worth watching.
* We are between heat dome high pressure in the south-central U.S. (110+ readings in Oklahoma and Texas again Thursday) and a large summer Bermuda high over the Atlantic. So we’re not really in the core of either the dry, desert-like heat from the west or the humid, sticky heat from the south and east. So our weather will continue to be very warm to hot, but not extremely hot — 80s and low 90s highs — and pretty humid (60s dew points, mostly) with scattered afternoon showers and storms. Being between these high pressure cores may allow some weak disturbances and cold fronts to enhance storms from time to time.
August 3, 2012 - 12:24 AM
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Actually, despite my name, we did get some rain on Tuesday.
I’m super excited. The first 2 mornings of August were both very foggy! Hmmmm, will the folklore pull through for us this time?
And Doppler Carol and Michael Hoback, even though I live in a valley more prone to fog, I will still be counting the days. It would be really cool if this translated well for us!
I’ve been seeing y’all post about the fog, and I know I’m late in on this conversation, but what’s the significance of it?
Michael H., Tina B. and Nick – We are 3 for 3 up here on the ridge this morning. Yep it would be really neat if it comes true. We need moisture in the ground so “s—” would be a good way for that to happen this winter.
Nate: Fogs in August = snows in winter.
If it were true, the banks of the New River would probably get 20 snows each winter while somewhere halfway up a big ridge would get 2. Doesn’t work like that.
The circled yellow area east of Florida is unlikely to develop. But the orange area just west of Africa has a pretty good chance. Seems the “Cape Verde” hurricane season, with moving westward from Africa and developing, is getting under way.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
Regarding the hail: my car was about 1 mile south of the dealership and sustained heavy damage. I suspect new cars use thinner, more malleable metal – especially on the hood and roof. Our old Tahoe with thick metal construction was parked right next to the new car and there was no damage at all.
Note the track of Diane 1955
http://ceaselesswind.com/2009/08/05/some-powerful-august-hurricanes/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4ktZPAuqs0
Doppler Carol I’m going with your count…I’m only at 2 as it wasn’t foggy this morning.
Kevin…now way to go burst our hopeful bubble!! Kidding…I know it is just an old wives tale, as they say, but we can dream can’t we? Especially after THIS summer!
Good morning. The Chapel had its third August fog this morning and no doubt we will have maybe 28 more. Guess if we count every snow flurry it may balance out. No fog in Abingdon so I guess they will get rain on that day. Now we can start getting ready for the wooly worm. Better yet, tune in next April and I tell you what winter was like. That may be the most accurate account we can get. Remember everyone, Kevin goes live this afternoon on WVTF. TGIF.
Kevin, I’ll throw in a kicker on the subject of heat build up. Observations from over 30 years of commercial snow removal, I noticed one area in the valley that was usually abnormal in snow depth. CS area was what you would expect it to be at the fringe of the valley. Sometimes a lot around 419/221 would need plowing but lots I had in the heart of Roanoke proper, would only have slush with some grassy areas coated.Again, usually fairly consistant. My contracts covered the entire valley so I saw and documented depths for averages. The one area that defied the trend was on Peters Creek Road near the intersection with Williamson Rd. you would think the snowfall would be about the same as the airport, but wasn’t. Most always it would require plowing on some lots with up to 2″ + more snow than Hershberger area. Have thought about it a lot since as the crow flys, it’s only about 1 to 2 miles away. But, it’s also NW of the airport and didn’t get the heat build up that ROA got. That has to lead back to the wind direction before and during the snow[lower temps]. Put this in your thinking jar and tell me how you see it.
Also, on the tail end of a storm when the winds brought in lake effect snow from the NW you could almost depend on getting an inch or more that required a return trip to clean again. Aggrevatin and low profit area. Being at the foot af a high ridge probably compounded this problem since it caught any moisture that was rung out by the downsloping winds.
Radar shows some concentration in a line
of thunder in eastern Ky and East Tenn..
CCFP has Convection possible this afternoon
till around sunset from Northern Shenendoah Valley
all the way to Fla..
at least some sct to broken areas…
Looks like a fairly good chance of some rain for you all.
Hoping theres still some chance for those late tomatoes.
I’d love for Ernesto…or another gift from the “Green” Cape
to come my way..we are hurtin pretty bad.
Saw the line of storms coming out of Kentucky heading this way – hope they make here. The yard is showing some “crunchy” places.
Kevin, will that mass of storms and rain that is entering southwest Virginia hold together long enough to make it into central Virginia later this evening? Could always use more rain to catch up on the drought!
I don’t think that slow-moving mass of rain and storms will make it across the region. But other storms are popping up in front of it. And the disturbance triggering that rain may be better located on Saturday to squeeze out more storms than we see today. Still hit and miss stuff.
The 77th annual Old Time Fiddler’s Convention starts monday in Galax. It always rains during Fiddlers Convention…
Blacksburg and its “Stepping Out” event are getting rained on in an isolated storm right now. Cluster of 3 storms, 1 north, 1 west and 1 south of Blacksburg — 1 to south moved north into town.
Clarkdocvet: I spent many years in my youth going to that Fiddler’s Convention and I never went to one where it didn’t rain. It is pretty much guaranteed that it will rain at least once. I just wish that rain would extend to Roanoke.
Yep, a little over half an inch in a mini cloudburst over Steppin Out. At least, it didn’t get so windy that the tents started blowing away
Severe storms and cluster showers moved through Washington Co this afternoon and evening. No severe weather in the Chapel but some heavy duty lightening and thunder and rain. My gauge measured .40″ and this give us a total of 1.00″ this week. More storms on the way tomorrow and Sunday.
I’m back after a week of driving 3,066 miles to move my Austin son to Columbus, OH. Southern route going there and northern route back, up to OH. Well, it’s really HOT in Texas. The sun just feels so intense compared to here. Did alot of sweating with all the cleaning, packing, moving. Car AC worked great however. Saw the rice fields in AR, Kevin! So I’m guessing it rained in Hokieburg yesterday and then today it rained profusely, enough for the now and then leak to appear in my bay window. I dumped out 1.8″ from my gauge tonight, guessing it had whatever rained yesterday too. It would not surprise me that it rained at least an inch in today’s storm.
I moved my mother locally this week and it was pretty miserable with our upper 80s/low 90s temperatures. Texas’ triple digits must have been awful to move in.
Latest on Ernesto and newcomer Florence from the NHC and NOAA.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Well with the summer in its final weeks now I can’t help but reflect on how every summer seems to be extremely above normal nowadays! I still don’t believe all that much in global warming since just a few years ago we had our snowiest winter ever here in central Virginia. However I do think the weather runs in cycles, so shouldn’t we be due for a cooler wetter summer soon LOL! What is your thinking on this Kevin? I mean, every summer the last 8 years has been ridiculous hot, especially the last 3.
Heres some good reading from Wiki on UHI effect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island
Poor Steppin’ Out is getting picked on. Again pop-up storms perfectly hitting Blacksburg and nowhere else in the nearby region.
2.5 inches and counting just east of BBurg
Hows the weather in Blacksburg? Contemplating going to “Stepping Out”.
Another downpour on Steppin’ out today; it seems to rain only when I am there. Only 0.35″ at the Virginia Tech airport, but 1/75″ at my house at the east edge of Blacksburg.
That’s supposed to be 1.75″
3″ just east of BBurg in total. Was at Steppin’ out for the last of the rain and a creek’s worth of water was running down one side of Main Street. Seemed like one of the longest downpours in BBurg in 6 years. Seemed like the storm by looking at radar was going to end any time then it would pick up again. East of Blacksburg storm started going South to North which is never a good thing.
Received “0.03″ inches this afternoon up here on Dry Doppler Ridge. Total for August so far “0.06″ inches.
Matt, DRBfromBB …. PLEASE!!!! send the rain over this way. I just got home from a week away (wedding in Chicago, then 4 nights in Wisconsin), and even though parts of the Roanoke valley got hit with hail and rain at least on Wed. (and perhaps on other occasions, too), my rain gauge showed NADA, ZILCH, ZIPPO, NOT A DROP!! HELPPPP!
One minor positive thing …. my car was spared from the hail at RRA parking lot.
And I tried to post a comment last night while we were staying in Racine, WIS, but even tho’ I could read comments, it would not allow me to post any.
Please see below, funnyman Kevin Myatt.
Kevin, your comment at 8:14 yesterday morning had me laughing out loud. Very funny. About the fog and the New River. “If it were true, the banks of the New River would get 20 snows each winter, while halfway up a ridge would get two ….” Love it!! If anything, the opposite would have a tiny bit better chance of happening, with the higher location getting a borderline snowfall while the New River areas would get something other than snow.
And joe, good luck with Ernesto. Seriously. I hope that it goes into the Gulf and then somehow works its way to visit your area. And OKLA, ARK, KANS, Missouri, too.
Doug, I just do not know what we are going to do with you. We sent you some rain and then you scared it off. It’s time for us to get our rain barrels out again and start catching rain for Doug and maybe for Doppler Carol. Our local weather says heavy rain is on the way by tomorrow night into Monday. Eastern KY and Buchanan and Dickenson Co are under FFW. I am back to mowing more than once a week if I want to keep up. I’ll try and send you all some more rain again. This time, catch it!!
Didn’t Floydfest get rain when it occurred? And then the festival in Grayson/Galax? And Steppin Out today in Blacksburg? I know how to end my rain woes ….. host a music event!! I will call it the COLC Music Festival.
***** COLC = Crazy Old Letter Carrier
Floydfest had 1 thunderstorm that moved through quickly — pretty easy compared to some years.
The Fiddlers Convention lasts a week in Galax. It would be unusual to go a week without at least 1 shower/storm in early August, considering its proximity to the Blue Ridge and the usual heat/humidity, let alone the occasional cold front and sometimes a tropical system.
Blacksburg area has been the ONLY rain bullseye in our region the past couple of days. Other areas have gotten rain — I was in a downpour on US220 south along Roanoke/Roanoke County line today — but near Blacksburg has gotten poured on both Saturday and Friday.
Jared: Having cold/snowy winters now and then does not preclude a warming large-scale climate. In fact, studies have linked sharp periods of increased melting Arctic ice — whatever may be causing it — to periods of Arctic Oscillation negative phase, which forces cold air farther SOUTH in winter. Makes sense if you think about — when it’s warm over the North Pole or Greenland, it buckles the jet stream farther south.
We will have a cool summer the next time the heat ridge becomes fixed on the West Coast and we are squarely in the northwest flow. Or, when the heat ridge is in the central U.S. but stays more compact and doesn’t expand eastward as much or as often.
Besides Kevin’s expert analysis, Jared, I already told the bloggers here when is the next time we will get a cool summer here in SW Virginia and also in your area ….. 2014, the summer after I retire. Perhaps even next August …. I retire 8-1-13.