New weather regime continues with normal to below normal temperatures next several days
Our new weather pattern continues with the passage of a weak cold front overnight or early Wednesday that will bring a reinforcement to the seasonal air mass in place over Southwest Virginia. As it pushes through, some showers or storms may linger or even redevelop — much of the heavier rain stayed north of the I-64 corridor Tuesday, with some isolated showers and storms elsewhere. Temperatures on Wednesday will be near seasonal norms, which are generally 80s for highs and upper 50s to mid 60s for lows, cooler to the west and warmer to the east. We may see a brief spike of relative warmth on Thursday and perhaps Friday — some highs in the low 90s possible in the Roanoke Valley south and east — before a rather strong front brings a push of Canadian air late Friday and early Saturday. Though the air is becoming modified as it advances southward into August heat, it will knock temperatures back several degrees — 50s lows, with some 40s, and mainly 70s highs, with maybe a few low 80s, still appear a good bet for the weekend. The 6-10-day Climate Prediction Center map continues to paint light blue in the western half of Virginia with darker blue in the states to the west, indicative of the new weather regime that will likely continue normal to below normal temperatures for the next week or possibly two as occasional cold fronts reinforce the existing Candian-influenced air mass and extreme heat remains over the West.
August 14, 2012 - 10:53 PM
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White roads and rooves? Why not?
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/09/10/white-washed-could-a-coat-of-paint-fight-global-warming/
So I am guessing what is in Kentucky now will be moving through Virginia later today. Am I correct in assuming this Kevin?
Forgot to mention we picked up 2 inches of rain last night here in Greene! Storms just lined up and kept going right over us! We could use some more today though, don’t mean to sound hoggish. LOL
Accu just started their snow hype for OUR winter of 2012/2013.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820
There is an upper-level disturbance moving out of Kentucky toward Virginia. It may bring some showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder, though moisture and instability are marginal. The farther west you are, the better chance you see something.
Rick: GREAT post!!!!!! Now, watch out for Doug’s reaction! He will be preparing for battle way ahead of time. Sam Oakey will make a super early appearance I can feel it! Haha. I will be so ecstatic if that comes true. It seems promising but I’m always skeptical this far out.
wdbrand: Try living in Charlottesville for 15 years. That place is a soup bowl! Many probably recall the Charlottesville/Richmond/Williamsburg weather talks I had 2 years ago during summer 2010 when it was hot here, but they were always worse off! Charlottesville is 10 times worse than Roanoke. They’re sort of in a valley with the Blue Ridge to the west and Pantops Mtn/Monticello hills/Gordonsville country side mini mtns to the east. It seems the stuff to the east got separated from the main Blue Ridge. Also, Google Maps can vouch for that too if you look up the terrain. Jared French can also support this too. Greene Co. is certainly scenic!
Anyways, all the heat and humidity get trapped in C’ville. Plus, their elevation is about 800ft. Richmond is 100 times worse. They don’t even have the foothills to keep them cool. There is urban heat to the max there. And there smack dab in central VA without any sea breeze or mtn. breeze. I love Richmond and more notable central VA terrain and tranquility, but I would hate to live there in the summer. Brutal. W’burg is close enough to the Chesapeake and Atlantic that the sea breeze is ever so slight. But that still isn’t enough. I’m very thankful for the climate here in the NRV and the RV.
Rick, if that were to verify…it would be kind of nice. I didn’t use the snow shovel all winter last year…or the rock salt. Most of our snow melted so quickly I didn’t have to shovel it…and what did stay a bit longer I just used a broom to sweep a clear path on the deck. By later in the day it was melted anyhow so shoveling still wouldn’t have been needed.
I hope accuweather is right. I want snow this winter!
What are your thoughts for weekend moisture Kevin? The local forecasts are showing a bit of everything. Will it clear up for Saturday afternoon and Sunday after the front passes or will the front linger and cause chances for rain all weekend? Thanks.
Leo Lady – I am with you on your comment above.
Looks like we are goin straight from Summer to Winter here… haha….me personally, fall is my favorite season, so I want to enjoy it for a little while….
Did someone mention snow?!
Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow LOL Can you tell I started back to work this week?
Haha. The “s” word was indeed mentioned Tina. Doug, looks like you have got your hands full. You will be bombarded with all these pro-snow comments…including this one: I LOVE SNOW!!
Snow, humbug.
I just got 0.35″ rain. Again, sorry Doug.
As we come up on the 20 year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, it seems to be remarkable in some ways. One, it was a rare Cat 5 storm on USA landfall, and I bet that was the first time that the first named storm in a given year in the Atlantic turned out to be a Cat 5. So different than this year with lots of early activity in the season.
Us snow lovers are just going to have to bind together and make this happen in the winter of 12-13. Doug is our friend but we cannot let him stop the white stuff this year. He did a good job last year but it is now our turn.
Color a little blue on a temperature map and folks start throwing around the “s” word! We are probably about 2 months away from the first flakes in the higher elevations.
Wayles: The possibility that the front could hang up just south of us, or a wave of low pressure develop along it, is something to consider. Models have been showing this off and on, mostly off. If that did happen, it would prevent us from getting to any really cool low temperatures, but the clouds and showers would cut several degrees off the highs. Very iffy right now, as it’s hard to time these upper-level waves that could spin off a low along the front.
Tropical Depression 8 has formed in the open Atlantic … probably becomes a tropical storm but stays way out to sea.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents
No more than a sprinkle here but my son in W. Salem said he got 1/4″.
Why is snowfall measured at WDBJ and all other data comes from the airport? If I understand correctly. Wind factor, maybe from landings and takeoffs?
When the Roanoke Regional Airport switched to a new automated station in 1996, snowfall measurement by ruler was ended altogether. When WDBJ built its new studio near the airport in 2004, it offered to resume the official snowfall measurement (I’ve been told that WDBJ is actually closer to the automated weather station at the airport than the airport terminal is — haven’t measured to check that out.) The years in between have been filled in by co-op measurement for some climatic records — I’m not sure of location.
I’m glad WDBJ resumed the official snowfall measurement, but I think the site is too close to I-581 and comes up 1-2 inches short of most of Roanoke during borderline temperature, wet snow situations. I don’t think it varies much when it’s in the upper 20s or colder, but if it’s hovering around 32-33, the highway heat is a little too much and the snow sticks there a little later/melts a little more. Just my opinion.
Not opinion, you know that’s jest fact. You know downtown temps run a degree or two warmer than other areas. I’ve got records to back that up dating back to the 70′s. At marginal temps, sometimes it’s only slush on the grass. And when the whole area[not often] is in the mid 20′s, it doesn’t make any difference. Classic example of a “heat island” as you say, both summer and winter.
I would consider “downtown” to be an entirely different area of Roanoke from the airport/WDBJ/Valley View area. And it runs even warmer. I’ve literally driven over a bridge out of 34-degree rain in the Roanoke Times parking lot to 32-degree light snow at a very slightly higher elevation away from the downtown buildings. June 29 on Campbell Avenue outside the R-Times building was one of the most miserably hot days I’ve ever felt, 29 years in Arkansas included. Easily 110, I think. Someone I know who lives downtown was very surprised to learn that I got 7 inches of snow on Feb. 19 at my house — thought it was 2 inches at most. May have been on what little grass there is down here (I say here because I’m at the office as I type this).
As for the WDBJ snowfall location near I-581, I think that could vary an inch more in wet snow events if it were even a few hundred yards farther away from the highway.
Excellent discussion on Washington Post’s “Capital Weather Gang” blog about El Nino and winter, in response to Accuweather’s prediction, with DC focus of course but similar true for SW Virginia.
http://tinyurl.com/8ox5o93
Not sure I quite agree with the assertion that a weak-moderate El Nino would not be as conducive for snowfall in our region. Seems like very strong El Ninos have more potential to overwhelm the pattern with warmth, a la 1997-98 (which did produce 1 huge snowfall in the NRV and westward, but was generally mild/wet). But the main point is that there is too much going on to base a winter snowfall prediction on one factor like El Nino.
Rick, thanks for posting Accuweather’s first outlook for winter. Rick-and-Nick, I am not going to argue or disagree with it. But as a word of caution, how many weather outlookers predicted that last winter was going to be so mild and relatively snowless?? Even Kevin thought it would be close to normal, perhaps a bit colder (and snowier?) than normal. My thoughts were one of the best, but the “best” on this blog was still way, way off. (I think) I mouthed off that I thought there was little chance of a 3rd straight colder than normal winter for us.
If this El Nino does get going and shows signs of sticking around past December, then I will issue my thoughts. And I bet they will be pretty close to Kevin’s.
RICK!! Please stop apologizing when you get rain! I am happy for you. I just wish some would come visit me. I have a feeling that I will continue mostly dry until Labor Day weekend, then get a lot, and will be one of the wettest spots in SW Virginia throughout the autumn. I sure do hope that I (In fact, “We”) don’t have to put up with one of those ridiculously dry Octobers which have happened about 3 times since 2000 here. If that happens even I (that’s right, the Chairman of the SHC!!!) will be wanting some snow to keep the yard alive.
Kevin, there’s more than one factor that I feel affects the I-581/I-81 corridor leading into downtown Roa. When I have time I’ll post my thoughts and observations on it based on years of personal experience, for whatever it’s worth.
wd, your years of personal experience are worth a lot!!
I remember how “accurate” Accuweather was last winter so I am personally taking their discussion of “snow” with a grain of salt.
Here is a link to last years Accuweather winter forecast if any of you want to look back at it.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-winter-20112012/55890
All that map needed was the “Little if any frozen precip” area expanded northward about 300 miles.
Maybe for us, Kevin, but look at what Accuweather predicted for last winter for the region between the Dakotas and western NY state … “worst of winter, Cold and Snow.” They were way, way off for that region, as well as for New England. Definitely an F for the entire area east of Mississippi River and north of the 36th parallel.
I should have put a smiley-face on my 10:49 p.m. comment. It was meant in jest. (And I should have said 800 miles instead of 300)
Actually, the map really busted on West Texas — record snowfall for Midland in the middle of a long-term drought!