Sluggish front continues scattered downpours on Monday; no extreme heat in sight
It looks like we can write off Tropical Storm Ernesto from having any significant effect on the United States, as it has dipped farther south and is making a westward run toward the Yucatan Peninsula, possibly never making hurricane status. It appears likely at this point that Tropical Storm Florence won’t be a factor for the states, either, as it will probably die off long before it gets close.
Monday will be yet another day of slow-moving showers and storms, dumping large amounts of rain on some localized areas while others get much less, or even nothing. The odds of getting at least something rather than absolutely nothing for any given location across Southwest Virginia have gone up because of a slowly meandering front — loosely defined as a “cold” front — that will sink southeastward into our region on this Monday and really have no clear long-term intentions of where it wants to go and what it wants to do. Ulitmately, this front will probably do what most July and early August cold fronts do, and simply wash out over the Carolinas. It will provide just enough lift and instability, combined with the abundantly thick moisture and at least some daytime heating (likely limited by cloudiness) to trigger more showers and storms on Monday. With the front washing out, it won’t clear this humidity out, and we’re likely stuck with warm but not all that hot temperatures (80s, mostly) and daily rounds of showers and storms through most of this week.
About a week out, the European model is fairly aggressive with bringing a shot of cooler, dry air south from Canada. The 12Z run depicts cooler than normal temperatures likely over a good chunk of the Midwest and East, including our region. Low-pressure troughing, or a southerly dip in the jet stream, is developing into the Great Lakes and likely to remain for several days. Whether this will be sufficient to push a significantly strong Canadian cold front all the way through the sticky, tropical-like air mass in place remains to be seen, but its presence should at least ensure that the extreme heat recently focused on the south-central states and shifting more westward this week.
August 5, 2012 - 11:40 PM
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Woohoo! I became one of the haves tonight! It rained good and steady here for nearly an hour. At times it was pretty hard. Still have no rain gauge so I don’t know how much but enough for my garden’s liking I am sure!
Doppler carol ..hope you got some too. And o am betting on fog in the AM…
I ended up with about 3/4 inch. WDBJ7 showed the Governor’s School (next door to Patrick Henry HS on Grandin Ave SW) in ROA getting 1.19 as of 11 PM.
I saw that westward movement to the core of the heat dome last week on the CPC 8-14 day outlook. On that map, it looked like the core of it would be over Utah/Nevada. Meanwhile, no 90s for ROA this week, either, it appears. Could we go 2 weeks without reaching 90 here?
A total of “0.14″ inches of rain with that line of showers. Add the rain from the other two days and we are at “0.20″ total for the month. And now no Ernesto or Florence – guess we are going to become “Dry Doppler Ridge”.
I am beginning to think that elevation has something to do with the rain not dumping here – we are too high and the moisture is gone by the time it reaches me up here. We see the rain coming on radar and then it either falls apart and goes around us and then reforms on the other side toward Amanda and that other FC.
We picked up over an inch yesterday, 1.12″ to be exact. It’s quite the reversal from last August, where for the whole month we only received 1.03″ of rain. Already through week 1 now, we’ve had 1.66″ of rain.
While most of the big deluges have missed us by just a couple of miles, we’re still eventually getting something for the trouble, and thus just barely avoiding a head-first dive into a full-fledged drought. For the year we’re still nearly 2″ short of normal, all of which has accrued since mid-May.
I got about a 1/4 inch in my gauge in Roanoke County a couple miles south of Roanoke city. I wasn’t around at the time, but it appears we mostly missed the afternoon storm that plopped 2/3 of an inch on the airport and heavy showers over much of the city. The bulk of this rain was from the evening.
Radar showing rain building east out of southern West Virginia and far southwest Virginia.
1.45″ on 7/31 3.5″ fri/sat steppin’ out, 1.6″ Sun 6.55″ since 7/31. Just east of Blacksburg in Happy Hollow.
No wonder the garden did so poorly last year with only 1″ of rain in August. This years garden is looking better, but I have had to water it on a regular basis. That 90 to 100 degree hot spell was rough on it.
I hope the European model is on to something. However, this summer has taught me to appreciate the normal summer for SW Va, and I can live with just having normal if it keeps us from getting the extreme heat back. A little less humidity might make a world of difference too.
We’ve had some light rain and sprinkles on and off through the day today. Nothing really notable, but it’s forced the development of storms out of the NRV thus far.
Cloudiness is really making daytime heating a minor factor in storm development today.
Here’s a change……..the CPC has the heat moving to the east and temps going normal over the plains in the 8-14 day outlook. The center of the nations stays dry, but some kind of pattern change is beginning to happen.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Just saw that … strange how the heat jumps all the way from the west coast in 6-10 day to east in 8-14 day.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Reading the discussion, this shift is based on the CPC’s expectation of the collapse of both the central U.S. high pressure system (which would be a major development) and the Great Lakes/Northeast U.S. trough after this week.
Probabilities of above the normal aren’t that high for the East — second lightest shade is 40 percent.
And then there’s this part at the end of the CPC discussion:
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS
So don’t be surprised if the 8-14-day forecast keeps shifting around some.
KM, what is the word limit/length of post/time limit to post?
A nothing sort of day weather-wise today. I kinda wish I had been on the big walking route today, because the weather was fairly benign for it ….. just some sprinkles. I have to do it on Wednesday, almost certainly, and now WDBJ7 has bumped up the expected high from 85 to 89. Warmest day this week, according to them. And because our post office is so incredibly short-handed, I will have to work Thursday, too …. my scheduled day off.
Channel 7 blew the forecast for the rain chances in ROA big time, as far as I am concerned. 60%. I don’t count a “trace” as rain. I became very skeptical of the high chances of getting a real shower or storm by late morning, when the sun continued to be missing in action. As KM pointed out above.
Hey, wd and Carol, how are your homesteads looking? Pretty durn dry and brown, I bet. Like most of my back yard …. still (although it looks better today).
wd, I am curious. What triggered your 6:40 PM comment/question?
Probability of precipitation…
From Wiki,,,
U.S. usageIn U.S. weather forecasting, POP is the probability that more than 1/100th of an inch of precipitation will fall in a single spot, averaged over the forecast area.[1] For instance, if there is a 100% probability of rain covering one side of a city, and a 0% probability of rain on the other side of the city, the POP would be 50%. A 50% chance of a rainstorm covering the entire city would also lead to a POP of 50%.
Florence track is a bit more favorable to
give some needed rain to CONUS..
Her track so far better than 5 degrees further north
and 10 degrees by the time abeam Puerto Rico..
Hoping for just enough right curve vs left curve of Ernesto.
So far a pretty good right curve expected.
Ernesto forecast to dwindle over interior Southern Mexico
after crossing the Yucatan.
The yard is brown and crunchy here but with collecting rain water earlier in the season, we are able to water the garden and of course it is mulched. The dust on the dirt road is thick. Could use a tropical depression at this end of the county. Let it rain, let it rain.
I spent some time checking the internet for early 12/13 winter outlooks. At this point, they run the whole gammit, but there might be a slight lean toward cold and snowy here in the mid-Atlanic.
I consider the summer contest over and done (we ain’t gonna beat 104)……no, I did not come close to winning, so I’m focussed on the rest of the year.
And here’s what Accuweather thinks will happen nationally in the Fall.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-2012-fall-forecast/68844
wd: There is no regularly enforced word limit/length limit on comments. I’m not sure how long it takes the program to “time out” when someone is posting because I have a bit different format for posting. Perhaps I could ask.
Joe: Looks like Florence got decommissioned today.
Rick, thanks for posting the link to Accuweather’s outlook. By the way, I think you are one of the most valuable bloggers here, because you are often posting links to all kinds of useful and interesting stuff. As for me, I would amend Accuweather’s outlook a little. I would include all of Virginia in the wet regions, especially for October and NOV. I think El Nino is going to come to our rescue. Except Michael Hoback might not want a wet autumn.
Flo aint no mo..
Till early morning 8/10 Florencxe 25kts G30
Early am 11th dissipated…
at least some clouds for someone maybe..
If just a passing ship.
Wandering cells got close here today..but never
close enough to hear the thunder.
Even peeking from behind towering CU we still made it over 100F.
Dear Fall..Please come and take home your hot tempered child from vacation.
Nice compact mass of cells off Africa though firing on
the satellite view…30W 10N …
Lets watch.
Got some much needed rain as I was one of the homes that got hammered this weekend on the east side of Blacksburg!!! The North Fork of the Roanoke River got very rough for a bit. First time in a while.
I have had foggy mornings on all 6 days!!! Doppler Carol, Michael Hoback, TinaB, start celebrating!!! Of course, very prematurely!
I feel that this summer has gotten a bit of an unfair rep. 28 days of June were beautiful. 2 weeks in July were okay (the wedge week in the middle and the last one with rain chances and cooler temps). And so far, this August has felt nice. The mornings down here in the valley and even in Blacksburg have felt nice since it rains overnight and cools the air. The days are humid but the cloud cover makes it feel cooler, almost giving it that damp easterly component. Overall, aside from the derecho (and my 6 day power outage during the hottest part of the summer!!!!!!!!) and the 12 day stretch of incredible heat, this summer has been a good one weather wise considering the last two. This one may turn out close to normal depending on what August does. What a shame that June had to finish out extreme. If it didn’t, June’s average would have been remarkably cool.
Saw that, Joe. Did a double-take wondering if it was Florence, but it’s a new system. Looks like a good candidate to become Gordon.
Nick…I’m going with YOUR count. Although you will likely get snow and I won’t. We seem to be in a hole here. I blame it on the Smith Station Landfill that is not too far from us. Ha!
Foggy morning #3 here, although it was not thick at all down at my elevation it was heavy up on the mountain! The rain we got the other day was a great relief for our garden and grass but didn’t do much for the creek flow.