UPDATE 10 AM, 8/10: Some risk of severe storms this afternoon/evening as front presses eastward
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UPDATE 10AM: A cold front is draped this morning across central Kentucky, with showers and storms ahead of it in West Virginia, eastern Kentucky and the far southwest corner of Virginia. As sunshine builds heating (and therefore atmospheric instability) and moisture from Thursday’s storms evaporates to add to the already thick moisture, ongoing showers and storms may intensify and new storms are expected to develop, some in clusters. Heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail are possible in stronger storms this afternoon and early evening, with a few possibly become severe (localized 58+ mph winds and/or 1-inch hail). A punch of somewhat cooler and subtantially drier will follow the front for Saturday and Sunday. Sunday morning will be the coolest point, with widespread lows in the 50s to low 60s — perhaps some upper 40s at higher elevations and protected valleys that are typically cooler. END UPDATE
UPDATE 11PM: An area of moderate to heavy rain with some embedded storms is poised to move into the Roanoke Valley from the south-southwest in the next 15 to 30 minutes, and it may last an hour or two. A storm with vivid lightning and heavy rain passed through Blacksburg in the last hour, and more heavy rain appears to be spreading into that area from the south. Beware of ponding water on roads and lightning strikes if you’re out and about late this evening or in the wee hours of Friday morning. END UPDATE
A batch of storms with an upper-level disturbance swinging northeastward out of Tennessee and Kentucky is moving into Southwest Virginia this evening, with some heavy rain and a few severe weather reports already noted west of Interstate 77. The storms are losing steam as they move northeastward, but some showers and storms likely move into parts of the New River Valley in the next couple of hours, and Roanoke may yet see some rain from this before it slowly dwindles overnight. Some smaller storms may also continue to develop ahead of the larger rain area. The line of storms up toward Ohio and northern Kentucky marks the cold front that will push into our region Friday, likely firing another round of storms, some of which may be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has Southwest Virginia west of Roanoke in a slight risk of severe weather this evening, and most of Virginia on Friday. Two big keys on just how severe the storms could be for Southwest Virginia are (1) how much sunshine can warm the air, and therefore further destabilize it, through any debris cloudiness we have Friday morning from overnight activity, and (2) what time of day the front arrives. An earlier arrival of the front through a more cloudy atmosphere may limit severe storm potential in Southwest Virginia; the longer the atmosphere can cook in daytime heating Friday before the front arrives will ratchet up our storm threat. I’m a leaning a bit toward this being mainly an east-of-the-Blue Ridge severe weather threat for Friday, but enough ingredients — especially thick moisture and a strong source of atmospheric lift with the front — are in place that the Roanoke and New River valleys westward should keep an eye to the sky for the possibility of strong to severe storms Friday, perhaps into Friday evening. Localized damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat, with also some threat of quarter-sized hail. An areawide derecho-type event is not expected, nor is a high-end tornado threat, with the best wind dynamics that could give storms a spin expected to stay well 
north of us. Heavy, briefly flooding rain may also occur in some storms that are slow movers, particularly those that may develop out ahead of whatever squall line accompanies the front.
The front will bring the coolest shot of air we’ve seen since June, with many lows in the 50s by Sunday morning. Roanoke has not had a low below 64 since June 28, and Sunday’s low behind the front is expected to be close to 60. Normal summertime temperatures recover by early next week, but extreme heat above 95 is nowhere on the horizon. I think we’re done with triple-digit stuff this summer in the Roanoke area.
Meanwhile, with Tropical Storm Ernesto now ashore in Mexico, the National Hurricane Center is tracking three potential tropical systems in the Atlantic – the remnants of Florence, Tropical Depression 7 and a new wave emerging from Africa. All are days away from any potential impact on the U.S. Tropical Depression 7 may well become Tropical Storm Gordon in the next day or two and track into the Caribbean, similar to Ernesto.
August 9, 2012 - 7:20 PM
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Gee, somehow that TWC hourly forecast did not verify, and shows no signs of verifying for at least several hours. Why am I / are we not surprised? Meanwhile, the invasion of rain is approaching the area that I once called the Fenway Park Left Field Wall of SW Virginia …. the Wytheville area. Certainly some spots east of I-77 will get rain this evening ….. but areas east of Christiansburg Mountain?? I hope so, but bet not, at least for SW Roanoke County.
Well, now there may be some action, at least within a few miles of us. Just took the furry beast out, and it looked and felt like rain. Heard one rumble of thunder. Especially looking threatening to our SE. Sure enough, a small cell is working its way North (NNE?) through Franklin County and may be about to reach Clearbrook soon. But that means no rain for us. Just heard another soft rumble of thunder.
Strong cell moving north out of Franklin County into southern Roanoke County now.
KM, where are you right now? Your home might get a brief shower.
Missed me and CS also. Garden City bound. SW to NE and off to our SE.
I was on dinner break and ended up in Tanglewood Mall parking lot watching wind-swept downpours. My wife says it was pouring at my house, too.
Even though radar shows shades of green going right over us – nary a drop here on Doppler Ridge. Maybe the strong cell coming out of the southern end of the county will hold together and make it to us. Fingers crossed!
I’ve lost all hope on tonight’s rain.. and in fact, lost most hope for tomorrow. Between the split and the Blue Ridge wall, I think my yard will officially dry up this weekend. I’ll be surprised to get two tenths. We’ll see what happens, but it doesn’t look good for the home team.
I have 0.50″ so far this evening, with more coming my way from the south. The lawn mower will be running again on Saturday.
Wow, just saw this from the CPC. Talk about a pattern change. The great plains with below normal temps and above normal precip???!!!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Matt, glad to see your comment. WHERE DO YOU LIVE?? You can do what a few of us do and add a brief description of your location after your name, above the space asking us to provide our (confidential) e-mail address. Then irritating bloggers like me won’t be bugging you for it. I am hopeful like the Doppler Gal that the blob in southern Floyd will hit her and me (and if it does, it will almost certainly get Mr. Brand’s vegetable garden, too).
If both you and I get totally dry-slotted by the end of this tomorrow night, you and I can engage in a crying contest ….. :>)
Actually, Rick, I met a very nice couple on the golf course in Wisconsin from Minneapolis, and they told me that their region is pretty wet, plenty of rains. joe referred to this last week, saying that the whole pattern of rains has been in Minn. and northern Wisconsin. I commented last week about the really rare circumstances is Wisconsin …. Green Bay and most of northern Wisconsin are not even “abnormally dry,” while the southern 20 miles or so of the Badger State were in D3. It is only about 150 miles from the Illinois border to Green Bay.
Hearing thunder off in the distance – under a severe thunderstorm watch till around 10:45 tonight. Whoa – it just started pouring here. Let’s see how much accumulates in the rain gauge!
Latest radar convinces me that Floyd, Franklin and Roanoke counties are not done tonight, with storms building to south and moving NNE, basically up US 221 corridor. Blacksburg/Christiansburg area will soon be getting a small but heavy storm cell, too. Nothing severe right now, just heavy rain and maybe some locally 40ish mph gusty winds.
Doppler Carol: Actually what you are under is a Special Weather Statement for strong storms … a notch or two below a severe thunderstorm warning.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ017&warncounty=VAC063&firewxzone=VAZ017&local_place1=&product1=Special+Weather+Statement
@ 10:15 little Boomer over Peppers Ferry near Mall, and Merrimac . Not much rain.
Friend in Big Stone Gap, Lee Co swears he got 4″ about dusk tonight. Seems like a lot. Say Clich River nearing flood stage.
Got 0.5″ from the storm in Woodbine area about 10:20. Lots of vivid lightning. Another storm downwind now as Dish TV just lost all signal again.
Ahh yes…headed out to the Fiddlers convention tonight and here came the rain!! Heavy showers and some close by lightening strikes to scare the crowd a little. Hope this all passes by earlier than expected tomorrow,and leaves the rest of the weekend rain free for the pickers…
Midway between Callaway and Rocky Mount, Franklin County, high winds, heavy rain, lightning right now.
It’s 11 PM, and do you know where your rainfall is? Yep. Here. YAY. And Yay for the three amigos, Doppler Carol, wd, and me.
Kevin, I just was so excited to see and hear the rain, that I got confused about the type of alert I was under. It is still raining and we have “0.36″ inches so far. I am so ecstatic that it is finally raining here – this ranks right up there with a good ole snowstorm in the winter. Yahoo!!! Let it rain.
Congrats, DC!! I am not going to check my gauge until morning. Still raining here a bit.
Yay for rain for DC! I’m surprised your total isn’t higher, just by what I’ve seen of the radar. But I’m sure you’ll take it.
Still raining here, but I’ve been on the side of the county that’s gotten a tad less, I think. We didn’t get the earlier storm that blew through around 8ish.
I’m going to remember from now on that when Kevin says “I’m interested to see…” it’s totally going to storm. Ha. To which I should note that although I love following the Blog and the weather, I’m not the biggest fan of thunderstorms.
Heavy rain and t-storms in the mountains of WV along I-77 this evening driving back from Ohio (where there were intense t-storms in the morning.) Stressful driving but lightning in the mountains is pretty awesome looking. I hit heavy rain in Giles/Montgomery Co. line on 460 close to midnight. Came home to the bay window leak (again!) and this time it was bad. I emptied out 1″ from the rain gauge. At least my side of Hokieburg has had enough rain for awhile.
Disappointing news for me … only about 0.15 inches in the gauge. Muggy and misting at dog-walk time of 5:40 A.M. Visibility down to about a mile right now.
26 mm (a little over 1″) at east edge of Blacksburg
Total rainfall from the storms last night – “0.47″ inches. I am so happy that we finally got some measurable rain. What a relief that is!
Kevin, seeing a front streaking thru west of here that if it holds will hit I think by noon. Is this just the first of a few waves?
We received 0.2 inches of rain last night in SW Montgomery County. We could really use some more. It looks like the front is coming through rather quickly this morning, before the sun has a chance to warm things up.
Line of showers moving across the coalfields and more concentration around Tazewell Co and Southern WV. Small cluster in Eastern KY. I suspect the majority of heavy rain will be east of us today. Look out Piedmeont VA and NC. Looks like they will have more chance of sunshine heating the atmosphere. Right now we are in good shape as far as moisture goes at the Chapel and grass in the yard resembles a hayfield. Guess I can mow and get a tan tomorrow.
The line of showers Matt and Michael both refer to is the leading edge of what we’re watching for with the upper-level trough digging in just ahead of the cold front, back in central Kentucky. There should be just enough daytime heating to re-intensify some of these storms as well as fire new ones this afternoon. Looks more like a localized severe weather situation rather than widespread wind damage, and chances of that will pick up as it moves eastward past the Blue Ridge into the hotter-for-longer central/eastern part of the state. So it’s a situation to be aware of, but not panic about, today. This is no 6/29.
Jason, 7/8ths” last night of rain. That makes 6″ since last Fri and 7.5″ since 7/31, just east of Blacksburg in Happy Hollow.Amazing how different parts of one county can fair.
That line fizzled awful quick. I wonder how much the thick clouds will mute the risk of storms, or even substantial rain, in the area. We got 0.11″ last night, hanging on the edge of a pretty nice light show that slipped to our east by a few miles.
Looks like front will come through mainly dry today, at least for the NRV and points west.
The line that fizzled is NOT the front, it was running ahead of it. That said, my expectations are pretty low west of the Blue Ridge. There probably will be some new activity developing along the front, and ahead of it, again as it pushes eastward during the afternoon. Perhaps even a thin squall line with the front itself.
SPC has a mesoscale discussion noting the likelihood of new storm development over far SW Va and southern WVa this afternoon with the advance of the cold front. But severe risk is being downplayed quite a bit. No watch is expected.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1732.html
Boy thats a well defined low pressure
feature just east of Chicago..
Breathe me a hint of Canada.
Some 45k tops out in Eastern Ky.SW of Huntington WV..
another to 450 east of Nashville..looks spotty so far..but the day is young…I see hints of Kevins squall feature starting to develop
ahead of front. Yall have fun…gonna go play dodge the red spots .(the captain has turned on the seat belt sign..unless you want to challenge
gravity..please heed)
I’d say their discussion is right on, except I didn’t realize the mid levels were warm and the CAPE values were low. It’s evident where the cold front is located according to the latest radar loop.
ok..shed me a few tears…
its all the precip Ill get yall!
And theres no trees in my parking lot at work.
http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/08/09/4170350/temperatures-soar-to-a-record.html#my-headlines-default
I got 1″ of rain in a storm that basically formed right over me about 4 p.m. First measurable rain since 7-28 for me. Lots of close thunder and lightning near me now at 6:46.
Around 1/4″ here in a pop-up storm. Quick too.
Wah. I am practicing for later tonight or early tomorrow morning ….. Evidently we got a few lonely raindrops while I napped between 5:15 and 6:30, but no puddles even. Other than that, zilcho today, and the outlook looks particularly lousy.
I have been watching the Weather Journal Radar off and on today and noticed quite a few of the cells in SW Va. seemed to follow 81 north. I don’t know how fast they were traveling, but it seemed to me that if you were driving under one of them you could be stuck in it for quite awhile. Were any of the cells moving fast enough to keep a car trapped in it?
As my granny would have said “nary” a drop of rain in Pulaski as of 8 pm.
The rain has now settled down. Hard rains fell along the I-81 corridor from Abingdon to Meadowview. WE had a storm in the Chapel but no floods or muddy creeks. Had .30″ tonight and .20″ last night for a total of 1/2 inch since yesterday. Ground here is plenty damp and if I am not mistaken, dog days ends tomorrow and we will dry out. Hope everyone is getting rain now.
Looks like pretty good rain headed for Doppler Carol.
We’ve only had 0.10″ so far today, but some more light stuff moving in now.
Just went and checked the level of my farm pond and it’s up at least a foot higher than it was 48 hours ago. The top of the vertical overflow pipe is completely submerged but I can’t tell by how much and water is gushing hard out of the two horizontal overflow pipes that run across the top of the berm. It’s too dark to see just how far out of it’s banks Greasy Creek has grown but when the pond is this high the creek always spreads out too.
I got 0.7″ more at around 8 p.m. for a total so far of 1.7″. Radar looking like I might get some more.
I checked the rain gauge and so far today “0.25″ inches. There might be a few more showers headed this way.
Yes, Rigel, saw a lot of rain on radar down your way. Hope you are staying dry and no flooding.
waahhhhhhhh. No more rain this evening, and a poorly organized area of showers moving through the western parts of Floyd County has close to zero % chance of making this side of Poor Mntn, methinks. Nancy did say we got a little rain, and I got about 1/10th of an inch at 6PM, bringing my 36-hour total (and weekly total since Sunday night) to a poor 1/4 inch, tops.
joe, condolences about your awful heat. Q: why do you live there? Brutal heat that puts our heat waves to shame, and sometimes brutal drought, too. And tornados at times.
Next day when ROA has at least a 30% chance of showers is Tuesday, which will be the next day (I bet) when somebody gets a nice rainstorm in the Roanoke valley, but it won’t be the neighborhood 1 mile south of the Allstate building ….
I vote to get rid of this extremely disappointing summer. At least no big heat in sight in the next 7 days in ROA according to both TWC and the NWS. I wonder if we will get a wet, cool September. Probably not.
What’s this? Two areas of showers ….. the one in western Floyd parallel and just a few miles east of I-81, and another batch in roughly the Hillsville area …. have merged and seemed to intensify (at 10:30 PM?) and are headed for Salem and the western half of Roanoke County. Doppler Gal, if you are still awake, you might get some more either now or in a few minutes. Please send some of it to the SW ROA County crybaby, too.
And congrats to you two, Rigel and Johnny of KHLX, on your plentiful rains.
Yep, still awake – lots of thunder so can’t sleep. Also heavy rain and yes, Doug, I am sending it your way. So happy for the rain up here on Doppler Ridge. Rigel and Johnny of KHLX – hope you are not flooded out.
Will check back in the morning with a rain update.
Well, I was wrong again, and this time I am happy about it. The rain DID hold together and made it past Poor Mountain. I have light rain now. Even another 0.15 inches from this would be very nice …. Goodnight, all.
Dog-walk time report. 67* but with somewhat lower “humdity” I think. I got between 0.05 and 0.10 measly inches. ……. boo That rain just before midnight could be my last one for a week.