“Summer” to end with hottest day in weeks; Isaac rains looking more likely for Labor Day
Roanoke has flirted with the 90-degree mark each of the last three days, with highs of 89, 88 and 88 on Tuesday through Thursday, respectively, but the mercury hasn’t topped the 90-degree mark since Aug. 8. That’s likely to change Friday, the last day of “meteorological summer,” which runs June 1-Aug. 31 for data convenience. We’re going to get a one-day heat spike somewhat similar to July 26 — a 98-degree day surrounded by low 90s highs on either side — though not quite as intense. Warm, dry high pressure will build overhead, and winds will slowly switch around to the west, introducing a weak downslope flow along and east of the Appalachians. Downslope winds warm up and dry out as they compress. Roanoke and points south and east will likely see low to mid 90s, with widespread mid-upper 80s in most other parts of Southwest and Western Virginia below about 3,000 feet in elevation. The one thing that could stop the heat spike in a given location would be a well-placed isolated shower or storm — that can’t entirely be ruled out, but it appears the stagnant, dry air with the high will limit shower/storm development on Friday.
Speaking of the end of summer, Labor Day marks the end of our nation’s cultural summer, which begins with Memorial Day. This Labor Day may well be similar to last Labor Day — a chance of heavy rain resulting from the inland track of a tropical system. The remnant low of Tropical Storm Lee soaked us with 2-5 inches of rain last Labor Day, with some locally heavier amounts, and a tornado that damaged a gas station at Cana in Carroll County. Fast-forward a year, and there are growing indications that what’s left of Hurricane Isaac, teaming up with a slow-moving, perhaps stalling, cold front, will rain on our Labor Day once again — including a jam-packed Lane Stadium for the Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech football game. Rain projections have slowly been increasing — now 2-3 inches forecast in our region through late Tuesday, with 7+ inches possible in the Ohio Valley — as the forecast track of Isaac’s remnant, slowly dying low has been nudged south and east. The exact point at which this remnant low is located, or whether it even exists at all, may not matter much by Monday, certainly mattering less than (1) how much of Isaac’s tropical moisture will be squeezed out by the front and disturbances moving along it and (2) how much additional moisture it can draw ahead of it on south and southeast winds before it dissipates. Unlike most tropical systems we deal with, bee-lining at us from the Gulf or Atlantic coast, effects arriving within 24-48 hours, it will probably be late Sunday before we see much impact from Isaac’s remnants, 4 or more days after landfall. Moisture will be gradually increasing, though, with chances of scattered showers and storms slowly picking up on a warm, sticky weekend with highs in the 80s to low 90s and lows in the 60s.
August 30, 2012 - 10:52 PM
RSS feed 
I haven’t had the AC on since early August but tonight when I got home – wow, the warm and humid hit me in the face. My electricity bill reflected our cool August – less than half the kwh than last August! But looks like I might need to turn the AC back on just to dry things out.
Friends in Baton Rouge have power again and doing well! But looks like we may need ponchos for the Georgia Tech game….no matter, this town is ready for football!
You can’t get the Techs together this time of year without some kind of weather mayhem.
I am delighted that you posted a new thread comment, Kevin.
First, another Griggs DTS, Driveway Toad Sighting. And this time it was the big one. Further evidence that those outlooks for the remnants of Isaac will verify, at least for my house. Who knows, maybe I will get a rare t-storm hit here tomorrow.
2nd: Do any of you have any things that you have been putting off “until the next blue moon?” Well, that happens Friday afternoon. 2nd full moon in August. Nice full moon visible right now, BTW.
Someone on prev post asked about precip totals..
Heres some good overall data for the Gulf Coast
and areas inland from the Washington Post.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-isaac-by-the-numbers/2012/08/30/665373c4-f2ab-11e1-adc6-87dfa8eff430_blog.html
National Radar returns for Isaac this morning look rather unimpressive. Not seeing 2″-3″ of rain here out of this, much less the supposed 7″ for the Ohio Valley. Seems like it may just fizzle out soon based on radar trends.
Is Lee Corso going to be in Lane Stadium again?
I’m not really expecting 2-3 inches here either, honestly — HPC has already backed off to 1-2, which seems more reasonable. By the time it gets here, it will be a tropical-enhanced frontal system.
New HPC rainfall map: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/qpf/tcqpf.php?sname=Isaac
But Mike, I have to disagree with you about it looking unimpressive on radar. My first thought was exactly the opposite when I saw radar this morning. It still has an obvious tropical-looking spin on radar in NW Arkansas, where parts of the state have gotten 4-6 inches of rain overnight. The leading mass of rain in Missouri is producing some 1-1.5 inch per hour near Jefferson City. I see little chance based on its radar appearance now that it will fizzle out soon — though inland tropical systems often pulse up and down a bit with the heaviest rain occurring at night, not the day, unlike most other weather systems. There also appears to be a substantial tornado risk in the Mississippi Valley east of the circulation center today where dry air and squalls are interspersed — daytime heating with some sun peeking through, combined with boundaries, unusual shear aloft for late August and tropical moisture may ramp up the rotation of cells.
Don’t know if 7+ will verify, but I bet some folks in Missouri and Illinois get 5+. Arkansas’ amounts have been close to forecasts.
NWS-Blacksburg forecasts right now lean toward Sunday night-Monday being the timing of most rain. Maybe the game will get a break yet. Rain may well be kind of showery rather than constant downpours.
Don’t know if Lee Corso is coming, but don’t stand near his rental car if he does.
Now the CPC has us getting in on the edge of the “fun”.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7.png
Its a balmy 93 degrees here in Greene as I type this. Cmon Canadian air me and the golf course turf need you! Be glad to see that first frost, to bad its still a few months away. I have done forgot, but is the first frost down in the NRV usually first week of October? Usually doesn’t frost here until last week of October.
Some rainfall amounts reported so far with Isaac. Interesting that they’re counting some NC amounts in the total — that was at least partly related to Isaac’s circulation, but I’m a little suprised to see those listed as a direct result of Isaac.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.php?storm=ISAAC&adnum=42&dt=2012083115&status=td
Fresh update on what I just posted above.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAHPCAT4+shtml/312056.shtml
Note that New Orleans now clocking in at 20 inches total from Isaac.
I wonder if there is any truth to the 15-inch white stripe just west of Pine Bluff on Little Rock’s storm total radar view:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/08/LRStormTotalRadar443pm0831.jpg
Roanoke high of 95 today is hottest since July 26. It is Roanoke’s 14th 95-plus day this summer. 7.5 is average. There were 18 last summer and 14 in 2010. The run of 14-18-14 95-plus days is the most over 3 summers since 1952-54 had 19, 28 and 19, respectively.
Kevin I thought I read somewhere (maybe even here?) that parts of Charleston were flooded the other day by an outflow band of Isaac.
Charleston, SC, not WV, right? There was a band of moisture that backed into the Carolinas, rotating around Isaac. It may have in fact been an outflow band. It was at least indirectly related to Isaac, so perhaps the NC amounts being included make sense. I think it was also related to a stalled front off the coast, and also one that sank south through here, too.
Kevin-Interesting reading here: http://www.midatlantichurricanes.com/BookOverview.html
Yes, that is a good book, Betsy. Check out who one of the editors is on this Amazon listing.
http://www.amazon.com/Hurricanes-Middle-Atlantic-States-Schwartz/dp/tags-on-product/0978628004
Kevin,,,I agree with the NC assessment..
I made reference to that some days back
as to being what helped to steer Isaac
more to the north..That was frontal in nature
and hugged the NC/VA border before Isaac made landfall.
There were some decent rains east of Danville into Eastern NC
but I have a hard time attributing that to Isaac…in fact
that movement was contrary to Isaacs influence.
This being the last day of August, it’s time for the fog day tallies. I think it was Doppler Carol who started this, but I thought I’d compile the data, and see if it holds true, the correlation between foggy mornings in August and snow days in the winter. Based on visual observation out my window at 0630 each day, Blacksburg had 23 mornings with fog (no, not kidding). Some mornings, fog was more dense than others, but still, there was fog each of those days.
During morning walks this month, my son and I have seen three woolly worms: One was all orange, one, half-brown, half-black, and the one today? All black. Now, the woolly worms are just starting to appear, so maybe that explains why their markings are all over the place, but if this fog/snow thing holds water, we’re in for an active winter. Has anyone else counted the foggy mornings in their area?
I can’t confirm in every case whether it was morning or not — though I would presume in August, most would be in the morning — but Blacksburg’s NWS office officially reported fog on 26 days this month and Roanoke Regional Airport reported fog on 9 days. In a winter with lots of upslope snow events on northwesterly wind that would spill over into Blacksburg more than Roanoke, that disparity wouldn’t be inconceivable.
Danville reported fog on 20 days. Does anyone really think Danville is going to get 11 more snows than Roanoke?
Norfolk has had fog on 21 days this month.
Dallas-Fort Worth of Joe fame equalled Roanoke at 9 days.
Looks like a rough winter for Miami — 13 August days with fog.
I’ve had a hard time getting my head around the fogs in August thing. All I can think of is that moisture in typically dry August might signify increased moisture in winter. But let’s give it a test. Even if you don’t report your fogs in August here, remind me in March how many you had and how many snows you got (anything that covers the ground, we’ll call a “snow”, not flurries)
I didn’t keep an accurate count of fogs here but I I think there were probably around 15 -20…depends on whether you count only the fogs at MY level or if I count fog that was on the hills surrounding me!
Isaac’s moisture is starting to bump against the front, draped across Iowa. Northern progress will slow and then stall. Getting a heavy rain band stalled just ahead of that front may be when we see some really torrential rain amounts.
New 5-day total from HPC generally has 2ish amounts in western Virginia. Pretty obvious upslope effect (or, perhaps, parallel flow from southwest) ahead of storm noted with heavier amounts extending southward in a stripe through western NC mountains.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
Kevin,,,tend to agree,,
About the only thing in common
with fog and snow is evaporative moisture.
But what evaporates in Stuart might snow on
Charlottesville.
Who in the world would have made that sort
of connection…I guess its still somewhat pervasive.
http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/wea00/wea00139.htm
Didn’t someone here say “goodbye, Isaac” two nights ago? Isaac sure is making a nuisance of himself. Maybe the person who wrote that got a ride in Dr. Emmett Brown’s DeLorean (time machine) and went into the future a few days, rather than 5 years into the past like I did ….
God bless you, August 2012. This COLC might not have been able to take another brutal summer month after those crazy days in late June and then on into July. Through Aug. 30, ROA was a -0.4 degrees and Blacksburg was -0.2. Today’s heat will bump those numbers up a few tenths, but big deal.
Jeez Kevin…missed that…wasn’t on the blog I found it on!
Still interesting reading!
Kevin..the info Ive tracked down doesnt
seem to show images that would represent 15 inch rains in Pine Bluff.
Kinda mundane video here,,
and dont be fooled by what u might think is very
regular thunder…Its the wipers of the car!!
http://pinebluff.todaysthv.com/
Betsy: I spent a good part of spring and summer 2005 editing chapters in that book, long before it went to publication. Rick Schwartz took the approach of telling people stories rather than just reciting weather facts. It is compelling reading. I collect no royalties — one-time payment helped a little with wedding expenses — so there is no self-profit in me saying that I recommend “Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States” to anyone with an interest in tropical systems that have affected this region.
This Crazy Old Letter Carrier will be purchasing a book soon about Mid-Atlantic Hurricanes. Bravo, KM.
If anything, Isaac looks more organized this evening than it did earlier today. Still has feeder bands moving thick moisture into it. Tornadoes have caused damage this afternoon just north of St. Louis. And we’re just now starting to factor in the stalled front.
There is a lot of tropical moisture being pulled northward with this that won’t show up on radar, as it’s not raining out yet. We start to see some of this moisture start to build in the atmosphere over us as early as Saturday afternoon.
Joe: A TV meteorologist in Little Rock addressed it on Twitter. Surface reports in that area are 8-9 inches. 15 is anomalous.
yes…just rounded this up..
Slightly humorous i suppose that its from KARK..
http://arkansasmatters.com/fulltext?nxd_id=580192
Feeder bands from St Louis well in to South Tx..
Joe: You’re bringing back memories posting video links from these Arkansas TV stations I grew up watching. Some of those TV meteorologists helped spark my passion for weather that led to this.
I think if you contribute to this blog, you have to be a weather geek. You have to appreciate, respect, and admire Kevin Myatt. I appreciate his not having dismissed the old-wives’ tale of the fog thing. It might be crap, but then, it might not. So, thanks, Kevin. Thank you for the “Let’s give it a test. Remind me in March.” I bought size-12 snow boots for my kid today, by the way, just in case, those old wives were right.
Time for another (probably lousy) Griggs prediction. I have a “feeling” that somehow the moisture content from Isaac will hold together well enough that dozens of locaions in SW Virginia (From Washington County along the WV border to Alleghany County, then along and including the counties that either contain I-64 or are South of it, then down US 29 to Campbell County, then SW through SML to the NC border including Henry County) will get at least 2.5 inches of rain by Thursday noon. Mostly this is just a feeling, but in part I am basing it on the time of year. I have seen it get quite wet and on occasion very wet in September here. Also, we are due for a wet September. Most of the recent Septembers have been dry, after getting deluged a few times between 1999 and 2004 or 2005.
Back in the spring, Kevin, I think you theorized that the 2nd half of this “trop-storm season” might become pretty tame, because of the increasing influence of the developing El Nino in the eastern Pacific. Do you see a dropoff in activity after Sept. 15th, say? Or do you think the recent increase in activity shows no or little signs of abating? Here it is the last day of only August, and we are already through the letter “L.”
I am absolutely a weather geek. Good comment, Vickie. I love your name, by the way.
NON-WEATHER ALERT: For some reason I tend to really like girls’ names that either begin with a V or have a V in them. Valerie, Vanessa, Velvet, Vicki, Violet, Virginia, Vivian, and of course the name of one of my first girlfriends, Beverly.
Vickie: I appreciate your words. I would say many if not most “old-wive’s tales” and weather-legends have a seed of truth within them. In many cases, the sayings have been stretched beyond whatever seed of truth they had. Sometimes it’s hard to figure out what that seed of truth is. The snows-fogs thing falls apart locally on elevation differences — more morning fog occurs in valleys than ridgetops, but more snow occurs on ridgetops than valleys. The saying was probably developed in one region of the country and has been since applied in many others. I have seen it suggested online that in some of the U.S it is just a mathematical coincidence that foggy mornings in August and winter snowfalls are usually similar in number.
Funny how that works Kevin.
Weather sometimes is like songs…it puts you
back in a place..Seasons…school starting,
and fall storms.
Its a time of reflection.
This time of year brings lots of Va memories, weather
and otherwise back to me.
Glad to help “transport” you back to the beginnings.
By the way, thanks to you, Joe, and Kevin for posting links to those rainfall maps. Joe, would you like to be called “Dallas Link-Man?” I will assume the answer is no unless you say otherwise.
Let me get back to the tropical season question. I think it will curtail quite a bit after another week or two, but that may be little more than a hunch right now. I have read some other meteorologists’ opinions on why it may tail off, perhaps even after Leslie, but haven’t focused on that much.
Kevin, please define heavy rain for me. The NWS says heavy rain starting tomorrow thru Monday night for Pulaski. Looking at the HPC maps for the weekend, heavy rain must not be what I think it is because it only shows us getting a couple of inches of rain by Tuesday. Granted they do have a disclaimer that higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms.
Beautiful cirrus shield showing up on satellite view now
..runs in an arc from western Pa over Chicago in a fine looking
outer band of Isaac moisture into Eastern Nebraska and KS .
Center of circulation still well defined over north central MO.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html
joe
The wording on NWS forecasts starting late Saturday and continuing for several days is “Some of the storms could produce heavy rain.” The operative words here are “some” and “could.” There is potential for heavy rain with an increasingly tropically moist atmosphere, but (1) not everyone will get a storm, (2) not all storms will produce heavy rain and (3) it’s possible for any given time period that no storms at all will produce heavy rain, though they “could.”
My definition of heavy rain would be anything exceeding an inch an hour. A quarter inch in 15 minutes or half an inch in 30 minutes would be the baseline for that. Not sure the weather service has a specific rate in mind here, they just want to raise awareness that some storms could produce heavy rain, and to be aware if traveling or if involved in outdoor activities.
As always, thanks Kevin. You are a gentleman and a scholar.
Vickie – loved your comments about the fogs. Guess we will just have to keep track and check back in late March to see how we did. Up here on the ridge near the Doppler, we had around 12 – some were more significant than others. I have not seen any of the wooly worms up here – yet. Yes, Kudos to Kevin for letting us jest about the fogs.
Need to check my rain totals for the month of August. I am thinking it will be a dry month. Back later with the total.
I am enjoying the chit-chat about the fogs also. I think I saw that the Nickster reported about 20 or so over in the Ellett Valley, which I can easily believe for that location. But I would bet, Doppler Gal, that you get more snowy days than he does this winter, given your elevation.
Which reminds me … how are you folks going to define and agree on “a snowy day?” If any day that has just flurries, that don’t even coat the grassy areas, count …. well, I think that is a bit extreme. How about any day that coats the ground to the extent that it covers the grass, or even most of the grass? I guess that would be an inch or 3/4 inch.