UPDATE 5:20 PM: A few showers tonight and into the weekend; early next week could turn quite rainy
UPDATE 5:20 PM: Much of the rain from earlier today went north of much of Southwest Virginia, while storms developed to the south and east. A few scattered showers remain, but it looks like they will be very spotty. Many high school football games will get in tonight with little or no rain. Rain gear is still wise just in case you’re in one of the spots that do get rain. END UPDATE
UPDATE 8:30 AM: Rain chances for later today into this evening have gone up, as the cold front has not made as much progress southeastward as earlier projected, and clusters of showers and storms now in Kentucky will affect part or all of Southwest Virginia as the day progresses. Keep track on Radar Future / Cast linked here. END UPDATE
The National Weather Service Doppler radar located in Floyd County, utilized by the weather service office in Blacksburg, will be down much of next week as it undergoes a major technology upgrade to “dual polarization.” In a nutshell, that means the radar will be emitting horizontal and vertical pulses, rather than just horizontal ones. This will enable meteorologists to more accurately view the types and amounts of precipitation that are falling, among other features. Every weather service radar nationally will eventually be upgraded — many already have, with the last ones scheduled in 2013. Link to the .pdf file here for much more on dual polarization.
The radar may well be missing some significant rainfall. There are growing indications that a wet low will work along the Gulf Coast and throw abundant oisture northward toward us — perhaps even an “overrunning” set up of warm, moist air on top of a wedge of cooler air near the surface — by early next week. Early Hydrometeorological Prediction Center forecast charts are showing 1-inch amounts to be likely in Southwest Virginia by Monday and Tuesday. In the short term, there may be some showers on Friday as a cold front pushes through, but it looks like the timing may be off (morning passage) for a lot of rain or storms, plus the main low-pressure system will be well north of us. Better chances of showers and storms (some strong) will occur the farther south and east you are, relative to the Roanoke Valley, where the front may catch afternoon heating at its peak. The front will hang up close enough to our south over the weekend that there will be at least some chance of showers, as ripples of low-pressure moving along the front may stir some up, but overall, it doesn’t look like it will be anything close to a soaker. After one more sticky day with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s on Friday, temperatures behind the front will settle back more into the upper 60s/low 70s highs and upper 40s/low 50s highs that are near norms for this time of year. If the wedge fully sets up next week, we could have a rainy, rather chilly day or two with highs much lower than currently forecast.
September 27, 2012 - 11:31 PM
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Very still this morning and muggy more like June. Bugs are everywhere . Stink bugs are numerous but not as many as 2009. Next year stink bugs are supposed to be terrible so much so that Federal Govt is looking into ways to stop them. Looking at natural predictors to slow th down.
Rain chances have gone upward for today, noted in the new blog post update, and easily seen looking at radar.
HPC map for today showing widespread .25-.50 amounts, some locally heavier.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif
Randy – please don’t say the stink bugs will be worse next year. I thought last year was bad here but this year is worse. I dread to think how bad it will be next year. I have been reading up on their life cycle and how to get rid of them.
Kevin, I am imagining with the Doppler being down, that other radars will cover for us so we can see any approaching rain this coming week. Will they let us know when it is back up and running?
Well Dopp Carol, looks like you are getting a fancy UPGRADE!
Down south and in Texas, they have to deal with fire ants which are nearly impossible to kill or remove. Stink bugs for us – their prehistoric appearance, stink potential and ability to show up on your pillow or coffee cup make them more repulsive but don’t know if they bite people. Fire ants do and if you have ever stirred up one of their hills, those ants don’t let you forget that.
Just caught up on posts from yesterday…2000 stink bugs Doug? That’s awful. I haven’t seen too many yet but they are probably still eating up all the leftover crab apples from my trees before coming in for the winter.
wd – love your posts, especially the WW crossing the road one. LeoLady – so jealous of the beach time but it’s nice to virtually enjoy that cocktail with you.
Dopp Carol – saw your new signature…does that mean you are going Bi-Polar? LOL We need to plan that blog gathering…
I will be happy to spent this snowy winter with my blog family.
We picked up a scant 0.02″ this morning, looking forward to more. We’re still 2″ dry for the year, but September has been the first month of ‘normal’ precipitation since the spring. We’ve gotten lucky with the stink bugs, only a couple in the house so far. Haven’t been around much lately, had a lot going on, but I’m with Hokie Trax on hoping for a snowy winter…
Howdy all…
Been a crazy week of navigating the globe. As Dorothy said in the Wizard of Oz, there’s no place like home. I saw the comments about the asperatus clouds. I have flown thru this cloud formation before & it’s actually a fairly smooth ride with some turbulence on top of the cloud layer.
I’ll have plenty of time this weekend to tweak on Lesson 2 of winter weather. I promised a quiz. I’ll post the quiz later so all can ponder. No prizes here just the reward of knowledge.
@Kevin: Any word on rain tomorrow? Dad is pondering driving up from the Danville area to me help out with some home repairs (in C’burg), but there’s no point if it’s going to rain.
Shower chances look minimal for Saturday at the moment, because we’ll be behind the front. Definitely will be much less chance of rain at Christiansburg than at Danville. No all-day downpour on Saturday.
Re Fire Ants…
I can sho nuff speak to that.
I lived with stink bugs when I was a kid there
but Im told they are tons more there now than
when I was a kid. I don think we have any stink bugs
around this part of Texas. I think it has to do with
the bugs needing a lot of water (i think that stink is mostly water..or maybe 50 -50 ratio of stink to water! )
Any juicy bugs have a hard time making it out here. Theres a lot of hard shelled varietys..and a lot of these gray crickets flocking around the parking lots at night soaking up the ambient heat.
As for the ants..the good thing is they dont like it inside much.
They like moving dirt out of their houses for hours on end. They have a helluva will to survive as when it floods they clump together like a huge ball and the ones on the bottom drown to keep the survivors afloat to live another day.
Another odd thing about Fire Ants is that many can get on you and you dont know it…then , when the first one decides its time to “throw darts” something like a command signal is sent at exactly the same time..and all of them light the victim up like red hot sparks.
Before I blab off on Monday with Lesson 2, here’s the weekly quiz…
1. How often is the weekly ENSO analysis updated & what day of the week does it come out on? Trick question…
2. Name 5 weather teleconnections that affect winter weather. You may use abbreviations
3. Multiple Choice, Which of the following are Characteristics of Atmospheric Blocking during the winter months in the North Atlantic?
a. Splitting of the westerly upper air flow (Jetstream) into two separate branches over a considerable longitudinal extent
b. Easterly flow to the south of the blocking ridge
c. Pronounced meridional flow both upstream and downstream of blocking ridge
d. Presence of deep troughs both upstream and downstream of blocking ridge
e. All of the above
f. None of the above
4. True or False, the MJO (Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the largest element of the intraseasonal (30–90 days) variability in the tropical atmosphere and has a direct influence on El Nino & winter weather.
5. What is the name of a meteorological phenomenon characterized by a strong, persistent flow of atmospheric moisture and associated heavy precipitation from the waters adjacent to the Hawaiian Islands and extending to any location along the Pacific coast of North America?(hint, it will make you turn upside down)
Like I said, I have no prizes to award but if Kevin wants to throw in a free prize, he can do that too. It’s his blog. This quiz will lead you into Lesson 2 on Monday.
Convective forecast for this afternoon eve looks hot for
central Va..
Bullseye forecast right now Lynchburg Roanoke
for thunderstorms over the area with tops to 39000ft.
General area for significant storms from Kingsport- Charlotte- Norfolk-DC-Charleston WV- Kingsport.
Charlottesville-PSK-GSO-Farmville area is the center
of hottest activity 4-7pm local.
Be safe yall…Ive been called in on overtime today…so I dont
know what part of the country ill be working…Ill be watching when I can.
Looks like a cell just passed over Check..
into Franklin Co..
around the Cahas area now..
(1pm Algoma time)
Hokie Trax – loved the comment about “bi-polar”. LOL! Too Funny! Maybe you and I just need to set a time to get together in B’burg and invite anyone else who would like to join us. If the NWS is open, we could go by and visit them. I will also share my story about two stink bugs and me. They do stain when squished.
Started raining here about a half hour ago. I was hurriedly out this morning planting all of my clearance sale mums so I am happy for the rain. Looks like the rain is more north of me – hope you Roanoke folks are getting the rain.
Long time reader here (though I’ve only posted maybe 3 times in the last couple of years) and I noticed the convo about stink bugs. I was hanging out with a friend in Floyd yesterday and we were discussing stink bugs, which I have never smelled and he assured me it was an offensive “spicy, acrid” smell. He then proceeded to tell me about a blog entry he had read somewhere recently about eating stink bugs. Apparently they really do taste spicy if you deep fry ‘em! My friend swore that he has now read in several places that deep fried stink bugs are a tasty snack. I couldn’t resist throwing this in to the convo
Went out to Lowes of Abingdon today and I saw more snow blowers than I have seen in several years. Do they know something we don’t know or are they like us, just hoping. Of course if we buy one it will not snow and if we leave it on the lot, we will be covered up with the white stuff. I’ll let them keep the snow blower hoping for lots of snow.
Showers/storms today sorta did the Blue Ridge jump — just a few crossing the Roanoke and New River valleys, then redeveloping to east.
Michael: I wonder if they have leftover inventory from stocking up after 2009-10 winter cleaned them out, and then having two fairly placid winters for snow.
Yep, and there should be plenty of snow shovels that’s been in storage for 2 years for the first snow this year also.
Michael…it would be interesting if u went out and asked them
specifically when they got the blowers..If they are new from the factory
that would be interesting.
They have a number of long range weather forecasters through the country
that solely work for retailers and manufacturers..
Id be interested in who it is that Lowe-s uses for their product planning.
Maybe they can be used for blowing acorns too?? Just kiddin…
DT included in that list?
1. YAY!! I got to play goof today, at a goof course right on the TENN-GA border. Clubhouse and most of the holes were in Ringgold, GA, but they had a TENN telephone number. AND, as an added bonus for this COLC, it was a nice course. Even played well, and it could have been a great round IF I COULD HAVE MADE A PUTT!! Grrrr. LOL
2. OK, Capitan Glenno, I’ll try a guess at three of the “preguntas (= questions)”. The weekly ENSO report comes out on Mondays. At least a Monday date is what appears on the report. Yo creo (I think).
Teleconnections?? What the H is a teleconnection? I googled “Weather Teleconnections” and got a l;ist of websites, but no definition. Please give a definition, and better yet, one example. You’re not talking about NAO, AO, El Nino, PNA, La Nina are you?
As for what goes along with the Atmospheric Blocking, I’ll go with b., easterly flow (of the jet stream) south of the block. During the Greenland block, the jet stream dips into the SEern USA and causes a big trough and cold weather here and sometimes extreme happiness for all of you snow lovers.
As for Madden Julian, it is the newest version of Madden pro Football video game. Just kidding. I’ll go with “True” for number 4.
By the way, it is HOT here. Upper 80s!! I wouldn’t want to deliver here for the summers. SW Virginia’s summer (Roanoke style, that is) is hot and long enough.
In case any of you care about it, tomorrow we visit the Miss. city of Vicksburg for two (possibly wet) nights, then south via the Natchez Trace road to Natchez for Monday and Tuesday.
Shannon,,,
Re the stink bugs..
Ive heard it said that dogs in particular like eating
those things.
(gotta be a “tastes like chicken” joke there somewhere)
..Ive read that its thought that the bug got here in possibly
packing crates from China or Japan…(by the way..thats thought to be how fire ants got here too.
Theres a type of parasitic wasp in China that feeds on these things ..its being considered to be brought here to go after them in 2013.
Now be ready for wasps growing to the size of crows.
…its pretty well known how fire ants got here..they came on a South American cargo ship that docked in Mobile Ala in the 1930-s
OH, one more wrong guess. Answer to #5 isn’t the Pineapple Express, is it?
Teleconnections = What the weather pattern is doing in one region affects what it is doing or going to do in another region far away.
Is it just me or has the NWS done a pretty weak job over the past 6 months when it comes to forecasting rain? I mean absolutely no rudeness or harshness in my comments. Just seems like they have been extremely liberal in their percentages of rain over the past several months, when it is clear that the chances are not as good as projected.
Am I the only one who thinks this?
Zach..
all due respect…I dont think the chances are all that vivid to the
layman any more than the forecasters before the fact.
The only time its really clear is in retrospect.
Note too..when they talk of percentages..the are not talking about chances in one exact location.
I grew up with fire ants and roaches. I don’t like stink bugs, but I will take them anyday over fireants and roaches. As kids we would run through the soy bean fields around our house and step in fire ant mounds that would come up to your knees, sometimes higher. It never failed mowing your lawn you would end up in at least one mound you did not see, and they did seem to have a knack for all waiting until everyone was ready before they lit into you.
You folks were talking about radar shadows..
Im working El Paso flights this evening..
If you look at a looping radar of far west Tx now
you-ll see a large swath of southern NM south of Roswell
thats 100 miles long and about 40 miles wide with no returns..
Its just out of range of Midland-s radar site.
Stinkbugs now the lead article on WDBJ website. Mine go down the garbage disposal. Used to release them until I heard they can bite you and destroy fruit crops.
Joe: We were in the Guadalupe Mountains of far SW Texas/SE New Mexico on our 2008 storm chase trip. Incredibly gorgeous, remote country there. Right under that radar shadow. It was a between-the-storms travel/sightseeing day, so it didn’t interfere with our efforts.
Wonderful rain for some extremely dry areas in west Texas, by the way. Pattern is starting to look El Nino-ish.
Kevin…did u try to see the Marfa Lights?
We had a brief shower this morning and an intense one tonight. Just emptied .70 out of my gauge WE were headed back to the Chapel from Chilhowie when the showers came through. Seems that eastern Washington Co and far western SMyth Co were the rainfall winners today. I am ready for my yard to no longer need mowing (since I am barred from mowing right now) but once again, I am happy for the pastures to feed my livestock into NOV.
Didn’t get as far down as Marfa, Joe. Only as far as Fort Stockton and Pecos. We did take them to the memorial at Saragosa for the killer tornado in the 80s.
Just walked the dogs and saw the fattest, longest, blackest wooly worm ever on the back porch where the toad used to hang out. It’s night time so I guess that is when the solid black woolies come out.
Have had “0.03″ inches of rain so far and a heavy mist is starting to fall. Let it rain!
Joe and Shannon, I had heard that folks in Asia ate the stink bugs but not sure how they were prepared. If they smell like cilantro curious to know if they would taste that way. We have been collecting and drowning the bugs in soapy water and then dumping them. We checked the dump pile the other day and they were all gone! Something came by and ate them! I am thinking a skunk because of the holes dug around in my flower beds and yard. I bet that skunk has an upset stomach – yuck!
New weather meme..
“The years the wooleys eat the toads
be the years it snows loads and loads”
The End