Barest hint of a storm chance Saturday as strong cold front makes its move
There isn’t much moisture, the strongest wind energy aloft will pass north of us, and surface winds blowing from the southwest down the mountain slopes will dry the air further and not be favorable to converge with the approaching cold front. For all those reasons, there isn’t much chance of storms on Saturday. But because there is a cold front moving into what will be some warm air, highs in the upper 70s and low 80s mostly across Southwest Virginia, the storm threat isn’t zero. Precipitation probabilities are running 30 percent or less, according to the National Weather Service in Blacksburg, and the Storm Prediction Center has assigned only a 5 percent chance of severe weather – meaning a 5 percent chance that a severe storm passes within 30 miles of any given point. So most likely, you are not going to see storms at your location tomorrow, but there is just a small chance a given location could see a passing shower or storm as the front moves in. The chances will be a little larger as you go east into the Piedmont, where daytime heating and moisture may be a little more. This front is going to bring in the biggest push of cold air since the spring, with lows by Monday and Tuesday mornings dipping below 40 in many locations west of Roanoke. The frost may be on the pumpkin in a few locations early in the coming week, now officially fall on every calendar, with Saturday’s vernal equinox confirming it on the astronomical charts.
September 21, 2012 - 11:42 PM
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All this talk of the artic outbreak of 1985 brings back some serious memories. I was living in the area after graduating from Emory and Henry in 1981. Saturday was the day the storm unleashed on us. We had gone to the Carter Fold in Scott Co that night for one of their weekly concerts. Left the Carter Fold in a ‘blizzard’ and creeped back home. On Sunday we awoke to seven inches of new snow and temperatures plunged that night to 25-30 below depending on whose thermometer you were reading. Tri-Cities airport dropped to an all time low of 22 below that night. Coldest weather I have ever seen in my entire 53 years. Roads (main ones included)stayed ice covered and frozen for most the the next week. I was staying with my aunt and cousin that week. I remember no matter how much the heat ran or how hot we got the wood stove, the house never felt warm for a few days.
Reports of snow tonight in northern Minnesota. 1/4 inch at Chisholm, Minn.
HokieTrax I love those warbirds! The B-25 Mitchell flew the first bombing mission against the Japanese homeland after Pearl Harbor in April 1942. Co Billy Mitchell led a group of 20 planes off of the USS Hornet to drop bombs on Japan because of Pearl Harbor. Land based bombers flying off an aircraft carrier was suicide then. Mission called a success,many crew captured and some escaped through China. USA Needed a kick in the butt then…
Duluth had a couple hours of light snow Kevin…2/100 of an inch at 6z
No doubt that clear cutting/selective/thinning, opens up the forest. Allows more sun,heat rain to reach the floor. However, that’s not what causes the chinks and chesnuts to all of a sudden to sprout. That’s caused by dozers cutting roads around and thru a mountain and exposing roots that have been dormant for 50/75 years. Opening up the canopy allows them to grow better, but not the reason why they came up all of a sudden. I’ve never seen a bush anywhere in a clear cut except on the bank alongside the road or some other area that had been exposed, as in dirt being moved.
Hokie Trax – yesterday was even more memorable at the VT Airport because Bill Overstreet was there. He is 91. He is the P 51 pilot who flew his plane under the Eiffel Tower as he was chasing a German pilot during WWII. He had some great stories to share.
Wind is really blowing up here on the ridge – have seen several butterflies flying south along with the front. And the stink bugs are out in force – have captured 526 so far this morning.
Some info on Chestnut sprouts..
I saw no data on roadcuts etc..
http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/sites/harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/files/publications/pdfs/Paillet_BulletinTorreyBotClub_1988.pdf
After I was finished with my gameday work duties, I went over to the airport to see the B-25 and P-51 up close. Very cool! They are owned by the Tri-state Warbird Museum in OH. http://www.tri-statewarbirdmuseum.org/
We got to talk to the pilot – he flies both planes. This B-25 bomber was made on the last day of WW2 so it never saw combat and never left the states, was sold as surplus. The P-51 was made from parts of other P-51s. We saw the P-51 take off for the halftime flyover. Because the cross winds were so strong, the pilot decided not to land at the VT airport afterward but fly to Roanoke which has more runway options.
I don’t know about a cold front…feels like a hot front out there, even with the breeze. A Hokie win and altogether a lovely fall day.
Autumn arrived at 10:48 or 10:49 this morning, but in more ways than one. I was out walking a short “loop” about 8:15, and I don’t remember feeling much wind. By an hour or so later, the wind had picked up and the humidity had nosedived and it felt like fall. Another gorgeous day.
A broken line of small storms has just moved past Martinsville. That’s quite likely it for the day.
Joe, you grew up around Franklin Co. You should remember when your folks cleared the woods back to fence, the chinkys always came up in the cleared ground. Don’t take everything you read on the internet as gospel. Abraham Lincoln said you couldn’t always trust what you read on the internet. And I know what I’m talking about as to why the stuff sprouts!!! Logged land, NO. Cleared land, YES!!!
Only went down to 58 this morning,high today 81.Now down to 69,Kevin when is the cold front coming through,its still warm and muggy outside?I d`ont want to cut on the A.C.!
Latest surface anlaysis shows it along I-81 corridor.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
My A/C did cut on today when we hit 83.
WD…
For the record we had no Chinquapins on our property..
What I posted was part of a scientific study.
I know how to tell the difference on the internet.
I think Ill stick with the scientific method.
..and also believe me…The land between the lakes
historically has never had that much interest in the scientific
approach.