Chance of showers nudges slowly southward toward us next few days
In the very big picture, the weather pattern is still fairly similar to what we’ve seen the last couple of weeks, with high pressure and warmer than normal temperatures along the West Coast. That is actually being pumped up even more by this powerhouse northern Pacific storm moving into Alaska– by pumped up, I mean the strong counterclockwise rotating around the low is lifting warm air even farther north into western Canada. But the downstream troughing, or jet stream winds dipping to the south on the east side of the clockwise circulating high, has flattened out quite a bit in the Eastern U.S. In fact, upper-level winds have largely become “zonal,” or west-to-east, across the southern half of the central and eastern U.S. The result is that cold fronts driven south by the high to the west are hanging up in the west-to-east flow, and only grudgingly moving south. As you can see by the progress of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center maps for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, the projected rain totals only gradually shift southward, and wash out quite a bit by the weekend as a stronger storm system develops in Texas. For Southwest Virginia, this means there will be a chance of showers and some thunderstorms each day through at least Sunday, but not a particularly large chance any particular day. Friday, for now, appears to hold the best chance of rain. High temperatures will again be muggy — mid 70s to low 80s, mostly — on Thursday before gradually pulling back into the weekend. The cold front will likely get enough of a push to clear out by early next week, bringing drier weather and temperatures to near the 70s highs/upper 40-low 50s norms for a few days.
When you see big storm systems like the one approaching Alaska, there is usually a downstream ripple effect in the future that will affect us. We may see a strong cold frontal passage toward the end of next week.
September 26, 2012 - 10:52 PM
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Here is a pic of Tuesday’s asperatus clouds from Shanon “Nurse Snow”:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/09/aperatusshannon.jpeg
Id call them Strato-medius Clausus Mammatus…
but folks would get tired and not hear the 5 day forcast.
No need to call in help on the wooly worm question. Here’s the low down. The all black and black banded ones are the elders of the tribe. When they come to a road, the solid blacks send out a scout party on young troops[the blonde and light brown ones to cross the road during the day. They are the ones we most often see. The banded ones are the offical tally keepers of how many young dumb ones gets run over. They figgered out that night time was the best time to cross for the elders and officers left. That’s why the notion of color don’t hold water as to what the weather will do. We jest don’t see the black and banded ones crossing cause it’s all night work.
And if one year you only see the black ones that only means all the young dumb ones got run over the year before and the old ones had to do their own scouting. If I find a chart of this, I’ll post it up.
I think wdbrand has something there. I think the reason the one I saw was all black had to do with the fact that our road has very little traffic. The old black one knew it was safe to cross.
The wooly worm as a weather predictor is as follows. The width of the black bands at the front and rear tell of cold weather and its duration . The smaller the bands the shorter the duration of cold. The thickness of their fur also determines cold or not so cold. Finally the direction they are traveling north or south . The ones I have seen have on fur coats and were headed south . Leo Lady our son came home from Charleston for a few days and forgot to tell me about weather In Litchfield Beach. Please forgive me and hope weather is beautiful while you are away
I see Nadine is likely to still be there a week from now. Kevin, are we getting close to a record on “life of a named storm”?
Well, there’s absolutely no doubt about it now. We are going to have a big winter, despite the OCT-DEC Weather Channel outlook. The AFWW index has hit the roof. A for Acorns, F for Fog, and WW for Wooly Worms.
Sam Oakey and I plan to spend the winter in Florida ….. in Margarita-ville.
Thanks for the post to the pic Kevin. I’ve had people say the clouds remind them of winter storm clouds.
Wd, you have me rolling laughing! That’s as good an ezplanation as any!
Rick: Still need another 11-12 days on Nadine to challenge the records — Hurricane San Siriaco in 1899 (named for Saint Cyriacas, the day Aug. 8 is named for, when it crossed Puerto Rico) lasted 28 days, and in more modern times, Hurriane Ginger in 1971 lasted 27.25 days. Nadine began Sept. 11 and is now 16 days old.
Looks like Nadine may merge with a non-tropical system in 3-5 days.
Sorry Doug, I am getting the feeling that those artic fronts are going to blast right through here on their way to Florida. You know that dampness down there feels colder that our mountain air. You may just have to go further south this year to escape the brutal winds (maybe Panama).
I don’t know about the Wooly worms, but I sure hope the stink bug population is an indicator of this winters snowfall. WOW!
Randy: You are forgiven. We are having perfect weather at the beach. Sunny, low humidity, nice breeze and not a rain drop in sight. We are getting ready to head down to sit by the ocean with a late afternoon cocktail. Back to the real world next week.
See where Check radar will be down for a week or more to update dual polarization. Care to expand on that KM?
Matt, the way it’s going with them varmits now, we would put Alaska to shame.
Matt, I was actually just about to comment on the stink bugs myself! We have them everywhere here! Maybe we should add a letter to Doug’s index: AWFFS.
The NWS-Blacksburg’s KFCX radar site in Floyd County (near Doppler Carol) is undergoing a major upgrade to the next level of radar technology. I will be writing more about dual polarization in the next couple of weeks, but the short answer is the radar will be upgraded so that it sends out vertical pulses and horizontal pulses in sync, rather than just horizontal pulses. There are many advantages to the new technology that I am still learning about, but one is that it will be much easier for meteorologists to know just by looking at radar to know if the echoes they are seeing are rain, snow, hail, sleet, or non-precipitation echoes like birds, insects or smoke. The dual polarization radar can even detect different sized raindrops or snowflakes. Many NWS radars around the country — the Blacksburg office’s turn comes up next week, when the radar will be down for a few days to a week (some of the upgrades haven’t taken a full week elsewhere).
Gotta wrench you can loan them, Doppler Carol? (Or should we call you Dual Polarization Carol, now?)
Showers/storms behaving about as expected today — lining up from far southwest corner of Virginia into West Virginia and then toward the northern tip of Virginia. We’ll see if they can edge south and east some this evening.
Thanks KM, will be looking forward to your piece. In the meantime, a quick question. In years past radar shows a dry hole over me and a lot of the valley. Nothing showing, but we’ll be getting rain or snow. Will this upgrade improve on that coverage?
Not sure, WD. You probably fall within the Poor Mountain radar shadow, a gradually widening area where the radar signal is blocked by Poor Mountain on a couple of its lowest scans. Don’t know if the dual polarization will make some amends for that or not. I visit the weather service on Monday. Will be asking many questions.
The radar from the Dec. 18, 2009, snowstorm perhaps best illustrates exactly where the Poor Mountain shadow extends, the blue streak amid all the green.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2009/12/radar645pm1218.png
Just got home the sky is getting black, can here the thunder in the background.What a warm day and a higher dew point also.Low here this morning 57 high so far near 80.My first day back after 12 days off in a row.Hey Doug Griggs enjoyed your comments at #8.Storms are almost here have a great evening all! Mike
Yep, shot rite over me looking at radar. And we’re def under the top. Hope it improves that facet, but iffen it don’t, I still got a window to look out. Never ceases to amaze me how I worked in all types of weather, and all my work was weather dependent for 40 some years without radar.
Rachel, just arrived down here in Gatlinburg for the weekend. I can tell you that your not alone in your stinkbug mess, they are horrible up our way in northern Virginia also! Wonder if a nice cold winter will help rid us of them? There have been many other species of insects that have went crazy this year also, I think it must be due to the warm winter last year.
Have been on stink bug collection this afternoon – got at least 2000 yesterday off the house – we have a yellow house and they are attracted to yellow!! We are using a shop vac with a little soapy water in it. We still can’t reach to the peaks of the house with the vac but we are getting a bunch. They are going into the nooks and crannies of your homes to escape the cold weather. Had them come in the bathroom fan exhaust last year and into the house. Put screen over the vent this spring. They are even in and around my car doors. The dogs are doing their part in helping rid the yard of stink bugs – they eat them. Of course, if they eat too many they get an upset stomach. I get nauseated when I smell cilantro now because of those pesky bugs!
So the white ball is undergoing an upgrade, huh? I just might need to go over there and supervise – LOL! At least they will get it upgraded before winter sets in.
Kevin, question for the folks at NWS in Blacksburg – What is the elevation at the top of the ball. I can use Google Earth and get the ground level elevation but just curious how tall the tower is. Also what are the measurements of just the ball. With this dual polarization, will I need a new wrench or will I need two new wrenches – for horizontal and vertical? Thanks bunches. One day I want to make a visit to the NWS there and see what goes on over there.
Here is a small bit from Savannah news outlet..
They are upgrading their Dopplers as well.
http://www.gpb.org/news/2012/09/27/technology-improves-weather-prediction
Wow!,what a line of thunderstorms started lightning at about 6:30 but it took till about 7:30 for the slow moving line of storms to hit Northern Fauquier County.Heavy rain stated here in Marshall around 7:35 and is still going strong at 8:30.It has finally slowed down some,but it is still coming down.Also had heavy rain last night as a thunderstorm lasted about 30 minutes with heavy rain and lighting!Well back to the National`s game on T.V.
Mike Emlaw, quoted in the piece Joe posted, used to work in the NWS-Blacksburg office.
The Dopplers are due to be upgraded nationally sometime in 2013. More have come before Blacksburg than will come after.
We have had a lot of stink bugs this year. I have found that a spray called Home Defense is very good at controlling them. I sprayed around my front porch and all around the door facing and the next day I killed lots of them.
Mike in Marshall, thanks for the compliment. This Crazy Old Letter Carrier appreciates it. I saw Nurse Snow’s comment at 11:32 AM and my eyes saw the phrase “had me rolling laughing” and was wondering if that referred to my comment, but then I realized she made her comment about 3 minutes after I made mine, so undoubtedly mine had not been posted here by then, Besides, I must admit mine was not all that funny, just hoped to bring a smile to a few faces.
Yes, wd, I can see that you (and a few other folks here are experts on the good ol’ wooly worms.
Speaking of stink bugs, they are in force at this motel where we are staying tonight (thankfully for one night only) about 25 miles SW of Knoxville. Tomorrow it is on to the Chattanooga Choo-Choo, where it looks extremely likely that I will be rained out of goof. Today would have been glorious, but it was a travel afternoon.
By the way, Nancy and I drove past a whole bunch of you today, from the Blacksburg/Cburg group, then Other John and a couple of others in Pulaski County, then the Rickster in Wytheville, and finally Mr. Hoback of Hobackville.
Boy, Michael H., has your recent medical emergency given you the ability to foresee epic weather conditions? Arctic cold fronts reaching all the way to Florida?? Kevin may correct me, but I think such events happen only rarely, like 3 or 4 times every ten years.
I thought about all of you as we drove down I-81. By the way, weather fans, Smyth and Washington Counties were especially green.
Hey,speaking of “los buggos stinkos,” they were not too numerous last autumn, at least at our house. They are still not too bad at Chez Griggs this year, but are starting to become more numerous. But they were pretty bad either in autumn 2009 or 2010. You folks may be on to something.
OK, the new name of the index is the AFSBWW …. SB for Stink Bugs. Of course, if this winter proves to be another dud, I may call the whole thing “BS.”
Yes Doug my Weather ESP was made even more acute with my heart episode. But on the other hand it just may be more of my usual fall delusions. Hope you have a good trip to TN and yes we have been blessed with rain here and my pastures are holding up nicely. The longer they grow, the less hay I feed. We were threatened with a storm moving out of Russell Co today but only got a sprinkle as the storms faded as they crossed the beautiful Clinch Moutains.