UPDATE 11:20 AM, 9/24: Core of early-season cold air has arrived
UPDATE 11:20 AM, 9/24: There were several lows in the 30s and some scattered frost west of Roanoke this morning, with low 40s common in the Roanoke Valley and points south and east. Tuesday morning may be almost, but not quite, as warm, before a quick warmup takes some spots into the low 80s by Wednesday afternoon. I plan a new blog post this evening.END UPDATE
UPDATE 4:05 PM, 9/23: Frost advisory issued for Monday morning west of Roanoke, including the entire New River Valley. Scattered frost may develop, particularly in sheltered valleys, where temperatures in the 30s are expected. Widespread upper 30s to mid 40s are expected for morning lows on Monday morning across Southwest Virginia. END UPDATE
We’re finally getting to the core of the colder air that has been pouring over us from Canada behind a series of cold fronts the last couple of weeks. The front will pass through Southwest Virginia on this Saturday evening — it only triggered a narrow, broken line of showers and storms to the south and east of most of the region during the afternoon, affecting the Martinsville area for a time. Sunday morning will be cool with lots of 40s and low to mid 50s, but it’s Monday morning when we are likely to get clear and calm enough for some genuinely cold readings, with mid to upper 30s expected at many sites west of Roanoke (and some in cooler valleys elsewhere), and low to mid 40s just about everywhere else. Scattered frost will be possible, especially in the colder, sheltered valleys west of Interstate 77 (perhaps a sub-freezing low inside the “crater” at Burkes Garden?) extending into West Virginia. While Monday’s lows could be 10-12 degrees below normal, they’re not close to record-challenging — Roanoke’s 34 and Blacksburg’s 22, both from 1983, will likely stand as Sept. 24 record lows. Tuesday morning may be similarly chilly, perhaps a couple degrees warmer, as we begin a gradual warmup. Highs may not top 70, possibly even in Roanoke on Sunday, and will only gradually push into the 70s through the early part of the coming week. It appears that this particular bucket of cold air from the tundra will just about be poured out, so subsequent cold fronts over the next 7-10 days are not likely to bring as much chill. Extreme summerlike warmth is also not expected, though there are some signs of warmer high pressure building eastward over the next week or two. Overall, it appears that a long period of pleasant temperatures and mostly dry days — for better and worse — will continue across Southwest Virginia into the foreseeable future.
September 22, 2012 - 6:59 PM
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My a/c is shut down. My heat is cut off. I refuse to use either with the weather we are having. Put on more or take off more.
Off to the beach early am on Sunday. Have a good week all!
Wish I could have gotten my yard overseeded before the rain on Tuesday! Starting to get late in the year for seeding, and no rain in sight. Maybe I can get it down and get some rain in October to get it going. Then just hope for a warm to normal November for it to grow in. Kevin, any outlook you can give me for the next few months of weather? To bad I don’t have irrigation at my house like we do at the golfcourse.
I think you’ll get some rain in the next few months, Jared, at least normal. And probably some warmth in October and maybe November too.
WD: I didn’t even know our A/C was still on, it just cut on unexpectedly. With a toddler, we keep the temperature in a much narrower range than we would if it were just me in the house.
Hey, Jared French, how much rain did you get on Tuesday? I hope that you received at least an inch or 1.5 inches.
Have a great week, Leo Lady.
Well, a few of us got our wish and also correctly predicted that Sept. 1st would be the last day of 2012 at RRA that would reach 90*. The most recent day at RRA to reach at least 85* was an 88 on September 7th. I bet that will be the last day of 2012 to reach at least 85*. I do believe that there will be at least a couple of more days (probably early October) when the temp reaches 80 or a few degrees more.
Brrr – 41 for the low this Sunday morning up here on the ridge and it will be colder tomorrow morning. Time to bring in some of the houseplants.
I was at 50* a few minutes ago, but I slept a lot later than usual. I was probably down to 49 about 6:50 AM. And what visibility!! I can easily see the former NORAD site on Apple Orchard Mntn, about 40 or 45 miles away.
Hey, Kevin, have you got any way to look up how cool it was at Burke’s Garden this morning?
I bet Rick will be checking in to tell us how cold it got at King’s, and maybe even clarkdocvet will be making a comment, too. Hot Springs (I think that was in the town, not at Ingall’s Field) and Lewisburg, WV are both 37* just before 8 AM
I only got down to 42, but our nearby Kings Weather Station had 38.
Tonight………..how loooow can we goooo?
The news station here said Greene only received 3/4 inch, but could have sworn I had more at the house. My Koi pond looked about 2 inches down and after the rain was over it was full again. Maybe I got more rain since we are at the base of the Blue Ridge in the western part of the county compared to the golf course, which is more toward the eastern side. LOL of course it only takes about 10 minutes to cross the whole county.
Thanks for your rainfall report, JF. And don’t underestimate how much a big difference in rainfall can occur in just a small distance. About ten years ago I was delivering mail in ROA city, but could see incredibly threatening skies toward the SW, where our home is. Only very light rain briefly at work. Sure enough, when I got home, there was 2.75 inches in the gauge, and Nancy told me that then-young Blondie had been going nuts with the extremely heavy rain and lightning. Another guy only a 1/2 mile up the road got 3.5 inches.
I see Nadine is “back” having never quite gone away. Kevin, if this becomes a hurricane again……….I’m not sure I’ve seen a tropical storm that went from hurricane to (was it depression?) back to hurricane.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145430.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
It was 47 at my house about 7:15 AM which is usually 2 degrees warmer than the airport, probably from the protected location of my outside sensor. The VT airport measured 45. A lovely day here. Yesterday, I pulled off the final 1/2 dozen cherry tomatoes from my ‘little shop of horrors’ tomato plant gone wild and cut some of it down. Will wait until after the first frost to do the rest. So when should we be expecting that first frost, Kevin?
Somebody is seeing upper 20′s tonight.
Frost Advisory issued for the early morning hours for us up here on Doppler Ridge. How low will we go?
Dewpoint lower in ROA now than Lewisburg or Blacksburg..
-2f dewpoint…looks like a definite frost for many lower places.
And wouldn’t be at all surprised to see 29 or 30f at the airport..
calm winds..and fcst no more than variable at 3 kts over night…
Used to have an old rule of thumb back when I was a junior airplane/weather whippersnapper… with clear, calm high pressure ,the 2pm dewpoint is a good gauge for that evenings overnight low.
Hey Floyd…grab a blanket and a toddy go outside and thank
fate you have the cheapest and best stadium on the East Coast tonight.
Overslept this morning and even missed Sunday School so I could not tell you how low we went but it was in the mid-40′s at 10am so I am sure we probably hit the upper 30′s. NWS giving out 36 at Abingdon in the am so I expect us to be maybe as low as 32. Will need to cover any tender flowers I do not want to lose. The air has been cool and breezy today and my late Grandmother would call it ‘airish’ today. I have to say I love this weather. My how wonderful this ole world looks after my heart set back. Gives a body a different perspective on live, love and faith.
Nice and cool this morning low 45,high today a lovely 67,might go down to the upper 30`s here in the morning.I`m loving this cool weather.
Bless you for still being with us, Michael.
Your experience reminds me of a young man I met on a vacation to New Hamp at least 20 years ago. He was in his mid-20s, serene, very calm, and had a wife and at least one child. I got to meet her and his toddler after we finished. He told me how he used to play college hockey for Providence College, but he was no “Friar (their nickname).” Used to get drunk as a skunk on the weekends, party hearty, a new girl every month if not sooner. Then he had a life-threatening heart attack that just about killed him. When he got out of the hospital, he was changed forever. Told me that from that point on, he considered every day as a gift.
Sorry for the schmaltz. But it is a true story.
joe, are you saying that you wouldn’t be surprised to see 29 or 30 at Roanoke Airport?!?! You must mean some other city …..
And who is “Floyd?” Doppler Carol?
Just went outside Joe, and nary a breeze or cloud to be seen. The DP here is fairly high[41*] and we are above the frostline, so I’ll be go to go. However, the low valleys around the foot of Bent Mt. will probably get some. As well as the top of the mountain and west. Over at my daughters this AM below the Antioch Church on Callaway rd. They might get it in the AM down on the creek also. You know where that’s at? Temp has dropped like a rock since sundown. Good recipe for frost.
Just came in from outside – currently 46 and a slight breeze. Keeping fingers crossed that it won’t frost tonight up here on the ridge.
Michael Hoback – you didn’t oversleep -it was just your body telling you need to rest.
The Roanoke airport site, in addition to whatever urban heat island issues there are, seems to hold onto some winds a little longer than other locations, and so often has slower radiational cooling. NW winds at 17 reported at 10 p.m. with temp holding at 57. It should eventually calm and the temperature fall, but it may be a few more hours.
41 in Woodlawn,planning on a possible frost here tonight…brought in the two plumeria plants I brought back from Nawlins’ last summer..
The air in the Chapel is calm and cold tonight. Temp now down to 40 and will probably continue to drop like a rock. We have covered all of our flowers, picked all the last peppers and sweet corn. The season is probably going to end a week or two early. The day was gorgeous and filled with cool breezes. It is soon time for the earth to rest and yes Doppler Carol and Doug, me too. May all rest tonight and wake to a new day tomorrow. One thing about being on sick leave, it is during my favorite time of the year and I plan to enjoy it all.
Already down to 39 at the house ! #Yee #Yee
Higher elevations got a break..
I missed it bigtime.
Plus 8c Roanoke and Lewisburg…plus 5c Hot Springs..
Something is happening I dont understand..
Frost is gonna be widely scattered if it happens at all.
Only 47 this morning up here. I do see, however at my old stomping grounds in Pembroke its a chilly 38 this morning. Wish we could get a frost here to maybe shut down some of these late summer weeds.
44.4* at 6 AM. Won’t be any frost here.
30* at 7 am in Woodlawn with scattered frost in spots…
4-5 miles wsw of fincastle 1200′
35 crisp degrees the am
Good Monday Morning from up here on Doppler Ridge – 33 was the low this morning with light scattered frost. Have been in the garden watering the leaves of the plants (basil, peas, last of the green beans) that remain.
For gardening documentation, we wrote down that the last frost we had this spring was April 24 when it got down to 31 with a light breeze – 5 months ago to the day.
Moderate frost here in Wytheville at 35. Roofs are white, and cars are crunchy. Some frost on the grass.
The nearby(few miles) Kings Weather Station had 30.6.
Thanks for the good wishes, Doug. Just came in from a long morning walk on the beach. We wore shorts but needed long sleeves. It was around 58 at 7:30 AM. We have already heard how cold all of you are. We picked a good week to “fly south” but I will be ready for snow weather when I get back.
Roanoke officially bottomed out at 41. Looks like Blacksburg NWS will be somewhere in mid 30s, judging by 37 at airport and subtracting a couple as is typically the difference in those readings.
My thermometer says 40 for a low just south of Roanoke.
Looks like scattered frost has indeed occurred in much of the frost advisory area.
I don’t have the temp (because I still haven’t replaced my remote unit!) but we definitely had frost on the roofs this morning. It didn’t look as if it formed on the grassy surfaces though. We covered our garden just in case. While I love fall and winter I’m kind of sad to see the end of gardening. We had a tiny raised bed garden with 3 tomato plants, 2 eggplants, and a basil plant (don’t even ask about the cukes…darn downy mildew!) and we still have TONS of green tomatoes. I guess fried green ‘maters will be on the menu in coming weeks. I don’t see many of them ripening now.
But I LOVE this weather otherwise! Enjoy folks!
Here you go Kevin. Maybe you can break it down in laymans terms.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/sea-surface-temperatures-reach/75759
I had frost of the roofs and my kidmobile windshield this morning. Actually had to go out and start the car to defrost it this morning. I also had to wear a coat, something I HATE to do. Something else I did that I normally NEVER do before mid-late October…..I had to turn some heat on!
Studies show the shifts in sea temps since the Holocene.
10,000 years ago…Multidecadal just means it oscillates
over many decades.
GFS hinting at some more rain towards the end of this month and the beginning of October.
Showing a weak area of low pressure developing off the coast.
http://i50.tinypic.com/34h8mcn.gif
One of the recent long-range GFS runs was hinting at upslope snow showers about Oct. 7. Certainly looks like there might be another push of cold air about that time.
Yes Kevin…
Looks like a nice burst of moisture out of the gulf around the 3rd or 4th…so far Fri 5th has a bullseye of over an inch of liquid around Asheville..dampening the amounts to half inch as it moves into SWVA..
Id hate to see the leaves go from green to the sad uni-brown overnight….but 300 hours out takes someone better with a Ouija board than me.
WDbrand Linkman!!! Thank you very muchn for the link to that Accuweather article, which was a very good one, for a change. Just facts, no hyperbole. About the extremely warm temps along the “Northeast Shelf.” I hope that Kevin checks in soon with his expert analysis of it, and what it could mean for our winter weather, if anything.
I do know one thing … if that warm water extends all the way up to Greenland and gets entrenched there, I am pretty sure that such a situation greatly INCREASES the chance of …. drum roll, please …. a negative NAO!!!
I may have to awaken Sam Oakey from his reverse hibernation and get him to help me to work on this ….. LOL.
Yes Ben, and the CPC agrees with that. Here’s the 6-10 day. The 8-14 looks about the same. Prepare to get wet.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
Check out slides #27 and #28 and see that the El Nino is already as strong as the CPC says it will get. We probably will see a more obvious El Nino split moisture flow as we get deeper into the Fall IMHO, but as far as SST’s, we only go down from here.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
P.S. It was a very cool 43* when I first checked the “ometer” at about 5:15 this A.M., and later fell to 42. The three “C”s were all in very full force. CLEAR, CALM, AND COLD. Also a “Q.” QUIET (both late last night and at Oh-dog-30). Gorgeous, serene scene. But unfortunately I couldn’t pause long to take it all in. Had to get back inside quickly, feed the senior puppy and myself, etc. and off to work.
I actually had a chance to look at my front-yard dogwood yesterday afternoon, and two things were very different about it compared to the end of August. All the leaves look perfectly healthy but have changed color, and the tree has more bright red berries than any other autumn I can remember. Absolutely loaded with them. Another dogwood close to the house has only about 1/4 as many berries.
I just looked at the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, since nobody else here (ahem!!) posted a link. In a nutshell, both maps show SW Virginia being wet!! We are in the neutral zone for temps on the 6-10, with the cold just to our west, and we are in the cold for the 8-14 day. So much for an early October warmup of any length.
Immediate slight correction …. Sw Virginia is in the neutral zone for temps on both multi-day maps.
On to the NAO. Quite negative right now (below -1) but quickly rebounding to neutral by Oct. 1. But the 14-day GFS outlook (perhaps that is what KM was looking at) shows another dip into negative numbers about Oct 6-8.
The AO is also minus right now, but headed all the way briefly to + numbers on the 7- and 10-day GFS outlooks. But the 14-day AO GFS outlook shows the AO only going to neutral, then dipping negative again a few days into (The Hunt for Red) October. :>) :>)
Warm waters in the North Atlantic can lead to high pressure systems forming over that area, diverting the jet stream southward with colder air over the eastern U.S, which can in turn form boundaries between cold and warm upon which strong low-pressure systems can form. I say “can” because, of course, so much is dependent on day-to-day atmospheric setups. Think of it as providing a fuse that can be lit if the right match is set to it, but can also remain unlit and the fuel tank unbreached if the right atmospheric setups do not present themselves.
The record low ice extent in the Arctic region may also have an impact that seems counterintuitive. Studies have linked low ice extent to strong high pressure forming over the North Pole, which can force the jet stream farther south, and slow the movement of its dips — what we call the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. This can lead to unusually far south dips of extremely cold air that move out slowly. Where exactly those dips occur, though, will be determined by other factors in the weather pattern.
If El Nino piddles out and dies, I don’t think that means the winter will be a bust. In fact, I think El Nino is a bit overrated by many snow lovers — it’s just about a 50-50 coin flip locally whether the winter is a bust or a boom with an El Nino. The ENSO neutral winters — neither La Nina or El Nino — include many winters of moderate snow and a few extreme years, like 1959-60.
Tina B…
put a few of those tomatoews in the window sill..
A few days youll be having sandwiches..
another thing ive tried here in North Texas and its really
good is sweet pickled green tomatoes..
they are fantastic on salads or as a relish on pinto beans.
Good stuff.
Thank you kind Sir, for the tutorial. I couldn’t decipher it. Only know surf fishing in shorts in late Sept. is better in warmer water.
Not necessarily for the fishing, but for the body.
Statistically, how much do the PNA, the NAO, EL Nino, and La Nina really affect winter weather in a season? I know the general trends tend to lean one way or another, but couldn’t you conceivably expect nothing and get a whopper of a snow season? Has there ever been a study on climatology predictions versus actual results? I would say so, else there wouldn’t be phenonema as “el nino / la nina”.
Had to leave home this morning at 6:45 to go with my wife and mother to a doctor appt. in Wytheville. The temp here at the Chapel was sitting on 32 degrees with plenty of frost on everything including the ground. No damage noted but we covered out plants again tonight. Was ‘airsh’ all day today. Never got out of the 60′s and it is down to 40 degrees as we speak. WCYB TV out of Bristol had a report of 28 at Tazewell. Wonder how cold it got in Burke’s Garden?
The NAO link to major East Coast snowstorms (widespread foot-plus events ) is ironclad. A very high percentage of major East Coast snowstorms have happened when the North Atlantic Oscillation is in its negative phase. El Nino/La Nina seem to tilt the odds toward certain regional climatic events but aren’t absolutely etched in stone, especially with shorter term events. PNA+/PNA- is a pretty good indicator of whether it will be a generally cold or mild during a given period of time in the winter, but the link to snow would probably be fuzzy.
You can always get that short-term setup over a window of a couple of days that defies the overall climatic patterns that dominate weeks and months. Feb. 19, 2012, was a little like that.
Judging from what I found out over the weekend by looking at what the AO was doing while a couple of epic cold spells were going on here in the USA, I would also add that from that brief sample, steeply negative AO numbers mean at least some regions of the USA (and probably Canada, of course) will get bone-chillingly cold. Don’t know if the link between a negative AO for big snow is as strong as the negative NAO/possible big snow, however.
NRV LInkMan, way to go!! With the latest EL NINO report. Instead of slides 27 and 28 (I’ll look at them in a minute), I went straight to slide 5, which shows what the latest weekly temps were in four regions of the Pacific. The 2nd one is the “Nino 3.4″ zone, and it had numbers as positive as +0.8 a few weeks ago. Now? +0.3!!! Not even within a tenth of a degree of the minimum El Nino threshold of +0.5. Who predicted this dropoff? Mr. Tolleris, about 10 days ago. He talked about the GWO and some other alphabet soup (PDO?) and how it/they were wavering back and forth, preventing El Nino from getting established. DT sure knows an awful lot about longer-term trends and how they will affect the oscillations and El Nino or La Nina. Now I’ll go look at the spaghetti graphs.
Yeah, Rick, I agree in general with you about the chances for an El Nino. The spaghetti graphs (slide 26) are not nearly as bullish of an El Nino happening at all as they had been two months ago. And the two CFS graphs are even less “optimistic” about one happening than lots of other models on slide 26.
But all you snow lovers should not be discouraged. Simply look at the comments Kevin made recently. We have a long way to go to December, which is what I consider the start of snow season here in the Roanoke valley (not including Bent Mntn and higher elevations). And the NAO may suddenly flip by then and go positive again like it did last winter, but I must admit I don’t see that happening.
If one looks at what has been happening with the NAO since July 1, each month it takes a relatively brief nosedive (and not a very big one, either) for a few days, then returns close to or all the way to neutral. Graph of the NAO looks like an upside-down ice cream cone when it happens. The inverted cone lasts about a week or so each time. Happened in mid-July, again in mid-August, and seems to be happening again now. If that pattern continues, then there may be infrequent chances for a decent or even big snowfall if the rest of the things fall in place during one of those u-d ice cream cones. That “If” is huge, referring not to the chances for snow but that the NAO will continue that pattern.
Hey, Blackwell Chapel Survivor-Man, Brent Watts of Channel 7 here in Roanoke also showed Tazewell (Tazewell Middle School, to be precise) having a low of 28* this A.M. I bet BG got down to 26 or 25, since this was a radiational cooling set-up. Tazewell is pretty close to BG, BTW. There might be something else about B. Garden here on the blog in a day or three, I think and hope.
Tazewell is going low again tonight, too. I think I saw where it was already down to 39 an hour or two ago.
So some of you had frosts this morning. I wonder when wd and I will get our first one? Sounds like wd practically never gets one, and many is the year (such as 2011) that I don’t get one until December, because there is a pretty deep gully just to the side of my property, and all the cold air sinks there, not here.
Finally reporting from Hokieburg – I had 39 at my house at 7:15 AM and the airport was 37 which is the usual difference.
Just put the Burkes Garden low temperature in my new blog post.
MH, FYI: Tazewell’s high temp was only 63* today. Did you get a little bit warmer than that? I bet ROA only hit 70 or 71.
Kevin,
I heard on the news this morning about one of our weather forecast satellites off the Atlantic being shut down from a vibration problem. Do you know specifically how this may affect us locally with our forecasts?
Merle: Answering in new thread to make sure everybody sees it. Short answer is that a couple of other satellites will cover the gap.