UPDATE 11:10 AM, 10/1: Naming winter storms? Really? Discussion as 2 days of dreary weather begins to clear out
UPDATE 11:10 AM: Comments from 10:38 a.m. (#39) on discuss The Weather Channel’s new plan to name winter storms, similar to hurricanes, a convention that will NOT be recognized or employed by Weather Journal. END UPDATE
UPDATE 10 PM, 1/1: The high temperature barely made 60 at Roanoke and only 55 at Blacksburg on a damp Monday, the coolest highs since April. Heavy showers and some storms will move through Southwest Virginia overnight and Tuesday as a low tracks to our west, dragging first a warm front through and then a “cold” front that won’t live up to its name. (Because it will bring in dry air and southwest winds that will cause as spike of warmth during the day on Wednesday). Rain amounts near an inch may occur through Tuesday evening with locally heavier amounts. The greatest atmospheric shear will be near the low in the Ohio Valley, while the greatest instability will be in somewhat warmer air to our east and southeast, so it doesn’t appear likely the two will intersect enough for much of a severe storm threat on Tuesday in Southwest Virginia. A few strong storms are possible, though, especially when, where and if there are any breaks in the clouds allowing warming. END UPDATE
UPDATE 12:15 PM, 10/1: The Doppler upgrade to dual polarity has been delayed until Wednesday, so NWS-Blacksburg radar will remain operational through rain and possible storms today and Tuesday. END UPDATE
Remember that the National Weather Service-Blacksburg’s Doppler radar site in Floyd County will be taken offline Monday for its scheduled upgrade to dual polarity technology. The Radar / Future Cast on this Web site uses data from that radar site, but neighboring radar sites will provide enough information to give at least some idea of rainfall coverage on Monday and Tuesday, though it may not perfectly reflect what is going on.
A low pressure system moving along the Gulf of Mexico, and then northeast along or just west of the spine of the Appalachians, will bring lots of Gulf moisture into our region Monday and Tuesday. The first round of it is likely to arrive Monday morning in the form of “overrunning” rainfall, as a broad area of light to moderate rain develops when moisture moves on top of cooler, drier air being forced in from the northeast. This damp “wedge” effect will keep temperatures cool, with highs possibly not topping 60 in much of Southwest Virginia, and no higher than the mid 60s anywhere. We may see a break in the rain as the overrunning area lifts northward later Monday, but showers and possibly some thunderstorms will develop as the low moves northeast and drags first a warm front northward and then a cold front eastward. Southeast winds pulling into the low will also wring out moisture as it is lifted up the mountain ridges. Tuesday is likely to be a more showery, warmer day, with maybe even a few breaks in the clouds, as we move into the “warm sector” of the storm system. There is at least some chance of strong or severe storms as the atmospheric shear (winds changing direction and/or speed with height) will be conducive, though instability will be marginal. All in all, most spots in western Virginia can expect something close to an inch of rain the next couple of days, with perhaps some heavier rain along eastern slopes of ridges and where any stronger storms or heavy showers may develop or move over the same areas Tuesday.
The rest of the week looks mostly dry with temperatures near to slightly above normal — 70s highs and upper 40s to mid 50s lows, mostly. Beyond this week, colder weather appears likely to set in.
September 30, 2012 - 11:34 PM
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Accuweather thinks Nadine will remain a named storm until at least Friday. That would give it a life of 27 days. The record will be threatened?
28 days being the record, it will come down to the technicality of Nadine having lost its named storms status for 1 day, and how the National Hurricane Center would want to classify that.
The last day that failed to make 60 at Blacksburg was April 24 and at Roanoke it was April 28. That is not a typo, being a few days longer since typically cooler Blacksburg had a high below 60 — Blacksburg was 61 on April 28 when Roanoke only hit 58.
I bring this up because temperatures aren’t going to go much of anywhere today from the current mid 50s with a rainy wedge in place. Early morning “high” was 58 at Roanoke, now 56, while Blacksburg’s airport has nosed up a bit from early morning low 50s to 55.
And the NHC has it still being a named storm on Saturday………that would be 28 days.!!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/083519.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
I’ll take the rain…still a bit over 2″ dry for the year, though, we did get some showery rain totaling 0.12″ over 3 days from Thursday through yesterday. Amazing how long-lived Nadine has been considering where its track keeps taking it.
My hubby and kids did LOTS of yard work yesterday. Hubby plugged, seeded and fertilized the grass and tilled up the garden and planted winter rye in it. The kids planted some fall mums and daisies for me too. So glad for the rain today, hopefully the plants/seeds will get a good start.
NWS has postponed radar upgrade start until Wednesday due to possibility of severe weather on Tuesday. The statement says it could be down for 12 days, but more likely 6-8.
Mid-day report from Doppler Ridge – lightly raining; 54 F and “0.14″ inches of rain so far.
Quag’s Winter Weather 101 Lesson 2 “Teleconnections & Winter Weather Forecasting”
Winner-Winner…Chicken Dinner for our favorite postal carrier & resident duffer, Doug Griggs for answering 4 out of the 5 questions on last week’s weather quiz. Outstanding & Atta-boy!!!
Before I blab away about this week’s lesson, here are the answers to Friday’s quiz:
1. Weekly on Mondays…I sort of gave that one away
2. ENSO- El Nino Southern Oscillation, NAO-North Atlantic Oscillation, AO-Artic Oscillation, PNA-Pacific/North American Oscillation, PDO-Pacific Decadal Oscillation, WPO-Western Pacific Oscillation, MJO-Madden Julian Oscillation
3. E-all the above
4. True
5. Pineapple Express
See next comment for part 2
Quag’s Winter Weather 101 Lesson 2 part 2
By now, you have probably seen on this blog & other websites discussion about weather teleconnections & how they influence our weather, especially in the winter. So what is a teleconnection?
Teleconnections are defined by the American Meteorological Society as:
• A linkage between weather changes occurring in widely separated regions of the globe.
• A significant positive or negative correlation in the fluctuations of a field at widely separated points. Most commonly applied to variability on monthly and longer timescales, the name refers to the fact that such correlations suggest that information is propagating between the distant points through the atmosphere.
Teleconnections simply put are statistical relationships between conditions in one part of the world affecting the weather in a different part of the world. The links between El Niño, La Niña & climate anomalies in other parts of the globe are indisputable, especially during strong events when the temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific is relatively large. In the words of one senior meteorologist at NOAA, “The El Niño/La Niña events are no-brainers. Their forcing on extreme weather events is well-known. The real challenge is linking the “neutral” years [years with neither an El Niño nor a La Niña] with characteristic jet stream patterns.” So, are we in a neutral phase of the ENSO? Not really. Let’s explain further.
El Niño & La Niña are not the only teleconnections that long-range forecasters consider.
Here are some of the more important teleconnections that affect winter weather forecasting…rather than go into great length about what each one is, I have provided a link for your study materials.
• PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/REPORTS/PDO/PDO_cs.htm
• PNA Pacific North American pattern http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific-North_American_teleconnection_pattern
• ENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/
• MJO Madden Julian Oscillation http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_1page_factsheet.pdf
• AO Artic Oscillation http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2011/11/14/arctic-oscillation-meet-el-ninos-cold-cousin/
• NAO North Atlantic Oscillation aka Greenland Block, perhaps the most important teleconnection for winter weather http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
Here are more reference links that will be of great help
http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~ekalnay/vandenDoolNotes2a.pdf
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/teleintro.shtml
http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/training/…/TCPR_Molteni_2012a.ppt
http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/training/meteorological_presentations/pdf/PR/Teleconnection.pdf
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
See next comment for part 3
Quag’s Winter Weather 101 Lesson 2 part 3
Today’s lesson is this. If you are a Snow Lover, this is what you want to see from the teleconnections for a snowy winter pattern:
• El Nino-weak with a trend to remain weak & stable
• MJO-progressing from phase 7 into 8 or 1
• Pineapple Express aka southern Jet Stream active across California/4 corners to southern US
• PNA-positive & trending to more positive
• EPO-negative
• AO-negative
• NAO-definitely negative & a negative west based NAO
This link below goes into greater detail of what I am trying to say & is full of great winter weather information. Please note the below link is a Powerpoint Slide Show.
http://www.abington.k12.pa.us/teachers/hurmms/MajorSnowstormChecklist/whatisamajorsnowstorm.ppt
See next comment for part 4…
Quags Winter Weather 101 Lesson 2 part 4
So where do we stand right now? Let’s get the official reports & see where the teleconnections are now & where they are headed as we get ever so close to the winter weather season:
• El Nino-weak with a trend to remain weak & stable…check. According to the CPC’s latest weekly ENSO analysis (Mr. Grigg’s fave), ENSO is now in stage 1 of transitioning to a weak El Nino & is forecast to remain weak thru the winter then eventually go back to neutral after February: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
• MJO-progressing from phase 7 into 8 or 1…not there yet but headed in right direction. MJO @ phase 5 going to 6
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.html
• Pineapple Express aka southern Jet Stream active across California/4 corners to southern US all quiet on this front but keep an eye out for the southern jet to get going by November as Tropic season winds down in the Pacific.
• PNA-positive & trending to more positive…BIG NEWS HERE! PNA is going very + in the next week & will bring a cold spell October 8-10 with the first frost/freeze for much of the eastern US. Another shot of cold air may come our way towards Halloween.
• EPO-negative nothing happening here yet.
• AO-negative…even with the PNA going +, the models are not in consensus with the AO going negative as the cold air from Canada comes south. However, this cold air coming next week is not really a true Polar Vortex that is associated with a negative AO. http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/CurrentConditions.php
• NAO-definitely negative & a negative west based NAO…currently negative & forecast to stay – or go neutral after October 10. NAO will be – enough to have an influence on the cold air for next week.
Here’s Meteorologist Rob Guarino’s site for his update: GOOD STUFF HERE!
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=2639&Itemid=179
See next comment for updated weather predictions for October & beyond…
Quags Winter Weather Lesson 2 part 5 updated October 1 …last page!
So here is where we stand as of October 1…NEWS FLASH! HUGE PATTERN CHANGE FOR OCTOBER!
• El Nino remains weak & is trending to stay weak
• NAO remains negative but is forecast to go neutral or slightly positive then take another nose dive at the end of October (but this is October so it really won’t help just yet).
• BIG NEWS NOW IS…a major pattern change headed for North America after October 5. The PNA (Pacific North American) Oscillation forecasted to become very strong (positive) bringing colder air for most of the eastern US with the first freeze/frost of the fall for much of the eastern US say north of Interstate 40 around October 9-10. This pattern change overall will bring below normal temps with a better chance for increased precip. chances for the east. The Euro model verifies this as well. Look for another round of colder air to return towards Halloween.
• AO-still early. This pattern change will indeed usher in colder air but we are not yet in the Polar Vortex season.
Here’s my updated fall/winter weather outlook as of October 1:
• September will end up being slightly cooler & wetter with respect to averages…I predicted warmer temps & normal precip. I got that one wrong!
• October will now be below normal to normal on temperature averages with normal to slightly above normal averages on precipitation. No SNOWTOBER this year but now I am looking at a much cooler & slightly wetter October than what I first predicted.
• No changes to the rest of my predictions just yet.
Lesson 3…Models…I am also working on a website instead of posting comments here. I’m sure Kevin would prefer that. Again thanks to the R-T & Kevin for allowing me to post.
Quag: If you do your own website, you can always post a link on here.
Quagmire your posts are always informative and on a level I can understand . Thanks for all you do.
Spent the day in Blacksburg, speaking to a VT meteorology class (taught by one Robin Reed) and talking to the weather service meteorologists about their coming radar upgrade. Got my feet wet making a long walk through the campus in the rain. Good day though.
That’s what you get fer wearin flipum flopums.
No flipum flopums here. Just tennis shoes. But a long way to walk that got wetter between going and coming.
Speaking of wet — Doug Griggs reports 3.24 inches cumulative in Vicksburg, Miss., where he has been during this storm system.
Well, a good pair of hikin boots would have tended to that problem.
KFCX Dual Pol upgrade. Awesome! Maybe I should bite the bullet and buy a license for dual polarization for the 2013 severe weather season.
You’re right, WD. They were sitting right here in front of the door at my house.
Speaking of weatherproof hiking boots, I was temporarily partial to Merrell, but since getting my first pair of Keens, I have officially switched!
Hello Soggy Bottoms…
Prepare for overnight sleep inducing liquid bliss.
Weather box out now for central Ga and southern Tenn..
Some heavier rains for you overnight as the weather that
now stretches from Dothan Ala to Ashville heads your way.
Pockets of heavy rains now over north Ga mountains..
Im guessing 1-3am for Roanoke..or thereabouts if it holds together.
Roanoke barely recovered to 60 today after a low of 54. Blacksburg topped out at 55 after low of 50.
Evening report from Doppler Ridge – currently 53 F and we have had “0.22″ inches of rain.
Capt Quag, my apologies if the answer is in the links you provided, but I did not have time to investigate those. Of the teleconnections you mentioned, what is the time frame for each changing? If I remember correctly the NAO can change over a few days, so which are more for short term vs long term forecasting?
Still ANOTHER dreary day in the Magnolia State. The locals were freezing to death, because the normal highs are supposed to be in the low 80s, but today was mostly in the low 60s and very damp. We visited a local antebellum mansion and the hostess (who owned the home) confided that she was wearing a shawl, a sweater, and … get this … LONG UNDERWEAR!!Rained some more, but nothing heavy. I am hoping to play goof at a local goof course here, but even tho’ I am waiting until the P.M. to play, I know it will still be very “moist” underfoot.
Ok, SWV’ers, I hope that everybody gets at least an inch of rain from your system. TWC is still predicting and “outlooking” dry weather for this part of the nation right through Sunday. In fact, I recommend that you look at Sunday’s national weather map on weather.com’s website “Weekly Planner” map. Very little rain anywhere in the lower 48.
Quags, thanks very much for the compliments, but I am a “Duffer you say?!?! Duffer?!?! I’ll have you know that it was ‘duffers’ like me who built this bloody empire!!” Oops … I just inserted myself into one of my favorite quotes from the movies, Michael Caine as Peachy Carnahan early in the movie “The Man Who Would Be King.” And I am no golf pro, but I am certainly ni duffer, either. Although I am sure that Jared Greene could easily beat me.
Quags, the NAO has been negative almost every day since mid-May, but mostly slightly negative only. About once each month (twice in June, I think) it nosedives well into negative territory, but each time it has rebounded to neutral or at least close to neutral in a week usually. What you and the multitudes need is for it to nosedive and stay “submerged.” And doing that in November won’t help, either. Doing that in December and Jan and FEB will. All the acorns, fogs, wooly worms, stink bugs won’t matter much if the NAO and AO hang around neutral or go positive for most of the winter. There may be an unusual system (like Feb. 19th), or a storm that happens when the NAO or AO make a brief dip. Or if the PNA goes very positive. But judging from the years of data I have looked at lately, the AO and the NAO are the big keys to having a big winter. 2009-10 is a prime example.
Kevin…
Remember these??
When I first came to Dallas in 87
we would get these dropped off to our desk.
The data was usually 2 hours old when we got it.
My how things have changed.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/pah/may8_2009/Jully2219980bow_radar.jpg
I saw some printouts like that at the weather service office when I toured one in the 1980s. I was still in high school when you got to Dallas. Now, there’s more weather data available at my fingertips than they had in all their room-sized computers.
I’m retiring for the night a little early after a busy day. Expecting to hear some rain beating on the roof a little later.
Its amazing how much its changed Kevin..
I remember being all proud of making a weather display
board at Dulles Airport..where the carrier I worked for at the
time was based.
It had rotating panels (plywood) with pvc axels..with magnetic
strips holding the charts in place.
Sigh…The good old days!
Reporting 1.50″ in the rain gauge so far……..that includes Monday. Looks from the radar like I might get another 0.25″ this morning.
Peeking at radar once early this morning, it looked like the heaviest slug of rain moved north west of I-77 overnight — over you, Rick.
I got about 3/4 inch just south of Roanoke out of showery, upslope-enhanced stuff. Looks like more showery stuff today.
We’re up to just under 0.70″ of rain, well, we were by 730am anyway. We had a few heavier downpours overnight, and seem to have picked up more than parts of Montgomery County (east of us) at this point, but less than places west of us, like Rick.
Kevin, what is the weather looking like for Thursday in Christiansburg at Layman Farms? My youngest kids have a field trip there that morning.
Thursday should be a great day for a field trip. Sunny and in the 70s.
I will just tell you folks in advance, I will NOT be following this Weather Channel-created “naming” protocol on winter storms this season. I won’t ban it from comments and such, but I won’t be using it.
http://www.weather.com/news/why-we-name-winter-storms-20121001
Why not?
(1) I don’t recognize The Weather Channel as a valid agency to issue a naming convention on winter storms.
(2) Tropical systems have specific physical characteristics that lead to a well-defined naming system. Winter storms come in numerous varieties — nor’easters of Miller A and B variety, overrunning events, Alberta clippers, etc. — that don’t share enough commonalities for a naming system.
(3) I have yet to see any specific list of precise criteria that will be used to name storms.
(4) I don’t like the names on the list being used. Greek and Roman gods for winter storms?
I think the Weather Channel is overstepping their bounds on this. What they’re saying about NOAA not having an effective means of alerting the public about an upcoming winter weather event is just not correct. More hype!
Kevin, I’ll ad a 5th one to that: I don’t find TWC to be all that credible as a weather organization anyway.
They’ve morphed into more a weather-tainment channel, focusing on how to sensationalize the weather for ratings. It’s a far cry from getting the Local on the 8′s growing up, with the same repetetive national forecast segments. It seemed the only time they broke from that was bringing in John Hope for a hurricane, or throwing Jim Cantore into severe weather.
Weather Channel has lost a lot of viewers..
Its been devolving over a long time.
The money people behind TWC are largley about that..just money.
No doubt that before long theyll have a spot when the numbers are down
that theyll show MTV type videos .
CCR “Who’ll stop the rain”
Red Hot Chili Peppers.. “Adventures of Rain Dance Maggie”:
and Bob Seeger ” Against The Wind”
…Its just a matter of time.
Kevin, I read the Weather Channel article you posted above and I completely agree with your comments. I have never found the Weather Channel to be particularly credible and have often thought of them as showmanship and hype. I also found the article to be insulting to their viewers intelligence. They assume that the viewer lacks the intelligence to determine the severity of a winter storm without giving it a cutesy name. Also, in the article they state that there is no national center that tracks winter storms. Isn’t tracking storms part of what the National Weather Service does?
I know folks that work under the umbrella of TWC-s owner..
and a Meteorologist in charge of TWC folks (out of state).
TWC became part of NBC Universal in 2008.
Prior to 2008, the Weather Channel was owned by Landmark Communications, which also owned The Roanoke Times. (Landmark still owns The Roanoke Times, but is under a somewhat different corporate name). Because of the former ownership situation, and my desire to focus on weather rather than weather personalities, I have largely steered clear of discussion about The Weather Channel, pro or con. But since this naming convention will undoubtedly be adopted by lots of people on Twitter and other online platforms, I just want to be on the record early as not agreeing with it or planning to use it.
Amen, Leo Lady. The Weather Channel is taking hype for profits another notch up. Most weather is pretty unexciting so they can suck in more viewers if they say “Caeser is barreling down on you” rather than just, “it’s going to snow”.
Kevin – You mean you aren’t looking forward to Winter Storm Caesar? “Render unto Caesar the things which are Caesar’s” which for TWC would probably be our rooftops collapsing under 5 feet of snow. haha Some on here will get a kick out of the names such as Gandolf, Khan (Doug would love a winter storm named Khan), Rocky, Q, and Yogi. If we were ever to actually reach Zeus at the end of the name list that would be a heck of a winter depending on what exactly qualifies a storm for one of these names.
I’m sure we’ll have some fun with it on here. If Winter Storm Ukko is a mixed event, for instance, I’m sure we would call it Yukko.
For serious purposes — show me a SPECIFIC list of criteria (not the Weather Channel meteorological team using a squishy backroom process) and some indication that public agencies who are actually in charge of issuing warnings and advisories give it any credence, and I’ll think about it.
I wonder if the Weathe Channel will break stride to name a storm that comes during the 3rd/4th week of December Winter Storm Kris? Or will they just be overt and name it Santa instead?
I mean, isn’t that the next step?
TWC…ultimate fail! Banned for Life! Q Storm? You couldn’t name it “Quags” could you! First NBC, now Comcra*. But thanks for motivating me to start a weather website!
Right on Kevin! I’m with ya!
Trevor, you answer coming in next comment.
Joe, did you used to work @ ACA/Indy Air? or Gemini?
If there are no specific standards as to what qualifies for a name then it makes you wonder that if this upcoming winter is not all that impressive will storms be given names just so they can use the list? That would let me know right away how much of a gimmick it may be. If they hype this up then have no storms to name will they worry more about the integrity of it or just throw out names to get people to tune in? Time will tell I guess…
I just don’t see it, Kevin. Winter storms are so much more fuzzy for criteria than tropical systems, which are generally very well defined. For instance, would the system that brought snow to the Rockies a few days ago have gotten a name? Overlapping named storms with hurricane season? What about the strong upslope events and lake-effect snows on the backside of a strong ULL, that itself may not have necessarily been a winter storm? Those are certainly more impacting than some ‘widespread’ winter storms are. And then you have some of those situations where things are incredibly marginal and unpredictable, like when a ULL lands down near the Gulf and kicks up some sleet and flakes in the Deep South for a spell…would it garner a name?
I simply don’t like it. Now, something like the 1993 superstorm, that was pretty well defined, but winter storms are rarely that well organized or extreme. I think it’s just more for hyping winter weather events. I’m kind of surprised HM at Accuweather didn’t make this happen…but then again AW isn’t a cable network trying to compete for viewers’ eyes and dwindling ad revenues based on ratings.
How about upslope snow events? They can drop 12-18 inches of snow in West Virginia’s highlands. Do they get named?
The way I read the Weather Channel’s article is that 1-2 inches of snow in New York City will get named but a raging blizzard in rural South Dakota might not.
Only something like naming blizzards or nor’easters could even begin to have a specific criteria list, since you could come up with some common physical characteristics for those storms.
Ugh…and TWC misused the phrase “begs the question” as well. I personally don’t mind indicators like “Snowpocalypse” or “Storm of the Century” (for fun) but names? Nah…I’m with you all the way Kevin.
Around 0.43″ here for 2 days.
No Quags…didnt work for any of those.
Keep in mind that HM at Accuweather has come up with winter storm categories, which is one step removed from naming conventions:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/henrys-winter-storm-categories-1/17469
Perhaps Weather Channel plans on using something similar to this. It’s still too subjective and gimmicky for my taste, however.
Just call it a snow/sleet/freezing rain storm and be done with it. I too feel this is a bit overboard for TWC. They make money when the weather is bad so they are adding a bit of hype to bring in the customers. But remember folks, the name of the game is making money and they want to stay in the business. So whatever ‘floats their boat’.
Now to the present. The Chapel skies have parted and it is 76 degrees after a two day rainfall total of 1.10″. Supposed to stay warm until the weekend and then we may have to crank up the wood stoves. Enjoy all!!
Research completed. I have told my wife I planned to do this, but never got motivated until just now. TWC, not well respected on this blog and elsewhere much. I recall it was great 20-30 years ago when it was mostly weather, not opinions, not history shows, not so many dang commercials!
I just sat down for an hour with a stopwatch and timed when they were actually giving information about weather happening now, or nearterm forecasts. Out of 60 minutes, they get credit for a mere 24 minutes of weather. This is why I rarely even turn to that channel….half the time, you hit a commercial.
Good call Kevin as it’s just a publicity gimmick….
Also what’s with the new facination of comparing ourselves with Europe trying to do everything that they do? We left them behind years ago…:)
Trevar…
To answer your question, I’ll make this simple. There is really no way to place a time frame on how or when the teleconnections will do what they do. I just happens, nature ya know so it will take whatever course it decides to do. As far as short term goes, the EPO, WPO, NAO, AO, PNA are short termers with El Nino, ENSO, PDO, MJO being a more longer range type of indicators of what will happen. Answer your question?
TWC is a marketing giant and an ad generating cash cow with revenues in 2011 over $500 million. So the naming thing is geared to drawing folks in. Money talks…is it practical – only time will tell??
Agree with you Kevin. Naming storms is ludicrous. But it’s in keeping with their change in philosophy and programming recently. I’m not interested in “Ice Pilots, Iron Men, and those other weird shows; just the weather. I no longer consider them a viable source.
The wedge is alive and well today east of the Blue Ridge. Temperature here at the Chapel is sitting at a sunny 82 degrees and Roanoke is still in the 60′s. Don’t fret, you too will warm up.
I’ll admit, when I was growing up I was either watching TWC continually, or Star Trek…for the most part. I’ll admit to being a nerd. But when I started college and didn’t have access to cable for a while, by the time I got cable back in 2002, I noticed they were already shifting dramatically. I would tune in to TWC for weather forecasts and weather news, but it got to like Rick, Merle, etc have said: it’s too much non-weather stuff. It turned me away from watching them again, and aside from seeing some blips here and there when it’s been broadcasting in a restaurant somewhere, I haven’t watched anything from TWC in close to a decade, and i maybe go to their site a handful of times a year, usually when someone links an article they have published. I get my actual weather forecasts and details primarily from the NWS family of sites, and of course the fine folks here on this blog.
Back to today’s weather for a minute — and Michael Hoback’s 4:10 p.m. comment — the warm front has never got pulled north today so we’re still stuck in the wedge. The badly named “cold” front will pull through later, though, and even the Roanoke and New River valleys will be in the drier air that can warm to the low 80s by Wednesday.
Yea, I don’t think 65.5* could be considered “much warmer than Monday”.
I enjoy watching the Weather Channel for entertainment, but not as a primary source of weather information. Ice Pilots is one of my favorite shows. I just like the old airplanes they fly and the remote places they fly in and out of. I don’t think they really pull of being both a source of entertainment and a credible weather source, however.
I wonder if a significant November snowfall could be in the cards this year. If the pattern is becoming favorable this month and continues into November…
Part of the appeal of this blog is the genuine interest each of us has in real weather, and its impact on everything we do. It’s changeable, and unpredictable, and trying to figure out its next move is, to me, incredibly fascinating. In 2009, Kevin Myatt predicted the December 18-19 snowstorm by telling us to take a ruler, make it vertical, then add a few inches to that. With that kind of visual imagery, who needs names for winter storms?
I’d much rather learn about the NAO, the undulatus asperatus, and what our postman and doppler lady are experiencing, more than anything the WX Channel might have to offer. Thanks, Kevin, for taking a clear stand against the storm-naming nonsense, and keeping the weather real.
Thanks, Vickie.
On this issue, I’m far, far from alone — just about the entire meteorological community outside of TWC itself has reacted with revulsion and even mockery of the idea.
But of course … they have succeeded in spurring conversation today. And there is no such thing as “bad” publicity when you’re in the entertainment business.
I laugh at this idea. They do have our attention about this, even though it sounds like Hobbits named the future storms. I mean no harm to Hobbits!
Funny thing in regards to naming storms: I went to a consignment sale this afternoon and this was the hot topic. She had supposedly heard that Roanoke is looking at 7 storms, 1 of which will be named “Buster”. So I’m like “wait, they are supposed to be Greek and Roman God names! Buster doesn’t qualify” LOL So needless to say, TWC is getting exactly what they want: people are talking!
Kevin, my brother called and said he went to Bent Mtn this afternoon and the sun was shining and temps were above 70. He picked up his grandaughter and headed back to Vinton. The valley was still in the 60′s and fogged over when he got home. Many do not realize how stong that wedge can be especially in the winter. I have seen winter storms move through the Chapel, warm up to follow and the entire time Roanoke never gets out of the deep freeze. What you gain in wedge, we gain in up slope.
Weather channel is also saying this winter is going to be warm in the east and cold and snow out west, opposite from about every other weather station, blog or channel is saying! I think they just do this for publicity!
Wow, I leave town and all ‘ell breaks loose. I saw the big number of comments and wondered if a dam had broken or something, but I see it is all about our 2nd favorite whipping boy, The Weather Channel.
Kevin, I am surprised at you, and at all the rest of you folks for berating TWC for their wonderful, innovative idea. Lord knows, KM, you are always jumping on the latest weather gimmick bandwagon, so why did you change your mind this time? HUH?? …… And if anyone here believes a word that I have typed in this paragraph, shame on you! lol
Since we are “piling on” TWC, I’ll throw in my two cents. While still in Vicksburg on Sunday, I looked up the TWC hourly forecast for Monday to see if the weather was going to clear up and become sunny. They forecasted a low of 43 on early Monday morning and partly sunny conditions, with temps rising to the low 70s. It was about 59 and incredibly damp on early Monday morning and stayed that way all day, with temps remaining in the low 60s.
Their (TWC’s) latest gimmick is “Coast Guard Florida.” Excuse me while I find the nearest rest room and lose my most recent meal. I would rather have 36 minutes of “Local on the 8s” with hopefully a national radar map thrown in and 24 minutes of commercials than “CGF.”
A brief bit about the weather today. NG and I finally got to see what the Magnolia State looks like when it is sunny. Fabulous day, upper 70s, low humidity. I even got to “goof around” a bit, and was once again red hot with the putter. ‘nuf on that.
We ate at a section of Natchez right on the banks of the Miss. River (called Natchez Under the Hill), and a plaque there detailed how a large chunk of Natchez was destroyed or badly damaged by a tornado that hit on 5-8-1840, That is not a typo … 1840. Oh, and all the locals are chatting about how low the Miss. River is …. lowest that many of them have ever seen it. That is still a lot more preferable (IMHO) than the floods of 1993.
Vickie in Blacksburg, you like reading about “our postman?” Even though he is crazy? I am honored. :>) :>)
And congrats, Rick, on another big rainfall total. Your area is probably vying with “Hobackville” for greenest section of Virginia. It is very green down here, too.
Shanon, there is a B name that at least 1 snowstorm gets labeled with almost every winter here: Bust!
Ahhhhhh! Kevin, fond memories! Samey Oakey, are you out there? Probably not. 1-26-12. “Bust-a-geddon.” ….. Unlike 12-18-09, my personal “Nightmare on 30th Street.”
Michael H, I have a question for you, about how long it takes a haystack to dry out once it gets soaked. We saw a few driving between Vburg and Natchez. But I will repeat this tomorrow morning if I get a chance to do it, because there is a 99 and 44/100% chance that KM will start a new thread by then.
Haha Kevin! That is very true. The “bust” is when Doug likes to dance and link to youtube songs too lol.
Kevin, I’m with you on the Weather Channel’s naming of the systems. To me it seems like a viral marketing gimmick. By naming them they increase awareness and thus more people freak out and tune into their channel for details.
It’s clever from a marketing perspective, but not from a science one. The other issue I have with it is that there are so many snow events in the country that comparatively are different. A whopper of a storm in North Carolina might be an average lake effect event in Buffalo, and what about all the mountain snows? It’s dumb to define what is a snow event worthy of a name.
Now, having said that… for a regional forecast such as yours and a limited audience, I think it might be fun to name the swaths of snow that blast through the Roanoke region. “Snowstorm Kat is on the way out and here comes Snowstorm Randolph this weekend!” At least on a regional setting, its applicable, and identifies an event for reference for years in the future “Hey, do you remember when Snowstorm Bob came through in 2012? That was a whopper” sounds a lot better than “Do you remember the Feb 2-3 weather event last year?” at which point my head starts to spin wondering which weather event they’re referring to.
Just 2 cents on a sort of alternate opinion. Either way, I know where I go for weather analysis. Right Here! Hope you got your vacation time in this year Kevin! I hope you’re busy this year.
That’s right people, I’m switching sides from snow hater to snow lover. Especially now that I have a garage and access to the bus line here in c’ville!
Scott: I actually think the Weather Channel’s “gimmick” will succeed, and largely already has, as a marketing move — and that’s the danger of it. It’s already got all of us talking, and lots of people are going to be tweeting hashtags with whatever name TWC storm gives to it, regardless of how the weather service or other weather professionals perceive it. I would even give it some chance of eventually leading to a widely adopted system — hopefully if that happens, it has precise, measurable criteria that would be recognized across the board by weather professionals, not decided on fuzzy, subjective criteria behind the scenes by some meteorological cabal at one TV cable network.
I just think it’s sad that they would decide to usurp the National Weather Service in this way and unilaterally launch a naming convention without any input from the folks who actually issue the warnings. It seems infotainment has trumped public awareness. It’s going to create a meteorological Tower of Babel on Twitter and Facebook and online platforms this winter
I would not name local storms — partly because the name I give a local storm could be different from the name the Weather Channel gives a storm on a broader scale, creating more confusion. But I have considered coming up with a local 0 to 5 snowstorm scale to rate winter storms. Someone mentioned Accuweather has done this. Maybe that’s my hesitation.
Dang! that’s such a bummer, because it’s kind of a good idea, but only regionally. Cabal is a great word for TWC. I did some web design work with them back in the 90s, and they were pretty difficult to work with.