UPDATE 11 AM, 9/18: Heavy rain likely, windy storms possible Tuesday
Latest Radar / Futurecast linked here
Latest warnings from National Weather Service-Blacksburg linked here
UPDATE 11 AM, 9/18: As expected, a tornado watch has been issued to the east of the Roanoke and New River valleys, affecting Staunton, Lynchburg, Danville and points east, through 7 p.m. Extreme atmospheric shear will combine with some instability to our east to produce a chance of rotating storms that could produce damaging downdraft winds, and possibly a few tornadoes, though they are likely to be sporadic, brief and weak. Meanwhile, a large area of moderate to heavy rain is expanding back over the valleys after a morning lull. Expect another 1 inch of rain in most areas, possibly 2 or more in some localized spots. There is some chance of gusty winds with a few isolated storms even though we are outside the severe weather watch. A flash flood watch continues through today for Roanoke and Floyd westward. END UPDATE
We have a springlike storm system in a winterlike large-scale pattern that will lead to some fall-like temperatures later this week. If we had summerlike temperatures, we’d have a big problem Tuesday — atmospheric shear (winds changing direction with height) is extremely ramped up with the storm system passing just west of us, and that could lead to some storms rotating, increasing the risk of strong downdraft winds and a few tornadoes. If it were hotter, we could have a major severe weather outbreak — it may be bad enough over eastern Virginia, through the D.C. area and much of the Delmarva peninsula, the area marked by hatched lines in the Storm Prediction Center map that is inset. Expect to see several reports of wind damage and a few reports of tornadoes over that way Tuesday. The yellow area on the map marks the western edge of the “slight risk” of severe weather, basically following the Blue Ridge. It’s close enough that even the Roanoke and New River valleys should pay attention for a few morning storms with strong winds. The risk will be greater to the east, where it may get a bit warmer during the day, as the bigger storm risk arrives later. Expect tornado watches east of the Blue Ridge on Tuesday, with the Roanoke area on the margin of potential. Follow the Storm Prediction Center for the latest outlooks and watches for severe storm potential.
Flip the severe map to see where the greatest risk of flash flooding exists. That will be greater the more you go west. Locations farther west of Roanoke are more likely to be affected by a large area of rain moving out Tennessee and Kentucky, while locations along the Blue Ridge, including the Roanoke and New River valleys, are likely to get rounds of heavy rain and storms out of North Carolina overnight and early Tuesday. Farther east, the storms will be a bit more spotty on Tuesday, but could cause locally torrential rain. The actual rainfall never turns out as smooth and even as the projection map shows, but some spots will likely get 2-plus inches in the Roanoke and New River valleys westward. Areas from Roanoke westward are under a flash flood watch for the potential of storms and heavy showers moving over the same locations repeatedly, flooding roads and some ditches and creeks. Flooding of large rivers is not expected with this round of rain, as we enter it fairly dry.
This round of rain, combined with some cool mornings ahead with a series of cold fronts (lots of 40s by Thursday morning, maybe some 30s, and likely even a little colder by early next week) may help get some trees changing color a bit earlier than we’ve seen most autumns recently.
September 17, 2012 - 11:12 PM
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I can tell by the level of rain we’ve had here the last 30 minutes in south Roanoke County that we’re not going to have any trouble getting our inch-plus. May be close now.
Got 2.25″ so far in the last 18 hours. Looks like most of the morning, the rain will stay just west of us. Better luck in the afternoon?
Warm night………only got down to 64 here on the “tropical” side.
Checked the gauge at 6 AM and we are already up to a big 1.7 inches. And it has been POURING ever since. 2 inches total? Easily. 2.5? very possible. 3? Dog got a VERY short walk because both of us were getting drenched. This may be the biggest rainfall I have had in 2012.
My fellow letter carriers who have to walk in these awful conditions (as well as anyone else who has to work outside) are in for a very rough day.
Roanoke Regional has gone over an inch now. The way the system is moving, i won’t make a lot of eastward progress for several hours, and there will be repeated waves from the southwest.
The 5 percent tornado risk area, 15 percent high winds area and “slight risk” of severe weather now extends as far west as the I-77 corridor.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Only about 0.8 inches in the gauge at 5:30 am. Looks like we may fall well short of the 2.5 inches that was forecast yesterday.
I read the comments from last night and it looks like we were getting the same amount of rain as everyone else. I had “0.66″ at midnight and then it was like the skies opened up for about 45 minutes. Lots of rain. This morning the rain gauge is showing “1.53″ inches since yesterday afternoon. The wind has picked up in the last half hour and now my concern is up-rooted trees across the road.
Looks like we are the losers in the rainfall category! Weather channel still says we can pick up an inch of rain. Congrats to the winners down in the NRV and Mountain Empire! Oh well didn’t get a chance to seed yet anyhow. Kevin, when is our next decent chance of rain here east of the Blue Ridge?
It poured here overnight last night. My other half got up in the middle of the night and said it sounded like someone had left the shower running.
I was reviewing blog comments from last night and saw your question, Doug. I live in the neighborhood that is on the other side of Brambleton from the lower part of Fishburn Park. About a quarter of a mile from the park as the crow flies, a bit longer by road. When it rains like this we watch the creek pretty closely. If it floods it can block some of the access to the neighborhood.
We’re getting shorted here in Goodview. My dad is 5 miles due North in Jordantown. We each had .30 before midnight. Since midnight he has .68 while we only have .40
Think maybe we will get some heavy rain around the 2 pm hour! DT just posted a map with some pretty heavy storms on futurecast about that time. He said most of the severe weather would be north piedmont of virginia on up into the Delmarva. Hope we can pick up some of that rain, but no high winds! Kevin, do you think that cold front this weekend will be cold enough to bring frost to our neck of the woods?
Woke up this morning to find that my large plastic rain gauge is full and likely overflowed…it holds 5″.
My gauge has topped 2 inches south of Roanoke. Roanoke Regional Airport is now at 1.82 for the event.
There is more that has to pull through over western NC, northeast Georgia. And we’ll be on the lookout for rotating cells as the day goes on.
Central/eastern Virginia being advised of developing severe weather potential by Storm Prediction Center.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1957.html
Jared; Thinking frost will be spotty mostly west of I-81 by Monday morning. First cold front pushing through tonight will not be that cold. Mostly 40s by Thursday morning.
Based on Virginia Tech Airport observations, looks like Blacksburg is near 1.25 inch. Offiically had .79 by midnight, and about half an inch since.
I’ll post a list of areawide rainfall amounts when one is issued.
Here it is, current list of rainfall totals.
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=201209181319-KRNK-NOUS41-PNSRNK
Note that “Roanoke AP” is the airport reading and is listed under Roanoke County, not under Roanoke city as it should be geographically. Never have figured out why it’s like that. When I hand post the list, I move it to Roanoke city.
1.34 at Blacksburg NWS.
Just at 2 inches here in South Roanoke at 1500 feet. Hello to all!
1.13″ on Peppers Ferry ending 7 a.m. I see 3+ for the Bristol Tricity region . Presently, air is heavy here.
TO NOWCAST WE GO FOR THE REST OF TODAY…
This SPC link puts everything together in one neat package. Move your mouse & click on the black icon toolbar above the map, you’ll find everything you need for this event.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#
So far only 0.09” here in eastern Goochland County but it’s coming our way.
From Kevin’s link above on Meso Discussion 1957 concerning the eastern ½ of VA…I expect some type of Watch (Tornado or Severe T-Storm) to be issued soon.
Just as I type, here comes Tornado Watch for NC.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0641.html
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
TORNADO WATCH 641 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NCC001-037-051-063-065-069-077-083-085-093-101-105-125-127-135-
145-153-163-165-181-183-185-191-195-182100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0641.120918T1345Z-120918T2100Z/
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE CHATHAM CUMBERLAND
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GRANVILLE HALIFAX HARNETT
HOKE JOHNSTON LEE
MOORE NASH ORANGE
PERSON RICHMOND SAMPSON
SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE
WARREN WAYNE WILSON
I still have not purchased a rain gauge, but the ponding in front of my driveway tells me that we had ALOT of rain last night LOL. I’m betting on at least 1+ inches so far. I’m hoping that my grass turns back to the Emerald City instead of the brown desert soon.
The sun just popped out briefly at my house. Every time the sun peeks out, the atmosphere is destabilized just a wee bit more, and that will increase the threat of some severe storms later.
I think the SML region is the big loser in this rain event so far. I only had a half inch in the gauge when I left for work this morning and I doubt we’ve gotten much over a tenth since then, but the radar looks promising for afternoon rains.
Looking at the radar for central VA…radar estimated cell speeds range in the 50 to 75 mph range…so the low level jet is making an impact.
It does seem like the rain has split around Smith Mountain Lake and Lynchburg so far. Lynchburg only has 0.16 for the whole event right now.
Our hilltop in Rockbridge County has collected almost 1 1/2″ since last night. While it is not raining now, more certainly seems to be on the way. We have had enough wind already to put a number of small limbs and leaves on our driveway. This ends an 8 day span here without precipitation.
Rain coming down here in Hokieburg now – earlier, emptied out 1.4″ from the gauge this morning…that included the .5 from the check last night/yesterday’s total.
Paul, you are correct. If you click on the link below, you can pull up the forecast winds aloft for all altitudes. If you play with map icons above the map you will see a depiction. Winds over VA at 3000′ are between 50-70 knots and between 60-80 knots at 6000′
http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/winds/
I’m with you Matt. I currently have .65 today, .95 for the storm in Goodview. Jordantown has 1.07 today, 1.37 storm total. More on the way…we’ll see how this next line hits us.
HELLO TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR VA!!!! Hang on…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0642.html
BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012
TORNADO WATCH 642 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK ALBEMARLE AMELIA
AMHERST APPOMATTOX ARLINGTON
AUGUSTA BRUNSWICK BUCKINGHAM
CAMPBELL CAROLINE CHARLES CITY
CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD CLARKE
CULPEPER CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE
ESSEX FAIRFAX FAUQUIER
FLUVANNA FREDERICK GLOUCESTER
GOOCHLAND GREENE GREENSVILLE
HALIFAX HANOVER HENRICO
ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN
KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LANCASTER
LOUDOUN LOUISA LUNENBURG
MADISON MATHEWS MECKLENBURG
MIDDLESEX NELSON NEW KENT
NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY
ORANGE PAGE PITTSYLVANIA
POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE
PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK RICHMOND
ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SOUTHAMPTON
SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD SURRY
SUSSEX WARREN WESTMORELAND
YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE CHESAPEAKE
COLONIAL HEIGHTS DANVILLE EMPORIA
FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH FRANKLIN
FREDERICKSBURG HAMPTON HARRISONBURG
HOPEWELL LYNCHBURG MANASSAS
MANASSAS PARK NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK
PETERSBURG POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH
RICHMOND STAUNTON SUFFOLK
VIRGINIA BEACH WAYNESBORO WILLIAMSBURG
WINCHESTER
Nice Line coming together quickly from VA/NC up the spine of the Blue Ridge from the NRV/Dopplerville to just near Salem moving east. Lots of convective activity developing the Greensboro/Piedmont NC area moving NNE at 50+ knots. Some supercells in this stuff.
No window in my office, so I popped out to the main foyer and we are getting POUNDED!!! Some ligt to moderate winds also. I’m on Melrose at work currently in NW Roanoke.
Getting hammered now in Bonsack
Quags,
When are you going to put out that preliminary winter outlook? Sorry, if you already had and I missed it. Just wondering what your thoughts were.
We are now over 2.5 inches of rain so far with heavy rain now. The ground seems to be taking all of it now with little or no run off. The air feels very tropical and heavy. Ac is still on and allergies are really acting up. Wind at times is very strong thru the hollows. Think the rain will last thru 5:00 pm or so.
I just passed 2.5 inches, too, just south of Roanoke (1400 feet elevation).
Jared…October 1
I’ll claim 2.90 for the last 24 hours.
PWS showing 1.39 since yesterday. I’ll look at my gauge when it stops to confirm whether the two are close. Hammerin now tho. Ground has absorbed a bunch of water so from now own is the time to start watching the usual areas for quick rises in flows.
WOW!! READ THIS!!!! Not good upgrade to moderate risk for bad stuff
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1960.html
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED…FAR NRN SC…CNTRL/ERN NC…CNTRL/ERN VA…DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA…CNTRL/ERN MD…MUCH OF DE…ERN PA…WRN/NRN
NJ…PARTS OF ERN NY
CONCERNING…OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 181519Z – 181645Z
SUMMARY…A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS PLANNED FOR THE
UPCOMING 1630 UTC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS NWD INTO PARTS OF ERN NY.
DISCUSSION…STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE QLCS SEGMENTS
ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD SVR WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE UPCOMING MODERATE RISK
AREA…AND SVR WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 45 PERCENT
ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER…TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE…PARTICULARLY WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES…LINE
BREAKS…AND DISCRETE CONVECTION EVOLVING AHEAD AN APPROACHING
EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING OUTLOOK FOR
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION.
..COHEN/CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/18/2012
ATTN…WFO…OKX…ALY…PHI…BGM…AKQ…MHX…CTP…LWX…
RAH…ILM…RNK…
This storm sort of reminds me of the big snow in dec of 2009 with the waves of precipitation and wind driven rain under pourch that was snow then. I wish it was snow now love to look at it love to plow it and really like to sleigh ride in it. Wishful thinking now but maybe later who knows?
The only sad note in the past 3 months have lost my two best friends one our golden retriever of 13 years and my deceased parents standard poodle of almost 14 years. Both would sit on the front portth and watch it rain with me. Still raining but not as hard right now and rain gauge now at 23/4 inches
Finally a rainfall prediction that has verified for S.W. Roanoke County. We have had quite a few misses this summer. I am very thankful to see the much needed rain. We are over 2″ at my house off Brambleton near the Papa Johns.
IFLOWS reports ROA/RNK red.
http://afws.erh.noaa.gov/afws/index.php?gtype=precip&wfo=rnk
over 3 inches in Gala (Botetourt County)
I go to run errands and all H-E-Double Hockey Sticks breaks loose.
Tornado Watches in effect now north of the Mason-Dixon Line.
Closer to home, that line that just moved over the Blue Ridge is gaining strength and filling in fast all the way from north of Harrisburg, PA all the way down to almost Spartanburg, SC. If you are east of the US-29 corridor, keep you eye to the sky and listen up for official warnings from the NWS. SPC made a good call on upgrading to a moderate risk IMHO.
It has been 24 hours since the rain started up here on the ridge – the rain gauge says – drum roll please – “2.36″ inches. Fantastic! and it is still raining.
Jared French & et al up 29 corridor…Severe T-Storm Warning link below
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ037&warncounty=VAC003&firewxzone=VAZ037&local_place1=&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning
Mesoscale Discussion update from Tornado Watch in VA…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1964.html
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL/ERN VA…CNTRL/ERN MD…WASHINGTON DC…NERN
NC
CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 642…
VALID 181727Z – 181830Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 642 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY…THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS
TORNADO WATCH 642.
DISCUSSION…A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO CONGEAL FROM S-CNTRL PA SWD
INTO S-CNTRL VA NEAR/EAST OF A SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS. THE LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR LYING OVER THE
PIEDMONT…WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF AROUND 500-1000 M2/S2
AND RICH DEEP MOISTURE. STRONGLY CURVED/LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
PER AREA VWP DATA SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300
M2/S2…WITH A 60-KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX AT 1-KM AGL PER STERLING VWP
DATA…WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DMGG WINDS AND
TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES/LEWP STRUCTURES/LINE BREAKS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE LINE WOULD REACH THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC AREA AROUND
THE 1830Z-2030Z TIME-FRAME. ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION WITH
SVR WINDS/TORNADOES COULD EVOLVE WITHIN A NWD-SURGE OF WAA-RELATED
PRECIPITATION LEADING THE AFOREMENTIONED SQUALL LINE.
Looks like its just about over for the ROA Valley..
some lite rains persist south of Grayson Co..but all activity
east of Atlanta through Hickory have a good eastward component to the movement. Eastern NC and Va in the Tidewater will be quite active through
the afternoon and evening.
Roanoke’s clouds will scatter by early am tomorrow.
..Kudos to the land of the smiling frogs.
That was a nice 27 hour total of 3.25″. Looks like we might get a couple more tenths when the front comes through in the evening.
There might be more to come, but for now 1.19 today in Goodview (1.49 storm total) and 1.34 today in Jordantown (1.74 storm total).
Randy: I know you miss your furry ones and I am sorry. I lost my big furry boy in July so I know how you feel. I hope the rain doesn’t dampen your spirits too much. We do need it.
A plumb good catch up or get even rain, depending on where you live.
Well, looks like it’s time to go back to lurking until another weather risk comes along!
Leo Lady, I bet I know which street you live on, or at least you must be very close to. I will remain silent about it here. Thanks for the reply.
Doppler Gal …. I told you that you would get at least 1.5 inches!! That wasn’t really my prediction …. it was from Mr. Toad. :>) :>)
As for me …… would you believe just a hair under 2.5 inches since dawn on Sunday, 2.4 since yesterday noon? But RRA might be outdoing me …. I have only looked at the first 32 comments on this thread.
OK, we’re back…Nowcast is shut down.
Add another 2.19″ to the bucket for Goochland Co. The line moved thru with nothing more than heavy rain & winds less than 30mph.
Looks like the eastern half of NC is getting rocked especially from RDU points east & north. DC & NOVA get some stuff too.
The front is still to the west & there is some activity developing from Pittsburgh to London, KY moving east. Doubtful that this activity associated with the front will hold together by the time it hits western VA.
Off to finish up my first guess at winter for Jared.
Looks like about 2.9 in my gauge, south of Roanoke. That does include maybe a tenth of an inch on Sunday, the rest Monday-Tuesday.
Nurse Snow and wd, I just read you comments around the noon hour, and I was delivering to a business at the corner of Peters Creek Road and Hershberger Road NW in Roanoke City at 11:25, and it was one of the very worst downpours I have ever seen. Wind-driven sheets of heavy rain, and visibility dropped to roughly 75 yards during the worst of it. Got to a side street up near Duncan Acura (Meadowbrook Road NW) right after that, and the curbside gutters were little creeks flowing madly, even though the rain had just about stopped.
Driving on Peters Creek RD. northbound at about 11:28 AM toward the Duncan auto place, there was some decent ponding on the 4-lane street. Speed limit is 45 there, but I was going only 25-30. Luckily I had a gap in traffic behind me.
I just threw in the towel. Only 1.5 inches here near SML. Sun has broken out a couple times. Nothing really significant on radar. Franklin County has gotten some extreme storms this year, but this one was very meager for me.
Randy Oakey, sorry that two of your favorite dogs are now in doggie heaven. That is always rough, even when the pooch has lived a full life.
As for this being snow, your namesake (Sam Oakey) and me are very grateful that it is not!!! My word, this would be epic.
Rick!!!! Well over 3 inches!!!! Amazing. Hope that you don’t mind getting that much. Congratulations. And several others have exceeded my big total. OK, KM, how about an update after 5 PM or 6PM for RRA’s storm total?
Quags: I am interested in seeing your winter weather prediction as well.
Quags, I had 2 doctor appointments this afternoon, and while waiting for the 2nd one, The Weather Channel came on and showed that their “TorCon” Index for NE New Jersey is a “5!!” Either you or KM can explain it more and better if you wish, but I do know that their TorCon number runs from 1 to 10, and indicates how likely a tornado is within 50 (or is it 75?) miles of the center of that location is within a few hours. A 3 is substantial, and a 5 is very big.
And guess what today is? The 74th anniversary of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. I know that because it is my brother-in-law’s 74th birthday, and he was born in eastern MASS. during that huge weather event.
Rachel in Knoxville (8:30 AM comment), an overfilled rain gauge!!! My word, you got absolutely bombed. Have you had more since then?
I looked at NEXRAD radar closely both last night and before dawn this morning, and everywhere in your corner of TENN and all of eastern KY were lit up with mostly yellows and oranges all the time. I’m glad that I did not get your total. 2 or 3 inches is wonderful (AFAIC) when one’s yard has been under stress for an extended period, but anything over 4 is excessive. I hope that your basement did not flood, nor that there has been major flooding on roads.
And like the huge Dec. 18-19 snowstorm and a few other events, this was one time when the actuals over-performed what many model runs had showed. Kevin, did the 2-19-12 snowfall and the 4-16-12 rainstorm also “over-perform?” I don’t remember.
The total here at the Chapel now stands at 2.9″. Still getting some lite showers associated with possibly the passage of the front. Went out to Bristol today and streams are full but saw now flooding. The rain came in such a way to be absorbed into the dry ground. This will keep my pastures green for several more weeks until the freezes arrive.
Well, it overperformed for you Doug — not for Matt.
2/19/12 snowstorm overperformed the final forecasts about 2-4 inches (2-5 forecasts turned into 5-9 actual) but only because everyone chased the models, which were very accurate 24 hours out but made a bizarre shift south with it 12 hours before.
You may mean 4/16/11, not 4/16/12. It was pretty much on track overall, if I remember correctly.
The summer heat guessing game is over, so let’s get on with the snow game. Got my pick ready. Same as last year and the year before, and the same for next year and the year after.
I was right about Roanoke getting more than Blacksburg, officially: 2.33 over 2 days at Roanoke Regional Airport, to 1.99 at Blacksburg. Healthy rain totals at both sites, and many others. Hope to have a complete list a little later.
Snow contest will be announced in mid-October.
Overall a very strong forecast by the NWS with righ around 2″ at both Blacksburg and Roanoke. And, KM, great job in calling for Roanoke to get a little more than Blacksburg. Let’s hope we get similar type storms in about 10 weeks from now.
Kevin, is this the biggest rain “event” of 2012? It must be, and maybe for a lot longer than that.
Doug…
NJ is the area where both the low, front & low level jet have come together. The closer your low level southerly jet is to the front & low, the greater your chances are having severe weather especially tornados. All of the energy with this system came into alignment by developing a lengthy squall line with the great convergence occuring to our north.
Here’s the SPC’s explanation in the latests Mesoscale discussion as seen below:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1970.html
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED…ERN PA…DE…NJ…S-CNTRL/ERN NY…WRN CT…WRN MA
CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 643…645…646…
VALID 182021Z – 182215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
643…645…646…CONTINUES.
SUMMARY…THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS
TORNADO WATCHES 643…645…AND 646.
DISCUSSION…THE SVR THREAT ACROSS WW/S 643/645/646 IS EVOLVING IN
TWO REGIMES:
/1/ ONE REGIME IS ALONG A SHALLOW SQUALL LINE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE ADIRONDACKS SWD INTO S-CNTRL NY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR NRN
PA. AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH 50-55 KT OF
0-1-KM BULK SHEAR AND ELONGATED/LOOPING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS PER
AREA VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND TORNADOES WITH
THE EWD-ADVANCING LINE.
/2/ THE OTHER REGIME IS WITHIN THE BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
LEADING THE SQUALL LINE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND SWRN NEW ENGLAND. THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS
OF 3-4 MB PER 2 HRS OVER NERN NY/NRN VT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION NWD — MLCAPE OF 250 TO 500
J/KG — IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE OWING TO THE INFLUX OF
RICHER/MARINE-LAYER MOISTURE. SIMILAR LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS MENTIONED
ABOVE SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS EVOLVING IN BOTH LINEAR
SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODES.
Quagmire’s Preliminary Winter Weather Predictions 2012-’13 September 18, 2012 Teaser
Everyone is waiting with baited breath as to what I will say about this winter…here’s a teaser
Instead of posting a huge comment, I will post a weekly update as fall evolves when conditions warrant. I’ll make the postings a continuous learning process as to the how, why & what of winter weather & forecasting. Winter Weather 201 now open for registration.
El Nino winter coming? More like a very weak to a neutral ENSO winter if nothing changes…
Lesson 1…do your research
Before I get to what my first stab will be this winter, let’s do some research first and even include what the real experts have to say. I’ll explain more on this in the next comment.
So in short…for this fall & winter
• Rest of September into October will be normal to above normal fall conditions for both precipitation & temperatures with no SNOWTOBER this year.
• November will see Normal to above normal temps & precip as well but I don’t expect any snow.
• December normal temps & precip. First measurable snow for Western VA to occur around December 20-24 timeframe.
• January/February/First 1/2 March: Snow Lovers paradise? Look for normal temps with above normal precip with best chances for snow in this period, especially if strong –NAO/southern jet sets up. If the Pineapple Express cranks up LOOK OUT EAST COAST!
• Last half March/April: Normal temps & above normal precip with an active pattern possible in the southern tier.
Will explain more in the next post about doing research how you put it all together and how I made this first guess.
I was looking at that earlier, Rick. On an areawide basis, it may be the largest since Tropical Storm Lee’s remnants on Labor Day 2011. It appears to be fairly similar to a couple of 2-day rain events Nov. 28-29 and Dec. 6-7 in late 2011. May 13-14 is a bit tricky, it produced many 1-2-inch amounts, a few tenths for some, but dumped enormous totals above 6 inches on parts of Henry, Franklin and Bedford counties. So in terms of widespread inch-plus rains, it appears to be the biggest rain event of 2012. In terms of total rainfall dumped on the region, averaging the haves and have-nots, May 14-15 may be close.
Lesson 1 continued…Research to find the big picture. Back up what you say with science & fact.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is still suggesting that this will be a weak El Nino for this winter which is awesome news for the Snow Lovers. In fact, the current ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) alert status is “El Nino Watch” which means that conditions in the equatorial Pacific are favorable for El Nino to develop any second now & last thru at least March 2013. In short, the last 3 winters La Nina conditions have played an impact on what is going to happen this winter. For some odd reason, the ENSO’s neutral conditions are having a difficult time in wanting to latch onto an El Nino. Right now, we are stuck in a neutral condition until something breaks. The storm event that hit the east coast on September 17-18 may have been the first catalyst or cog in the gear to get El Nino going finally. What we need to watch is what is going to happen with the southern jet development & storms originating from the Pacific Coast & 4 corners region.
Here’s the CPC’s latest weekly ENSO analysis that Mr. Griggs enjoys & will go into greater detail of what the ENSO conditions are doing & where they are expected to go: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
In summary, CPC says El Nino is coming but it’s not quite here yet.
• ENSO-neutral conditions continue
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are greater than 0.5°C above average across the eastern Pacific Ocean.
• The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific is near average.
• El Niño conditions are likely to develop during September 2012.
Here’s a FAQ sections for the ENSO analysis:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#present
This is a great link from CPC on the difference between La Nina & El Nino patterns in North America:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/nawinter.shtml
Rob Guarino from http://www.liveweatherblogs.com has some good info on this link below as to what we may expect as he is with the consensus for a weak El Nino this winter. Click on the links below & read what he has to say. Good Stuff here. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=2639&Itemid=179
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179
Dave Tolleris from http://www.wxrisk.com has been asking, “Where’s the beef?” with El Nino. Dave has a point as the sea surface temps in the equatorial Pacific are warming but the real El Nino pattern has yet to materialize. Dave is playing it smart & will have plenty to say about this winter later on in October or November.
Allan Huffman at http://www.raleighwx.americanwx.com has yet to publish his official winter outlook but has a we3alth of information that I like to use. One is his teleconnections indicies models keeps track of all of those important ABC’s of winter weather like AO, NAO, PNA , EPO, WPO, PDO, etc. I’ll explain more in a minute about the teleconnections.
Allan’s TC link:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/teleconnections.html
There is another factor that I keep a watch on. The Drought Monitor.
The drought in the plains states & Texas has not been very good to the US the last 2 years. If we are going to have an El Nino, then the drought conditions must change for the wetter & El Nino promises to bring more rain to those areas that need it. The more rain in the Plains/TX/4 corners/Sierra Mountains region, the better chances the eastern US will have for a wetter winter. We need a wetter winter everywhere. A wetter winter brings increased chances for more snow.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Your homework is to read these links and see what they have to say. I don’t expect you to understand all this. You just need to worry about the big picture, I’ll take care of the small stuff. There will be short quiz to start lesson 2.
End Lesson 1….next winter weather class October 1
Our region’s winters and El Nino:
http://www.roanoke.com/weather/wb/217684
Condensed version: Based on history, flip a coin.
(This was before 09-10 winter, which would have slanted it slightly back to cold/snowy)
Evenin’ all. Glad to see the rain has cleared out of our area; such a dreary, icky day.
Totals from the area: 1.75″ for me on my northeastern side of FC and the same for relatives near Rocky Mount itself. We got blasted in NE Rke at work today and got 2.75″ after a heavy lunchtime downpour.
I see the accumulated rainfall total has eastern Franklin, western Bedford (thus the meager Goodview totals) and Campbell up to Lynchburg getting the least of anybody. My gauge shows this firsthand. I did get a tenth after I threw in the towel.. up to 1.6 in the big city of Redwood VA.
Here is the list of rainfall totals recorded across NWS-Blacksburg’s area through 5 p.m.
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201209182338-KRNK-NOUS41-PNSRNK
Made a small mistake on my last post…eastern Franklin, eastern Bedford (not western) and Lynchburg all the way up to Charlottesville… got shorted on rain. We’re in the lightest blue on NWS radar.
So far on the severe weather front east of us — a scattering of wind damage reports, no hail reports (not surprising — low-topped storms) and also no tornado reports.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120918_rpts.html
Wouldn’t be surprised if a couple surface later, if some of the wind damage reports turned out to be a brief EF-0 twister, but certainly nothing major. Just not warm and unstable enough. All of the other ingredients were there.
Quags: Think you’re definitely going to be wrong about 1 thing: “Rest of September … will be normal to above normal fall conditions for both precipitation & temperatures.” Looking cool and dry for the rest of September to me. Beyond that … no opinion yet, though I think we’ll be in for a warm spell in October and/or early November.
Thanks to LeoLady and Doug Griggs for their kind words about losing pets they are indeed members of the family, both now in doggie heaven playing ball and chasing bunnies. The rain ended a little earlier than I anticipated but still soaked in very nicely. Hopefully more will come next week as the pattern may be setting up for rain about every 7 days or so. I believe LeoLady made mention of Litchfield Beach S.C. And the weather there in about a week. Our son is in CharsletonS.C . doing graduate studies and I will check with him towards the end of the week for that time period. The coastal areas of S.C. are wonderful this time of year no crowds and great food and ocean swimming is still possible
Regarding Doug’s comment at #64 – there is a good documentary on the Hurricane of ’38 on PBS.org online as part of the American Experience series.
http://video.pbs.org/video/1497381366
And also Quagmaster, in reference to your 6:28 comment, La Nina has affected only the past TWO winters (2010-11 and 2011-12, but absolutely not 2009-10). Perhaps you made a typo?
I appreciate all that you typed. I would add two things for folks to be on the lookout for. A. And I consider this one to be immense, after Dave Tolleris’ brilliant assessment late last autumn. The position of polar vortex (vortices?). In especially 2009-10 and probably 2010-11, most of the time they were on the North American side of the North Pole. Last winter? On the Siberian or Eastern European side, with the exception of off the west coast of Alaska (Bering Sea), causing Nome, AK to have one of its most brutal winters in many decades. I don’t know if the NAO influences polar vortex positions, or vice versa, but if it is vice-versa, those vortices will dictate whether we have positive or negative NAOs.
And 2. The other gorilla, whether we will have negative NAO and/or AOs for a decent or even big chunk of the winter. If yes, 2009-10 all over again is unlikely but possible. But above average snow is probably likely. If not, probably a winter closer to the weak El Nino winters of 2004-05 and 2006-07, with mostly warm conditions and below normal
snowfall.
I haven’t looked back through the NAO history, but I bet the NAO readings during those 2004-05 and 2006-07 winters were more positive than negative.
About the rainfall amounts, you are very right, KM (and Matt). NG and I had our monthly dinner meeting tonight, and a couple who lives in Moneta (SW Bedford County in the SML area) said they hardly got anything over the past two+ days. I was stunned. They live only 35 miles from us, and only 30 from your house, Kevin, but what a difference!!!
Sometimes a system will do the Hardy Hop (as I think Betsy used to say here), and skip over the Roanoke valley and areas right along the Blue Ridge locally, then reform and hit east of here pretty hard. This one was very different.
Hokie Trax, thanks very much for the link. I am too tired to look at it now. But if I remember I will come back to it tomorrow after work. I have the “monster” route tomorrow (probably). Glad it wasn’t today!!! Mud and wet grass will be the only issues, which are nothing after what happened today.
My storm total in Blue Ridge was 1.48″, which matches exactly the reading at the Glade Creek IFLOWS. 1.20 inches fell today; 0.27″ on Monday and 0.01″ on Sunday.
Checked my gauge tonight and it has .55 so added to the previous 1.40 for 1.95 it is very close to the official Blacksburg total of 1.99.
The documentary on the 1938 hurricane is really interesting and reminds us how many more forecasting tools we have now.
I did the research into what the monthly NAO figures were during those weak El Nino winters of 2004-05 and 2006-07. And it was very apparent why they were mostly warm winters. Following are the NAO numbers starting with October and continuing through March.
2004-05: OCT. -1.10 then +0.73, 1.21, +1.52, -0.06, and -1.83 for March 05
2006-07: OCT. -2.24 (!!!) +0.44, +1.34, 0.22, -0.47, and +1.44.
Notice anything?? In both of those autumns, the NAO was very negative in October, then quickly went positive through January. This is only a sample of 2 years, but if I were a snow lover, I would be praying that the NAO doesn’t nosedive during October.
I looked at the first 15 minutes or so of the PBS documentary on the 1938 hurricane, and what struck me so far was not the weather, but the spartan existence many folks led. Many fishermen lived in “homes” very close to the Montauk, Long Island coastline that were “insulated” with seaweed. They applied fish oil to their slickers to help preserve body warmth. Amazing.
On the other hand, there are the NAO levels for those same OCT-MARCH months for 2009-10. Again, Oct was negative, at -1.03. It rebounded to just about normal, -0.02 in NOV. But then the onslaught began. -1.93, -1.11, -1.98, -0.88. But that was a moderate (practically strong) El Nino.