UPDATE 4:30 PM, 9/8: If you are outdoors Saturday, be prepared for passing showers and storms midday and afternoon
Keep an eye on Radar / Future Cast on Saturday by clicking here
UPDATE 4:30 PM: The severe weather threat has ended west of Lynchburg and Danville as cooler, more stable air has pushed in. As expected, the severe thunderstorm watch has been lifted for Roanoke and nearby localities. There are some showers in the cooler air behind the front, enhanced some by upslope northwest winds similar to what happens with winter snow squalls, but the threat of severe storms and torrential rain is over. END UPDATE
UPDATE 2:20 PM: Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Roanoke, Franklin, Botetourt, Patrick, Rockbridge, Bedford counties and eastward until 10 p.m. Expect it to be lifted long before that time, once this afternoon’s immediate severe weather threat pushes east. A somewhat disorganized line of showers and storms continues to move east from West Virginia and far southwest Virginia, while additional showers and storms are forming a broken line east of the Blue Ridge One thing to watch for is whether the eastern line strengthens while the western line weakens — this would be the “Blue Ridge jump” we’ve talked about some recently. Whichever line becomes the primary one, storms will have a greater threat of gusty winds as they enter more instability and greater shear, generally east of the Blue Ridge. Looking more like 3-4 p.m. for showers/storms to arrive in New River/Roanoke valleys, and it likely wont’ be the same experience for everyone, with some getting heavier rain and winds than others. END UPDATE
UPDATE 12:30 PM, 9/8: The Storm Prediction Center notes in a newly issued mesoscale discussion that a severe thunderstorm watch may be issued for the Roanoke and New River valleys eastward as a line of showers/storms in West Virginia advances into greater instability and shear near our region this afternoon. It appears that this line of showers and storms will arrive around 2-3 p.m. in the New River and Roanoke valleys with heavy rains, gusty winds and lightning possible. Farther north, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 10 p.m. for much of northern Virginia, as far south as Charlottesville and Staunton. The greatest atmospheric shear is farther north yet — there has already been a possible tornado reported in Queens, N.Y. END UPDATE
UPDATE 9:45 AM, 9/8: Based on radar and forecast model trends, the front and potential for a squall line appears to be a bit slower. The best chance of showers and storms will be in the 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. timeframe today. A longer period of sunshine will allow for greater daytime heating, which would increase instability and boost the chance for some strong to severe storms, with gusty winds as the major severe threat. Still, activity may not be “widespread or consistent,” as stated in a National Weather Service forecast discussion. The best plan for outdoor activities today: Go forward with them, but keep an eye on radar, be prepared for a period of showers and storms this afternoon, and possible storm-related delays.END UPDATE
Fall is making its first big move against summer, but that doesn’t come without some violence. A massive line of storms Friday evening and overnight has left behind hundreds of reports of wind damage — yes, part or all of it might even qualify as a “derecho” — along with some large hail, flooding and some fatalities in several states to our west. This line will move our way on Saturday, but it’s likely to lose a lot of steam during the cooler morning hours, and also as it encounters the shortening of its updrafts as it crosses the mountains. At some point Saturday, 
the line is likely to get a new shot of strength over central and eastern Virginia, as it encounters daytime heating. What happens to it in between, as its crossing our area, is subject to some conjecture, as forecast models differ somewhat. It is possible the line will push through Southwest Virginia late Saturday morning or early in the afternoon, with some locally gusty winds possible, before resurging east of the Blue Ridge. It is possible that it may weaken to just a broken line of showers moving through our region. Either way, if you have outdoor activities on Saturday (NRV SkyFest Air Show, Olde Salem Days, and football games at UVa and Virginia Tech come to mind), at least be prepared for passing showers and storms and a possible delay, probably sometime between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m., though we’ll have to monitor radar in the morning to see how the line has progressed. An all-day, wall-to-wall rain is not expected — most forecast maps are pretty meager on the rain amounts, too, in our region. It will move through quickly. The New River and Roanoke Valleys are included in the western edge of the slight risk severe zone (as of shortly after midnight Saturday; click here for latest from Storm Prediction Center), but the much greater risk for severe weather will be to our north and east, where greater daytime heating and/or shearing winds aloft will accompany the storms.
Once the cold front pushes through, a few days of highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s will result. There could very well be 40s in the typically cooler locations, generally west of Roanoke, by Monday and Tuesday mornings.
September 8, 2012 - 12:29 AM
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I for one can`t wait for these cooler temps,its been too hot and muggy for too long now!Bring on fall and some cooler weather.Low so far this morning only down to 67 now,Have a great Saturday all.
Looks like storms are falling apart as I am about to head to the golf course this morning! Good sign, don’t want to have to clean any more mess up like we had to after the Derecho. Maybe it will just bring us some rain, but the rain probably wont reform until Louisa or Goochland.
A couple of key grafs in the NWS-Blacksburg discussion this morning:
WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE…BASICALLY UNIMPRESSED WITH THE THREAT FOR SUCH ACROSS OUR CWA. BEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS TRACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING…AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FOR CONVECTION. INSTABILITY IS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA…TO MARGINAL ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. …
FOR POPS…HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FROM W-E DURING THE DAY BASED
ON THE THOUGHT THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.01
INCH…BUT ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR CONSISTENT.
CWA = County Warning Area, the counties the Blacksburg office is responsible for issuing warnings for in SW Va, SE WVa and extreme NW NC.
POPS = Probability of precipitation.
Thanks to Other John for posting the precip map in the previous thread. Very interesting to see the highest rainfall totals in the state focused in Lee County, the Mt. Rogers area, and Patrick/Carroll counties. In Grayson County alone there is a 20″ spread in annual precip from the eastern end of the county near Galax to the western end of the county near Mt. Rogers. Also, I never realized that the NRV and northern Shenandoah Valley were truly the “driest” areas in VA. Good info.
NWS-Blacksburg’s local WRF model at 2 p.m.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/wrf/wrf.php?fld=wrf_reflectivity&hr=12
And 3 p.m.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/wrf/wrf.php?fld=wrf_reflectivity&hr=13
But this is how it’s supposed to look now (9 a.m.) — and it’s not all that close.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/wrf/wrf.php?fld=wrf_reflectivity&hr=07
Front may be a bit slower than projected, which would mean later arrival this afternoon — but also could allow more daytime heating and more instability, with a bit higher risk of storms.
Thanks Kevin for the information about today’s forecast, especially NWS ‘unimpressed’ part. I acquired some really sweet 50 yard line tickets for the VT game today and want to go. Maybe the magic Hokie Bubble will be over us during the game.
Yesterday was a HOT but great day for Gobblerfest on the Drillfield yesterday. Alittle sunburn going around.
Will you be at the game Quags? I really enjoy our weather blog family year-round. I am not the running-models-scientific one…more of the ‘color commenter’ for Hokieburg. Kevin – maybe someday we should have a weather blog party and get to meet everyone in person! Perhaps the NWS in Hokieburg would host us.
Yes – Hokie Trax, I agree with you. I too am more of a color commenter for Dopplerville. We really do need to have a get together. I have said NWS site would be good and maybe we could get a tour of the place too!
Hope everyone has fun at the game today and “all of my friends who are there will stay dry”.
WSW winds getting gusty here in Radford; line of storms from middle TN up through Ohio valley seem to be getting more organized – they are lifting to NE but line is extending furth to the south. I suspect we will get a pretty good line of storms and wind within next 1-2 hours; very well developed line of storms from Bristol to Bluefield right now.
I’m layin 2 to 1 odds a football gets wet in B’Burg today. Any takers?
I would have given 10-1 odds Monday night. But a squall line is a different animal than sporadic tropical downpours. Will be hard-pressed to miss Lane Stadium again.
Roanoke on western edge of new severe thunderstorm watch.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0638.html
Here at the game in awesome seats..ponchos going on in preparation but only stray drops and some wind. Ominous clouds…hoping they slide by. Nearly half time. Much cooler!
A brief drizzle rain at Lane earlier but stopped. Nothing serious. I’m right up next to the club level and somewhat protected I’m seeing some sun trying to poke through. Marching Virginians finishing up. Go Hokies!
HokieTrax: Your account differs a little from what I seeing on Twitter — several reports of a “brief downpour” entirely contained within halftime. In any event, glad it’s not a washout.
Rain, breezes have hit quickly at my house in south Roanoke County. Now cooler and calmer.
Oh, HokieTrax: I see VT is wearing their special HokieTrax helmets just for you!
Temp in Blackburg has dropped 15 degrees in past hour. I heard there may even be some wet snow mixed in near Quinwood and Whitetop! Fall is here.
The high for the rest of the afternoon on Mt. Rogers according to NWS Point n Click….52 degrees. ENJOY
Wow, even my home got in on the rainfall action. 0.15 inches so far, but according to the radar map to the right side of this screen we might get a bit more. I even lucked out completely at work. It downpoured after I had unloaded the postal truck at 3:20 PM. Got literally a few drops on me after I parked the truck (after unloading it at the dock) and walked back inside. Temp on my car’s thermometer as I pulled away from the post office? 70!! A far cry from yesterday.
And UVA won by a point over Penn State, and of course VT beat the living daylights out of the hapless “rent-a-win” (love that term, KM!!) Austin Peay team.
Doppler Carol, you “went to the well” once too often with wishing everyone at Lane Stadium would stay dry. But it was a wonderful gesture and it sounds like the heaviest rain might have been at halftime.
I’ll have to say, that was the easiest 100 bucks I’ll make today. I wouldn’t give 49 points if VT was playing Cave Spring JV’s.
Yes HokieTrax, I’m @ the game. Time for post game party in lot 5. Little wet but we’re good. My seats on east side Section 15. Highlander shows 65 for temp. Love this fall wx. Head home Sunday
The wind flow chart really shows the Canadian faucet pouring its autumn riches on the lower 48. (And also the converging wind flow causing tornadoes in the Northeast)
http://hint.fm/wind/
Wow, that wind link shows not only the Manitoba Express coming in to the eastern USA, but also take a look at the Hudson River valley of eastern NY state. Strong winds flowing south-to-north. I clicked on NEXRAD radar and went to the screen that shows the NE-most sector of the USA, and sure enough, a line of what appears to be very strong t-storms is going through there.
Lots of wind this afternoon with the squall line. Some brief heavy rain but only “0.03″ inches was able to make it into the rain gauge. Temps have really dropped. About 67 now with a breeze.
Thanks Doug – I was hoping the rain would jump over Lane Stadium but it did hold off till half time! LOL
Wonderful cool walk back from the stadium. Still a moody sky here. Quags – East stands did probably get more rain. We had our backs to the West Club level and didn’t really get much at all. Most people left their ponchos on because it got cool! My post-game celebration is over at the Inn with our reunion group! And yes Kevin – was nice of the team to wear helmets in my honor.
And bring home a win too!
Latest NWS forecast low for early Tuesday morning in Blacksburg is at 46. Someone mentioned possiblity of upper 30′s in Greenbrier County, WV this week. Not sure who it was, but great call. Looks very likely now.
“Canadian faucet pouring its autumn riches” has to be one of the best quotes ever on this blog. Nice job KM!
I think Zach might have thrown that out there first — but I wasn’t in disagreement.
Danville recorded a 74 mph wind gust in storms today. Danville’s peak gust in the June 29 derecho was 49 mph.
Meanwhile, I happened to look outside a few minutes ago, and noticed a strange glow while I was in my driveway. Then came back in at 7:39 and NG and I were treated to a SPECTACULAR FULL RAINBOW over downtown Roanoke from our viewpoint (i.e., east) with a 2nd rainbow appearing briefly. That’s the one direction in which we have a great view.
About 5:30 Mr. My-body-is-used-to-temps-in-80s-with-humidity went out in the car to fill the gas tank and buy a few groceries. Wearing a t-shirt, flannel shirt, and long pants. And needed them. I wish the temps were like this yesterday when I delivered the “monster.” But this is a preview of coming attractions.
Well, I’m glad that several folks liked the uniforms that VT was wearing today. However, I despise all-white uniforms. They could have at least worn their maroon jerseys.
Hey, have any of you heard of any wind damage reports here in Virginia? Obviously other states were slammed both yesterday and earlier today. Two tornados in the Big Apple: an F-1 in Brooklyn and an F-0 in Queens. Yeah, those are child’s play compared to the huge ones that have ravaged other parts of the nation, especially in 2011. But before today there were only 8 tornados reported in NYC since 1985, according to a news report I just watched.
AHH I LOVE THIS COOL WEATHER.