Northwest winds from tundra bring prolonged cool, dry period to Southwest Virginia
Northwest winds, rotating around central U.S. high pressure with air originating from the Desert Southwest, and then drying and out heating up as they compressed blowing down the east side of the Appalachians, brought in the late June-early July heat wave. Northwest winds gusting above 80 mph on the evening of June 29 knocked out power for millions in the Virginias and nearby states, making the stifling heat unbearably worse. Northwest winds on this September Saturday — outflow from a poorly organized squall line that, and then breezes behind a Canadian cold front — are ushering in fall. With lows expected to drop into the mid 40s to low 50s by Monday and Tuesday morning over much of Southwest Virginia, and highs not expected to top 80 for a few days, behind a front that will drop as far south as Cuba, there can be little doubt that the tundra has made its first major autumn incursion into the eastern half of the United States. Temperatures late this week will moderate back into some low and maybe even mid 80s highs and lows floating around 60. Keep in mind, though, that is still very much normal for the first half of September — Roanoke’s normal high doesn’t get below 80 until Sept. 14, and Blacksburg’s doesn’t get as low as 75 until Sept. 16. What makes this even more likely to be truly the start of fall-like weather is that there are major indications that another, and possibly even cooler, air mass will drop down from the Arctic tundra next weekend or early the following week (10-day Euro model temperature anomaly map linked). One drawback to these serial Canadian air masses is that they are very dry, so folks who want rain and need rain, are not likely to get any. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center calls for zero rain in western Virginia over the next 5 days (and what is colored in for eastern Virginia is with tonight’s cold front). Temperatures will be cool to normal for the next couple of weeks, and it has a chance to go most or all of that time without measurable rain, too.
September 8, 2012 - 7:36 PM
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I just posted about seeing a gorgeous rainbow (on previous thread), and KM starts another thread, probably as I was typing it.
Yeah, I know. Shut up, Douglas. Done.
I always look forward to fall, but I don’t remember seeing such a dramatic day as today for ushering fall in. I guess only the other parents out there who have been tortured by the likes of sponge bob and Fred the movie can appreciate this, but I would not have been surprised to walk outside and see sponge bob singing his “Best Day Ever” song. And the possibility of a stronger cold front next week just makes it that much better.
The air we have is certainly refreshing. Was caught in a very heavy downpour in Bristol this afternoon at Walmart. I would estimate at least .50″ fell in that area. Got home to the Chapel and we had about .20″ out of the front. Ground is still very wet here from 3.30″ in the last seven days. Now at least five days of cool, bright sunshine and chilly nights. Loving it!!!
Doug: On last thread, you mentioned the tornado in New York City today. It came in along beach in Queens. Here is a photo:
https://twitter.com/SteveRudinABC7/status/244513109677592576/photo/1
Also, storm reports today. Danville’s 74 mph wind gust isn’t accounted for on this map, yet. As you can see, most of Virginia except northeast part is blank.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120908_rpts.html
Getting ready for bed but noticed the temperature has now dropped to 50 degrees here in the Chapel. The NWS says that Abingdon’s low will be 54 but the current temp in Abingdon is 54. Somebody needs to reassess that forecast. I would not be at all surprised to see the upper 30′s here in the Chapel by Monday morning. Opened all my windows this evening and had to close them a while ago. Not wanting to turn the heat on in the morning.
I probably will be on the blog pretty sparsely Sunday, but if you post comments, I’ll get them approved at some point. Looks like we have a long period when they’re will be little or no “breaking” weather.
Even after mentioning yesterday that I had not been below 70* since at least last Sunday, I was at 59* just before midnight. To the right it shows RRA was 64 at 10:54 PM. All this means that it will probably go down to 23* at King’s Weather Station in W-ville, and 19* at Burkes Garden …..
And for the first time since at least early July, I wish my lawn looked like it did a year ago. On September 7th of 2011, I posted that I had received 7.1 inches since Sept. 1st. I was actually asking for the rains to stop. After being the “Mayor of Brownsville” for weeks, clever Kevin dubbed me the “Mayor of Watertown.” Somewhere along in there I am pretty sure I posted that my lawn changed appearance from straw to the Emerald City …. in less than 10 days.
Speaking of the weather for this coming week, Robin Reed on Friday evening, just before he posted “7′s” version of the weekly planner, said that his weather team won’t have to work too hard starting on Sunday. Every day for Sunday through this coming Friday was posted as “Mostly Sunny.”
Also looks like I may have jumped the gun with my prediction of 3 or 4 straight days at RRA with highs below 80. Sunday will fit that bill, and maybe today (Saturday) did, although the temp soared here this morning right up to 10:30 or 11 AM, when it clouded up. But I think “7″ is calling for a high of 80 for ROA as early as Tuesday now.
According to wunderground, which might be wrong by a degree or so, the high Saturday at RRA spiked all the way to 84* at 1 PM or so, and the low was 60*, obviously at 11:59 PM.
There was some serious weather just south of Winchester, Va today around 2:00-3:00 pm today. Very high wind and rain. 35 mph was max on I-81.
Wow,what a difference a day makes.Low this morning so far a cool 51.I`ve been waiting for this.Cut the A.C.off last evening its been running nonstop since late June.Hope everyone has a great Sunday!Go Redskins!
Good Sunday Morning – 44 this morning up here on the ridge.
Burr. I had 46 while the nearby Kings Weather Station had 44. Kevin said the next blast will be colder in 10 days………so we’ll do some 30′s then I guess.
POSSIBLY even colder, I said. But you may be a little colder Monday and/or Tuesday morning.
We were a day early to clear, calm, ideal radiational cooling conditions this morning. So the lows are cooler than forecast.
I have 51 on my thermometer this morning just south of Roanoke.
NWS calling for 41 as our low in Galax tonight…if that verifys I bet we will see 38 in Woodlawn!!
Wow, got down to 52 here in Greene last night! Looks to be a cool dry week, weather channel has the hottest day at 81. No rain until next Monday & Tuesday and that’s at 60% right now. I need to overseed my yard within the next couple weeks to allow it time to grow UN before winter. Its usually a yearly task now with these summers just staying so hot! Just can’t bring myself to seed Bermuda grass into my yard, its just to invasive.
For those wanting some rain — there may be some chance the next jet stream trough digging in next weekend/early next week can spin up a low over the Midwest or South, pull up some Gulf moisture and then track it northeast. Almost a winter storm like setup. However, it seems that these patterns controlled by intrusions of Canadian air in September are usually pretty dry for us, and any effects from the slowly warming El Nino conditions in the Pacific usually don’t kick in til October.
Toasty 49* here this AM.
Of note in the Flashback: Tracking NRV History section of roanoke.com:
1987 (25 years ago)
-“Virginia Tech alumni, some still steaming about a summer of disruptive controversy over Hokie athletics, turned out by the thousands Saturday for Tech’s opening football game against the Clemson Tigers. Tech lost 22 – 10, but loyal fans…said after the game that they thought the team and its new coach, Frank Beamer, looked promising in their debut…”
1937 (75 years ago)
-“The first frost of the season formed here [Floyd] this morning.”
1912 (100 years ago)
-“During a rain and electrical storm which passed over Dublin on Saturday afternoon last lightning struck the residence of Superintendent E. L. Darst and played considerable havoc.”
Mike, regarding entry #10, I was driving in that storm on I-81 yesterday at mile marker 290, and that speed limit seemed to be for the 18 wheelers; for us in little cars (at least for mine) the speed limit was 0! Just as I pulled over with the rest of the cars I got a tornado warning on my phone and was told to seek cover immediately. I have never driven in worse weather, the wind was making it difficult to keep the cars in their lane and the trees and rain bands were twisting in circles in the wind. I saw that storm on radar before I left my daughter’s house, and I had a bad feeling about it. I should have stayed with my grandchildren for an extra day! I called my husband right after the warning and he told me what to do based on the interactive weather radar from Intellicast. The thermometer on my car went from 77 to 63 degrees as I drove into the storm. I am very thankful to have made it home.
On that note – I highly encourage anyone checking temperatures anywhere, for an accurate reading, go to wunderground, type in your town, then click on station select. There are several stations in each county, that are run from a trained weather watchers home, or a station set up by NWS.
I say this because the airports where most readings come from simply are not accurate compared to the rest of the county. Usually warmer. I remember the heat wave Hillsville reported a 100 degree reading, but the airport thermometer, (the one used), was the only one reporting. All others throughout the county were 6-8 degrees colder. It is ALWAYS warmer than the actual temperature.
With only about 2/10ths of an inch here since the evening of the 1st, and a dry forecast until at least next weekend, I ain’t waitin’ around. I’m doing something I haven’t done since July …. watering the driest area of the front yard.
I looked at the NAO and AO, and using the GFS Outlooks graphs, nothing important going on there, although the AO looks to be running a little positive this coming week before declining to neutral again.
Since this is a gorgeous day and a slow day here, I thought a few of you might be a bit interested in the following trend I have noticed by looking back at the records for the past 6 months. In each of the six months from April and including the first 8 days of September — with the big exception of June — each month has run a lot warmer for the first 8 to 10 days than the remainder of the month.
I’ll try to recap as briefly as I can.
April: First 10 days averaged a +6.0, month overall was only a +1.4.
May: First 8 days were a whopping +9.5, month overall was +4.3.
July: First 9 days were also a blistering +9.5 (while many of you were without power!!), month overall was +4.1.
August: First 9 days were a +2.4, month overall was a -0.2.
September: First 7 days were a +7.6, and the rest of the month certainly won’t be anything that warm, not even vs. normal, not with this current return to normal or even cool stuff and another, possibly stronger cold front coming through in a few days.
Zach: A lot of those weather stations on wunderground give a generally good idea of local temperature differences. Most of them, however, probably wouldn’t meet specifications to be included in rigorous official climate observation statistics because they aren’t held to precise, supervised standards of equivalent instrumentation, height above ground, shadedness and distance from buildings/roads, etc. They have a list of suggestions online for that, but no way to guarantee that each site does that. I would hope most would, many folks installing them being truly weather-interested people (like wd, and maybe some others on here who link a personal weather station). I would therefore not say the wunderground weather stations are more “accurate” just that they are more extensive in coverage of local areas.
Too bad the weather service doesn’t have the funds to at least do a 1-mile grid of weather stations with precise specifications. Or at least a system to confirm the personal weather stations on standards (but then, would everyone want government employees coming to their house to tell them how to run a weather station?)
Kevin, a one mile grid wouldn’t cut it. Not far enough out from the heat sink to give a representive reading. Zack, you nailed it. I’ve said all along that one offical reporting station located in the asphalt jungle was a joke. And used to represent the climate for the entire valley, and issued as gospel in print for travel guides and incentives to move, work here. Sorry Kevin, but you need to quit beating the drum for a badly misrepresenting weather station, when it concerns 100,000′s of folks, except for ita own 1/2 mile location. Most any quality PWS will do as good a job, only not having the stamp of accuracy or approval the NWS demands. Yea, right. Doesn’t make much diiference when it’s 40/50/60* or higher, but is a huge difference when somebody works downtown and leaves work listening to the airport report a 34* temp and they get on 221 and the snow/ice is sticking.
I am not arguing with Kevin’s 7:25 PM comment, but Zach, if the Hillsville airport was 6-8 degrees warmer than every wunderground site in the county, I agree fully with you. Odds are extremely good that the Hillsville airport temp was wrong, at least on that particular day.
Since I haven’t looked at the CPC multi-day outlooks in a week, I thought I would give them a quick look now, fully expecting them to again show us (SW Virg.) being drier than normal, especially on the 6-8 day. NOPE. Looks like everybody west of the Blue Ridge (or maybe it is I-81) is slated for a 33% chance of being wetter than normal on the 6-8, and on the 8-14, Far SW Virg. is supposed to be normal and from Bristol N and E is again 33% wetter. HOWEVER, today’s maps are strictly computer-generated, so I think the NRV Link-man or KM or me (if I remember, which I won’t) needs to post or tell what the Monday afternoon CPC multi-days are showing. The big story on the temps is that the 6-10 day outlook shows a major league cool spell centered in Iowa-Neb.-Kansas, and moving over us on the 8-14 (Sept. 17th-23rd) timeframe …. we are in the 50% area, with the center of the cold over Illinois and Missouri.
Hokie Trax..
I love the way those old stories were
written back at the end of the 19th century.
I-ve read a good number of those from here in Texas
in the late 1800-s… they had a flair for the “flashy” story.
“Electrical storm” ..I think thats about to
totally pass out of usage.
Good stuff.
Michael Hoback, are you out there? I will hereby dub you what KM named me last September 7th or 8th ….. the Mayor of Watertown. Take it as a big honor.
Named tropical storms. Michael is or was a decent-sized hurricane, but is in the middle of the ocean. Leslie was kind to Bermuda and missed her to the east. According to TWC, only one other time has the 12th named trop storm of the season happened earlier than Leslie did, Juan in 1995. Tomorrow is the “peak” of the Atlantic tropical storm season. wd, you offered odds about the VT game on Saturday, and would have won if anyone had bet against you (I would have bet with you, not AGAINST you). I now wager (even money) that there will be no more than 18 named storms in the Atlantic in 2012, and with Michael already there, I am claiming that we won’t get more than 5 additional named storms. Any takers? Kevin, you are not allowed in on this one ….. you know too much. LOL
WD: I don’t think you understood what I meant by a 1-mile grid. I mean putting a physically identical weather instrument, held to precise specifications, on each grid point every square mile over the entire country — urban, rural, suburban, etc. Heck, I’d love to have a 100-meter grid, but that’s probably beyond impractical. So you and I are really arguing the same thing — that one thermometer in one place doesn’t do justice for temperatures. However, while you can personally vouch for your personal weather station location, you can’t personally and individually vouch for each and every person who links on that site. That requires a third-party overseer holding these instruments to precise standards. A couple of feet in placement matters a lot in some situations — it can be the difference in a 32 and a 38 on a morning of prime radiational cooling, for instance.
And WD: I can usually tell if it’s a country person or a city person disagreeing about the official temperature, because a country person will say it’s obviously too hot, while a city person will tell me it’s obviously too cool. Remember that 104 back on June 29 at Roanoke Regional? I was queried by a local publisher because he thought that was obviously too low. Here is his blog post:
http://fromtheeditr.blogspot.com/2012/07/how-hot-was-it-really.html
To 200,000-plus folks living in Roanoke/Salem/lower elevations of Roanoke County, the airport temperature is going to be far more meaningful to their daily lives than what your thermometer shows on the Knob or mine shows at 1,400 feet just south of the city.
As for Hillsville, don’t know specifics about that station, so I can’t comment on it in particular.
I use 2 separate weather station thermometers at my house to kinda average the temps we get here in Woodlawn. Been doing this for over 12 years here so I’ve kinda got an idea of how close I am to official reports from Hillsville airport or the various weather stations in the immediate area. That’s how I’ve learned I am 3 to four degrees colder than the surrounding reports. Right now I have 51.6 on one and 50.2 on the other one. With the clear skies and no wind I’m still betting on belw 40 tonight.
Kevin you nailed it. It’s impossible to be “accurate” to the T, you have alot of people running these things that don’t know a lick of what they are doing. On the same token though I always wonder why most airports (not just Hillsville) seem to report alot warmer than most surrounding places. I think if anything, it is evidence to the very local differences within out area that our so prevelant. There are so many things that affect the temperature. I think one particular to the airports is a mini heat island effect. This is strictly just thought, but I would think most of the sensors are located on or near buildings, and on our near tarmac. Also, airports are out in the open, often exposed to more sun, and flat land. Would theoretically think that these things combine to make a bubble of sorts that might spike the temperatures. It’s not just Hillsville, it’s virtually every airport I’ve ever came across, they seem to run a few degrees higher than most.
Exactly wd exactly. Great conversation.
Zach: You are in college. You may need a master’s thesis one of these days. If you can prove what you just said about airports, that would be a pretty good one.
With regard to weather stations, it is one thing to have enough reports to get a pretty good idea of what it’s like outside in various local areas, and another to have what is needed for the level of precision needed for climatic studies and statistics. The Weather Underground personal weather station network achieves the first and can be a valuable resource for that. In most cases, it wouldn’t meet the standards for the second, with too much variation in equipment, placement, etc.
The airport-based stations we’ve talked about not all the same. Some are National Weather Service standards, some are Federal Aviation Administration standards. It’s far from a perfect network, but funding and practicality prevent a tighter grid of more precise instruments. Perhaps technology will allow something closer to that someday soon.
Temp here right now is 53.5*. Has dropped from 55.5* when I first awakened at 5:07. Starry skies with a partial moon, and twinkly. I think this is the coolest it has been here since June. OK, Rick, please tell us how cold it got at King’s W.S.
Looks like this past Sunday morning will actually end up being the coolest morning of the week, not this morning or Tuesday morning. Not sure anyone was expecting Sunday morning would be the coolest. Looks like upper 30′s may not be realized anywhere in the region after all.
You may be right, Mike — but the high is more centered over the region Tuesday. If there aren’t clouds interfering with the radiational cooling, it may still have a shot to equal or edge out Sunday, which was definitely cooler than expected.
41 on both thermometers this morning at 6:45am in Woodlawn…I just barely missed it!! Feels wonderful!
My thermometer hit the same low as Sunday morning — 51 — but like Mike I’m noticing most official sites are a little warmer this morning.
We dipped to 46 Sunday morning in New River, 49 this morning. It has felt great, I love this time of year as we transition away from the summer heat.
You are right Kevin. 1 mile grids averaged out would be ideal if certified. But, that ain’t gynna happen anytime in the near future. I put up a post over a month ago using averages from PWS’s located at representative locations scattered around the valley. I didn’t include mine in that data simply for the reason of elevation. That would have lowered temps because I’m over 1800′. The stations I selected are high dollar units and not only for the homeowner. But,[selected from elevations from the airport to 1499'] it goes back to what is considered as acceptable. They have not been offically certified. If you can find post I’m referring to, it might be an excellent time to put it up while we are having this discussion. Not certifable but accurate enough for practical purposes. I also feel this data is useful primarily for temps, since rainfall, wind and all other readings vary greatly from one location to another.
KM, reason I asked if you would put up the post on average temps from PWS’s was I
Gotme again. I looked but failed to find what I wanted. Thought there was an archived list of months but can’t find where now.
It was 50 this morning in our backyard – elevation 2546 ft.
Loving this fall weather guys! Keep it coming!!! cool!!!!!!!!!!!!
When I pulled out from my house this am, my car thermometer said 56. The kiddos had to wear light jackets this morning, but the temp felt great!
For the storm on Saturday that quickly rolled through, I received more wind than rain. Our power flicked off momentarily. Afterwards there was a beautiful rainbow that my oldest daughter and son saw and took pictures of. It was a double rainbow from our viewpoint.
WD: Archived list of months is last thing on the bottom right side of the blog.
Kevin, where’s that next “soon to be named” tropical storm going to head?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Thanks KM, but easy was the route I was looking for, and since the search feature didn’t turn it up, I don’t have the time to read a bunch of posts to find it. It didn’t amount to anything anyway.
I don’t really have any better search capability for comments in this system than you do.
Rick: Euro runs today curve the soon-to-be Nadine over open water. 0Z Euro develops a second tropical system closer to U.S., west of Nadine, but also remaining out to sea. 12Z Euro develops the season’s first nor’easter by Day 9-10 moving from inland Carolinas to Newfoundland.
I alluded in one comment to some chance of a low spinning up in the South or Midwest (Gulf to Great Lakes, Rockies to Atlantic, literally) when the next trough digs in, and the 12Z Euro may be hinting at one possibility with that.
It will be hard for tropical systems to move in to the Atlantic coast with this current weather pattern, but something could get pulled northward into the U.S. by the trough out of the Caribbean or Gulf.
Looks like prime radiational cooling will now set up for Tuesday morning with official forecasted low at 44 in Blacksburg. Maybe someone will hit the upper 30′s tonight after all.
Just posted new regarding Tuesday morning lows. A wisp of wind or some thin clouds can always get in the way of verifying lows like that, but it certainly seems a good chance some outlying area will dip below 40.