UPDATE 9:30 AM, 9/20: Now we resume our early fall coolness, already in progress
UPDATE 9:30 AM, 9/20: Clouds kept low temperatures well above forecasts on this Thursday morning, mostly upper 40s to mid 50s — only 58 at Roanoke. The next 3 days will be a little warmer, 70s highs, 50s lows, mostly, maybe even a few low 80s by Friday, before the next major cold front arrives Saturday night with the coldest air we’ve seen since spring. END UPDATE
The rain is gone, and a cold front is sweeping through overnight that will sweep out the brief return to mugginess we have experienced. This will return us to the cool, dry Canadian air we experienced much of last week. Highs will struggle to hit 70 Wednesday, and morning lows on Thursday will likely be in the 40s across almost all of Southwest Virginia. We’ll warm up briefly back to near 80 for highs and mostly 50s for lows by Friday and Saturday before a stronger, though mostly dry, cold front arrives over the weekend. This front will be strong enough that Wisconsin and Minnesota may well see some accumulating snowfall by Saturday. Here, it will drive the lows back into the 40s, and perhaps by Monday and Tuesday morning, even some 30s. There may be even a chance of scattered frost in some of the colder spots west of Interstate 81 — as of now, doesn’t look like a widespread frost threat, certainly not a killing frost. The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10-day temperature outlook puts the best likelihood of colder than normal temperatures right smack over us. The pattern remains favorable for repeated shots of cool, dry Canadian air, as hot high pressure dominates the West Coast, its clockwise rotation driving the colder air masses out of Canada into the central and eastern U.S. An early fall can resume after a brief interruption. You will be seeing more and more streaks of colors in the trees with cool mornings ahead.
September 18, 2012 - 11:43 PM
RSS feed 
I was reviewing some of the later comments from yesterday’s thread and you have a good memory Randy. Yes, I did mention Litchfield Beach, SC. We are leaving Sunday morning and will spend the week there next week. We are hoping for good weather. I will welcome any and all forecasts you may have for the area. We enjoy going this time of year as it is much less crowded, cheaper and the beach is dog friendly. However, the weather can be a toss up with the changing of the seasons. Last year was muggy,hot and stormy and a few years ago we were brushed by a tropical storm whose flooding trapped us in the rental house twice. I had to swim the dog out to find a dry spot for him to go to the bathroom. We are due for a low humidity sunny trip this year. Lets just hope that is what we get.
Bring it on! I love fall temperatures.
Are any of you having trouble with the NWS forecast site? For the last two days when I enter “Pulaski, Va” the page defaults to the county forecast. If you select a county out of the Blacksburg CWA, it works fine. I mostly miss being able to click on the radar easily. I emailed the webmaster but have not gotten a reply.
I’ve noticed that, too, Mark. Probably some kind of technical glitch they’ll get fixed. I’ve seen it do that before for short periods of time, but this has been at least 2 days.
Tuesday ended up with not a single tornado report anywhere in the U.S.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120918_rpts.html
Surprised by this, considering the shear. I expected at least a handful of tornadoes given the shear available. The missing instability ingredient made the difference.
I slept in till after 8 am this morning but when I came down, the temperature was sitting on 45 degrees. Not sure how low it went this morning. Turned some heat on for the first times.
I have a son that lives just south of Raleigh. He said they missed a good chance for a tornado yesterday if the storm they got was any indication.
I’ve seen lesser shear, similar or lesser instability situations spin out a few tornadoes in the Piedmont and toward the coast. Quite a few wind damage reports, so not a total pass on severe weather. Always possible a couple of those were caused by a weak tornado. But, usually, tornadoes are over-reported initially, not undercounted. Surprised there wasn’t even 1 report from someone who thought they were seeing or experiencing a tornado.
Did anyone besides me feel what could have been a minor earthquake around 4:55 am today?
Kevin,
NWS Sterling had a report of a funnel cloud in Culpeper county about 1:45 pm yesterday. That’s a close to a tornado report as I’ve seen.
I’ve been surprised at how much water the ground actually soaked in versus had run off. I don’t have any large puddles of water or anything in my yard. I guess that is a testament to how “dry” we actually were.
An interesting discussion of many factors that go into predicting the upcoming winter weather. And they might be right?
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179
To Doug (Comment 65 yesterday), yes our area was hit pretty hard with heavy rain. Based on what I heard from the local news last night, the storm total for Knoxville was around 6″ (give or take), but some areas closer to the Cumberland Plateau had more like 7″. Pretty amazing. There were actually some flooded roads in the area, but fortunately my basement did not flood (this time).
Updated rainfall: After checking two rain gauges, the total came up to 2.10″. I don’t trust an automated gauge but the old timey ones don’t lie.
JP…
what area are you in..
Could have been sonic boom from a military plane..
I havent heard any reports of any earthquakes.
Doesnt mean someone in your area isnt doing underground work.
I have read of something possibly going on in Va back
in early March.
It’s started. Dogwoods are starting to turn along with a few maples. It’ll be early this year by at least a week, maybe more. Like the rest of the season has been.
Leo Lady I will check with our son on Friday for the up coming weather next week. It has been hot and humid this week so far. When I get in this afternoon will check gauge for yesterday’s total
JP…
Closest Seismic activity to VA was in the Virgin Islands early this morning. Here’s the USGS links for earthquakes:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/pr12263003.php
Rick, that was the same link I posted yesterday as part of my winter weather outlook. But who cares what I post or say anymore. I’m just some kook out in space who has no clue.
Many Thanks, Randy. I will check back.
Thanks Quagmire for posting the earthquake map. I was planning to do the same as soon as I could get back to a computer.
Sorry to repeat your link Quag. Yesterday was so busy, I didn’t get to all the posts.
Quags, I care what you post. And you are DEFINITELY NOT some kook out in space! We may not see eye to eye all the time, especially when some models predict a big snow 5 days in advance while other entities are not on board, at all. That doesn’t mean that the models are automatically wrong, but I feel that that far in advance they should be taken with a grain (or 101) of salt.
Keep posting, GQ!!
By the way, what sayeth you about what I posted near the end of the previous thread, about the polar vortex situation and of course the NAO/AO?? I am a bit surprised that neither KM nor you commented on that today.
Rachel, I am glad that you had no flooding at your home. And thanks for the info about rainfall totals in your general area.
Quags, please keep on posting. I care what you say, even if I may not agree with some of your snowfall outlooks. And you are DEFINITELY NOT some kook from outer space. Were you making a joke in that post …. or are you feeling depressed?
By the way, Glen Q, did you happen to see the comments I posted late last night, near the end of the previous thread? About the importance (In my opinion) of the position of polar vortex/vortices (spelling?) and of the NAO and AO? I am a bit disappointed that neither Kevin nor you commented on them so far today.
And Mr. Brand, thanks very much for posting your rainfall total. I am a bit surprised that I got a bit more than you. However, my 2.5 inches included 0.10 from Sunday. Kevin-me-boy outdid both of us, as well as quite a few other folks.
Insofar as rattlings..earthquakes,,,etc etc…
Just remember they had to build Mount Weather
years ago..and I imagine there was some underground
blasting going on. (I worked underground years ago
in Va…and believe me when you are 4 or 500 feet
from the blast underground it can be a soul finding experience.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Weather_Emergency_Operations_Center
Was just doing some research on that live weather blogs Rick posted earlier.
They have a link to all the annual snow data for plenty of places throughout the US and I found some interesting stuff..
Beckley, WV averages more snow per year, 60″, than Green Bay Wisconsin.
Pittsburgh, PA averages somewhere close to 40″, which kinda surprises me given as they are in a tough spot to get a pure snowstorm ( Most go west, or too far east).. Guess they do get some lake effect, some clippers, over-running, etc.
Elkins averages 70″ a year, which makes it right up there with the snowiest places in New England.
Knoxville averages 15″ per year.. Which is surprising to me as well, seeing as they don’t have any cold air damning. (I can’t remember the last time the upper TN Valley got a big snow)
What got me… Mount Airy/Winston/Gboro NC average only around 9″ a year. Roanoke, only about 100 miles to the north averages somewhere around 24″..that’s over double. Same elevation, just a small shift in lattitude.
Growing up in the mountains just north of these areas, we averaged I would say probably between 30-40″ a year roughly. Just crazy to see how much variation can occur over such small areas.
Interesting stuff. (sorry for length of post)!
Adjusting my last post.. I’d say probably between 28-38″ is more acurate.. I think our average statistically is somewhere in the low 30′s.
Which brings me to something else. I’d wager my paycheck that over half of these “statistics” aren’t too accurate. I know just from checking some of the stats locally over the years, there are plenty of missing years, missing storms, and just reports that are down right not accurate for the given area. Much like the airport temperature thing we were talking about last week haha.
Adjusting the last post… the 28-38″ is in reference to my hometown, Hillsville/Fancy Gap in Carroll County.
Apparently, the Enter Sandman ‘ceremony’ at the beginning of home Hokie football games registers about 4.3 on the Richter scale!
For fun: http://scitechnica.com/miscellanea/vt_miami_football_earthquake
Why are people comparing this winter to 02-03 and 09-10? I cant remember 02-03, was it a snowy and cold winter? How much snowfall was there? I see where Nasa is now predicting a cold and snowy winter!
Hey, joe or Quags (or anyone), what on earth was happening in the ROA airspace at 10:48 PM?? Sounded like one or two military jets made low-level, high-speed passes right over our house. Very loud.
I heard that too, Doug. Also about 6:30 p.m.
Zach: New statistics based on 1981-2010 data, and recently readjusted downward slightly (weather service let me know about it this week) have adjusted Roanoke’s annual normal snowfall down to 16.6 inches. My own research shows that about 17 inches is more reflective of the past century, too. The 1960s skew the data upward toward 2 feet, but the previous decades and latter decades are generally much less snowy.
Jared: 02-03 was a weak-moderate El Nino winter of frequent small to medium snows. Most sites in mid-Atlantic were about 20-30 percent percent above normal in snowfall. Before 09-10, it was the snowiest winter since of the 2000s at most locations in our general area. Actually had more individual snow events than 09-10, but not the big dumps.
I’ve barely been on today so haven’t had a chance to comment on much in depth.
Jared, they are comparing this winter to 2002-03 and 2009-10 almost certainly because those two winters were El Nino winters, and this one is predicted by some folks to be one, also. But they are ignoring the fact that 2004-05 and 2006-07 were also El Nino winters, too. I think they are exhibiting bias. If an El Nino develops, it will almost certainly be A. a weak one; and B. a short-lived one. Just like those of ’04-’05 and ’06-’07.
2002-03 had a healthy amount of snow and lots of snowfalls, especially in Blacksburg, and 2009-10 was very big, of course. The two winters I mentioned were not. But that doesn’t mean that even if this winter has a weak and short-lived El Nino, that it will be a less-than-normal one for snow. NAO, AO, and polar vortex situation and other factors will determine that.
Doug…
Quags and I both posted some bits and pieces on an earlier post
of you guys being in the vcnty of low level training routes.
Back in the early 80-s used to see them quite a lot all around
Franklin County and Smith Mountain Lake.
I think they use nighttime as training for FLIR.
Forward Looking Infrared Radar.
They may even have barns etc mapped as targets..
They get readbacks as to if their “shot” was on target.
They get readbacks in the cockpit.
They identify “targets” before they go on these missions.
Isnt technology great!!
No way to know for sure what the “mission” was..but thats the
best guess I can give you for now.
Even the ATC Controllers wouldnt be able to tell you what their
mission actually was.
Call sign..and where they were going is about all they could do for you.
I saw what looked like a fighter jet flying over yesterday evening, and then later we heard the slower, low flying aircraft that rattled the windows. I grew up next to an AFB, so it was daily routine there, F4s, A10s, and F16s so low you would think you could see the pilots, but I have not seen that much low flying activity here before.
Cap’t, since you is a kooked out space cadet same as me, whatcha think about a little ole fashioned Star Trek warp drive?
http://news.yahoo.com/warp-drive-may-more-feasible-thought-scientists-161301109.html
#’s 15 & 18: It felt like it was occurring subterranean, but then again I was asleep and it woke me so who knows. I live in the Cave Spring/Poages Mill area of SW Roanoke County. It looks like the closest seismic activity that morning was in southeast Missouri, but it was a small one and not likely the source of what I felt. Then again, there was also a small quake reported by a number of people in Concord, NH last weekend that, to date, does not show up on the USGS website either.
I seem to remember 04/05 being a mild and wet, while 06/07 was dry and mild.
Zach, I haven’t lived in Knoxville that long yet, but I too think the 15″ average of snow seems high. Perhaps that average has lowered too with the new stats Kevin mentioned…maybe adjusted down to an average of a “dusting” per year!
Speaking of noisy planes, a B-25 Mitchell bomber and a P-51 will arrive to Hokieburg on Friday to the VT airport. The P-51 will do a flyover during the Corps formal retreat at 1645 that day and then the B-25 will do a flyover before the noon game with Bowling Green and the P-51 does one at half time. These old planes are very loud – love when they come to visit. They do practice runs on Friday. Trying to figure out how to get a ride in the B-25!
http://www.vtnews.vt.edu/articles/2012/09/091112-corps-bowlinggreenflyover.html
Yes – there were 2 military planes that flew over around 10:45 pm last night – up here on the Doppler Ridge. They were low but nothing unusual for us here. There were 4 earlier in the evening around 8:30pm that flew between my house and the neighbor up the road. I expected the coyotes to start howling after all of that commotion but they were quiet – normally they will howl.
Very foggy up here this morning and was surprised there was not a fog advisory. I couldn’t see the end of the driveway! But with the sun up now, the fog is burning off.
Michael H- I am glad to read that you slept till 8 – hope it was a restful night for you.
Everyone enjoy the gorgeous day today!!!
Clouds have disrupted radiational cooling and kept morning low temperatures well above forecasts. Roanoke got no lower than 58 and Blacksburg has been rising since 3 a.m. after a low near the 50 degree mark.
Nate: 04-05 was mild and a little on the dry side, but ended with a cold period late February to mid March, a 6-12-inch areawide Feb. 28 snowstorm and a couple of smaller snows into March. 06-07 was indeed dry and mild through December and January, but turned very cold relative to normal in February with a 2-5 inch Alberta clipper snow on 6-7.
Snowfall is one of the most troublesome statistics for long-term averages. Standards of measurement have changed over the years. Most sites have gaps in recording periods. Accumulation can vary greatly with as little as 50 feet in elevation when it’s close to 32, and with any minor differences between concrete-encased urban locations and a neighborhood with trees less than a mile away. And it’s such a chaotic event depending on where storm systems track. There are cold, dry winters with little snow. There are mild winters with 1 or 2 storms producing big amounts. All weather statistics have a degree of chaotic noise in them, but snowfall is particularly prone to it.
Zach, Rachel: I’m seeing Knoxville with 6.5 inches of snow listed as normal.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/?n=tysclimate
Something else in Knoxville’s statistics above — the incredible -24 record low on Jan. 21, 1985 — brings us back to the polar vortex thing Doug mentioned in the last thread. In January 1985, the polar vortex — the swirl of the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere, which can be in 1, 2 or 3 different lobes — actually physically plunged into the central and eastern United States, for the first time since 1899. A location near Hudson Bay can lead to extreme cold in eastern U.S. So short answer to your comments: Yes, the position of the polar vortex/vortices is critically important in how cold the temperature is during winter.
Kevin, could you instruct, or provide a link, on how to check the weather data like you provided above for Knoxville, only just open where you can check various locations in SW Va? I tried, and couldn’t ‘make it work’. Apologies for flunking what is elementary, I’m sure.
Crooked road: I wish it were elementary. Unfortunately, there is a lack of a consistent approach nationally providing this kind of information.
One place to start: National Weather Service websites. Click on the region you are interested in on the map below, look for “Local” under the “Climate” heagin on the left side of each NWS local website (that much has been made consistent) and then click under the “Local Data / Records” tab up top and there often some appropriate links to local climatic information.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov
OK, I’m back. Not done posting by any means…Back up in Halifax…Nova Scotia that is.
While I have some time until I hit the air around 2ish, let’s get caught up.
Doug, yes the AO/ NAO act in congruence with the Polar Vortices & some other teleconnections. I will discuss this more in detail as I move along in Lessons 2-4 in my winter weather class. 10 lessons total which will take us to Turkey Day. You will be surprised at what I will show. Besides, “KOOK” for me stands for “Keepers of Odd Knowledge” Society of which I am a charter member.
A correction to my initial forecast for the remainder of September into the first week of October.
It appears the models & outlooks will indeed show a slightly below to near normal trend for both temperatures & precipitation as corrected by Kevin. Here are the links from the CPC…
8-14 day temp outlook
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.01.gif
8-14 day precip outlook
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.02.gif
My original thinking is that September would end up with normal to slightly above normal averages on temps & rain. With this cool off to usher in the Autumnal Equinox, September will end up cooler than the norm with rainfall close to average if not slightly above in some areas as a whole.
My apologies to Rick for whining about your posting from liveweatherblogs.com
Rick, if you find any other interesting tidbits, please share & that goes for everyone here!
Speaking of liveweatherblogs.com here is some more excellent info. Mike Masco from ABC 2 in Baltimore has a great update for today. Here’s a link to the Thursday update:
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=7643&Itemid=179
This will dovetail into my upcoming lessons & confirms my corrected forecast from above & what to what Doug was saying about the NAO/AO. Of course, it’s also what Kevin has been saying on this site as well. Here’s what caught my attention from Mike’s blog:
“So, two questions will be answered in this post. Will temperatures stay cool going through October? And, Will it stay that way?
Now that we are losing the long days and short nights our temperatures will cool natural in response to the change in sun angle which automatically locks in the notion 90s will be scarce to non-existent in October & 80s will be few and far between. Overnight temperatures will stay at average levels and warm nights will be confined to the first couple of weeks in October. These are the natural processes of the start to fall.
NAO’s ROLE IN TEMPERATURES
Yes, NAO, three letters that shorten the term for a weather variable we watch called “NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION”. Simply point when it’s negative we get cool/cold; when positive we stay mild/warm. It’s a little more complex than that but just know it’s a weather variable that is far more important than any other factor we look at in the weather world. Without that being negative there is not a shot down under we stay cool!
The trend through September has been negative and in fact VERY NEGATIVE.”
Here’s Mike Masco’s weather blog from abcnews2.com in Baltimore. A must read for us fall-winter weather enthusiasts:
http://www.abc2news.com/dpp/weather/weather_blogs/mike-masco-october-2012-forecast-looks-chilly-
As far as Military Flight Training goes, it seems as though the DOD is engaged in more frequent exercises lately. This morning our route to Halifax took an inland course instead of over the water due to US Navy exercises off shore in the Atlantic. More later….
I see the CPC, as of this morning, has totally bought into the idea of a southern tier precipitation El Nino for the winter.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/p.gif
Who was that brilliant blogger that suggested a month ago that the hurricane season for the USA might already be over for the year? Folks at Accu might agree with you.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-atlantic-storms-to-av/76223
KM, as always, your info is stellar! Thank you very much for the direction & assistance…
Hokie Trax – thanks for the info about the planes at VT this weekend. I will keep an eye open and an ear too – for the air traffic.
Rick: It was Randy Oakey about a month ago declaring no Atlantic coast hurricanes. My take at the time was that I leaned that way but was unwilling to call the season “over” so early. Now that we’re near peak of Atlantic hurricane season, seems very likely East Coast will be spared this season. Randy will be right.
Also very likely we go an unpecedented seventh hurricane season without a Category 3 or stronger hurricane hitting the US.
And don’t forget me, Kevin, about the blogger that predicted a big reduction in Atlantic trop storms and hurricanes after mid-September. On or about the end of August, with Leslie already named and M about to be named (the 13th named storm), I predicted that there would be no more than 18 (or was it 16? I’ll go with 18) named storms for the whole season. You are right about Randy being the one who predicted no storms hitting the east coast, which is still accurate. And his prediction was before mine.
Sop if both Randy’s and Doug’s predictions come true, it will be another case of an Oakey-Griggs team coming through.
And my prediction was simply following up and getting specific about something you posted way back, Kevin, that there was a pretty good chance that the 2012 trop storm season was going to be “front-loaded,” because of the limiting effects once El Nino got closer to happening. Even though there is no official El Nino yet, temps in the 3.4 area of the eastern Pacific Ocean have been warm since late July and August.
Cap’t and Mr. Griggs. Good posts and thanks. A lot of it went over my head but did get some of it. And that goes for all the other posters that provide facts, trivia, old data. Fine job by all.
Thank you very much, wd. Trouble is, I went huntin’ through the “threads” of late August and the first 4 or 5 days of September, and I cannot find when I made that comment …..
Kevin, Rachel
6.5 sounds MUCH more reasonable. I was going off the liveweatherblogs link that Rick posted.
I would agree 100 % with what the weather service said about updated records.
Here is bit on NASA investigating Nadine in their unmanned drones which I mentioned earlier with the remnants of Isaac over the Gulf (which coincidentally would have been named Nadine)
http://phys.org/news/2012-09-nasa-hurricane-mission-explores-tropical.html
Here also is a link to NHC’s high seas forecast.
You can see why shipping interests would find this valuable.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
CPC 8-14-day outlook has that El Nino look to it … wet, cooler than normal in Southwest and Southeast, warmer than normal and dry across Pacific Northwest and northern Plains.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
I saw in one of Kevins previous blog posts
this subject..Acorns and relationship to the coming winter.
I lived in a house with a tin roof. We had a huge Chestnut Oak
outside hanging over where I slept.
Every fall when we-d get a strong north wind that tree would let loose
a limbfull of those acorns. It sounded like a hail storm.
Chestnut Oak acorns are big anyway. I used to rake them up and feed them to pigs. Id also take my pocket knife out and carefully cut off the top third of an acorn,
carefully pick out the nut ,,leaving the hull intact.
Id get the stem of a hollowed out weed and stick through its side making a hole with the tip of my knife. Id then go out on a hunt for Rabbit Tobacco.
What I remember most though was hating those things hitting the roof. Insomnia was only part of it. Tomorrow I-d be raking..no treat. But the pigs were happy to see me.
http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/weather/weather_news/acorns–winter-weather-the-connection
If you like weather, or you like fall, or you like radar, or you like birds, or any combination of the above, this post from the National Weather Service in Dodge City, Kansas, will blow you away. (And yes you should be able to link to it even if you’re not on Facebook)
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=490188311006329&set=a.211133915578438.59004.205550402803456&type=1&theater
Joe: My driveway now has a dusty layer of crushed acorns. The rain didn’t wash them away, it just made the drive way a little stickier so they didn’t roll downhill as easily. Definitely a much thicker crop of them than a year ago.
Kevin,,,
I actually tasted those things..because
they didnt smell bad…and pigs didnt die.
I thought they looked good..and were a helluva
lot bigger than Chinquapins.
I was thoroughly disappointed in what I thought might
be good boiled and mashed. Another great discovery
and a grand prize eluded me.
Weather was delightful to work outside today started in Blacksburg and finished up in S.W. Roanoke City. Finally checked the rain gauge this morning and for the first of the week event there was 2.75 inches in the bucket. The areas that we worked today were extremely damp and soft. New grass would get an excellent start if planted now as well as aeration of the ground. Mr. Quagmire certainly enjoy reading the links about the weather, and by the way wooly worms seen to date have been all black with thick fur coats hmmm.
Bordering on off topic but I’d appreciate the forum’s opinion, since this activity would be something we’d collectively enjoy…. has anybody been on Cass Scenic Railroad in October in West Virginia… and which route is best to take, Whittaker or Bald Knob.. and lastly, how does the weather change from the valley floor to the peak at Bald Knob (third highest peak in the state at 4837 feet?) Need jackets for sure??
Matt, I have not been on the Cass Railroad, but I did once stop by the station in Cass. But I have gone up the Mount Washington Railroad in New Hampshire, which has one incredibly scary section called “Jacob’s Ladder.” YES!! Even thought the elevation change on the Cass S.R. is not as drastic as Mount Washington, the temp change would be big, assuming relatively clear weather. Probably at least 6 degrees F, maybe more.
On one day when I drove up the Mount Washington Auto Road in late July, it was 75 at the base in late morning, but 52* and howling (probably the biggest wind I have ever been outside in, about 60 mph gusts) at the summit.
BTW, Robin Reed as part of his Almanac section at about 6:14 PM, showed the daily highs and lows at the 4 primary airports in the viewing area (Lburg, Bburg, Danville, and RRA). RRA’s low was 58*, but the others were 50 or 48. I bet that there was a west wind in effect at ROA, and also this might be a further piece (although tiny) of evidence of ROA’s relatively big heat island effect compared to the other three cities.
Roanoke’s winds were southerly last night and this morning. The key difference appears to be Roanoke having been overcast for about 7 hours while the other sites were fair to partly cloudy longer.