UPDATE 3:30 PM: Some surprise rain moving into Southwest Virginia; One more chilly morning, then a brief spurt of summerlike warmth
UPDATE 3:30 PM: An area of rain and some thunderstorms is moving from West Virginia into Virginia. While it will encounter drier air as it advances east, it appears to have enough moisture and momentum that many locations will see some showers this afternoon and evening. A little surprise as warm air starts to work back into the unseasonably cool air mass we’ve been experiencing. END UPDATE
The weather pattern isn’t making large-scale changes, but we’ll be losing some of the amplitude of the pushes of Canadian air for several days. Tuesday morning will likely be almost as cool by Monday, when lows were in the mid 30s to low 40s at most locations (and even colder at a few — 27 at Burkes Garden in Tazewell County apparently the coldest). Add 3-5 degrees to those for likely lows on Tuesday morning. After the chilly start to Tuesday, we move into a rather sharp warmup over the next couple of days, with Wednesday afternoon feeling almost summerlike, with highs in the 80s in much of the region east of the New River Valley, perhaps even some mid 80s. A new cold front comes in after that — it will shave degrees off the brief warmup, but won’t have the push of chill we had with this past weekend’s cold front. In fact, this front is likely to stall to our south in the Carolinas, more like a summer front, and that will leave some chance of showers in our forecast through the latter half of the week. By the weekend, a secondary cold front will push through, again not as strong as what we saw this weekend, but keeping the temperatures near the 70s highs/upper 40s-mid 50s lows that are norms for this time of year.
There are some indications that a significant storm system may develop next week, possibly sweeping some Gulf of Mexico moisture northward for a round of rain. Climate Prediction Center maps give Virginia even odds of having above-normal rainfall in both the 6-10-day and 8-14-day periods. There is also some indication that a renewed push of colder Canadian air may occur in the first week of October, but that’s a bit too far out right now for much detail.