UPDATE 3:30 PM: Some surprise rain moving into Southwest Virginia; One more chilly morning, then a brief spurt of summerlike warmth
UPDATE 3:30 PM: An area of rain and some thunderstorms is moving from West Virginia into Virginia. While it will encounter drier air as it advances east, it appears to have enough moisture and momentum that many locations will see some showers this afternoon and evening. A little surprise as warm air starts to work back into the unseasonably cool air mass we’ve been experiencing. END UPDATE
The weather pattern isn’t making large-scale changes, but we’ll be losing some of the amplitude of the pushes of Canadian air for several days. Tuesday morning will likely be almost as cool by Monday, when lows were in the mid 30s to low 40s at most locations (and even colder at a few — 27 at Burkes Garden in Tazewell County apparently the coldest). Add 3-5 degrees to those for likely lows on Tuesday morning. After the chilly start to Tuesday, we move into a rather sharp warmup over the next couple of days, with Wednesday afternoon feeling almost summerlike, with highs in the 80s in much of the region east of the New River Valley, perhaps even some mid 80s. A new cold front comes in after that — it will shave degrees off the brief warmup, but won’t have the push of chill we had with this past weekend’s cold front. In fact, this front is likely to stall to our south in the Carolinas, more like a summer front, and that will leave some chance of showers in our forecast through the latter half of the week. By the weekend, a secondary cold front will push through, again not as strong as what 
we saw this weekend, but keeping the temperatures near the 70s highs/upper 40s-mid 50s lows that are norms for this time of year.
There are some indications that a significant storm system may develop next week, possibly sweeping some Gulf of Mexico moisture northward for a round of rain. Climate Prediction Center maps give Virginia even odds of having above-normal rainfall in both the 6-10-day and 8-14-day periods. There is also some indication that a renewed push of colder Canadian air may occur in the first week of October, but that’s a bit too far out right now for much detail.
September 24, 2012 - 11:34 PM
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37 this morning up on Doppler Ridge – a little warmer than yesterday.
37 and frosty roofs is all for this morning.
Love this weather. Love this blog. Thanks for all you do, Kevin.
Merle Spencer asked in the last thread about how the shutdown of a weather satellite for vibration problems will be compensated for. A European satellite and another U.S. satellite described as a “spare” satellite will help cover the gap. There is some hope the vibration can be addressed and the satellite restored.
BTW … for those who want to see temperatures for Burkes Garden and other COOP stations not found elsewhere … it’s included on the daily hydrologic report issued during the midmorning at the link below. You have to scroll down within the display box in the middle of the screen to see various sites for precipitation, river state, snowfall/snow depth and high/low temperature through 7 a.m.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/products/browser.php?pil=rva
I just want to mention that I saw Kevin’s post on the last thread about the possibility of some upslope snow showers around October 7 and everything thing else became a blur from the big smile on my face LOL I know it would make my hubby happy since deer season opens up next weekend and changing weather/weather fronts tend to make the deer move. He did mention to me that he doesn’t expect to see the deer moving out the woods much this year due to the HUGE crop of acorns.
Historically Kevin, what is the earliest date (Month/Day) that Roanoke would see snow?
Nurse: As far as the first sighting of any flakes, not sure I could come up with a definitive figure very fast. Would guess about Thanksgiving as median date historically for first flurries in Roanoke, and probably sometime in early-mid November for Blacksburg.
Kevin, what is your take on the blob of rain in central Kentucky (just crossing I-75)? Futurecast has it moving a little north and missing ROA, but the current radar trajectory is a little more south and possibly in our area early evening.
So if the October 7 snow verifies, this could historically be significant for the Roanoke Valley? I just find it interesting LOL I’m sure Doug on the other hand is trying to decide on his latest snow avoidance tactic for the winter
I’ve seen him trying to summon Mr. Sam Oakey already.
Forgot to mention that there was some scattered frost here too this morning along with it on the roofs.
Yesterday morning I saw the Weather Channel’s outlook for late fall/early winter. Basically they have written off El Nino and are saying the dominant feature over the next 3 months will be the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which results in colder weather in the western U.S. and warmer weather in the eastern U.S. The wildcard in the forecast will be the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which they are saying is too early to predict.
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/late-fall-early-winter-outlook-20120924
Any chance this blob of showers/storms currently along the KY/VA border makes it to our area? There is no mention of this in the current forecasts.
34* with a little frost again this morning in Woodlawn…
What’s with that big blob of rain on the radar over KY/WV? I see no rain in our forecast so I assume that is going to break up?
Looking at radar now — I think it’s going to rain.
As I continued to look at it that is what I was thinking as well. All of the sudden it was no longer sunny! Of course we could use the rain here. Our creek is still low.
Have been outside all afternoon and saw it was clouding up like it was going to rain – had not looked at the radar till just now when I came in – Yes, Kevin, I do think it is going to rain!
It will probably dry out some coming over the mountains into lower dew points, but it just looks too thick and organized on radar to dissolve entirely, at least as far as the Blue Ridge.
We’ll just start out a day early on this very iffy period when models are having a hard time pinpointing where fronts will stall and the timing of upper air impulses along those frons.
NWS now has 20% chance of showers this afternoon. Really? How about a 100% chance! It is raining in NRV now, with much more showing up on radar to come this way.
Mammatus cloud deck now over ROA…
Is it “going to rain?” How about “is it raining??” Answer for Griggs residence is “YES,” and it is coming down pretty good, too. Definitely NOT lonely raindrops.
I was at 46* this morning before dawn.
Have been sitting outside watching the clouds go by and waiting on the rain. To me the clouds looked unusual – like waves undulating. Lots of thunder – some sounded pretty wicked. Rain started around 4:20 here. Also unusual to see so many butterflies flying south ahead of this line of showers.
Jason in Riner (would you like to be called “Riner LinkMan?”), thanks very, very much for the link to what was on TWC early this morning. Sam Oakey and I and the three other snow haters on this blog would love it if that outlook would verify. This is the first time in what seems like ages that I have seen a major forecasting outfit predict a mild (start to) winter for the Midwest and Northeast and us. That map they showed with the trough in the western (especially northwestern) states and a big ridge in the East reflects an extreme PNA. Trouble is, I cannot remember what the positives and negatives on that “oscillation” mean for weather. I think a positive PNA is what you snow and cold lovers want, a big ridge in the west and a big trough in the east. So what TWC showed would be a negative PNA.
Wavy deck of clouds ahead of the showers looked a lot more like “asperatus” clouds than mammatus to me. Asperatus is vying to become the first newly named cloud type in over 50 years.
http://www.meteorologynews.com/2009/06/06/new-cloud-type-discovered-undulus-asperatus/
I love the fact that several of us had referred to that rain as “that blob of rain” on the radar! Great minds!
Raining here and kind of nice. I’m stuck inside reading Plato so it might as well be raining outside!
The showers are weakening and shrinking crossing the mountains on radar — but still moving through the Roanoke Valley and into the western Piedmont.
GOES has been plagued with problems even before its launch
in 2006. Its been deactivated many times..In Dec 2006 it was damaged
due to having its solar x-ray sensor look directly at a massive solar flare..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GOES_13
GOES 13 cost 500 million to build.
Just a not so funny aside (i lost),
there was about 500 million dollars that changed hands in the Monday night football fiasco last night.
Lesson…dont look directly into the sun even if you-re Aaron Rogers..and just as importantly…dont bet on football.
Carol…
I think maybe one of the reasons the clouds look a little different
.this system is being blown in from the West-Northwest..
Much colder at fairly low altitudes..
Im guessing it has a bit more winter sky look to it at times.
Pretty stratified system.
..as to Tinas Blob…!!
looks like one last yellow blob coming over the bottom laces of Virginias
work boot. an imbedded cluster approaching PSK and BCB with tops to 35000ft…cell movement east at 50kts.
Kevin…
I didnt see your Asperatus comment..
I swear as I scanned the page I thought
someone was talking about Asperagus..(castellanus?)
I did not know there was a new cloud on the “horizon”
Off to the interwebs.
Warm, moist air passing over cooler, drier air near the surface, undulated by the up and down motion of winds aloft (passing over mountainous terrain often agitates wind in this matter) leads to the asperatus clouds we likely observed earlier. As Joe points out, it is more of a cold-season stratified type development than the convection-oriented summer showers and storms we’ve had for months.
Somebody sent me a photo, I’ll post once I get permission to do so. Very convinced what we saw over the Roanoke and New River valleys prior to the showers were asperatus clouds.
Some scientists do suggest asperatus and mammatus are very similar, just different in how winds above the surface sculpt their shapes.
Here is a photo from Miranda Beck in Salem of the asperatus cloud deck passing over the Roanoke Valley:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/09/asperatusmiranda.jpg
“Asparagus” clouds?? And Tina B is reading that child’s play stuff, Play Dough? hmmmmm … weird stuff happening here ……
Yes, joe, two of the best teams of the previous 2-3 years in the NFL got reffed big time on the road in the last two night games, New England and Green Bay. There was one camera angle of the final play of the game last night that was definitive, that the Packer defender had “chested” the ball while the Seahawk receiver only had his hands on the ball. I bet those striped-shirt Bozos would have called it an interception if the game had been in Wisconsin.
Here is a brief bit and some neat photos of “Jacques Cousteau” clouds..
Undulatus Asperatus” …from Natl Geographic..
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/06/photogalleries/new-cloud-pictures/
Here are two more photos of the asperatus deck sent to me on Twitter by Mike Shaw and Kelly Showalter in the New River Valley:
http://twitter.yfrog.com/odmy3sktj
https://twitter.com/Kshowgraphics/status/250682952990736384/photo/1
Itd be quite interesting to listen to the conversations
of flight crews to ATC on climbout of ROA…
This is jolting stuff..especially in combination with the
hills and its effects on the winds.
Brief non-weather aside, noting football talk by Joe and Doug: Packers player who should have been credited with interception was M.D. Jennings, who played collegiately at my alma mater, Arkansas State.
Man…that stuff dried up fast as it moved toward PSK…
ROA went from a 24F point temp dew point spread to a
11F spread in one hour 73/49 to 65/54..that cold air dried most of it up…
That 100 percent was only that if u were under it I suppose.
Just enough to wet the sidewalk at my house south of Roanoke. The asperatus clouds seem to be the biggest excitement it provided.
I fail to see the push to name a cloud formation that I’ve seen for years. It isn’t new. It has been around for eons. I would think time would be better spent on forecasting the weather than naming a cloud formation like asparagus. Same outcome tho. The next day both stink.
WD: You’re right, the clouds aren’t new. It’s just that many scientists don’t think they’re properly covered by existing cloud classifications.
There are new classifications of insects and bacteria every year. Allow the weather scientists to have their fun of a new cloud classification for the first time in 61 years.
WD…
not referee)Jennings….one of the biggest robberies ever. The NFL should be ashamed.
Sometimes theres not a lot to do ..especially in the fall
between hourly observations..
,,what I want to see is what altitudes go along with the
new classification..
and yes…you can be quite certain that bored dispatchers
will certainly be calling them asparagus clouds..
and beet and carrot clouds…just to get some sucker crew scheduler
to come to the window.
We dont change that much.
Kevin..ref
He clearly had control. So much for outsourcing.
I’m not getting very far in PlayDough Doug, because clouds are distracting me.
Those asperetus clouds are pretty awesome. A friend of mine posted a photo of the clouds over near Towers in Roanoke and I noticed they looked different.
Sorry for the info barrage..
Im off this week.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_atlas
Some pretty good overall info here.
I had 0.25 rain. I was surprised how long it took the NWS to forecast a chance of rain, when the storms were closing in from Kentucky for a long time. It was raining here about the same time the forecast changed.
The Chapel had a pretty hard thunderstorm this afternoon but I have not looked at the gauge. I would estimate no more than .20 if that. Looked like we would get more but it played out. Been cool all day and looking for warmup tomorrow.
Little trivia here Kevin, for the readers. The International Cloud Atlas is responsible for naming new clouds. It was last updated in 1975. The last cloud formation was named in 1951. OH, how will I ever make thru tomorrow without having a new cloud named? Jest fine.
I got 0.10 inches of rain. My curbside gutter just got a monsoon, however. Some company hired by Western Virginia Water Authority was installing new, allegedly improved water meters in our subdivision. Only one little problem; they broke the pipe at our neighbor’s water meter, and we went without water for about an hour. Luckily I had showered JUST before they shut off our water, without alerting us first, of course. We still only have about 25% of water pressure.
So in a nutshell, what was the deal with today’s surprise? Weak frontal boundary? Upper level low? Remnant of a extratropical Pacific storm? It was sunny and cloudfree at lunch and then raining (fairly steadily here in Franklin County) at 5.
Joe, looked at your Jacques Cousteau clouds and the ones I saw today were like the ones pictured from Scotland and the UK. I had thought about taking a picture of them because they were so unusual but was too lazy to go and get the camera – wish I had though.
Automated rain gauge did not collect and register any rain during the event. Guess I will need to check it out to see how come.
Certain clouds you just dont fly into…
The more you know the better assessments
you can make.
Insofar as aviation it can be the difference
in safe or unsafe flight (read life or death).
Im on the side of knowing more..and continuing
to ask questions.
Sometimes ice is just ice..
But when you can develop a system to gather weather data
from 10k years ago from analyzing Greenland ice cores that
makes me happy the questioners asked the questions..and kept pushing.
Today’s showers were a remnant of a storm cluster triggered by an upper air impulse moving along the slowing front in the Ohio Valley.
Hey, part of me rejoices a bit that the NWS and the other weather predicting companies (TWC, Accuweather) sometimes are caught with their predicting pants down, so to speak. Except when it either (A) wipes out a golf game, or worse (B) pours on us letter carriers while doing a walking route and we didn’t bring our rain gear because we (foolishly) believed the forecast. Sorry for the typo above, wd. Should be ” ….wipes out a goof game, ….”
DC…
I watched the radar loop as it exited Western Va..
It evaporated extremely rapidly..
The air at the mid levels east of the Va Highlands
must have been uber dry.
There is probably nothing wrong with your gauge..
just winter dry air visiting at the mid and low levels quite early.