UPDATE 12:30 AM, 9/12: Radiational cooling may make for another rather chilly start
Wednesday’s Weather Journal: A look at radiational cooling … and summer contest winners announced.
UPDATE 12:30 AM, 9/12: Another night of clear skies, calm wind and dry air will allow lows to again drop into the 40s to low 50s on Wednesday morning– perhaps a couple degrees warmer than Tuesday’s lows (which were 43 at Blacksburg and 48 at Roanoke). The rest of the week will present similar warm days (mid 70s-low 80s) and cool nights (50s-low 60s) as the same dry weather pattern dominated by high pressure continues. END UPDATE
One thing I vividly remember from 11 years ago on that infamous Tuesday morning, Sept. 11, 2001: The perfect clear blue sky belying such a tragic day. This being another Tuesday, Sept. 11, likely to dawn very clear will undoubtedly surface some of those memories for me and many others.
Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2001 had a high of 83 and low of 55 in Roanoke, while Blacksburg was 78/48. This Sept. 11 is likely to be cooler than that one by 4-7 degrees or so. A high pressure system is settling right on top of us for Tuesday morning, which means skies will likely be clear, winds calm and dew points very low. That combination will maximize radiational cooling (heat escaping to space, cooler air sinking to the surface without being mixed) and allow for a temperature drop that may be a little larger than even the last two mornings, which were 47/49 at Blacksburg and 53/54 at Roanoke. Widespread 40s are likely the result, and perhaps even a few upper 30s in some of the rural valley and exposed ridgetop locations that often record the coldest temperatures. Blacksburg has not been as cold as the National Weather Service-projected low of 44 since June 3,while Roanoke has not been as cold as the projected 47 since May 12. Whether or not those projected lows verify exactly, Tuesday will very likely be a third straight morning of low temperatures 4 or more degrees below normal at both sites and throughout the region.
Tuesday’s highs are again expected to stay in the 70s almost everywhere, but a slow warmup will commence afterward, with highs returning to the upper 70s-mid 80s over most of the region and lows warming back up closer to 60 toward the latter part of the week. It will be hard for the atmosphere to rebuild much moisture before a weekend cold front, though some showers or storms may be possible then. Repeated cold frontal passages with slight warmups in between will remain the dominant weather pattern for our region likely for the next couple of weeks, at least.
September 10, 2012 - 7:23 PM
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Just imagine if 9/11/2001 had been a foggy/ low ceiling type day. Probably something the terrorists didn’t account for, but could have changed history!
I’m expecting about 39 in Coldville.
I’ve thought about that, Matt.
40 dew point at Roanoke airport station. That should help the temperature drop later, if there is no wind (light north wind at the airport currently)
It is already 54 up here on the ridge. Will check back in tomorrow morning with the low. I expecting upper 30′s. Nice clear calm night out there tonight – good for star gazing.
Yes, I remember the clear blue skies of that 9/11 and the lack of any air traffic – I was living in NoVA at the time and teaching that day.
I’m gonna try again for below 40. Missed it by 2 degrees last night but think 38 or so is possible tonight. Not a bit of air stirring…
Nobody posted about today’s 6-10 and 8-14? Well, I will. The 6-10 day for Sept. 16-20 shows us being in the 33% chance of being warm, with 40% area for central Virg. Neutral for precip.
The 8-14 day again shows a big area of cool air centered over ILL and Missouri, with Blacksburg west in the 33% chance of being cooler than normal. For rain all of Virginia except Bristol westward (which is neutral) is in a 33% chance of being wetter than normal. No dry outlooks anymore on the multi-day, so maybe after this week some rains will return.
I looked at those Doug, and thought about posting, but stuck to the short term tonight. Those maps reflect a warmup in the interim between cooler air masses, and some possibility of a significant storm system developing when the next trough digs in.
Kevin, I don’t think you have said much lately about the outlook for the tropics, after suggesting at least a couple of months ago that the 2nd half (or at least from late Sept. onward) of the trop-storm season might be pretty tame. I am counting on that. But Jeff Haniewicz (spelling?) of WSLS-10 and Fox 27 just mentioned it tonight. Because of the oncoming El Nino. He also sees a likelihood of a somewhat snowier than normal winter for all of you snow fans. He mentioned that El Nino winters here tend to be wet and cold. I would agree with the wet, but question the cold. 1998 was an epic El Nino, but a mild winter for Roanoke. Maybe 2003 was cool, but 2007 was not. Then there was my nightmare, 2009-10, which was both very cold and snowy. Some day between now and Veteran’s Day I may go back and track what the previous 6 El Ninos meant for Roanoke’s winter temps (I will look at not only DEC-FEB, but also March). If I can find the data before 2000. Probably a mixed bag.
Midnight in the Noke..
Just looked 47f dewpoint and calm wind..
You guys could see upper to mid 40-s
by 6am or so.
Dealing with desert monsoon this evening in Phoenix and Tucson..
wasnt all that spectacular..but the SWUS was where there was any precip
to speak of in the lower 48.
One more before signoff..
Yall know my fascination with Mount Washington NH…
its cool in the Noke.. but right now on top of the NH mountain..
WOXOF..(indefinite ceiling ,sky obscured ,visibility zero with Fog)
winds out of the NW 33 gusts to 41 kts -2c (28F) light ice fog..
In other words ..they hear the howls of the animals but see
absolutely nothing outside.
I remember living in Bluefield at the time. I was awaken by the radio saying a plane had flown into a tower. I thought they were talking about a small plane hitting a tower on East River mountain. I fully awoke half hour or so later to the terrible truth! What amazes me now is our president catering to the same Islamic radicals that destroyed the towers!
Doug: I would generally say weak-moderate El Nino winters tilt a little toward the cool side, but strong El Ninos often overwhelm the pattern and make it mild. 2009-10 was a borderline moderate-strong El Nino combined with extreme NAO-/AO- patterns. 2007 was not only mild but dry winter because a persistent Bermuda high deflected much of the stormy pattern into the central U.S. rather than across the South as is typical.
My thermometer has dipped as low as 47 this morning. I see Roanoke Regional is even in the 40s. Probably the coldest morning region-wide since at latest May 12.
Not as cold as I expected. 43 here and 41 at nearby Kings Weather Station.
I was a flight attendant departing BOS on September 11th. I remember that beautiful blue sky. As we departed the gate and turned the corner, I saw the AA and UA airplanes, and remember thinking they must be going to the West Coast. When we were at cruise altitude, I remember the Captain saying, “Folks, you’ve got to look outside the window. There’s the World Trade Center. I don’t think it’s ever looked prettier.” Normally I never looked–there were other things to do, but I did that morning, and he was right, they were shimmering. This was about 30 minutes before the planes hit and the world changed. He called us a little later to tell us something was wrong, that he was receiving odd messages on the ACARS(the communication system in the cockpit) about hijacked planes. It wasn’t until we reached TPA that we learned about the events in LGA and DCA. Shanksville wouldn’t happen for another 30 minutes. Everything had changed, but not that beautiful blue sky, all along the East Coast.
42 the morning low up here on the ridge. Joe, heard the howl of animals last night but it wasn’t the wind. I think the coyotes were having a convention.
Saw my first wooly worm yesterday – it was all brown!
9-11-2001 A Day That Lives In Infamy
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http://roanokeslant.blogspot.com/2012/09/9-11-2001-america-at-war.html
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43 this morning in New River, with some pretty thick fog on the river, but clear just up and out of the river valley. Felt great.
Not sure how cold it was early AM where I was. When I left for work, it was 53.
Sad day in American history. I had friends and family working in the Pentagon that day and friends that had family in the Towers. God bless everyone that was affected that day!
Got down to 40.2 at the house (somewhere between Hillsville/Fancy Gap/Woodlawn) this morning according to my mother. SO CLOSE TO THE 30′s.
We hit 49.1 in Goodview, 44.6 in Jordantown.
Vickie and et al:
Never told this here before but on the morning of 9/11, I flew a trip in & out of LaGuardia (LGA for us aviation types) before the attacks began & remember flying out westbound over the city looking down over Manhattan & commenting how pretty of a day it was like today. I made a cabin announcement that it was going to be a smooth and clear flight all the way to the Steel City. By the time I landed in Pittsburgh, the attacks had just occurred. I was in the crew room watching it all unfold on TV. Needless to say, I was stuck in PIT for 3 days but remember this day well. I’ll never forget this day. God Bless America
Vickie in Blacksburg..
I was one of the guys sending those
ACARS messages.
My hands were shaking as I sent those messages..
still trying to figure out what was happening.
I felt like a prisoner at work.
Its a very sad day for us here in DFW..
Always will be.
To answer my own question from yesterday…………tropcial depression #14 is going to quickly curve north and be nothing but a fish storm, according tot he NHC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/144027.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
Kevin, if you wrote something in the paper about the end/result of the summer temperature contest, I missed it.
I like the new 6-10 day outlook from the CPC. Normal temps and more rain. Pretty much the same map for the 8-14.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
Rick: You’re very timely. The winner of the heat prediction contest will be announced tomorrow in my print Weather Journal column. (Wednesday) Also will link it to this blog, too.
If there’s any truth to the idea that heavy acorn production is a harbinger of a hard winter, this one should be a doozy, based on the trees in my front yard. Acorns production is at least triple what it was last year, so much so I had to brush it off and collect them off the driveway today just to keep there from being a solid layer of crunched-up acorns to drive through. It’s like a hail storm out there sometimes, there are so many still falling. These are “chestnut oaks” (not the endangered American chestnut), they seem to thrive in upland rocky soils even when it’s been relatively dry.
I was an interim news editor for 2 months at the newspaper — September and October 2001. So I was deeply involved in the news planning during the time of the 9/11 crisis, including what may well be the last “special” edition of the paper ever produced. From the window at my desk, I remember watching the last plane or 2 come down over downtown Roanoke to land at Roanoke Regional when the ground stop was declared (these were not planes that were scheduled to be landing there). That was such a gorgeous fall of weather, not just that week, but a spectacular foliage season, especially west of Roanoke, even though it was dry. I was in DC one sparkling Sunday in October and there were so few people there that we parked within walking distance of the Capitol. Turned out that was the day the U.S. launched the invasion of Afghanistan. Strange to think all that high-level war planning was going on around me on such a clear, cool, calm day in the nation’s capital.
I haven’t commented in quite a while…but I have been around. The acorn production here at my house in Knoxville has been extreme as well. We also have Chestnut Oaks in the yard, and with the windows open (thanks to the beautiful weather), we are constantly hearing thumps and thuds outside. I like to think the high production is a harbinger of a hard (okay, particularly snowy) winter, but my husband says it means that deer hunting should be good this year. Hopefully we are both right
.
Kevin, more like the wooly boogers and wasp nests tales foretelling the upcoming winter weather. The oaks we have here are generally divided into two groups: white and red oaks. The white oaks can and do produce every year. The reds[black included] only produce every other year. Easy to see if it happens to be the year both produce, you got nuts under your feet. Not that simple due to weather, but a general idea. A lot can affect nut production, same as all fruit trees.
Right with ya Zack…41 AGAIN in Woodlawn!! so close to the 30s it hurts…
Kevin, when is the possibility for this big storm you talk about? I would love to seed my yard soon and the timing on that storm would be beneficial for the seed, but like to have it down before the storm.
Matt, in reply to your 8:07 PM (comment # 1 on this thread) last night. I am fairly sure that the terrorists did not solidify the exact date of their attack until they had a forecast (for the NE corridor) that was for at least reasonably good weather. All they needed were a couple of days to get their people in place. Or perhaps the people were already (in place) and the only thing they needed was a really good forecast. And I think that for some reason they wanted a mid-week day. I am not 100% sure about all this, but I think I saw it on a documentary.
Hey, joe, Vickie, “Quags,” and anyone else in the airline industry, either now or formerly ….. in 1976-77 I lived in the NYC metro area (first 4 months of ’76 even lived in Manhattan). I was told by a couple of stewardesses that Manhattan was restricted air space. True? If so, was that true in Sept. of 2011? I have a personal anecdote if that answer is yes.
Hey, wd, what was your low temp this morning? It sounds like I was one of the few that did not drop below 50 (it was 50.5* when I left home at 6:40 AM). Shanon, you may have also stayed above 49. Nurse Snow, would you like me to phone you at 6:35 tomorrow morning to remind you to check your thermometer? …….. :>) :>) :>)
Coldest official low I could find for this morning anywhere in our area (VA, WV, NC, TN) was 41 at Elkins, WV. Anyone out there know if there were any reports, official or otherwise, of anything in the 30′s?
WD: Yeah, I personally favor the weather that’s already happened having more impact on acorn production rather than what is to come.
Jared: I don’t know that I said there would be a big storm, but the models have hinted at a fairly strong low somewhere in the central or eastern U.S. 7-10 days out. A quick look today showed it moving into the Great Lakes.
Blacksburg Mike: Burkes Garden would be my best guess as to the spot most likely to have gone below 40. I’ll see if I can come up with a temperature for that spot.
About the same Mr. Griggs. I saw 48* at Poagues farm on the way out. But that don’t mean much for the temps in radiational cooling up here since I’m in a saddle and the cooler air settles below me and shoves the warmer air up to my house. That’s why I’m located in an area known as above the frost line.
Doug
Yes to your answer, NYC airspace was & is still restricted…here’s the cliff notes version…
The airspace around the metro New York City area back in the 70’s was restricted to air traffic due to the congestion & traffic flows in & out of 3 major airports. In the 70’s the NYC airspace was called a Terminal Control Area or TCA. Several major cities had TCAs including DC, Atlanta, etc. Several years ago, the FAA changed it to what they call Class B airspace. You will find this at the FAA website & at AOPA. But yes, if you are a private (General Aviation) aircraft, you essentially can’t fly below 2000’ AGL over the city but you can sight see up & down the Hudson with permission no lower than 1500’. This restriction does not apply to helicopters but they still have a different restriction that they have to comply with, including NYPD, NYFD, US Gov’t, Military & Med-flight Choppers. It’s a lot of technical stuff that will take a book or 2 to explain.
Here are some info links:
http://www.avweb.com/news/avtraining/183284-1.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airspace_class_(United_States)
http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/flashcards/airspace.pdf
On 9/11, the Class B restrictions were in place & the only violators that day were the hi-jacked aircraft.
Update on my fall-winter weather forecast presentation…I’m constructing a website that will have everything I need. Details coming soon.
Good luck KM on finding the temps for Burkes Garden. To my knowledge, there’s no station located there. Not even a PWS. All info comes from surrounding towns/stations. At 3100′+, it’s a likely candidate for cold temps. In fact, the site I had showed temps getting into the 30′s every month of the year. 5 miles wide and 10 miles long, it’s a work of nature and a bit of help from outer space. The advent of the areoplane showed what it was early last century, then geologist confirmed it. It is truly a piece of work in Va.
Kevin, thought we were moving into an El Minor pattern. Isn’t that suppose to bring a lot of rain systems from the south up through the Mid Atlantic? Just checked the 10 day and no mention of rain at all!
Wow. What a beautiful late fall day, and so sadly similar to that fateful day 11 years ago. I hope this weather continues. Jared French, referencing your earlier comment,”What amazes me now is our president catering to the same Islamic radicals that destroyed the towers!” I’m confused. This president killed Osama Bin Laden. How is that “catering to the Islamic radicals.?”
Sorry, this spell check kicked in and put El Minor instead of El Nino. I’m not crazy! LOL
WD: Burkes Garden was an official climate station 16 years before Roanoke, starting in 1896.
http://www.sercc.com/cgi-bin/sercc/cliMAIN.pl?va1209
There are still non-electronic, co-op stations out there that are checked twice a day by an observer. Burkes may be one of those.
Doug, 6:35 is WAY too early at my house LOL I’m not even beginning to think of breathing yet from my deep slumber
Maybe I can convince the hubby to check the temps if he gets up that early tomorrow LOL
Jared: I somehow missed your comment earlier, but there is a rule here that I will enforce again: NO POLITICAL COMMENTARY OF ANY SORT, CONSERVATIVE OR LIBERAL OR ANY OTHER VIEWPOINT. Absolutely banned on this blog at all times, and it was my mistake letting your comment through (the one Rich referred to). I apologize to all. No further political commentary will be accepted. (Since it’s been up so long now, I won’t try to remove it — and I will allow Rich’s comment too as the rebuttal and leave it at that).
Regarding El Nino: (1) The pattern you describe doesn’t typically kick in during September; (2) El Nino doesn’t guarantee any particular weather pattern, there is just a historical lean toward some kinds of patterns, such as storms riding along the Gulf and up the East Coast.
joe, thanks very much. On the morning of 9-11-11, I was at a local barber shop and he had the news on his tiny black-and-white tv. Some newswoman showed a replay of the first plane flying into the WTC, on that crystal blue day, and either theorized herself or said something like, “Some people have wondered if this plane could have somehow gotten off course and flown by accident into the building.” Having heard 25 years earlier about the NY airspace rules and seeing the unlimited visibility conditions, I and one other guy immediately chirped up that “This is no accident!! It was intentional. Manhattan is restricted airspace, and besides, look at the weather conditions ….” Then came even more tragic news of the other three flights skyjacked, with two of them ending up in important buildings.
This is strange …. for the last couple of weeks, since I am on the golfer’s disabled list, I have been thinking of taking a day trip to Burkes Garden. Tonight’s comments seal it …. I plan to go there sometime later this month. Maybe even Thursday.
Thanks a million, wd, for your comments about it. Just out of curiosity, are there any food stores or little diners or restaurants of any type there? Or should visitors go in there with a full stomach and plenty of gasoline in the car?
Omigosh, I just took a look at how to “get there from here,” and the roads in look like a nightmare, at least the one that is closer to I-81, from Sharon Springs on Route 42 to Burkes Garden in Jefferson County via Route 623. Looks like you have to travel 20 miles total to go 4 miles “as the crow flies” at one point. It looks like it might be wiser to take I-77 north out of Wytheville into northern Bland County, then follow SR 61 west for about 20 miles and go into that area from the north ….. Guidance, anyone?
Getting back to weather, Leslie, Michael, and the probably named Nadine have all either already taken tracks north, or in the case of TD 14/Nadine, is expected to do so. I realize that the major reason for that is probably the ginormous high over the eastern 1/2 or 2/3rds of the nation, but do you think Kevin that it might also be a sign that the incipient El Nino is starting to affect the paths of trop storms now?
Hey, Quags, how close did the either the flight that flew into the Pentagon or the one that ended up in Shanksville get to Pittsburgh? I thought that the “Shanksville” plane went fairly far west into Pennsylvania, then turned SE to try to get to Washington, DC.
Always love the aerial photo of Burkes Garden. Looks like a volcano.
http://www.virginia.org/Listings/OutdoorsAndSports/BurkesGarden/
I drove there several years ago on the one highway, then went out the other way on a gravel road up and over the mountain.
History would be a lot different if the Vanderbilts had gotten to build the Biltmore there instead of Asheville.
Yes Kevin..
I guess they call that Karst topography..
or Graben..Graben being a collapsed cave structure..
I think a lot of people dont know that some 200 million years
before Dan Boone worked his way toward the Cumberland Plateau
there was a pretty good sized meteor that cleared a nice gouge
out for him. The Cumberland Gap was formed that way according to
most recent studies.
Had that crater not been there the country may have been settled in a far different fashion.
And Dan Boone might have ended up raising buffalo in Canada.
Doug ..
The Shanksville flight went well into Ohio before
turning back into Pennsylvania..
It was abeam Cleveland before it turned around.
and Doug..
the reason the news lady may have said that
was that it had happened once before in NY
when a B-25 military plane hit the Empire state building.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B-25_Empire_State_Building_crash
The B-25 wasnt that big of a bomber…certainly smaller than the
Boeing acft that hit the Trade Center..especially loaded with transcon fuel.
There was an awful lot of erroneous speculation early on on the morning of the 9/11.
The Pentagon crash for some time was being reported as a USAIR commuter.
I do know that our CEO was on the phone with Mineta in DC..and asked
him as he looked toward the Pentagon if it was an AA airplane..
..He said “Arent there pieces that identify it?” Mineta said
“Theres no pieces at all visable…just a flaming hole in the ground” to paraphrase.
I actually thought that both airplanes that hit the Trade Center were AA-s
because I knew before they crashed that we-d had 2 hijacked.
Turns out United thought the same thing ..but that they thought both
at the WTC were theirs.
Doug, been to Burkes Garden many times. Do take I-77 to 61, then 623 into the garden. There is a gas station at the 61/623 intersection, and in Burkes Garden itself at the country store. Do plan to eat at the store. Get ‘cha a burger, hotdog or many other “meals” and sides. Don’t be in a hurry to leave……….about half the trips I took there, I was delayed in leaving because cattle hauling trucks got hung up on the many sharp s-turns on 623. The store manager will know of trucks hung up, and advise you if you are in there. They’ll get the trucks moved in a hour or less. There are other ways in and out, but they are all gravel and much less desirable than 623. I’ve done the gravel routes.
Doug-there is a general store in Burkes Garden on the right as you come into the center of the Garden. No other stores. Near the general store is a ruritan club picnic shelter with a board that lists some weather history of the Garden. Good place to take a picnic and enjoy the views of the Garden. Would also recommend driving up the gravel road from inside the Garden towards the top of the south rim, park at the Appalachian Trail crossing, hike south on the AT about 1/2 mile to a rocky outcrop with a great view of the Garden. I would rank Burkes Garden, Grayson Highlands/Mt.Rogers/Whitetop, and Allegheny Mountain on the VA/WV border in western Highland County, as the three most scenic AND climatologically unique areas in all of Virginia, not to mention the top three places to find snow in the winter! Enjoy the Garden.
Doug – going to Burkes Garden – I would go the I 77 way you mentioned. Enjoy the drive over and the scenery.
I have inquired with someone at the weather service about Burkes Garden’s temperature Tuesday, and whether any site went below 40 in the region.
Joe and others: One of the amazing things about 9/11 to me was that Ben Sliney, the director of air traffic control operations for the FAA who gave the order to ground the planes, was on his FIRST DAY ON THE JOB!
http://jalopnik.com/5838772/man-who-grounded-4000-planes-on-911-was-on-first-day-of-his-job
In case you missed the link on the new update up top, here is my Wednesday column on radiational cooling .. and announcing the summer contest winners.
http://www.roanoke.com/weather/wb/313970
I will post new this evening. Time was limited last night, weather was the same, and didn’t want to break up good discussions on 9/11 and Burkes Garden just yet.
United 93 came right over PIT that morning just after the turn was made to go SE toward DC. PIT Airport was evacuated for that reason. Spoke with a good friend who works FAA Air Traffic Control ATC in PIT a month later & he told me that they were tracking UAL93 & could visually see the aircraft as it passed overhead & descended rapidly.
I wonder if the wind kept the temperatures from being even lower than they ended up being, due to mixing. I was going to broadcast spray 2-4D (weed killer) on my yard around 5pm and noticed it was breezy, so I didn’t (so as not to wipe out the wife’s flowers and azaleas). Maybe it became calm later, but the wind was stirring in Franklin County just before dark.
Burkes Garden’s low Tuesday morning was 36, says Robert Stonefield, the climatologist at the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.
Just as you can usually count on Quinwood WVa for the biggest snow total n Blacksburg’s forecast area during an upslope snow event, you can usually count on Burkes Garden for the coldest low temperature during a radiational cooling night.
I didn’t pick apart the site you put up for Burkes Garden but failed to find readings for a given day like Rke, wunderground or other outlets shows. Where did I miss that? I didn’t realize BG had an offical site and was relying on weather given from nearby areas. My fault. I’ll stick to giving leaf and tree forecasts from now on.
I have enjoyed all the comments about Burke’s Garden. I have wanted to go there as well, or at least hike the AT on it’s southern rim. It appears on the Blacksburg/New River Valley National Geographic trails topo map #787.
The blog comments me realize that I had really buried 9/11 memories down deep. I, of course, remember where I was and part of that day. But much of the aftermath memory is muddled – perhaps selectively. I have avoided the recounts and horrible videos of it. The events of April 16 and the aftermath, and how it still feels 5 years later, made me understand a bit better how it might feel for those in New York, DC, PA in the years after – how there will always be a damaged corner in those closely impacted by those terrible events.
My VT students and I had an informal 9/11 potluck gathering yesterday under our beautiful blue Hokie sky – just to be together. They are a generation whose lives have been defined by that event – they probably don’t realize how much. They really don’t remember much of how things were before 9/11 but they know it was significant, probably the way I perceived the assassination of JFK as a second grader…you saw from your parents that the world could be a very scary and sad place, and that the event had changed things forever after.
WD: The site I put up was a climatic site, not daily weather. It does have a segment on there with daily record highs and lows going back to the 1800s (kinda hard to navigate site). I think it’s a non-electronic site, old-fashioned thermometer in a ventilated box that’s checked twice a day.
My 9:35 a.m. comment has Tuesday’s low at Burkes Garden from the NWS — 36.
It didn’t get nearly as cold last night at my house, 53, with a very thick layer of river fog. I didn’t break out of the fog until I was halfway to Christiansburg.
I’m glad the weather for the weekend looks similarly fantastic as what we’ve had the past few days. Going camping at Staunton River State Park in Halifax County, and hope to have an enjoyable time down there.
I don’t think I’ve seen Texas predicted for this big a splash since sometime in the spring. We won’t see a drop until next week.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
Kevin…
AA started grounding their planes before ATC gave the order..
In fact ATC let one of my flights take off to Charlotte..
and I brought him back to DFW..
There was much chaos everywhere..
And theres some self shining after the fact that im not sure is
to the credit to the FAA.
Just my opinion..
Thanks Kevin. There might be a site that gives the h/l temps for BG proper, but it’s a well kept secret. I had the site you put up marked at one time, but it got lost in the shuffle. Really no lost since it was most aggrevatin to try to find anything in it without an hours time. It had a USPS until a few years ago when the lady that run it died. Can’t you just hear Mr. Griggs if he had to deliever mail there 100 years ago. Would make a good read,
Joe: I’m sure you know a lot more about the air traffic details of that day than me. My main reason for posting that was just to note what an awful first day of a new job that would be.
Henry M. is talking up a big rain storm sometime mid next week for our area! Kevin, are models showing this? If so are you going to talk about this in your next posting? He says NAO is going way negative and thats whhy this storm is going to occur.Going to be hard seeding my yard and having a big golf tournament at the club this weekend!
You might look at it that he started earning his pay the first day.
Jared: I have been mentioning a possible central/eastern U.S. storm system in several comments. You even asked me about it earlier. Even if it does happen, track will mean a lot whether it’s a big rainstorm for us or for someone else. Once the jet starts digging far enough south to scoop up some Gulf moisture and/or interplay with anything ejecting out of the Pacific, these kind of storm systems become a possibility.
Following up on that Jared: Yes, in my next blog post, I do plan to take a farther look out than the short term. While we may yet have a few warm, even hot, sticky days, I am still very comfortable with the idea that autumn has begun in our weather pattern, and summer will not make be a significant return.
Have been seeing several wooly worms today – they all seem to be light brown and no black on them at all!
Wow, wow!! Comments 39, 46, 54, 61 66 by Kevin; 42 and 73 by the brandman (tell me to stop using that name, wd, if you don’t like it); 50 & 51 by me; 55 by joe; 58 by Rick; 59 by Blacksburg Mike; 60 by the Doppler Gal; and 67 by HokieTrax all had to do with Burke’s Garden (“BG”)!! And a special thanks to you folks who gave me guidance, or history. I DO plan to get up early tomorrow and hit I-81 south, but this time I will go past my favorite golf course (I may cry as I do it! LOL) and keep on truckin’ to BG. I may even purchase a small thermometer and take it with me. I am so low-tech compared to most/many of you, that I don’t have a laptop. Maybe somebody down there will let me use their computer and I can make a comment here. If I was even 7 years younger, I would definitely keep traveling through the village and go up to the south rim, but I must admit that is doubtful. For one thing, I have seen/heard of too many horror stories on Animal Planet and other networks of folks who go hiking by themselves and get stranded. And I bet cell phone service doesn’t work at the south rim, either. More in a separate comment.
If I do go hiking on the App. Trail to try to get to that lookout point, I may bring an old golf club as protection. And I hope that I would be awake enough to remember to make noise as I hike …. if I were to surprise a mother bear with her cubs, there might be one less crazy letter carrier around and a lot fewer comments here (which quite a bit of the time might be a good thing, given that it is my comments that would be no longer appearing). And wd and others, I DO realize that an old golf club, even swung at top velocity, ain’t gonna stop an angry mother bear.
I was going to say something else, but I have forgotten ……
Well, anybody that wasn’t happy with todays weather jest ain’t gonna be pleased with anything. Don’t thinkThe any heat wave will show up, but I’ve been in a tree stand to many times in Oct. and have nats carry me off to call it over yet. Not extreme, but down right warm for huntin season.The dogwoods are showin color and berries are turnin red a little early this year, but a likely result of the season in general.
Oh, wd, about me delivering mail in Burke’s Garden!! Ten years ago I was a pretty good walking letter carrier. But even now, and especially in 1912 (100 years ago), the homes are so scattered that whoever delivers the mail there would need a vehicle (or horse in 1912) to get to the homes.
The following is only a teeny bit related to weather.
About 8 years ago Nancy and I took a big trip to Alaska. Flew to Anchorage, then we got around AK and the Yukon by bus, trains and once by boat (from Eagle AK to Dawson, Yukon). While we were on that long boat ride, guide told us of a letter carrier who was truly heroic. Back in late 1800s, he set out from Dawson with a team of sled dogs in EARLY WINTER with the mail and carried mail along the sides of the Yukon River down to Eagle. And back again. Of course he and his team were attacked by wolves, but one shot from his gun killing the “Alpha” wolf persuaded the other wolves to vamoose. Took him 3-and-a-half months. Well, back in the mid-2000s, the USPS was using a management computer program/tool that had an acronym that rhymed with LOIS. “LOIS” had some design flaws. Such as that system “claimed” that it required no extra time for us to deliver packages. When the number of packages was sky-high (and especially on a mounted route, causing the letter carrier to safely park the truck and carry the package to the house), the extra time could easily run well over 30 minutes and even an hour for the Monday before Christmas (one of, if not THE, heaviest days for parcels each year).
Anyway, I sent a postcard back to my branch station quickly telling about the heroic letter carrier of old. Then joked that “LOIS” claimed he should have required only 2 months to deliver that route, so he was fired. I was greeted with praise for that postcard …. the other guys and our two gals loved it!! Even our two bosses got a kick out of it.
Kevin,
On an earlier post I commented that I encountered severe storm at cold front moving through area south of Winchester, Va last Saturday afternoon. I have since read that DC area had serious storm a couple of hours later.
Question: Where could I acquire/view an archived radar image of that weather I experienced?
Kev..
sorry…I just saw a lot of shine put on it
by a lot of parties…who shall mostly remain nameless..
It was a bad day..and the first REALLY bad day for
a lot of us..
Like the whole country.
Mike:
Some possibilities, forwarded me by a NWS employee when I asked similar question about radar archives earlier this summer:
Otherwise, you can request and display radar data through NCDC at: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/radar/radardata.html or http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/pls/plhas/has.dsselect
Beyond that, most oradar archive sites drop data after 5 days and is low-resolution:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/nids.html
Finally, you can download high resolution radar data from Iowa State, but map backgrounds may not be available:
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/archive/data/2012/06/29/GIS/ridge/ specifically: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/archive/data/2012/06/29/GIS/ridge/FCX/N0Q/
Doug: I’ve hiked probably thousands of miles total in 11 states over the past 18 years or so, mostly 1996-2005. I’ve seen a grand total of 2 bears, both running the other way. Your statistical odds are very low to see a bear on a short dayhike, and much lower to be attacked by one — but never zero, of course.
Counting 2 bears I’ve seen while driving, I’ve seen a total of 4. I’ve seen an estimated 25 tornadoes. My tornado-to-bear ratio is about 6-to-1. Granted, I intentionally put myself in position to see tornadoes in May/June each year, but I would think all those years of hiking through some pretty thick black bear areas (Virginia mountains, Great Smokies, Ozarks/Ouachitas in Arkansas, Colorado Rockies) I would have seen more than 2 while hiking and 4 total.
Joe: I would agree there was no shine on 9/11/01. A grim, grim day for all.
Kevin, that don’t mean they weren’t there, especially in the last 10 years or so. Jest meant they saw you, first.
Kevin, I’m sure a LOT of bears saw you.
Seems like KM mentioned the possibility around the first of the week if the stars aligned.The HPC ain’t onboard for this, but HM and wunderground calls for the chance of an inch or better, mainly Monday.
True enough about the bears maybe seeing me without me seeing them. Still, the most dangerous thing I do regarding those hikes isn’t bears — it’s driving to the trailhead.
Right now, I would not be on board for an inch of rain here early next week. Some potential for a larger storm down the line though. Long-range models are mighty impressive with Canadian air onslaught. May be shoveling some in the northern Great Lakes in 10-14 days if some of these models verify.
Kevin, the bears are here in Va big time. For every one that saw you with it’s eyes, there were probably 100 that “saw” you with it’s nose. I see 5-10 per year mainly while bird hunting.
You know what to do if one catches you? Just rub it’s belly till it goes to sleep!
Not saying there aren’t a lot of bears in Virginia. But you’re more likely to be attacked by a stray dog or a rabid skunk or, especially, another person than by a bear. Far, far more likely to be in a traffic accident on the way to a hike (or a hunt) than be attacked by a bear. Ants and bees and mosquitoes kill more people every year than do bears.
I think hunting would allow more chance to see a bear than hiking, as in hunting the idea is to stay put and wait for the target animal (usually not a bear) to present itself, while the idea in hiking is to keep moving along. And maybe I just haven’t been very observant.
I take my 2-year-old son on hiking trails with me. I wouldn’t take my 2-year-old son down city streets after dark in any part of town.
I fully agree with you on the risks.
Don’t forget the copperheads and rabid variety of critters. A .22 revolver is most always my minimum source of insurance in the woods. A .357 mag in town. LOL
Talking about bears on hikes reminds me of discussions about tornado dangers on a storm chase. Most people think the tornado is the most dangerous thing on the storm chase. It’s usually what we have the best fix on, the best focus on alluding, and the most rare of dangers we encounter. Traffic/road problems are the No. 1 danger. Flooding/hydroplaning and lightning are next. Then large hail, then straight line winds in various downdrafts that occur near severe storms.
It’s not about being risk-free. Life is never risk-free. It’s about assessing and managing risks. Lost of people ask hikers about bears first. I’ve been stung by yellow jackets and stared down a Great Dane on hikes. I’ve seen reports of murders and assaults near trails/trailheads I’ve frequented. I am not aware of a single serious bear attack on any local trail I’ve been on. (Do know of some in Smokies and Arkansas, though.) Doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen, or that’s it not something to seriously consider. You are in their territory on the trail. Just means that statistically there is so much else to be concerned about. Driving to and from the trailhead to home safely, especially.
Oh, yes, copperheads. Nearly picked one up in my yard when I was 3. Asked my mother first if I could pick up the “pretty rope.” My mother is not a snake-killer at all, has been known to pick them up and move them if they’re non-poisonous, and to just leave them alone if they are poisonous. But she hacked that one.
Sorry, gang, I have managed to do it again. Mentioned “bear” (earlier it was “Burke’s Garden”) and off we go.
NON_WEATHER COMMENT: I plan on bringing the golf club (if I actually do end up on the AppTrail) to “dissuade” smaller possible troublemakers, such as a bobcat or skunk (heck, unless he/she has rabies or is a mother skunk with little ones in tow, all the skunks I have seen in my life run away as quickly as their wobbly little bodies let them if they see or hear a person …. just don’t corner them). About bears. I seriously doubt that I will see one. From what little I have read or seen on tv or heard from eyewitnesses, springtime is the biggest danger time for bears. Cubs are tinier, more curious, and frankly, more stupid then. And both the cubs and mom are ravenously hungry from birth/hibernation.
I remember being told decades ago by an outdoorsman (maybe one of my dad’s hunting buddies) that most people have become so soft and “urbanized,” that they have become ….. “unaware” that we humans too are animals, and as adults, rather large ones. That has helped me on my postal job, for one thing. I am an animal lover big time, but if ANY animal (possible exception is something as huge as an adult bear) attacks me, and I have anything available as a weapon, I can make things extremely unpleasant for him/her. I have a very defensive personality, I guess one could say. And even though I am old and slow, I still have boffo hand-eye coordination.
It’s 9:25 …. do you know where your new thread is? I just posted a comment, so the odds are high that it will be within 20 minutes.
I just wanted to run the score up over 100 comments — 2 days of gorgeous but quiet weather and off-topic discussion does it now. An afternoon of winter weather watching will do it in a few months.
New thread probably not for another 1-2 hours.
Since it is still not “New-Thread” time, my experience with bears and tornados is EXACTLY the opposite of yours, Weather Wizard. From my first out-of-state trip (to Yellowstone) to several trips to the Rocky Mountains, I have probably seen at least 25 bears over the years, if not 40. I cannot remember seeing one east of the Miss. River, but maybe one or two in northern New England or West-By-God. But zero tornados. Saw the low ominous clouds probably 3 minutes before it became the tornado that went through the southern half of Roanoke a few years back, and once NG and I were driving along I-81 southbound just north of Strasburg (just west of Front Royal) when I saw low black clouds rotating, but no tornado on the ground.
This actually has worked out best for each of us, I think, Kevin. You are a super weather fanatic (big compliment, not a tease), so I bet you got a lot more excited each time you spied a twister. I love weather, but I got excited every time I saw a bear. I have seen plenty of moose, too, which I bet most of you folks (not all, by any means) have never seen in person, because they live in northern climates. Moose: the North American version of the camel, but much more majestic.
I’m a nature observer too, Doug. Have my bird and tree identification books handy on the bookshelf. I fully expect to see a bear amble out of the woods behind our house someday. Would be excited to see one.
I saw 3 tornadoes before I ever started trying to look for them … i.e. without leaving the yard of my childhood/teenage years home. And I saw 6 before the regular storm chase trips started.
Anyone wanna go to Quinwood around September 25th? #SNOW
Yes Zack I would love to go just to see the white stuff
The dryness has really taken hold here. The yard is brown and crunchy, pond is now down over 3.5 feet and falling. This time of year is the best to aerate and over seed your yard. Fertilizer is also important.fall is also a good time to apply mulch to shrubs for protection from winter winds. There are also some signs that the upcoming fall may be cool and wet for our region which may bode poorly for upcoming winter but did view a solid black wooly worm yesterday . Hmm…