UPDATE 9 AM, 9/16: Several days of dry weather will give way to a soaking early next week
UPDATE 9AM: Some showers are already occurring in parts of Southwest, Western and Southside Virginia on this Sunday morning. These will be intermittent through Monday morning, with heavier bands of rain and some storms developing late Monday into Tuesday. Latest radar linked here. END UPDATE
UPDATE 11:45 PM, 9/15: Nothing much to update, with rain expected to roll in Monday and Tuesday. Forecast totals from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center top 3 inches by Tuesday evening from the New River Valley west, with 2-plus inches areawide. Some showers may develop Sunday afternoon and evening, but the heavier rain likely doesn’t arrive until the latter part of Monday into Tuesday. Cooler air still headed our way by midweek — highs may stay in the 60s many places Wednesday, with lows in the 40s just about everywhere by Thursday morning. END UPDATE
This long stretch of pleasant, dry weather has another day or two left in it before it comes to a screeching halt — the dry part, that is.
High pressure behind the latest reinforcing cold front, passing through overnight with little notice, will move east of us by Sunday. This, combined with approaching low pressure from the southwest, will turn winds to the southeast, a critical element in what looks to be a significant to heavy rainfall across all of Southwest Virginia by Monday and Tuesday. That southeasterly wind will bank Atlantic moisture against the gradually rising terrain of the western Piedmont and the steeply rising terrain of the Appalachians, squeezing out some showers as early as late Sunday. As the low approaches from the southwest, it will provide a healthy helping of Gulf of Mexico moisture. This is a classic pattern for large cool-season precipitation makers in the Southeast, Appalachians and East Coast regions. The storm system will even have a northern and southern element “phasing” into a more complex East Coast storm, though this may not happen until it is just past our region. Expect Monday and Tuesday to be rainy days, maybe not constantly but at least frequently, with rainfall amounts likely to top 1 inch regionwide. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is expecting about 2 inches or more through most of the area, and some models have suggested 3-plus will be possible. This should be the widespread soaking that Isaac’s remnants and several other summer systems have not been.
A strong Canadian cold front will push in behind the rain, bringing the first of several blasts of air from the northermost latitudes over the next couple of weeks. This shot will probably not be the biggest of the series, though Thursday morning’s temperature may be in the 40s across the region, similar to this past Tuesday, with maybe a few 30s, all well below normal. Dry air behind the front and sunny skies will allow daytime highs to warm into the 70s, though Thursday may struggle to make that in some locations west of Roanoke.
September 14, 2012 - 10:44 PM
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Another quick, weak El Nino occurred in late 2006 and early 2007. Began in the ASO period at +0.5, then quickly spiked to +0.8, two periods at +1.0, and receded in the DJF period at +0.7 and that was that. The very minimum of 5 straight reporting periods that barely qualified it to be an El Nino.
Roanoke temps were very warm for three of the 4 “winter” months: +5.9 in Dec. (cold for 3rd – 9th), +5.4 (two of final 3 days in Jan. were bitterly cold, but dry), -4.9 (the one month of winter), and +6.0 in March (just before the devastating freezes around April 9th). Snow was tiny in ROA: Trace in DEC and JAN, 3.4″ (all on Feb. 6-7), and Trace again in March. Bburg in separate comment. I already had to re-type this stuff once when I hit the back button from this screen by accident! LOL
All that snow in Feb. 2007 came with an Alberta clipper. North side of Roanoke, including airport, got more than south side of valley did, more like 1-2 inches.
0Z GFS going bonkers with rainfall. You can’t even see western Virginia on the map for all the purple/red colors, peaking at about 4+ inches basically over Roanoke.
http://tinyurl.com/9gg7m6d
All this discussion and visiting of Burke’s Garden has made me pull out my AT book which says that it got its name after James Burke, a chain carrier on a survey crew in 1748 who had buried potato peelings from dinner. Returning the following spring, the peelings had sprouted a nice crop of potato plants so his friends jokingly called the place “Burke’s Garden”. It had been hunting grounds for the Shawnee. Looks like best view of the Gardens is off of 727 at Walker Gap, then hike west on the AT to Chestnut Knob. ….I may have to do some exploring today with the good weather!
Question Kevin – any suggestions for a portable and inexpensive thermometer to carry that is better than the kind that hang off a zipper? I’m thinking of something like the H-B Enviro-safe closed pocket thermometer that measures 0 to 120F…sort of like a pen but lightweight and easy to take along for hiking.
Good Morning from the damp side of your sunset
outside of Gun Barrel City Texas..
Not much rain here overnight….BUT
at 9pm last night it was 66F..
Life is becoming not hide and seek again.
My charts show your power wash to begin about mid day
Monday..24 to 36 hours worth before pushing east into the Atlantic.
Last night through this morning moisture spinning off Corpus Christi that will sling some T
71F right now..or at the 10am obs in Roanoke..66F here in DFW.
You win…and im very ok with that.
Sling some moisture from Texas and the gulf to help
with your gauges is what i was trying to say.
…Blog entries are very finicky this morning..
Appeared to wipe it out..blank screen..
then rejected most of my retry..then jumbled them up.
Any suggestions for Hokie Trax from commenters? I usually defer equipment questions to others. Not my strong suit.
Hokie…
Try this to get started…
Burkes Garden..and other ad hoc places would
be fun over the fall and winter.
http://www.professionalequipment.com/digital-thermometers/
12z GFS takes the heaviest totals to our west, but gives SW and Western VA and healthy dose.
http://i46.tinypic.com/11bmfec.gif
Hokie Trax, jest read and look and drool til your hearts content.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/index.asp#hardware
Thanks Joe for the time on the arrival of the rain. Have several perennials that I bought on clearance and I am thinking this weekend would be a great time to get them in the ground.
I’ve been a little hesitant to jump on the high-end amounts of rain with this storm. 1 inch with locally 2-3 seems about right to me, just based on history of these type systems. Without solid tropical connection we don’t usualy get the 3+ stuff areawide. But we’ll see.
It is a bit odd to see the stripe of heaviest rain where it is on the GFS map Ben posted, not riding up the eastern side of the Blue Ridge.
How has yalls drought gotten in TX? Any improvment and how much and where is it better.
Except for the fact that I will get wet on Monday afternoon while delivering to one of two walking routes, I am rooting for a big rainstorm. I am getting a bit of a taste of what it must be like to be a snow-lover, because yesterday and also on the link that KM posted to a comment about midnight, it showed that SW Virginia was going to be swamped. Now the bullseye is to our west, and our forecasted amount has dropped. I bet tomorrow’s model(s) reduce the expected amount even more.
I think the models are just drifting back toward reality. How many widespread 3+ inch rainstorms have we had without the input of at least a quasi-tropical system? I’m sure it’s happened but nothing rings a bell right off the bat. Most of our non-tropical soakers are 1-2 inch jobs with some heavier amounts.
Good afternoon blog friends. We are having a gorgeous day here in the Chapel and I of all people can say that. Last Sunday I ended up in Bristol Regional Medical Center with a mild heart attack and then on Wednesday I had five bypasses placed in my heart. I have never smoked but my diet has lacked. I have a strong family history but I am among the living, recuperating and Blessed. GIG – God is Good. I have a new lease on life and more desire than ever to see the snow this winter. Take care my friends and life is precious.
Michael: God bless you and glad you’re still with us. May you enjoy some rain out your window the next couple of days.
NAM and GFS have backed off on higher totals. Newest HPC QPF map seems to generally agree. 1-2 inches looks like a good bet at this point, with possibly higher amounts locally.
Phasing between the northern and southern stream waves is also a little late too for this to be that really big rainstorm. That also sounds like typical snowstorm talk around here.
I would not be all that surprised if this ended up begin a .75-1.25 type rain with some 2-inch local amounts.
HPC still has a stripe of 3 inches+ in New River Valley/I-77 corridor.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif
Any of these amounts we’re throwing around, on a widespread basis, would be first rain of that type since May.
Oh wow Michael, glad to hear you are OK now.
Checked out some of the models this afternoon…I’ll have to add my 2 cents worth that 1 – 2″ is looking likely. The previous QPF map that tilted to the higher end just felt really unrealistic.
Why is September seems to have such big rain systems? I’ll never forget Sept 30, 2010; I had tickets for K92 event in downtown Rke and I was terrified it would be cancelled because of flooding/heavy rain (it wasn’t, thankfully, the rain broke midday). Seems like 4″ totals come to mind but that’s just a blind guess.
Michael..
Splendorous is the early snow that leaves
just a few spiky weeds for us to ponder..
May you have many more of those quiet white
mornings to have with your tea.
I found Dave Tolleris’ Sept 15 discussion on the El Nino that won’t quite happen, very interesting. A must read for all weather dudes and dudetts.
http://www.wxrisk.com/?cat=16
Does it look like the heavier rain will take place Monday or Tuesday? My class has an outdoor field trip to an apple orchard Tuesday planned.
I know we need rain but that is terrible timing. (No matter when rain comes it is always terrible timing for someone!)
The latest HPC map is incredible. If this storm was happening about 10 weeks from now, we would be in the bullseye of a snow event comparable to 93 and 96. Could you imagine the anticipation……
Timing would favor more rain late Monday/early Tuesday, with showers possible Sunday PM/early Modnay.
Michael Hoback – so sorry to hear your news but so glad to hear of your improvement. Take care and take it easy – rest! Sending you get well wishes from Dopplerville.
Any amount of rain will be most welcomed up here on the ridge – come on down!
HokieTrax (possibly “in mourning” HokieTrax right now), a quick note about Walker Gap. For any of you hikers here, I saw a sign on the App Trail practically at the Route 623 junction. “Walker Gap 4.17 miles.” I guess that would be heading either south or west. FYI. I have no idea how strenuous it would be. Might not be all that bad because I imagine the AT stays pretty close to the ridgetop. There was one small section of AT near RTE 623 that seemed very steep to me, but I bet that it wasn’t more than 100 yards in length.
First – hope you are feeling better Mike Hoback! Reporting back from Burke’s Garden – a nice day for a day road trip. I took I77 to 42 and then got on 623. It quickly turned into a one-lane gravel road, actually a pretty well-maintained one. Kept going, kept going, and after awhile hoped I was still on 623. Went up and then down and then up again and saw that I was getting to the south rim ridge. Finally passed the AT crossing which had no sign at all but I could see the white blazed trees on either side. Decided to keep going and stopped at one point to take a photo from the top. It was hazy but the view was pretty nice. I crossed the Garden, stopping to take photos of an old store (different than the one that closed), the arrows that show which direction and how far to the people who live there, the historical marker (supposedly near where the potatoes grew!) Once inside, you don’t have the sense at all that you are in this bowl which made me wonder how those early surveying parties figured it out. The temperature was much cooler than Hokieburg and the sun broke out in places. Went up and over the other side on the paved part of 623 but still very windy and then took 61 where I noticed they have sprayed herbicide on the sides of the road to control the vegetation and that some trees are beginning to turn. Finally got “Bill and Mike” on the radio past the Big Walker Tunnel and discovered the Hokies had LOST! Oh my! Some antique/junk store therapy in W-ville helped on the drive back. Thanks to the blog folks for the inspiration to check the Garden out! Thanks joe and wdbrand for the site suggestions…checking them out.
NRV Link-Man Rick, thanks (actually, THANKS VERY MUCH) for posting the Dave Tolleris looooong discussion. I am only halfway through it, and am already lost. Talks about El Nino that hasn’t happened and won’t happen (in his opinion) because of something called “SOI.” If he described what SOI stood for, I did not see it. It will be interesting to see if his prediction of no El Nino will come true. The water temps in the 3.4 area have been warmer than +0.5 every time I have looked since August, but perhaps he has knowledge that they will cool off soon. I do agree with him that even if an El Nino does develop, it will be a weak one and won’t last long at all.
I am hoping that later on in the 2nd half of his statement he will talk about his outlook for the NAO this winter and the polar vortex situation.
SOI = Southern Oscillation Index. It is kind of similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in that it is a comparison of pressure in two different places in the south Pacific, specifically Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. When pressure is lower at Tahiti and higher in Australia, the SOI is negative, and this connected to El Nino episodes. Reverse that, and the SOI is positive, connected to La Nina episodes.
More below:
http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/192.html
Ah, that explains what D. Tolleris was getting at. I am fairly sure that the SOI starts to go negative, but then reverses ditrection without being able to sustain a negative phase for long. He also spoke of a GWO, Global Wind Oscillation, also bouncing back and forth, no steadiness in one direction.
Oh, one more thing. He absolutely, categorically stated (for those of you familiar with “Dave-talk,” you know that sometimes he has all the tact and subtlety of a Sherman tank) that the upcoming cold weather push into what I labelled the core Big Ten states in about a week will be because of an extreme PNA reading, not because of the NAO.
There is some degree of blocking high pressure over Greenland (NAO-), but as Tolleris asserts, it’s definitely the high pressure in the western half of North American (PNA+) that is extreme and pile-driving the cold air south. PNA-driven cold outbreaks here tend to be a little more off and on — a couple of days of relative cold, then warming before the next front comes through — than steadier NAO-driven ones. That’s why we’ll see some days bounce back to near normal temperatures between the cold shots, which indeed will be centered on “Big Ten” country (Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest) and we’ll be getting a slightly moderated version of it as it spreads eastward. That may spare us from a serious early frost problem but provide us several below-normal temperature days, and yet, we may have 1 or 2 cold mornings with quite a few 30s lows.
Mr. Hoback, I am very sorry that you had an extreme health condition recently (I missed your comments!!), but am glad that you seem to be on the mend. Once you get back on your feet and your doctor says that you can start to get some walking exercise, you can visit Roanoke on some day when I am doing “the monster” postal route and I will give you an hour of deliveries, which is what we letter carriers call a “help load.” I guarantee that that will be a great workout ……. and I won’t even charge you for being your “personal fitness trainer” for that day! :>) :>) :>) Seriously, do get better, Rain Man. Reduce your intake of fats and carbohydrates …. I had to do that starting 2+ years ago and I am in somewhat better health because of it.
Hokietrax…I got a Brunton from Amazon for about $50 last year for my Snowshoe trips. Has temp, wind speed, wind chill and highs (or lows) for each. Works great.
The 0Z NAM tonight, still showing the stripe of heaviest rain mostly west of Roanoke, but 1-inch-plus areawide.
http://tinyurl.com/8uvok9v
GFS just starting to roll in.
And the new GFS — with its farther west heavy stripe, but another somewhat heavier zone over Roanoke/New River valleys, circling around a lesser rain area west of I-77 that’s exactly where the NAM is the heaviest. Still 1+ areawide, though.
http://tinyurl.com/9vpofwh
Doug – on my AT map (1998), it shows Walker Gap at 4.9 miles from 623. I must have missed that sign. Looks like you can get to Walker Gap by car or close via 727 which comes from either 623 or 667. It shows parking but probably no more than a pull off area. A mile and a half from there going west is the Chestnut Knob Shelter and supposedly an overlook place (little camera icon on the map). Did you see the old hillside cemetery near the Lutheran church? I stopped there…very interesting.
00z Monday evening ..6 pm-ish local..
Heaviest rains from Nashville to cntrl WVA.
3 plus inches looking more iffy
than ever for SWVA.
Michael: What a horrible scare for you. I hope your recovery is a speedy one!
Already some showers around this morning.
Official NWS forecasts this morning have both Blacksburg and Roanoke getting between 1.95″ and 3.85″ of rain from today through Tuesday night. Basically calling for a minimum of 2″ area wide. One area of concern is the verbiage in their forecast. Calling for “showers”, with never once a mention of just “rain”. Seems if we were truly lined up for 2″+ we would have “rain”, not just “showers”. We shall see.
Storm Prediction Center has circled most of Virginia from the Blue Ridge eastward for a threat of severe storms on Tuesday, as convection along an advancing cold front encounters strong shearing winds aloft. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. Would not be surprised to see a few brief tornadoes in central and eastern Virginia. I think the morning timing and rain-cooled temperatures will make this a marginal threat for most of SW Virginia, but the shear will definitely present to give any storms that can form a spin.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
HPC has generally 1.75-2.5 amounts for our region through Wednesday AM:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif
Started here at 9:40AM. Rite got steady rain now. Coming to an area near you.
Doug – I believe today it is raining Hokie tears here in Hokieburg….
Very obvious swirl going on over SW Texas pulling in rich moisture from the south.
http://i45.tinypic.com/25h1r8w.gif
Still in shock that the Hokies lost.
I know I shouldn’t want this, but I want this to miss like so many snow storms of the past. Have a busy couple of days in sports and outdoor activities coming up.
We don’t miss too many forecasted “Miller A” type (Gulf lows) snowstorms entirely. Usually what we miss are smaller disturbances that track slightly off course, Alberta clippers, the southern end of Miller B’s, etc. This rain system resembles a Miller A. Very unlikely we’ll miss it entirely. But getting less rain than projected is possible.
I always respect different people’s wants and needs with weather, always knowing that it’s never going to please or accommodate everyone. The rain a drought-hindered farmer needs for his crops ruins the outdoor wedding down the road.
I know and it’s very selfish of me.
Our games etc will get a makeup an we need the rain.
I got some brief rain on my first golf round in 15 days this morning. So I returned to a nearby shelter and waited the 10-15 minutes for it to go by. I think this is the 2nd time in the last few weeks that there was a surprise Sunday morning rainstorm. Maybe NWS and possibly even “7″ mentioned the possibility of it, but the hourly forecast on TWC sure did not have it.
Blacksburg Mike, I am also a bit skeptical (if indeed you were/are skeptical) of the very healthy amounts being forecasted, but still another Griggs prediction went down in flames …. I thought that by today the models would be showing much lower amounts for SW Virginia in general. Not so. For those of us who want a big rain from this, the models are not bailing out on us/you. Still, I will believe I am gonna get more than an inch of rain (I already got 0.10 this A.M.) from this system when I see it in my rain gauge. It has been more than 3 months here since I have had truly emerald green conditions …. I would like to see them return.
I wonder if I will see the fairly big toad in my driveway tonight ….. If I do, then I will be a believer! :>) :>) :>) Hey, Other John, how was your camping trip?
No need to apologize, Keith. I am hoping that conditions are not too bad tomorrow during the day (until 3:30 or 4 PM), because delivering mail in heavy rain on a walking route is negative fun. Luckily I get to ride on Tuesday, when the rain is more likely to be heavy (I think).
You don’t need internet to tell the weather. I’ve probably got a dozen weather sites marked, as do a lot of you weather nuts. However, the best weather forecaster lives right beside you all year long. You only have to tune into his broadcast. Watch the varmits. Saw 13 deer out in the field below the house. Came in just now and checked the barometer. Tells me 6 to 12 hours out, it will happen. They make their living out there you know.
Latest NAM model depiction of rainfall focuses heaviest 3-plus stripe right over NRV/I-77 corridor/edging into Roanoke area next 72 hours:
http://tinyurl.com/9qxeblk
Overcast-cooled high of 66 for Roanoke today is coolest since May 14. Blacksburg’s 65 coolest since June 2.
Cloudy, rainy days early this week, then cold fronts will continue to erode the monthly average temperature that started above normal because of sticky nights with tropical moisture to start month.
Around daybreak on Tue it seems as to when
heaviest rains will start in SWVA…
By Wed noon cold front should be more or less
north-south orientation Syracuse to Fayetteville NC
bending west into the Gulf across northern Florida ..
Rains and low ceilings should be moving pretty much due east..
Im thinking mid morning Wed itll be cleared out.
This front wont drop temps much..and as of now..the second “reinforcing”
front expected to be over the Dakotas noonish Wednesday will not have a big impact on lowering temps…middle and latter part of this week in SWVA look very typical early fall bright cool mornings and warm afternoons.
I will enjoy the rain for the next few days as we very badly need it; but I am hoping for dry weather next week for my beach trip. What is the 8 to 14 day outlook like? I would really like to have sunny days and temps from 75 to 80 at Litchfield Beach, SC next week. Any chance I will get what I wish for?
Saw two does then two six point bucks birds have been eating like crazy falling weather cannot be far away. The deer by the way are changing color now almost complete on a doe and the velvet is gone from their horns. A little early for rut but the two boys sure were following the girls almost track for track. A cool day to spread dirt only ran out of daylight for seeding moved 2.5 loads today sure are getting slow
wdbrand – interested in your varmit forecasters. Does that work for squirrels? Today they were all over the place in my woods, very active, and it seemed I could get very close to them before they ran off. Are they busy eating because they sense inclement weather is coming? Someone on the blog had a cat that went bonkers when snow was coming.
Had “0.06″ inches of rain earlier in the day. Clouds/fog moved in around 7:30 pm tonight. Still seeing solid light brown wooly worms around here.
Agree with Joe that this week’s front (actually fronts, as there will be 2 passing through quickly) isn’t the major cold push. Wednesday will be breezy and kinda chilly, highs in the 60s, and Thursday morning will be similar to last Tuesday with lots of 40s and maybe a spot or two in the 30s. Next Sunday’s cold front is likely to be a colder push for us. Coldest air still going to be centered in Upper Midwest/Great Lakes more than here, but I think west of I-81 in particular may get scattered frost by early next week.
Hey Doug, the camping trip was really nice, until this morning when we got into a solid rain, it started before sunrise, and was still raining when we left camp around 1030. The weather Friday and Saturday was great though. Got to enjoy some of the trails at Staunton River State Park, and the scenery. Also watched some boaters get stuck in Buggs Island Lake…water is about 10 feet low, to keep SML and Gaston near full pond.
We’ve got a deal though…if anyone is having a drought, recommend a campground nearby for us to visit. We’re 2 for 2 on the year of camping in areas with a drought and bringing rain with us…when no rain was forecasted for the weekend.
Speaking of varmints, I was moving down the 10th fairway at Hunting Hills GC (in Roanoke County, not all that far from Tanglewood Mall) this morning when a hen turkey came scampering across the cart path in front of me. All by her lonesome. Further proof of your assertion, wd. It rained while I was on the 14th hole.
Kevin,
I recall in one post about rainfall potential being greater than 2+ inches and that you stated that it’s doubtful to get more than that out of a non-tropical system.
However, I don’t know it has been stated or asked, but is this system part of the the spawn of Isaac that reformed off the coast?
Nate: I said I doubted we would have 3+ inches across the region, which some models were showing earlier, without a tropical influence. This is not in any way related to Isaac, whose remains were swept away with last weekend’s cold front.