Showery weather ahead for us, especially early next week; meanwhile, a hurricane keeps churning for weeks in Atlantic
Nearly 2 weeks later, Hurricane Nadine is back. The plucky storm in the open Atlantic first gained its name when it reached tropical storm strength way back on Sept. 11, got upgraded to a hurricane on Sept. 14, was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm on Sept. 16, became a subtropical storm and then a post-tropical cyclone on the evening of Sept. 21, and was so disorganized on Sept. 22 that the National Hurricane Center didn’t even issue a statement on it. But Nadine got a second wind the next day, and has been meandering around as a tropical storm ever since. On Friday, Nadine regained hurricane status. Nadine is currently projected to remain at least a tropical storm through Wednesday, which would take its life to 25 days. The longest-lived tropical systems in Atlantic basin history are the San Ciriaco hurricane of 1899 (28 days) and Hurricane Ginger in 1971 (27.25 days). Nadine’s brief intermission from being a named tropical system might make its eligibility for that record a little fuzzy, but it’s still a tropical circulation with rare longevity.
We don’t have any tropical systems affecting us, but the Gulf of Mexico will come into play as a significant source of moisture by early in the coming week. First, we have a weak cold front that is pushing through, that will stall just south of us the next couple of days. Ripples of low pressure moving along this front may trigger some showers in Southwest Virginia from time to time — not a wall-to-wall washout, by any means, but don’t be surprised to see some rain falling at times, especially on Saturday. Behind the front, highs will cool off from the stickiness of recent days, mostly 60s and 70s, with morning lows mostly in the 50s, buoyed some by moisture and clouds. By Monday and Tuesday, the low pressure system that is soaking very parched areas of central and western Texas (3-plus inches of rain in Midland, Texas) will advance eastward along the Gulf Coast, eventually throwing Gulf moisture over the front and the somewhat cooler air mass in place over the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to a period of showery rain, and maybe some steadier to even locally heavy rain. Around 1 inch of rain seems to be a decent bet for now on Monday and Tuesday, though this could shift up and down depending on some details of the storm system’s movement. We may get a dry day out of Sunday, but the early to possibly middle part of next week looks damp to downright soaking wet.
A little farther out on the horizon, it does appear likely that another surge of colder air from Canada will be gathering and flooding southward 8-10 days out. The blues, representing below-normal temperatures at the 850 millibar level (about a mile up) on Friday’s 12Z run of the European model depict this well — other models show similar outcomes. So the weather pattern dominated by cool, dry northwesterly wind flow from Canada is likely to re-assert itself, after this somewhat warmer and wetter interlude.