The seasons have shifted big time; dry weekend may turn rainy early next week, with blasts of early cold after that
Blacksburg’s low of 47 on Thursday morning was the fifth in a row below 50 degrees. That hadn’t happened since there were 12 in a row from April 5 to 16, including three below-freezing mornings. Before dropping into the 50s late Saturday night, Roanoke had gone 71 days without a low below 60 degrees. Friday, most likely, will make seven in a row. That reflects how much the weather pattern has turned recently from the first 8 months that have skewed warm — second warmest winter, warmest March, warmest spring and warmest July on record — and the coolness will likely get more extreme in coming days.
As forecast model runs have continued to portray a developing pattern that will funnel cold air from the most northern latitudes southward into the central and eastern U.S. over the next two weeks, it’s not the extreme nature of the cold I’m taken with — though it is possible there will be some record or near-record cold in there a day or two, possibly for us, more likely for the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest regions. It is the longevity that impresses me most, so early in the fall season. Once a strong cold front pushes in toward the middle of next week, there are likely to be multiple pushes of unseasonably cold air from near the Arctic Circle southward over the central Canadian prairies into the U.S. This is because strong high pressure, with unseasonably warm weather underneath, is building across the West Coast, western Canada and Alaska, as well as over Greenland. You may hear about an unusual return of summerlike warmth in some of those areas even as you hear about, and perhaps experience, an unusually arrival of wintertime chill in much of the central and eastern U.S. If some of the model forecasts verify, I could foresee 2-3 weeks of lows in the 40s most nights and highs in the 70s, with a few days mixed in with lows in the 30s in many parts of Southwest Virginia. At the upper end of extremes, the developing weather pattern (really, it’s already started, with this past week’s first push of Canadian air) has the potential to be a truly historic bout of September cold, with some early killing frosts in some areas of the Upper Midwest and Northeast (maybe even some frost for us) and some oddly early snowflakes in the Great Lakes and maybe even highs spots of the central and northern Appalachians. At the low end of the possibilities, we get a rather prolonged period of below-normal temperatures, rising to near normal just before each new push of Arctic/Canadian air arrives.
The weekend will see a slight reinforcement of the current temperature regime, reinforcing the generally near-normal 70s highs/50s lows pattern. Roanoke hit 80 on Thursday and 81 on Wednesday, and may get another low 80s high on Friday. After so many dry days, moisture will be slowly building toward the end of this weekend and early next week, and there are some growing indications of a potential storm system developing in the Ohio Valley and/or the South that could scoop some Gulf of Mexico and/or Atlantic moisture our way and squeeze it out into some rain through the early to middle part of next week. Forecast models still vary quite a bit on the details of this storm system’s development, but the Hydrometetorological Prediction Center is now suggesting amounts near 1 inch may occur Monday and Tuesday. Development of a substantial storm system this far south, leading to any kind of general rain shield as opposed to the spotty showery stuff we’ve seen with almost every system since May, would be yet another indication of just how much the weather pattern has changed.
September 13, 2012 - 11:41 PM
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HPC ratcheting up on rainfall next week:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif
Perhaps the first general areawide 1-plus-inch rain since May?
It’s interesting that the latest HPC map shows the “bullseye” of heaviest rain right over top of the NRV and RNK. We have usually been in the rain shadow/dry slot. Nice to finally be in the crosshairs. Hope it works out.
Beyond a vague reference to the potential for a wet storm system forming in this pattern, I’ve been admittedly a little reluctant to jump on this potential rain event. Maybe it just seems too early for such a late fall/winter/early spring-looking storm system. But the ducks are starting to get in a row for it. If it happens, congrats to all the forecasters who have been calling for it a few days.
An interesting BBC article today on a new winter forecasting model the Met Office in Britain is using at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19584302 It also has a satellite image from 2010/11 winter of the entire country covered in snow.
Rain and a nice amount would be nice. Temps thru fall will average below normal with normal rain fall. Winter is still to far off but a cool to cold fall does not look good for snow lovers. Again this is just my opinion based on what models I read
Awesome pictures on CNN.com frontpage right now featuring O. Winston Link. One is a snowy pic of the Shaffers Crossing shops that should be the top nomination for the Snow Lover’s Club Christmas card this year!!!
Enjoy the pics!!
http://cnnphotos.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/14/illuminating-an-american-railroad/?hpt=hp_c1
I know, the bear tale was a couple of posts back. But this is a mighty good read on bears and will answer any questions posted so far. http://www.dgif.virginia.gov/wildlife/bear/black-bear-factsheet.pdf
Randy: It always seems to me — no rigorous scientific research to back it up — that a late October/November prolonged cold spell (I mean weeks, not a few cold days) is usually the death knell for winter in December and early January. This may be early enough that it bounces back to warm early enough that the next cold cycle is closer to early winter. All speculation.
Roanoke’s coldest fall on record in 1976 did proceed the second coldest winter on record in 1976-77. The third coldest fall in 1917 did proceed the epic extreme cold/heavy snow winter of 1917-18. But some of the other colder falls were followed by unremarkable winters.
Good fact sheet on bears, WD. Confirms my thoughts that I should be more concerned in my yard than on a hiking trail.
12Z GFS showing snow by Tuesday afternoon in the upper peninsula of Michigan.
Also depicting 3+ inches of rain right smack through our region:
http://tinyurl.com/8tlfn4l
Winter of 1977 was the year I married the best girl ever and we went to Freeport in the Bahamas in Janurary . One of the first times in recent history snow flurries occurred which resulted in most shops closing to observe this event. If my memory serves me correctly there was a low temp of -11 at my parents house which led to frozen water pipes and caused diesel vehicles fuel to jell like jello causing them not to run . Hopefully this is not in our future
Also of note KM,is the fact that up to 2009, there’s never been a documented report of a fatality due to a black bear in the state of Va. So, go hike and make racket.
I looked back through the previous thread again. Mike in Marshall, thanks for the compliment. Glad that you enjoyed my description.
wd and Shanon, what was I thinking (about the corn)? Of course they only get one planting there. And I bet the farmers there planted a week or so later than normal this year, because of what was happening in early June. Remember how delightful it was for those of us who don’t want hot weather? First 17-18 days were nice and cool. Well, I bet they were so cool up in BG that the farmer’s decided to wait a few extra days before planting the corn then.
Overall on a 1-to-ten scale, I would rate my Burke’s Garden trip about a 7. I thought it was going to end up a 1 or 2 when I got to the former General Store and it was “fog city.” It would have been a BWOTAMAMOTC (translation … Big Waste Of Time And Money And Miles On The Car) if I had gotten pessimistic and backtracked out of the valley. I am also glad that I decided to try to get up to the south rim, which I was hesitant about. Road was narrow and if some other driver had come barreling downhill at me, I would have been in a pickle. As it was, I don’t think I saw any other drivers at all, although maybe one guy was going up and driving fine when I descended.
ONE WORD OF CAUTION: There is one spot on RTE 623 about a half-mile before you reach the App Trail that was unbelievably steep to my left. Wouldn’t want to be there either during or just after a torrential rainstorm.
wd …. good for the Virg. DGIF! On page 4 of that link you provided in your 2:11 PM comment, one of the suggestions is to “MAKE LOUD NOISES.” Absolutely …. they despise the loud noises.
To sort of “go along” with what Kevin said in his 4:49 pm comment, I am hoping for a cold November. I have seen what a warm one can lead to ….. November 2009, a +4-something vs. normal, then Sam Oakey and I were besieged.
I still have a very strong feeling, and that is all that it is, that this winter is going to be one of on again-off again, with the “agains” possibly lasting up to 4 or 5 weeks. The following is an exaggeration, but basically from mid-December 2009 through early March 2010 was nearly all cold, and so was the following winter from Dec. 2, 2010 through about Feb. 12, 2011, and of course last winter was just about all warm. I think this winter will stop that general “all-cold-or-all-warm” streakiness.
I’m with you on the last comment, Doug. I’m expecting an alternating sort of winter, not warm/cold for months like last 3. El Nino winters, when not coupled with some constantly extreme negative NAO/AO like 2009-10, are often like that.
What a great week of weather,lows in the upper 40`s and high`s in the upper 70`s.My family is leaving Sunday for Nags Head for a week!I`ll miss this site and all of your comments.I`ll be back home Friday the 21`st.Hope the weather down there is sunny and warm!Everyone have a great weekend!Go Redskins!
Great, Kevin. Unfortunately, we could both be very wrong …. Meanwhile, both of today’s CPC multi-day forecasts continue to show the cold air centered in the core states of the Big Ten Conference (Wisc.-MICH-Illinois-Indiana). Ohio is in the core on the 8-14 day.
Hey, ANYONE (especially you, Statistician Kevin), do you know where or how to find out how much snow Blacksburg got during the winter of 1997-1998? Roanoke airport got very little, I believe. But I went back through my long-distance memory, and even though Roanoke was swimming with just about 8 inches of rain in both January and February of 1998, I know for a fact that Beckley, WV was buried in snow. I am also wondering how much snow either of the Bluefields got, and also Wytheville, if that would be accessible somehow. It could be that ROA escaped a possibly very snowy winter then by a relatively small number of miles.
I have encountered bear numerous times and never been bothered. However I have been bitten and chased by dogs on more than one occasion. Last year there were 31 fatal dog attacks in the U.S. See link – http://www.dogsbite.org/dog-bite-statistics-fatalities-2011.php
I know we can use the rain, but we have our first football game Tuesday after 7 weeks of practice. If we get the downpour it won’t happen
I am doing a research project. Trouble is, I should post this in early November, not now. Whatever ….
I have detailed data (both by individual days and months) for both Roanoke and Blacksburg dating back to 1-1-2000. There have been two weak El Ninos in these nearly 13 years (stronger ones were in 2003 and of course 2009-10). First one was a very weak one from the June-July-August measurement in 2004 through the DJF period of 2005. Peaked at a measly -0.7 for 5 straight periods. This upcoming El Nino could end up that weak. What happened those winter months (I include March as a “winter” month)? Basically warm for both Roanoke and Blacksburg, but there were significant albeit brief cold spells mixed in. For the months Dec. through March, the ROA monthly figures vs. normal were +0.4, +4.7 (!!), +2.6, and -3.1. Roanoke snowfalls: 0, 3″, 9.1″, and 3.2″ For Blacksburg, the temps: -0.3, +4.5, +3.7, and -1.7. Bburg snow: 0.4, 5.3″, 10.3″, and 6.9″. Biggest snow in each city happened on Feb. 27th-28th (If we must have real snow, I LOVE those late winter ones!!). 7.3″ in ROA on FEB 28th, 7.5″ in BBG on the 27th-28th. BBurg got a nice 3.6″ on the 16th-17th of March. Definitely most of that season’s snow happened late, technically after El Nino had ended.
The real cold spells happened between DEC 14-28, JAN 17-29, AND FEB 25TH-MAR 18TH.
Randy sort of had what I also had in my mind too Kevin. I was wondering if all the cold air could possibly be drained out. In that case, I’d want a plug to this cold air so it can bottle out in the winter!
This winter could have the potential to be like 02-02 or 03-04. I believe those were alternating with decent snows in both, but no big un’s or dry areas.
1997-98 snow: Blacksburg 44.4 inches, Roanoke 10.9. Blacksburg almost always gets more snow than Roanoke in a season, but not by a 4:1 ratio.
Blacksburg’s 20 inch wet snow dump in late January was the major difference. Roanoke was officially 2 inches for that event, though some higher elevations at the rim of the valley had 10+. That’s the one we discussed quite a bit last winter which you don’t remember, Doug, but probably would have if you lived where you do now.
GEFS ensemble at the Roanoke River(Walnut Ave) in Roanoke showing a mean of just a little above 2 inches of rain.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/serfc/GEFS/gif/RONV2.GEFS.ACCUM.expvalue.gif