A cold front that will live up to its name
By Kathryn Prociv
This time tomorrow, it will finally feel like fall. In fact, it may feel like we went straight from summer to winter skipping fall altogether. The culprit? A strong cold front. As discussed in yesterday’s blog post, we will be impacted by a cold front that has been marching across the country over the past several days. It finally arrives today, bringing colder temperatures, gusty northwest winds, and drier air. The timeline of the front looks to be between 11am and 2pm for the New River and Roanoke Valleys, and will be completely through Southside by 5pm. Image shows current temperatures around 10am where you can clearly pick out the location of the front. Don’t expect too much precipitation with the passing of the front, however, as it is fairly dry and lacking upper-air support to generate enough lift for precipitation. Nonetheless pay attention to the passing of the front: you should notice an increase in cloud cover and feel the winds pick up and switch directions around to the northwest. Not to mention a drop in temperatures! I saw a report on Twitter this morning that at around 10am it was 41 degrees in Columbus, OH and 66 degrees in Roanoke.
As the title suggests, this cold front will live up to its name. Sure we’ve had a few cold fronts swing through over the last couple weeks, but none really brought a dramatic temperature decrease. Get ready, because this one will pack a punch. It will pack such a punch that I’m going to mention the s-word. S-N-O-W. (Kevin what have you done leaving me to mention the first possibility of snow?!) Before you get too excited, I’m not entirely convinced that snowflakes will fly. However, I still think it’s worth mentioning. Tomorrow looks to be very wet in our area. Check out the HPC forecasted precipitation totals for this morning through Monday morning. Now the real question will be: will the coldest air line up with the precipitation? Models are conflicting a little bit regarding how far south the cold air will surge, i.e. that 0-degree Celsius line at 850mb that will support snow. The NAM model is slightly colder than the GFS (pictured) showing that freezing line hovering just north of our area tomorrow afternoon. Here’s a snippet from the Blacksburg NWS area forecast discussion this morning: “850MB TEMPS DO DROP INTO THE -2C RANGE SUN ACROSS THIS REGION…BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH TO ANY EXTENT. THUS…HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF S- AT THIS POINT.” Like me, they are not convinced flakes will fly. However, my final take: IF (a BIG if) there are snowflakes tomorrow, I think they will be very isolated in nature and at the higher elevations (above 3,000ft) of West Virginia, Pocahontas, Bath, and Highland counties so north of our region. Further north is also where there will be more upper air support to possibly incite enough lift to generate some snowflakes.
Conclusion: Break out your umbrellas and winter coats because tomorrow looks wet and cold. Tomorrow should be a great day for indoor activities, such as watching football, and a hot soup kind of day. Monday morning could see frost, so plan accordingly for any outdoor plants. I’m ready for the onslaught: the S-word has been served!
October 6, 2012 - 12:40 PM
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High temperatures today will be variable depending on what time the front passes through. Mid-60s for locations west, and mid-70s for areas east of the Blue Ridge into the Piedmont region where the front will cross a little later in the day.
Temperatures tomorrow for the entire area will be 40s-50s. A big difference compared to yesterdays highs of 70s and 80s!
Defintely feeling the cold front moving through out this way. Had the windows open earlier but had to close them because it got breezy and the temp is dropping. I really was hoping for some sun but alas, it is gone too. I like winter and winter weather but am not looking forward to a chilly, wet day tomorrow.
My last post didnt disappear…
It just never showed up.
Still summer here, but not in SW Virginia. 66* (at RRA) at 5:20 PM? Probably with a wind, too. Hey, KP, how about posting a comment or update with one more rainfall estimate from the HPC guys? I noticed that the estimate yesterday for Monday was 1.2something, but had fallen to 0.81 by today’s run. Not a good trend for those among us who want a 1-inch (or even 0.75 inch) rainfall.
That’s one thing I learned many years ago from Kevin, watch the trends in precip estimates as a storm system approaches. Looks like I am going to miss most of the rain as we drive home on Monday (via Chattanooga and Bristol) from somewhere in Alabama.
Joe I just laughed out loud at your “9 fainting goats” comment earlier. Now that I think about it my Hokie’s looked like fainting goats on defense today, ugh.
High of 45º up here with rain, yucky day tomorrow for sure. Still 59º at 5:50 p.m. though.
It’s actually already gotten chilly and breezy here, temps dropped several degrees and the sun came out for a spell. Feels nice. Now, off to clean the fireplace and get ready for the first fire of the season. At least that will warm my heart today, unlike the Hokies and their terrible game at UNC…ugh.
User error Joe. Try again, like we all have to do at times.
DC, after you get it cleaned out, your stink bug problem will disappear as soon as you throw the match in. 100% GUARANTEED. At least in the flue.
I was out doing a yard sale in Floyd this morning and it started out nice but then about 11 the dark clouds rolled in and the wind picked up and the temperature started going down. Did have a few light sprinkles after noon.
wd – cap is off the chimney; wood is brought in and the tater soup has been made. Ready to strike the match.
Nice post Kathryn, well done!
Spending the weekend in Smyth County visiting family. It has been COLD today! Not sure it got over 58 at all today where we are.
I was doing some archaeology today in Charles Co., VA and about 3-ish, suddenly it got very cloudy and then very humid. As I drove west later this evening, it was clear and when I finally arrived in Hokieburg, it was cold unloading the car! I am amazed at the difference between us and the eastern part of the state. Their plants are still in full bloom. We were invited to cut basil from the plantation herb garden – they were like bushes there! We haven’t really had a frost here but all my annuals are looking puny now.
Alrite KP. Time to roll. Feet on floor, wood in stove, cuppa mud, meat in skillet, then ready for a brand new day. Kevin said he won’t payin you to lollygag around.
Good Sunday morning to everyone – it is a chilly 43 and rainy up here at Dual Polarization Ridge. We have had “0.22″ inches of rain overnight and it is still raining.
It’s a cool 47 degrees in New River. 0.26″ of rain so far, but it looks like barring new development, we’re not seeing more rain today…the activity on Radar is well east of here now.
Tina I understand not liking these cold wet days. Tomorrow should be a bit of an improvement (still wet, but warmer) and then Wednesday we start to dry out and temperatures start to climb again.
Good Sunday to everyone! Again sorry for the delay in comment updates. Dual Pole Carol and John thank you for the rainfall totals. I think many of us can agree that we didn’t get quite as much rain as originally forecasted.
That brings me to Doug’s suggestion at posting updated precipitation forecasts from the HPC. Here’s one valid for this morning through tomorrow morning: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif Thank you for the idea Doug I will try to be better at posting updates!
HokieTrax great observation about how different weather conditions can vary from place to place. A lot of it can be elevation dependent but also if a “wedge” sets up which I talk about in today’s blog installment which will be up shortly.
This is also a reminder that Blacksburg’s radar is down for the Dual Polarization upgrade, but by looking at radars further east you can see the heavy rain has exited our area for today.
Johnny…glad you got a kick out of that..
Fainting Goats is about the best way to describe
that collapse.
Yall have a good if crisp afternoon.
And save me some fall apples.
Hokie Trax, I got introduced to the vast differences on my first campus tour. Virginia Beach was in the 70′s, and South Boston (Halifax County) was about the same. Both had sunny conditions.
Blacksburg? Cloudy, breezy, and chilly in the 40′s…and I was in shorts! I’ve loved the oddball weather ever since.
Thanks for the rainfall update, KP. As I feared, the actuals did not live up to the Friday model run. I will see my first rain since about Wed. (we drove through a pretty good squall south of McComb, MS, headed to Hammond, LA) this morning between here and Chattanooga, at least.
Prediction: the wedge will depart Blacksburg before it does ROA, whenever that happens in each city. Not always true, but definitely by a big majority of the time.
Oops!
Somebody forgot to post his weekly quiz & didn’t work on his lesson this week. Have a good excuse. I was in Baltimore Sunday for the Yankees/Orioles game in the rain. Thanks to Lawyer buddy for inviting me to the game. Cold but damp. Fun. Back home now… working on Lesson 3.
Out later today…quags