A once-in-a-lifetime storm setup; but will it mean a once-in-a-lifetime October snow dump for us?
BRIEF NOTE ON TODAY’S WEATHER: Easterly to northeasterly winds have banked some cloudiness and moisture against the mountains on this Friday. So we have a cooler day ahead than recent days, with some fog and drizzle, especially this morning. END UPDATE
The name Hurricane Sandy makes me think of a dear friend, Sandy LaCorte (pictured here), now working at the National Weather Service in Wilmington, N.C. Sandy, a proud North Carolina-Asheville graduate, monitored the radar in my van and built up team morale during the 2007 and 2008 Virginia Tech storm chase trips (yes, she was Kathryn Prociv‘s predecessor) , in which we saw a combined 12-15 tornadoes. Now she has what is turning into an infamous storm named after her — and likely never again, as the storm will almost certainly have its name retired. A shout-out to Sandy, closely monitoring the storm that bears her name as it whips up waves on Wilmington’s coastline in the next few days. I wrote about her in this 2008 column linked here.
I’ll start with my 7 key points about Sandy/Frankenstorm/Snoreastercane, or whatever you want to call it, for Southwest Virginia:
(1) Confidence is HIGH that there will be major to historic East Coast storm system as Hurricane Sandy is absorbed into a polar trough dipping southward. Details on where exactly it tracks and what effects it produces on particular locations remains uncertain. Landfall between Virginia’s Eastern Shore and the eastern end of Long Island, N.Y. seems most likely.
(2) Southwest Virginia can expect windy weather from Sunday night through Tuesday, and possibly longer, next week. Wind gusts of more than 40 mph are likely; wind gusts of more than 60 mph may be possible during at least some of that time frame, depending on the storm’s track. The closer the center tracks to us, the more wind there will be.
(3) The threat of snow, possibly even heavy snow, has increased some for Southwest Virginia, as forecast models, particularly the European, are depicting a farther south track that could pivot the core of colder air and waves of moisture into the region Monday and Tuesday. As is typical, the best chances of significant snow will be in higher elevations and west of Roanoke, but the system is so dynamic, it is possible that snow will extend farther south and east and into lower elevations.
(4) The storm will heavily affect multiple Eastern U.S. states. Coastal flooding from high waves — exacerbated by a full moon — is possible from North Carolina to Maine. Unlike a hurricane with a tight inner core, high winds with a strong extratropical low will extend hundreds of miles from the storm center. There will be torrential rain, too — probably well to our north and east.
(5) Southwest Virginians should be prepared for possible power outages next week. Even 40 mph wind gusts may be enough to cause damage to trees, and blow limbs into power lines, due to remaining leaves on the trees and possible leftover weakened or loosened limbs from the June 29 derecho and other summer storms. Wind gusts of 60 mph and/or heavy wet snow would cause much more numerous and widespread power outages.
(6) The fall colors are absolutely gorgeous in spots. Enjoy them Friday and Saturday before they blow away.
(7) It might be a good idea to find the snow shovels and test the snow blower this weekend, just in case. You may not need them for another 2 months (or 4, if it’s like last winter), but then again ….
Let’s talk about this snow thing, since the wind is just about a given, rain is unlikely to be a huge factor here, and snow is by far the number one topic of interest on this blog. The European and DGEX models (sort of an extended North American Model) have led the way over the past 24 hours on suggesting snowfall — and maybe piles of it — may occur in Southwest Virginia on Monday and Tuesday. This is because these models track the low west-northwest over the Delmarva Peninsula toward southern Pennsylvania at just the right angle to allow it to swirl both Arctic air and thick moisure around its west and southwest sides into our region. This is NOT the usual way we get snow in our region, but of course, this is not a typical storm system, this is a once-in-a-lifetime atmospheric setup.
Some reasons to be skeptical of the bigger snowfall amounts posted. (1) Westerly winds over the mountains go downslope into much of our region, and this can dry out low-level moisture. (2) Most models presume a 10:1 liquid to snow ratio; the snow that would fall in this setup would almost certainly have denser water content, probably more of a 4:1 to 8:1 snow. (3) The ground is VERY warm, coming out of a summer and a week of 70s to low 80s this week. You know I’ve said before that warm ground is a very overrated factor in not expecting snow to stick, but this is a little different than even last Feb. 19 with a day in the 60s and a mild winter leading into a 5-9 inch snowfall. It will take very heavy snow and surface temperatures falling to very near freezing, if not below, to overcome a high melt rate — and even then, it would probably slowly melt from underneath, so total on the ground would be less than the total that falls. (4) Is the moisture and/or cold air really going to be as deep as modeled coming around the backside of the storm? (5) How much modifying warmth does injecting a tropical system into this storm system bring?
On that last point — the last run of the European model, the 12Z, actually takes the storm center into Northern Virginia. As a result, the warm core of the storm actually cuts off snow totals to the northeast — almost edging into our neck of the woods, and driving the heaviest core of snow west of Interstate 77. Because of how this storm is expected to wrap up, it may indeed occur that somewhere to the south has heavy snow while someone north has rain on Monday. Danville could have snow while Winchester has rain. Lynchburg might have snow while it’s raining up U.S. 29 at Charlottesville. Heck, it might snow at Raleigh while it’s raining in Pennsylvania. There is at least one precedent for this kind of topsy-turvy rain/snow division — the Appalachian Storm of 1950, which became so wrapped up over the Ohio Valley it was driving a cold front north through Pennsylvania while pushing a warm front southwest through Michigan. Southwest Virginia got 6-10 inches in that event, while eastern Kentucky, western West Virginia and southern Ohio had snow in feet. That storm, like this one, was a surface low pulled northwest from the coast into a polar trough. But it didn’t have a hurricane feeding into it.
Reason No. 6 to be skeptical: The storm track may just end up too far north for it to rotate much moisture into our region for snow. Reason No. 7: The storm track might even go too far south and cross through central Virginia, and more and more of our area from northeast to southwest would get a windy rainstorm.
All that said: I think we’re going to see our first snowflakes next week. Even if the storm tracks farther north, the circulation around it will probably be enough for some upslope snow showers to creep over the mountains, maybe even later in the week than the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. I do think this heavy snow angle is worth continuing to follow closely, because you know a system coming off the ocean with tropical moisture is going to have a lot it can fling at us, and if it’s cold enough, as many models show, there is a chance it could be a huge, paralyzing dump of slushy white for at least part, if not all, of our region.
So … as it stands now … big East Coast storm, just about certain. Windy for us: Yes. Snowflakes for us: probably. Big snow for us: maybe.
October 25, 2012 - 9:50 PM
RSS feed 
KM-as always fantastic new entry! The very credible Ray’s Weather Center (KM has it linked) is now calling for snow in the NC Mtns from Sunday night through Wednesday morning. He is usually very cautious about pulling the trigger on potential snow storms. I think it is more and more likely that we are in the bullseye (South of I-64 and West of I-81) will get 1-3′ of snow. This is remarkable.
Here’s a nice graphic from a New England weather blog by Matt Noyes showing the wind possibility if it were to make landfall around the NJ area.
http://www.mattnoyes.net/.a/6a00d83451c01c69e2017d3cfdd782970c-500wi
QUAGS!!!! I just checked out your Quagmire Weather Central website, and made the huge mistake of clicking on that video box on the right side. With the incredibly obnox young guy from Nova Scotia screeching like a banshee about a “big storm to hit New York City” on Tuesday. Almost lost my dinner …. seriously. Please don’t ever post another video like that one again …. The rest of your blog looked interesting. Now that you have my e-mail address GQ, (yes, you now have a letter carrier as a member) please send me an e-mail and tell me how I can make comments on your blog.
Ben G, that guy Matt Noyes appears to be from the NECN network in eastern New England. My sister Susie in Ipswich and her hubby Mal often watch that network!! From what I have seen of it, I like it, too.
I can’t quite grasp the fact that it may be snowing here in a few days. Thanks for the new blog post!
It should be noted that the 1991 Perfect Storm bottomed out at 972 millibars (28.70 inches of mercury). Most forecast models have been showing 933-960 millibars for this storm’s lowest pressure. So, yes, it could be an even more perfect storm!
http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2012/10/once-in-lifetime.html
Just did my own update, pretty in depth. Check it out if you’d like!
Kevin
A few days ago you gave this a 4 out of 10 chance of happening. What number would you assign it tonight, relative to affecting SW VA?
My 4 out of 10 was concern for the coastal superstorm happening at all … I would say that is now 10 of 10.
For SW Va, I am at 7 of 10, mostly for high winds. The snow risk continues to be a bit of a mystery.
Wow I was astounded to read the posts this evening. I had “heard” about this storm affecting the NE but had not really followed it (been spending too much time following the elections). This looks to be truly historic. Part of me is excited by that the other part is worried about the devastation it will cause. And it is really weird for my mind to accept the fact that the snow will be on the SOUTH side of the system.
While I do like snow, I shudder to think what crippling effect it would have so early in the season with leaves still on the trees for the most part.
Thanks for all your work Kevin! Looks like this is the place to be for the next several days.
For what it’s worth, I asked DT what his thoughts were for snow potential for ROA in his chat. He said his best guess right would be “a few inches on grassy areas”. I would tend to agree with something close to that.
That seems a reasonable possibility. But a few inches on grass would also be a few inches on tree limbs and whatever leaves haven’t blown/fallen off. That’s the bigger problem.
I think it might be difficult to get the temperature down to 32 for a prolonged period of time in the base of the Roanoke Valley. Would expect if there is considerable snow, some fairly wide variation in amounts between higher elevations and the valley floor.
The new National Hurricane Center forecast track linked below. Guess what? It’s farther south. This is just about the path that Euro showed on the 0Z run with the heavy snow amounts in western Virginia.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
Kevin, Zach, thanks for both or your blogs, it is nice to get local perspective, especially when you take the time to explain what you think will happen along with the other possibilities, and what could keep that from happening. Zach, you pointed out more than once you were not posting a forecast, rather an explanation and interpretation of the models. I think that goes a long way to separate hyping a storm from simply saying here is what is expected based on the models and data.
Also this observation from the NHC in the latest discussion:
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND…ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
The gradual transition from tropical to extratropcial may be beginning. But it’ll take a few days to complete, as it traverses warm water.
You know, the key feature for those of us who work outside may not be simply wind on Monday and Tuesday, but that dirty 9-letter, two word phrase: wind chill. Especially when it reached 80 here today and upper 70s throughout the NRV.
And thanks for posting the latest from the NHC, KM. From this point on, I for one would like to see as many links to storm track predictions as possible.
Well, to that end, here’s a whole cluster of tropical model projections for the center of Sandy:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif
0z GFS is now further north and east with Sandy. Shows a landfall on Long Island, NY. Very interested in seeing if the Euro will hold its ground.
http://prntscr.com/i7ujy
Run isn’t finished, but new GFS (0Z) is gonna be WAY north and east.
0Z GFS finally brings it into Long Island, and then it sorta meanders around NJ, NY area for a couple of days. Would be incredible damage along coastal areas up there. Not much effect here, other than a pretty windy Tuesday.
Long way to go on this one, folks.
Ive mentioned this storm here before…
I was in Harrisonburg in 1979 Oct 9-10
when this happened…lots of trees and limbs
down in the Clifton Forge area.
I had to drive through this trying to get back to work from Roanoke.
This sure seems like a similar setup…except the ’79 storm
was a low pressure that developed off the Carolinas.
http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/Octsnow_1979.pdf
The models move around a lot but a NJ landfall appears to be the most logical. This storm may be a game changer for our upcoming winter which may make the snow haters very happy. This storm has the potential to cause massive destruction and loss of life. For those of us who work outside next week could be a rude awakening with the wind and cold temperatures . Just waiting on what may be a wild ride
Kevin, as noted in a comment above, I too appreciate you discussions on your blog.
No hype, no drama, just friendly and informed discussion.
Thanks!
Whoa @ Euro. (AGAIN) Also, STILL raining in Cuba early this morning – waaaaay away from the center of Sandy now. While the center may dictate where a lot of the heaviest moisture sets up, the shear SIZE of this storm is coming into perspective. Look at a satellite pic or water vapor picture of it now and in your mind place it ANYWHERE in the northeast. We’ll be affected either way – especially with regards to wind!
0z Euro run is almost the exact same as the 12z run. It didn’t hardly move north or south. GFDL as well as the NOGAPS agree with the Euro.
Euro:
http://prntscr.com/i80bs
GFDL:
http://prntscr.com/i80ea
Did I hear snow?
I’ve been kind of out of it for the past few weeks. Dealing with a sick cat and life in general but I can hear the *S* word on Kevin’s blog from miles away!!
So…should we head to the grocery store and stock up today?
Well, here it is Friday morning, and we still don’t have much of a consensus. other than Sandy-Frankenwhatever ain’t goin’ out to sea, nor will miss New England to the east (except for that one blue line on your link to the graphs with the spaghetti lines of the various forecast tracks). TYVM, Kevin, for that link!! Which one was the blue line, do you know?
Kevin, you’re amazing. Not just anyone can have so much knowledge and understanding about the weather, yet also have the skills to write about it and explain the “whys” in such a first-class way. Your writing is clear, understandable and interesting. And humorous, too! Love your blog.
These are the times I’m glad I don’t own anything along the shore. (And the only time
)
Wherever it makes landfall, the storm surge is liable to be devastating considering all the meteorological factors and don’t forget about the nearly full moon adding higher than average tides to the equation.
Zach-comment #7-very nice job. Please continue to post links for us as you do updates over the next few days. Ray’s Weather this morning says there is a potential “historic for October” snowfall. I think he may be changing that to “historic for any month of the year” before it’s over.
Surprised that there is not a fog advisory this morning. We can’t see anything up here in Dopplerville.
Keep us posted on the projected path of Sandy – thanks Kevin for all you do!
Looking at the Euro this morning — the cold air rotating around the low is not quite as cold as it was in some previous runs, but just as extensive. Taken literally, I would say that would be wet snow mostly west of Roanoke and rain/snow mix the Roanoke Valley and points east. Snow showers would linger for a couple of days as the low drifts west. If that verifies, could be a burst of heavy wet snow east as far as U.S. 29 corridor (Lynchburg-Danville) after dark Monday.
HPC has raised its expected precipitation totals to 1+ inch areawide now. So if a lot of that is snow, there could be some big amounts, especially in higher elevations.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
This storm is huge. It can miss us by a wide margin and still ruin our day. There is going to be widespread damage somewhere. Someone alive, right now – who has a life – maybe has plans for Halloween – maybe right now is cuddling up to their child or to mommy and daddy, will die due to this storm. Death is part of life, but we need to remember at all times, that the objects of our fascination kill.
Now, that said, this is going to be very interesting from a historical perspective.
Speaking to David’s point: Hurricane Sandy has already killed at least 22 in the Caribbean:
http://tinyurl.com/d92ac52
An answer to the title/question of the previous article is Yes – most likely. The derecho will be hard to top for damage per unit of time duration. God help us if Sandy manages that for any length of time.
I knew it had killed there, but even here where we see ourselves as technologically more advanced and prepared, nature doesn’t discriminate. She will get you no matter what if you happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Wondering why this storm is getting so much attention? Its projected to be a Cat 1 , down from a Cat 2, before it hits, or possibly hits, the East coast.
Is it because there has been very little TS storm activtiy this year and everyone wants to report on this one, or is it truly unique in size, movement, etc.?
Kevin,
Would you say that Sandy is even more dangerous to the east coast in terms of life and property than she was in the Carribean? She is packing on the girth and she will also get married. It seems to me she will be packing a heavier punch here.
Added a brief note up top about today’s weather, which is wedgey.
Jswift….read the back story. The fact that she is a hurrican isn’t it. It is the fact there is likely to be an unholy union!!!!
Jswitt: It is not the tropical nature of the storm that is getting it the attention — though a Category 1-2 hurricane in late October making a landfall perpendicular to the coast north of Hatteras would be, in itself, very noteworthy. Almost all tropical systems parallel the coast in that region, historically, and a hurricane rarely hits north of Hatteras this late in the season.
The big deal with this is that a polar trough is going to fuse with the hurricane energy and create a massive, intense hybrid storm — similar to the famous Perfect Storm in 1991, except, according to most forecast models, MORE intense (and occurring over heavily populated areas, not in the open sea). The winds will weaken near the immediate center but fan out much wider when this occurs. Occurring at high tide, a wide coastal area will experience ocean surge, and tropical storm to weak hurricane-force winds will fan out over hundreds of miles, not just a narrow corridor near an eye. And, as we discuss here, there will likely be snow to the west and southwest of the storm, especially in higher elevations. Tropical systems are very, very rarely connected to significant snowfall.
Technically, Sandy will probably not even be a hurricane when it makes landfall, but an immense, powerful extratropical storm.
David: The potential damage area will certainly be much wider in the Eastern U.S. — and of course, highly populated and developed in many areas Sandy/hybrid storm affects. There will be more people in harm’s way, including people far, far from the storm’s center. I would generally say yes.
The damage toll in the end may rival some of the big hurricanes in history, just because such a large area will be affected.
Kevin what do you think it will look like here in harrisonburg? Those summer storms caused a lot of damages and there are still hanging tree limbs.
Yep, that was the idea I was getting.(Thanks to you having such a splendid forum) I have already convinced my family to be vigilant. My mother did not have any clue that any possibility of this was on the way. I think my father picked up a gennie last night. He loses power so often where he is. After the derecho, he was almost a week getting it back.
To the point about attention on the storm: Granted, affecting the New York-D.C. corridor as it’s likely to is ramping up its media attention. As projected, the storm will be similar to a northern Pacific cold-core cyclone that sometimes blast the Seattle-Portland area, and don’t quite get this kind of build-up.
We’re paying attention to it because of the effects it will have in Southwest Virginia — though even if it weren’t, it would probably still be the top weather conversation piece right now on this blog.
Britten: Harrisonburg will probably be even a little windier and rainier than us, being closer to the storm center. Windy in this case likely means 20-30 mph sustained winds with 40-50 mph gusts, maybe 60 mph at times, over a day or two. Some of those hanging limbs will come down.
I wouldn’t rule out some snowflakes swirling into Harrisonburg on the back side of the storm, depending on its track — more likely for you if it swings a little north.
One thing not always grasped about coastal storms and hurricanes is that inland deciduous trees are much more susceptible to wind damage than the palms and cypresses in tropical areas, and also that most of them are naturally braced against the much more common westerly winds, not easterly winds that occur with these kind of storms moving inland.
We’ll catch a break here on that aspect because our winds will be circulating out of a more westerly to northwesterly direction. North of the landfall, though, the easterly fetch of wind will enhance tree damage and therefore power outages as limbs and trees fall on lines.
Will the models converge or will they ‘argue’ right on until landfall?
I’ve seen them do each in different situations, David. Generally, there is some convergence already, as the landfall is narrowing to Long Island to Delmarva corridor. I think they will move closer together.
NHC now shows Sandy making landfall near Delaware Bay as a hurricane and going extratropical just inland.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents
It will be a matter of semantics whether Sandy is a hurricane or extatropical at that point. She will already be a hybrid storm of some sort. Folks who are getting 75+ mph winds won’t care.
It looked to me as if half of the models want to put it south, the other half further north. So far, the Euro has been more accurate, will that continue, or does the NAM get more accurate closer in time-wise and the Euro less?
Hey Kevin,here in Galax you wouldn’t expect winds as high as Hugo in 1989 would you? I know our elevation is higher (approx 2800 feet) and this storm is coming from a different direction,but I watched a lot of trees come down during that storm and would hate to see a repeat of that!! Some snow showers on the backside I could expect…
KM: sounds more and more like DC is too far NORTH (??) for snow. Is there still a scenario that could bring heavy snow to the immediate DC area. Thanks.
Clark: Hugo’s center passed just west of I-77 corridor — the Charleston-to-Charleston track (S.C. to W.Va., that is). I don’t think it will be as strong as that, nor will the direction of wind (south and southeast at times) be as conducive for widespread wind damage. Still could be some 60ish gusts at times.
I’m in DC: Will be hard to get snow into DC because of ocean warmth carried inland. If it hit near NYC and moved westward, you might get some snow showers on back side.
Quagmire’s man is a savant. He is condensing what the TV newsmen really sound like on an emotional level. His performance is spot on. I’d prefer a confident 50′s scientist taking a drag on his pipe before intoning “Timmy, we’ll need to keep our weather eye on this situation and prepare ourselves for the type of weather we’re liable to get this time of year on the eastern seaboard.”
One question remains: Why do our “serious weather professionals” continue to avoid a clear forecast for Monday? Everyone else seems able to read the data. The current NWS five day forecast gives little hint of any significant weather.
Lexingtonian..
I think because there are still so many different scenarios
just look at how far out some spaghetti models take it.
Serious weather professionals stay away from definite
pronouncements when there ae a lot of different ingredients.
Time of year..broad advancing cold front and a broad tropical system.
Another day will help a lot I think for the Mid Atlantic forecasters.
..Yes many can read the data..but thats data that exists at that time.
If these systems stall..and it appears it may NNW of Va this could mean copious amounts of rain east of the mountains…and snows west.
Kevin, I don’t make it on the board as much, but I’ve been trying to follow you and Jamey on twitter and respond some. I’ve convinced the hubby we need to get a generator since he is supposed to be in Harrisonburg all next week working and won’t be home to assist when all this craziness hits. I peronally am hoping for snow LOL
For you folks who like to watch the “raw” weather
with real eyeballs..
On satellite I see the outer fringes of both systems
now approaching SWVA…in fact it might be good to start looking skyward.
The very outer fringe of Sandys moisture shield at high altitudes
is bringing wispy high clouds into the area from the southeast
..at the same time the advancing cold front is pushing in high clouds from the west..
It might make for some interesting cloud watching as these competing
systems move their upper air signature together over western Va.
Go look!!!
Lexingtonian, Look at the previous blog entry comments. I asked that very same question. It has to do with what they are allowed to reported via the NWS….if I am getting it right
At 11:25 a.m. Friday, this is the official forecast for my area, copied and pasted:
Monday Cloudy, with a high near 46.
Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.
Based on last night’s GFS, that forecast would be right, Lexingtonian. It doesn’t even have our wind picking up much til Tuesday.
My company is taking the impending storm seriously. With offices in Hampton Roads, Richmond, DC area, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Wilmington Deleware…they’re advising employees of computer safety procedures, and will likely employ additional measures in several flood-prone areas, since our office in Baltimore experienced flooding not long ago (it’s in the Fell’s Point part of downtown).
From what I can tell looking at a few frames on mys smartphone, the new GFS (12Z) still favors a more northern track to near NYC. Would be pretty windy here Tuesday on that track, but not a lot of precip. Maybe some upslope snow showers blowing over mountains. Would be plenty cold.
Euro was still holding to more southern track with more snow chance here. New run later this afternoon.
Ahhh – we can see! The fog has finally burnt off and there is bright sun and some clouds up on Doppler Ridge. Back to bringing in wood and getting prepared.
Euro vs. GFS Round 100… Begin!
New GFS still north. Not big snow but still wind.
Every meteorologist out there seems to be going by the GFS. Why would that be???
I don’t know why I even bother to look at the weather forecast anywhere else. KM rocks!
Weather Underground has Salem with a 40% chance of showers on Sunday. No other effects at all other than overgast skies. 0% precip Monday on. Maybe they are using the NAM which has Sandy going way up north and never turning in at all.
We’ve got some leftover firewood from the 2010 winter, when we bought a lot and used it for that winter and last year. We’ve got enough for a few days, but lacking a truck now…I’ve lapsed in getting a load delivered in a timely fashion. I’ll bring in what we have to keep it dry though…among other stuff I’ll be doing this evening and over the weekend. I’m contemplating not doing anything with all the leaves in the yard, because the winds will mose certainly bring more anyway, and probably clear out a lot that have already dropped under the maple.
WDBJ7 had not at least put up a graphic on it’s 7 day planner – ‘Sandy with major impacts.’ I am glad they are finally acknowledging the uncertainty and possibility for mayhem. Hey is Sandy working for Allstate???
Sorry, my typing is going south like Sandy’s track. WDBJ7 has at least…..
Will the storm affect Detroit? Would like to see a couple of weather delays to the World Series so Justin Verlander gets a few more days rest.
Barry…there’s a chance of rain/snow up there Monday and Tuesday…probably not a big chance of a weather impact. The Tigers need their bats to awaken. Losing Game 1 wasn’t a huge problem, but losing in a 2-hit shutout last night is. 79% of teams that take a 2-0 lead win their series. Tigers still have a shot, but it’s increasingly slim now. Winning 4 of 5 from the Giants is a tall order…and they keep getting insane production from people who had spotty, inconsistent, or subpar regular seasons. Hot at the right time…they have the mojo working.
Aside from the techie talk, this seems somewhat like a Nor’easter …what say you, Kevin
I seem to have a very unfortunate name right now but all joking aside, the thing I’m most concerned about is the wind. There are still so many trees barely hanging on ready to fall leftover from the July derecho and many power poles and lines are temporarily patched and not fully repaired, at least in the county where I live which was one of the hardest hit. It’s not going to take much to bring these down with widespread power outages again. We had no power for 6 days. And of course, here’s another good excuse to raise gas prices again.
Here’s the first hint of snow in our area from the HPC. This map is gonna change a lot in the next 4 hours.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
Typos continue…………I meant 48 hours.
Sandy in 3….Tigers in 7
Thanks, Kevin for the good heads up. If I’d only looked at the websites for Wunderground & TWC I’d have no idea what might be on the way. Lots of prep to do outside, get stuff put away in the shed and garage, straw in the feral cat house, etc. Got the Kindle on the charger so if I’m without power for awhile I can still enjoy reading in the evening.
12z Euro underway, here we go folks.
Oddly, the hazardous wx outlook will mention wind events before the
forecast page does. Same office?
Hey Rigel – good idea on the Kindle. I need to find my oil lamps so I can read. Got my feral cat house ready but now working on crates for inside for the dogs.
The Calm Before the Storm – - – -
So what’s your take on this Euro run Kevin? It’s seems a bit more north than previous outings over the last few days. Say if south/central New Jersey is indeed the landing spot for the Sandy hybrid, what would the implications be for our area? Is it possible to see something along the lines of 30mph winds, 45 mph gusts and *maybe* a couple inches of snow on the grassy surfaces come monday afternoon?
Friday 12Z Euro SHIFTS NORTH FOR NJ LANDFALL THEN SLIDES BACK INTO MARYLAND AND STALLLS…
I don’t understand a couple of the comments. How is it possible that one storm can affect the weather for the rest of the fall or winter. More or less snow, warmer or cooler?
12z Euro is further north this run making landfall around C NJ. Still say we get some good winds out of this.
DC,why the crates for the dogs? You got a bed.
Sandy swings a little east at hour 72 as it is due east of Norfolk by 200 miles then turns NW for a landfall close to Cape May NJ/Delaware Bay area than turns west to stall bewteen Baltimore & Wilmington DE.
This is good news for the Tidewater & eastern VA, but this shifts the snows further north. How far yet, don’t know.
Another curiosity about this pending storm: This is the first graphic of assorted model tracks I’ve seen that shows most of them looping back on themselves. It suggests that some areas will get hit twice.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=18&av=4
I think this system may be so far out of any frame of reference that the models may be having difficulty. I am so outside my knowledge base I can only do this ???????????????
Michael…
One storm does not change the season. It is still way too early to see what will happen this winter & I don’t think Franken-Sandy will change what happens this winter. Besides, it has happened yet.
Michael..
It can affect the weather..but
in my opinion a bit subtly…
The incfrease in ground moisture
is a big factor here in Texas.
We like it here when its wet all winter and well into
the spring. That way the soil absorbs much of the energy
from the sun longer into the summer. If it stays wet there a while itll give you a few
more mornings of ground fog..and maybe affect daily highs a bit
if clouds stick around longer than normal.
But I dont see it as changing long range patterns at all.
Just my general observations over a few years.
12Z Euro is not a huge shift for our region. Still turns very windy late Monday into Tuesday. Still has good amount of snow west of I-77/I-81 corridor, especially at higher elevations. Spreads some snow for a short time as far east as the U.S. 29 corridor (Lynchburg/Danville). It is shifted a little north on the landfall from previous Euro runs. That does allow more snow into mountains of northwest Virginia. Interesting that last night’s GFS and this Euro run do a little southwest shift inland with the storm after landfall. That would keep some cold breezes and maybe snow/rain showers circulating through a day or two later.
Walter: The final product after the merger between the hurricane and the polar trough will very much resemble a large, strong nor’easter — except that nor’easters usually don’t take NW turns inland. This storm, if it develops close to its modeling, is just a little bit different species.
About this storm changing the long-term weather pattern — one thing a large storm like this can do is churn up ocean water, turning warm patches into cold patches. This can have significant effect on air patterns and storm development. In this case, it appears the warm water near the coast will be most affected. Since Sandy will not be taking off northeast toward Greenland like many nor’easters, it may not significantly impact water temperatures farther north. So it may not have big effects on potential North Atlantic blocking highs later in the winter season.
Lexingtonian: Hazardous weather outlooks and local forecasts come from the same office. They are somewhat different in purpose though. The HWOs outline more possibilities of things that could occur, so local officials and emergency managers have advance notice. The local foreasts are more deterministic, a best guess at what actually will happen, and intentionally conservative in the mid to long range. NWS only slowly edges toward “events,” never suddenly shifts forecasts.
Game on for snow: Winter storm watch for Snowshoe Mountain and nearby areas of W.Va. issued Monday and Tuesday. Unusual lead time on such an event. NWS is sure of this. They should be. That area stands to get clocked under almost any scenario, just because the winds are going to be blowing out of the NW for 3-4 days, if nothing else.
http://bit.ly/R7sT6m
KM-would you mind to post a link to this afternoon’s DGEX? Would like to see if we are still under those beautiful 2 foot+ purple hues. Seems the EURO run taking it across S Jersey is still a big hit for snow especially west of I-81 and S of I-64.
Kevin do you agree with Brent Watts….http://www.wdbj7.com/news/wdbj7-weather-forecast-discussion-315,0,1846826.photo
BBUrg Mike, try this. Looks like no.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/
Mike: DGEX keeps all the signifcant snowfall in West Virginia and west of I-77 in Virginia.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/10/dgexsnowfall1026.gif
DGEX isn’t a widely loved weather model in meteorological circles. I mainly posted it today to show one extreme. It has wisely backed off its Virginias/Carolinas megasnowstorm.
It would have been one to remember though!!!!
Here are my general thoughts on snow in our area Mon-Tues.
* Elevations above 3,000 feet west of Roanoke and west of I-77 corridor: Likely to get white, possibly several inches, maybe 1 foot plus if storm’s track is favorable (DC-Philly area, generally) and moisture flow is sufficient behind storm.
* Roanoke Valley to Southside and eastward: Rain/snow mix by late Monday night, early Tuesday. Spotty accumulations on grassy areas. Perhaps one or two bursts of heavier snow extending east as far as U.S. 29 (Lynchburg-Danville).
* In between those — NRV, Blue Ridge areas 1,200-3,000 feet — is on the bubble and could go either way. Leaning toward heavier snow staying in WVa and west of I-77, heavily upslope-ehanced/elevation event.
So, Lee, my early thoughts are pretty similar to the map you posted from Brent Watts. Right now I think the track may be a bit north of optimal for SW Virginia widespread snowfall, and the cold air may be a bit shallow to support it. Very fluid situation, though.
Here is a bit of research from Woods Hole about
the Gulf Stream and some surprising info on significant
warm areas close to the NE coast…
http://www.whoi.edu/main/news-releases?tid=3622&cid=152829
Interesting note on the latest GFS…for Nov 11 shows another tropical storm forming in the same spot as Sandy (below Jamaica) and starting to track northward towards eastern Cuba… a pattern perhaps??
NWS is now calling for breezy with rain/snow showers from Sunday night through Wednesday. Here we go. My prayers go out to those east of us with power outages, wind damage and flooding.
Here is an interesting sat view of two systems approaching each other.
http://wx.hamweather.com/maps/sats/clir/latest/va.html
The HPC just upped their confidence in snow for SW VA.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
Right now, just about all the thoughts on snow are pretty similar. HPC slight risk (as Rick posted) extends to Roanoke but discussion suggests it will elevation-dependent.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd
HPC map runs through Monday evening. Best shot of snow in our neck of the woods will be overnight Monday and early Tuesday. This time of year, the midnight-8 a.m. window is often critical for snow reaching lower elevations in marginal situations. Too much sun angle, too much surface warmth by mid afternoon.
http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2012/10/theres-reason-this-has-never-happened.html
My latest thoughts.
Don’t look like a picnic for the OBX either.
http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtbltn.pl?file=forecasts/marine/coastal/am/amz154.txt
zach, it couldn’t have been made any clearer. Right or wrong, thanks for putting it up front. It even made sense to me. Highly unusual.
Your comment 98 answers my question, and matches my observations. I’m not convinced it’s the right plan under all circumstances.
I am making my way through the 114 (probably more than that by the time I hit the “Post Comment” space) comments now on this thread, and decided to reply first to joe at comment 59. Yes, both late last night and especially about 6 AM when I went dog-walking, it was the first time in about a week that I couldn’t see any stars at those hours. Muted sunlight finally showed up in ROA city about 1:30, and brought the temp up to a high of about 70 here. Another warmer than normal day here today, and one more tomorrow primarily because of another dawntime low in the mid-50s. Through yesterday ROA was almost up to normal for OCT, just a -0.4.
David in Salem, in reply to your 12:15 comment, there is one group of meteorologists out there (admittedly not with any television station nor TV network) who have adopted the EURO forecast track completely ….. the National Hurricane Center. It has been showing a landfall at the mouth of the Delaware River for 24 hours now. If someone else already posted this info, i apologize.
By the way, David, I think you are relatively new here (or did you simply use “David” as your identifier?). Welcome aboard!!
Maybe it’s just me, but I think TWC (now owned by NBC) is getting a bit carried away with the power outage graphic. I could understand a CAT 4 or 5 come barreling into the coast and showing that graphic. Incidently, Accuweather is showing a more northern track now. That will lessen the effects for us at least for the time being. Until tomorrow, anyway.
I think we’ll get sproadic power outages with 40-50 mph gusts based on (1) the likelihood of sustained 20-30 mph winds and occasional gusts lasting 24-48 hours, or more; (2) the remaining leafiness of trees, especially in lower elevations and (3) leftover hanging/broken limbs, weakened trees, from derecho and other summer storms. It’s just inevitable that winds blowing that long even that hard will crash a few limbs and trees into power lines. It usually happens some with a strong Arctic cold front in winter, and there are no leaves then.
I think we’ll get widespread power outages if we get 60 mph gusts. That probably only happens with a D.C.-area or farther south passage of the low center. But because of the pressure differential between the low and high pressure to the west, we’re bound to get pretty strong winds even if the low comes ashore in the NYC area. Will be plenty breezy here if it comes in at Boston.
Winds could increase if there is some kind of lower level speed max that rotates around the cyclone that comes over the mountains, and either crashes to the surface bumping into the ridgelines, or mixes to the surface if there is even modest daytime heating. That’s a small-scale feature that probably wouldn’t be picked up until 24-48 hours or less. Think Feb. 10, 2008. Maybe not to that degree, but that wind storm wasn’t clear on the models until within 36 hours of the event, and it still overperformed forecasts.
Good link wd..OBX pounded for 4 days. that’s going to wash away a LOT of beach…
Wow, if that 5.74 bullseye in West Virginia is all snow …
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/qpf/tcqpf.php?sname=Sandy
Kevin, when the possibility of deep snow is mentioned, is the ground temperature and the fact that we are coming off of a week of upper 70′s factored in? We haven’t even had a hard freeze in Pulaski Co. yet.
The snow last February eventually won out, but only after a couple of hours of intense snow. And that was in winter. Even then it only lasted for about one day.
Given the circumstances and current warmth could we actually get a foot of snow?
docvet, it’s also going to wash away more homes built on the edge of an enviroment that some fool with more money than sense built. It’s also might tear up Rt. 12 again, and probably cut another inlet. The sad part is our tax dollars will have to fix/replace it all.
A foot of snow could fall if the intensity of snow overcomes the melt rate on the ground, a slushy layer develops, and snow stacks on that slushy layer. With the recent warmth and, even more importantly, more than 7 months since the last sub-freezing temperatures, the melt rate will be very high. It would probably have to snow at least 20 inches worth to get a foot, when factoring in warm ground, high water content in the snow (4:1 to 8:1 snow to liquid ratios, vs. the standard 10:1), compaction of the heavy wet snow, and continued melting underneath. An exposed high-altitude ridge area like those in West Virginia may get cold enough to overcome a lot of those factors and get deeper snow.
I think a foot is very unlikely below 3,000 feet elevation unless the absolute motherlode of moisture is unleashed into cold temperatures — not entirely impossible with a tropical-inspired system, but it will require just the right timing and track of the storm and its associated parts.
Thanks for your help,Kevin. I think that when totals are thrown out by the media, folks freak out because they assume it to be literal. As always, a gentleman and a scholar.
Another cloudy day here again,high was a little cooler at 67,low was a warm 59.Kevin who do you think will get more snow Monterey in Highland county or Ingalls Field up on the Mountain top in Hot Springs?Have a great weekend all,Mike
Alfred, you perty much answered your own question. Everythings against it for all the rasons you stated. Possible, yes. Likely, no. And if it did, it shore wouldn’t hang around. Think power outages here/flooding concerns for the coast will be remembered longer than how much snow Snowshoe gets.
Would not surprise me if Jim Cantori
has an suv rented in WVA…
Wouldnt be at all surprised if he broadcasted
from Canaan Valley, Snowshoe…or towns in between.
If this retrogrades as far west as GFS is currently
projecting this could be an amazing event.
Kevin, wasn’t trying to answer a q posted to you, but your post hadn’t shown up yet. I do answer a few if I’m confident in what I’m saying. Might take some heat off you, but that’s still not the same as a personal response from you.
Don’t mind multiple answers. The comments are a discussion forum, not just for me to pontificate.
Joe, reckon Al will join him and bring a wind machine?
Excuse me Joe. That was a dumb post I jest made. With the snow guns, the resorts can create their own blizzard for the team to stand in while filming is going on.
The GFS puts 18″ of snow in Elkins, WV.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Alfred,
Love the Alfred E. Newman pix on your tag!
Had a long day flying today so I’m calling it a night.
Will try to update the website Sat. AM
Will have lots on there.
YYYYYYAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN….
Camping tonight near the James river. It was alittle rainy today in Norfolk where I was visiting the Battleship Wisconsin. Rained hard and then drizzly on and off. Precip % jumps in the morning so I’ll be up early to get the tent down. Right now balmy, breezy evening. Will be back in Hokieburg Sat night to await the Frankenstorm.