UPDATE 10:15 AM, 10/29: After Sandy’s left hook, winds will roar late Monday/Tuesday in SW Virginia; leaves, rain and some snow will fly
LATEST WARNINGS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE-BLACKSBURG LINKED HERE
UPDATE 10:15 AM: At left is a new satellite photo of Hurricane Sandy — still considered a hurricane, with 85 mph winds, though it is a hybrid storm with both tropical and extratropical elements. Sandy has begun to make her “left hook” and has started moving north-northwest. Expect a faster northwest movement for Sandy later today as she is caught in the jet stream trough and becomes more extratropical than tropical. That distinction will matter little to residents along the coastal areas from Cape Cod to Cape Hatteras getting battered by her waves, especially in the New York-New Jersey area likely to take the brunt. In fact, the growing extratropical nature of Sandy means her strong winds are just spreading out wider. For Southwest Virginia — expect this to just be like a breezy, January day in late October until Sandy gets closer to the coast, and the contrast between her intensely low (likely record-breaking for that region) central pressure and high pressure to our west grows. That’s when stronger winds will pick up — 20-40 sustained with 50-60 gusts still appears to be about right for this evening through early Tuesday. As for snow … areas that have already seen snow may see some off and on through the day, mostly light, and mostly not sticking, except maybe at the higher elevations generally above 2,500 feet or so. Whether there is more widespread significant snow to the east or lower elevations of current winter weather warnings and advisories clustered along the West Virginia border and west of I-77 depends a lot on how much moisture Sandy’s circulation can rotate in to our region over the mountains overnight and Tuesday. Most forecast models keep it pretty light, with the heavy stuff being squeezed out to the west. Still, do not be surprised to see perhaps some heavier bursts of snow and some white on grassy areas in the New River Valley and Blue Ridge areas tonight and early Tuesday, and wet snowflakes may even make it into the Roanoke Valley at times. END UPDATE
UPDATE 6:15 AM: Winter weather advisories have been added this morning for elevations above 2,500 feet in Bland, Giles and Craig counties, with 2-5 inches of snow projected along the higher ridges. A cold, increasingly windy day and night are ahead, with mostly light rain gradually become mixed with or changing to snow farther east and at somewhat lower elevations. Winds may gust as high as 60 mph by evening as well. Expect some sporadic power outages and scattered tree damage with those winds. END UPDATE
We can stop talking about Sandy in future tense now, in terms of U.S impact. Hurricane Sandy — a hybrid storm with a warm-core center, so still a hurricane — has already sent storm surge piling over the Outer Banks of North Carolina and into Virginia Beach, with 50 mph winds gusts reported already in parts of New Jersey and coastal storm surge all the way south to Florida and north to Long Island — even though it’s nearly 300 east-southeast of Cape Hatteras. It’s projected to move a little east of north for a short time , then get jerked suddenly northwest by the digging polar trough, making landfall early Tuesday on the coast of New Jersey as an extremely intense extratropical low-pressure system (not tropical, so not a hurricane — but folks getting hammered by it won’t care). Where exactly it lands and what it’s called are really meteorological semantics at this point … its impact will be felt over most of the Eastern U.S., as its storm-force wind field (39 mph+) is 1,000 miles wide. This is going to be large-scale disaster for a huge area, with many large metropolitan areas affected. Southwest Virginia is a tiny piece of a big mosaic, but we will have significant affects as well.
As Sandy moves inland and slowly moves westward into Pennyslvania, our winds will pick up in response to the pressure gradient between the extremely deep low pressure in the storm and high pressure to the west. Expect winds to gradually increase through the day Monday, reaching 20-40 mph sustained with gusts of 50- 60 mph at times by Monday evening and Tuesday. Winds of this speed and duration WILL result in some downed trees and scattered power outages across Southwest Virginia. Be prepared.
Snow has already begun in the highest elevations near the southwest tip of the state on this Sunday evening — not directly related to Sandy, but indicative of the cold air moving in — the polar trough that will eventually 
lift Sandy inland. Snow, and lots of it, will bury much of central and eastern West Virginia, especially at high elevations, where 1-2 feet or locally more will fall. Several inches may also occur above 3,000 feet west of Interstate 77 and northward along the ridges just east of the Virginia-West Virginia line, with some snow into lower elevations as well. (NWS-Blacksburg snowfall projection map on page linked here, scrolling down.) Farther east, the depth of cold air and availability of moisture swirling around the backside of the low will be marginal, as much of it will be squeezed out over West Virginia’s high terrain. Still, periods of rain and/or snow may occur Monday night and Tuesday in the New River Valley, along the Blue Ridge and even into the Roanoke Valley and points east, with a greater possibility of snow the higher up you are and farther west you are relative to Roanoke. It does not appear at this time there will be continuous enough heavy precipitation for widespread snow accumulation, as air temperatures near the surface will be marginal (likely a little above freezing in many locations) and ground temperatures are warm. But we’ll keep an eye our to see if more intense bands of precipitation that projected develop that could keep snow going for a longer period of time in any other areas.
The official rain area has been slowly lifted northward, and I don’t think heavy rain will be an important impact for our region, as the bulk of Sandy’s moisture streams well to our east and north. Some showers are already being pulled through tonight, related to the cold front moving in from the west and caught in Sandy’s broad rotation.
With a storm this intense and unprecedented, some surprises somewhere are just about inevitable. We’ll watch closely for any of those that might develop that would affect our region.
October 28, 2012 - 7:10 PM
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KM-I noticed Ray’s Weather has Giles County painted in the 5″-8″ of snow, and Blacksburg in the 2″-5″. NWS has no mention of accumulating snow. I tend to trust Ray (and you) quite a bit. Do you think Giles can pile up a 1/2 foot of snow out of this?
I think 3,000-plus elevations definitely can do that in Giles County. Fully expect Mountain Lake to have 5+ by Tuesday. Would be surprised if there was that much on the banks of the New River.
I would feel more confident about NRV areas at Blacksburg’s elevation getting measurable snow if I saw much indication there was going to be a more significant precipitation band wrapping around the low this far south. Most of it looks like the upslope stuff, and then there’s the issue of temperatures being very marginal. Best chance of significant snow for NRV will be if there is an enhanced band that wraps around the low late Monday night or early Tuesday when marginal surface temperatures can more easily pulled to freezing. Slim chance this could even happen at Roanoke. Just something to watch how it develops and where it tracks.
Kevin,
TWC has snow accumulation projections of 1-2 overnight Monday and 5-8 Tuesday with a high of 33 for Pulaski. This seems a little on the high side. Your thoughts?
Robert: 1-2 would not absolutely shock me for you, though I would lean against it from what I’m seeing now. 5-8 would be be shocking. Don’t see that much liquid equivalent (.5-.8 presuming a 10:1 ratio, when this would undoubtedly be a much wetter snow requiring even more moisture) getting in there on Tuesday whatever the temperatures do.
TWC often seems to overestimate upslope snow events for Roanoke in winter. They regularly have 1-2 inches and 80 percent snow chances in upslope-related events here and it almost never does more than flurries. There seems to be a lack of geographical fine-tuning in their forecasts, accounting for topography and elevation.
The NAM and GFS both continue to create a precip shadow/dry slot (should call it a “damp slot” as precip isn’t totally absent) Mon night-Tues from the West Virginia line and I-77 corridor east through the NRV, Roanoke area, Blue Ridge and into the Piedmont. This is a big hesitation with me expecting signficant snow to get much farther east than the high mountains just east of the WVa border (Salt Pond, Potts, etc.) before even considering the marginal temperaure structure.
Here’s an example Tuesday afternoon on the NAM.
http://tinyurl.com/8mwapmm
The NWS in Charleston, WV has now issued a Blizzard Warning for Dickenson and Buchanan Counties in Virginia and McDowell Co, WV and nortward. WE continiue under a Winter Storm Warning. Temperatures here at the Chapel have fallen to 38 degrees with a windy, chilly rain falling. Our forecast is for rain to change to snow by 5 am and then rain and snow off and on through Wednesday. Guess I will sleep in tomorrow and Tuesday in preparation for going back to work on Wednesday.
Highland County, Virginia, now has a blizzard warning.
One thing I am watching is whether the cold air advection — cold air pulled into the storm — is going to be greater than modeled. Rain seems to be changing to snow pretty fast in far SW Virginia tonight, maybe a little faster than projected. Cold air would be one piece, and moisture another if snow is to become more widespread than forecast.
This system is uncharted territory for everybody. No one has ever seen anything quite like it in our part of the world. There will be some surprises somewhere. So it just bears monitoring.
EVA, I noticed your comment this afternoon on the previous thread!! Great! How and where have you been? Just fabulous to hear from you again. She mentioned that she lives in Mendota (Poor Valley) Virginia. That is on the very western edge of Washington County, and she lives even further away from Blacksburg and Roanoke and the rest of us than Michael Hoback. She is practically in Scott County, which is truly in Far SW Virginia.
I have not read through the rest of the comments on the previous thread, but it sure sounds like you better be prepared for a possibly big snowfall, Eva.
Speaking of Highland County, I would be curious to hear your thoughts Kevin about what community or mountaintop in Virginia will get the most snow from this event. I am going to guess Highland County, above Monterey to the west. Only trouble with that guess is that those ridges have an east-facing slope, but the snow will be coming in from the NW or North. And also that I am the one making the guess, of course.
Then we will have the problem of learning afterward which community/mountain DID get the most. Hey, while I am on this topic, is Burke’s Garden likely to get a lot, too? Maybe the eastern side of that valley?
I suppose I should go with somewhere down toward Washington and Tazewell County, instead.
I understand the seriousness of the winds we are going to encounter, but I’m sorta surprised by VT’s closure (I hear VWCC is too)… What does it mean “in accordance with executive order”? Does it have something to do with the state of emergency?
Governor said close. They close.
I have got the World Series on in the background right now, and they just announced a couple of weather items. Wind chill right now in Tigertown is 37*, and if the Detroiters can finally win a game (Cabrera just hit a wind-aided Home run to give Tigers their first lead at any point in this series, 2-1) tonight, Joe Buck claimed that there could be wind gusts of 50 mph IN DETROIT at tomorrow night’s game!!
At least the New York Yankees did not make it ….. can you imagine the dilemma Major League Baseball would have if tonight’s and tomorrow night’s games were scheduled for NYC?!?!?
Virginia Tech is CLOSED on Monday – executive order of the governor.
Doug: Burkes Garden is 3100 feet at its floor. Definitely should see a good amount of snow. Probably already snowing there.
I would agree with your Highland County guess for where the most snow will fall.
Richlands at 32 degrees. Forecast low was 36.
Just rode home on my Motorola from north Botetourt. The temp is dropping like a stone, the wind made it an interesting ride.
Kevin- to your comment about The Weather Channel having difficulty with their geographic fine tuning in their forecasts. I just saw a map on TWC tonight that squarely had Giles County in the 1-2 foot band, and Motgomery County in the 6″-12″ band. There was even an arrow pointing right at the Giles County “nipple” that said “locally 2 feet plus+”. Maybe the fantasy DGEX from this past Thursday was on to something?
Motorcycle….dang auto correct
Already down to 49 at my house just south of Roanoke. NWS says my low will be 45. Seems to be on track for something lower than that.
Showers seem to be aiding in evaporational cooling.
My thoughts are that this storm is unprecedented in recorded weather history. I think we will get a surprise somewhere. It may be that moisture bands make it over the mountains and into this area.
Well, now VT says they’re open.
BBurg Mike: Right now TWC is all by itself on 6-24 inches for Montgomery/Giles county. Hats off if they’re right! If DGEX fantasy is right, Raleigh in in for a rude surprise tomorrow.
Ray’s 5-8 for Giles/2-3 for Montgomery seems within reason IF (1) cold air advection is a little better than most models show and, most importantly, (2) moisture flow over the mountains when cold air is maximized. I’m seeing lots of dry slots on the models in our area. Makes geographical sense, and structural sense with a strong low in the region forecasted. But maybe it’s wrong. We’ll see.
Fred’s at Beech Mtn, NC already down to 27 degrees tonight. Much colder than Ray had forecasted for this point in the evening. Who knows?
If the Governor is making executive orders to keep people “safe” (DMV is also closed) shouldn’t public schools be closed? winds might pick up a kindergartener. But seriously what’s the rationale behind closing a college (VWCC) and not an elementary school that has children waiting at bus stops or walking vs. young adults driving to a campus.
Crazy! The euphoria of classes being cancelled just got blown up! Apparently the governor’s executive orders did not mean to include colleges and universities which makes one wonder if Old Dominion is open on Monday?
I have alot of students who are not happy campers just now.
Hot Springs flirting with mid 30-s..
Theyll be white in the AM..
also 3 or 4c in lots of WVa and SWVA..
Itll be very interesting to see how much
evaporative cooling ..and just how white
and where the boundries are…tomorrow will
be quite an event.
Definately new territory…Oct 79 was a bit like this
(10 inches in Harrisonburg) but their wasnt a tropical storm
involved ..and the gradient not nearly so tight.
Save the Roanoke Times clippings for the kids and grandkids.
David, your comments 17 and 19 made me laugh out loud!! They were great! Thanks. With all kinds of corporations making all kinds of products now that they never used to make, I was wondering if Motorola had entered the motorcycle field (I guessed correctly that it was not a car nor a truck, otherwise I would have seen a TV commercial for it).
Meanwhile, a bit of nowcasting. It has been raining here for over an hour, even though I have not stepped outside to give the ancient pooch one last walk. The reason I know that is that I can hear the downspout outside the window in this room making noises. …… Either that or a bunch of squirrels have conspired to unravel our hose and run it up to the gutter above it ….
Kevin, I know you don’t give travel advice and that’s not what I’m looking for but I am suppose to head to Bedford tomorrow. At what time with the conditions be deteriorating east of here from Bedford to Lynchburg? I’m trying to decide if I should head out and back earlier.
Earlier is better everywhere tomorrow. Winds picking up through the day, and really starting to pick up once Sandy moves to the coast and then inland.
Todd, only thing I can think of for Virg. Western is that a lot of their classes are at night, so they decided to call the whole day off?? I wouldn’t be surprised if local schools (Salem-Vinton-Roanoke-Roanoke County) decided to go for early dismissal tomorrow, say two hours early. Sounds like winds and weather in general will not be an issue in the early morning around here, but will/might become one by midday. Or who knows, Roanoke County and City need to get a big number of school closures this school year for future reasons, maybe they will cancel classes all day??
Todd, I think it is odd, I currently attend VWCC and I’m quite surprised that we’re closed to be honest. But you’re quite correct, small children are perhaps in far greater danger in the face of high wind speeds than full grown adults. Seems very strange.
Several icing reports from flights over WVA..
Beckley 6000ft light rime ice at aprox 6pm local
Parkersburg 4500ft to 5000ft mixed ice ..same time.
Charlottesville no turbc 10000ft down to 2000ft…trace of ice at
10000ft.
David, I agree completely with your 9:48 comment, that somewhere (I assume that you mean in SW Virginia) someone will get a big surprise. It could be in terms of more snow for some areas than official NWS forecasts ….. or it could be in terms of a lot less moisture in general for the area as a whole. And/or something else. We will just have to wait and see.
Because of a very warm week just ended, both Blacksburg and Roanoke are now warmer than normal for the month to date through Saturday, with Blacksburg at +0.7 and ROA at +0.5. Today’s high and low will not have a major effect on those nums, but the next three days sure will. Elevator went up, paused today to unload folks, and now it is headed down …. quickly.
Looks like Sandy is starting the left hook. Will know for sure on the 100:00 Advisory.
Kevin…I was noticing the CAA is coming in quicker too. I would not be surprised to see Winter Storm Warnings come east a little into the NRV/Dopplerville & dare I say it to the Blue Ridge & the Valley above 2000′ just a hunch.
Lexingtonian just posted something on the last thread that I’m going to repost here:
>Hurricane center has issued a statement concerning the switch from
tropical to post tropical. Sandy is going to make the switch at a bad
time for public information flow.
> Because the National Hurricane Center only issues advisories on
> tropical cyclones, there will be changes in the flow of
> information coming out of the NWS when this transition occurs.
>http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_pa_sandyTransition.pdf
>Good idea to get this statement out right now, before fingers are pointed.
My comment on it: This is part of why NHC elected not to issue hurricane warnings farther up the coast, but because the handoff seems kinda clumsy, I’m sure this is something that will be reviewed in the future for any other tropical-to-nontropical weather situations that may occur.
My temp has fallen from 49 to 47 just in the 45 minutes since I last commented on it.
Doug, you are right about the county and city needing 10+ “snow days”/closures this year so they can start the ’13-’14 school year before labor day next year. This is definitely a once in a life time weather event. If your an administrator reading the blog, make the call, “pull the switch”, early dismissals are a nightmare – parents have to leave work, some kids are locked out of houses or brought back to schools or bus garages.
My sister just called to report big snow flakes in Marion. I noticed that radar returns are still showing heavier precip there which may explain the snow. Just light rain here but when it was falling heavier earlier it appeared to have some wet snow mixed in here in the Chapel. Temps still at 37 degrees.
Snowing already in beckley WV
Kris…
NWS had fcst mix rain /snow around daybreak..
they are off 6 or 8 hours!!
39 in Woodlawn,after a breezy high of 56 today…rapid decrease in temps since 6 pm…
It has been snowing in Marion and Sugar Grove for a while with temperatures around 34-35.
Bluefield reported a special obs at 0244z…
2 1/2 vis light snow/mist
Hot Springs Mountain just went to
1/4 mi vis and changed over to light snow.
It says it’s snowing in Wytheville, but with the Dew Point at 35 I don’t think that’s possible to be snow.
For chuckles I looked at what the GFS outlooks looked like for the AO and NAO. The AO starts a big retreat in a few days, possibly all the way to a couple of days slightly positive on the 10-day only, although the 14-day shows the AO still in slightly negative territory.
The NAO? Possibly great news for you snow and cold lovers. It will start a slight retreat also by about Friday or so, but will remain substantially negative on all three outlooks. Could this be the start of another 2009-10 winter, in which the NAO was negative nearly the entire time? Or could it be one last (or one of the last) upside-down ice cream cone deeply into negative territory before it either switches to mostly neutral or even positive country? Anyway, based on the NAO, it sure looks like the first ten-12 days of November will do the same thing that early October did …… be cooler than normal.
Oh. I have 3/10ths of rain in the gauge so far.
Ken in Marion, welcome aboard!! Earlier this week I mentioned that it would be great if we got someone from Smyth County to comment here once in a while, to fill in the gap between Michael Hoback in eastern Washington County and Rick in Wytheville and also clarkdocvet just north of Galax. Thanks for commenting, and please let us know what is happening your way, not only for this mega-event but also in the future.
Doug! Can’t believe you remembered me. I read this often so you feel like my old pal! Yes…I am at the tip where Scott and Washington Counties meet, but since I am in a valley, I am not certain about the snowfall chances here. Btw, our post office remains open. Fewer hours which is fine long as it remains open, I now buy stamps as birthday gifts to help. It takes us all.
So the 11pm discussion says they had 102Kt winds at 700 mb? That seem to be really high. What exactly are they talking about? Also seems from watching the radar, the storm is taking a inside track, over the official NHC track.
700-millibar height is a little less than 2 miles up. The winds will always be stronger there than at the surface.
This important note from the latest NHC discussion:
SANDY HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS…
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/290248.shtml?
Eva, I remembered you from many months ago (or “Many moon come Choctaw” as my old Latin teacher would tease us after one of us gave a translation that sounded like gibberish) when you came to my rescue when one blogger (probably justifiably) complained about something I commented on. I ALWAYS remember when someone has something nice to say about me.
Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to make a lot more comments on this blog and tell us what is happening down your way.
And Kevin, your mission, should you choose to accept it after you GO HOME AND GET ANOTHER 6 HOURS OF SLEEP MINIMUM, is to please submit a comment or new big post with a link to the latest on Sandy’s expected path, not only through WED but through Friday.
“As usual, should any of your WB (Weather Blog) forces be caught or killed, the secretary will disavow all knowledge of your actions. Good luck, Kevin. This tape will self-destruct in 5 seconds.”
Temp drop from 45 to 43 in about half an hour in radford
Doug: I am home, have been home most of the day, and I will accept your challenge — though it may or may not be six CONSECUTIVE hours.
Here is the track map you requested;
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Guys the only way we get significant snow is
A) The arm of Sandy somehow survives and makes it down through our area. Not out of the question. This happen, we don’t see much snow but it would be fairly widespread and maybe a couple inches. Best places for this to happen would be north/East and HIGH up of Roanoke. But here will be the last places (CAA moving in from SW) to cool.
B) Much more likely is a couple of heavier snow squalls make it over the ridges and the NRV gets white.
Don’t bank on it guys. TWC does a terrible job of upslope events. The stuff flying tonight in the mountains will die out towards morning, and then pick up once Sandy’s moisture gets involved fully.
Good points, Zach. Generally agree.
850mb winds are very high. Question is if they are able to mix down to the surface for a short period of time. If they do, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a gust over 60mph. By doing the general reduction rule of 80% of 70 knot winds at 850mb, that would bring it to about 65mph. (70*.8 = 56)(56*1.15 = ~65) I’m not 100% sure if that rule can be used in this situation. Can anyone else confirm?
http://i46.tinypic.com/312u0wz.png
I know that is NWS’ concern, Ben, just what you described. The reduction rule — I know that’s about right, not sure exactly.
Kevin, I just want to say that was the most well written post on this storm for this area that I’ve seen yet. Thanks so much you answered all my questions!
39* at 5:40 AM. Ain’t been out to see if any ice is in it or not.
NWS is predicting a high temp of 43 today in Blacksburg. Current temp this morning is 37. Will the temp really warm up 6 degrees today? Seems it will hold steady or fall all day if anything. For what reason would we expect rising temps today?
If rain isn’t continuous it might wobble up a bit with Oct. sun angle, but 6 degrees is doubtful. Seen any snow yet, Mike? Some reports in your general area. Maybe a bit higher.
Hurricane Sandy central pressure of 946 millibars (27.94 inches of mercury) has tied 1938 New England Hurricane for lowest barometric pressure in coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras. Additional strengthening likely before landfall as extratropical or hybrid tropical/extratropical storm.
30.4 MPH gust at 6:24 AM.
No snow yet, Kevin. Anyone taking a road trip to Greenbrier/Pocahontas or up I-77 near Flat Top? Would love to see some pics of the 2-3 feet of snow come Wednesday morning.
7:15AM – Watching the first “wall of water” approaching DC from the east. Surprisingly no wind at all… eery calm/peaceful rain at the moment…
Coming to you live from the Hogwaller.
UVA classes are canceled, per the university website. Just went outside, 1-2mph gusts with a slight drizzle.
Worries that designer jeans might get wet!
Radar looks like rain is on the way, Baltimore getting lashed now.
34 in Woodlawn with snow flurries swirling out there!! Tough walking the chihuahuas this morning..forecast overnight low was 38,so seems to be a little colder. Don’t know if we will make it to the forecast high of 43 today…
Just saw our first flakes here
Snow mixing with rain this AM between exits 114 and 109 I81
WDBJ’s weather forecast this morning showed a high for Roanoke today of 51*. Isn’t that a bit too high?
Snow flying here at the base of brush mountain near Blacksburg
Light snow in Fairlawn since about 6:30am, 37 degrees.
It’s snowing here in Floyd already and has been for an hour or so……..
Pouring snow in Carroll County. My riding out the storm in Bluefield is in serious jeapordy – - strep throat isnt going away as planned
Dopplerville reporting – Awakened at 4:15 am with the sound of sleet hitting the window; now having blowing snow showers. Snow is blowing sideways. It has collected on the porch railings and on the car windows. Not many leaves left on the trees. Our big oak tree is about the only one with leaves still attached.
Current temp 32 F and there is “0.03″ inches of moisture in the rain gauge.
Some snow and sleet flying in the NRV from my house in eastern Pulaski County into Blacksburg, but obviously no accumulations. There was a little slush on the back deck, but that’s it.
36 degrees here with very light snow blowing in from the west mixed in with light rain here this morning. Most of the mountain tops are in the clouds, but I can see the white stuff in a field part way up one of the mountains.
We have accumulating snow in Indian Valley, VA!
Well, accumulating on cars, railings, and elevated pathways.
Driving in from Riner to Blacksburg it was 34 degrees most of the way, 33 on I-81 near the top of Christiansburg Mountain. It was snowing lightly most of the way, or snow mixed with rain. I bet the higher elevations (>2500 feet) in the NRV could end up with a few inches of snow.
Snow on the deck, grass, and vehicles this morning in Wangle Junction, (Floyd County). Temperature was 32 when I left for work.
Currently snowing in Marion with temperature around 34 degrees.
We’ve had snow flurries in Wytheville since 10pm last night. Still snowing lightly and 34 degrees. I think we’ll have an inch or two on the grass on Tuesday morning.
Just reading Kevin’s posts and this blog is such a remember of the awesome power of weather and that we need to respect it. My thermometer measured 35 this morning – 2 degrees less than the official Hokieburg reading of 37. Mine generally reads 2 degrees warmer than NWS measurement but this is winter now and it is in a facing north spot. I moved the sensor out of the area between the screen and the window to on the brick edge near the window.
One of my VT 757 students (VA Beach) posted the webcam there and you cannot get on it because the server is so busy. I know they are worried about their families – so many come from the eastern side of the state, MD, PA and NJ.
I guess that a bunch of those pesky snow flakes did not get the memo and have dared to venture 20 miles EAST of I-77 and down below 3,000′. I don’t mind so long as they don’t plan to invite lots of friends to join them and stick around from now til April, non-stop.
630a – light mist; 730a – light snow; 845a – occasional snow showers; not sticking
Got into a decent snowfall passing through Christiansburg at 8:15 this morning; nothing sticking yet, as expected (still 35 degrees there). Here in Radford, a few flakes are trying to mix in at the moment…
Mix of snow, rain and sleet in Radford right now (and for the last hour). Nothing sticking, of course.
Report from south end of Bburg proper: rain and snow mixed this morning from ~6:30AM, now more snow – but what I would call flurries to light rain intensity. Just a little breezy – normal Bburg wind right now.
Was 36 degrees at 6:30, now 35. It’s going to be an interesting ride!
Fine flakes mixing in here and can see hints of snow blowin across Bent. Mt. at 9:20 AM.
Pretty calm wind in Pulaski @ 9:25 and blowing snow. NWS hourly weather graph for Puville says the winds should already be 20 mph with 36 mph gusts. I hope they are wrong like this for the next few days!
The only memo the snowflakes had was they weren’t supposed to accumulate much east of I-77 or below 3,000 feet … but we’ll see where we get with that later tonight.
Cold air advection is a little stronger than modeled, obviously. Question for later today and tonight is what new bands of precipiation work in from the north as Sandy moves ashore (gonna keep calling her Sandy for simplicity, whatever her official status), whether the cold air level remains as it is or becomes slightly milder with the infusion of tropical-influenced moisture, or whether the cold expands farther east and even lower with evaporational cooling/dynamic cooling/cold air advection.
Precipitation looks mostly light for today, and temperatures probably won’t move much up or down, so probably little change in the snow situation til dark.
Wind at my house has been singing in the trees — estimating 25-30 mph gusts. Nothing extreem. Wind will be pretty spotty, elevation and topography-effected, until Sandy actually gets closer to shore and moving inland.
The wind we have is not really just about Sandy, but about the contrast between her low pressure and the high pressure to the west helping funnel in the cold air — and the choppiness of the wind over the mountains. If we were in plains instead of mountains, probably wouldn’t have much threat of over 45 mph, as the harder winds would just blow over our heads without hitting anything.
Wind should be comparable to a really strong Arctic cold front — 60 mph gusts and some power outages are not uncommon with those — but will last longer than those usually do. The leafiness of the trees, especially lower elevations, adds to the wind damage threat.
HPC has hardened its boundaries along Va-WVa border and I-77 — not expanded eastward — on heavy snow next 2 days.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
The big obstacle to significant snow farther east tonight and Tuesday may not be how cold it is, but how much moisture rotates around the circulation and gets over the mountains. These maps are for 4-plus, not lesser amounts — and already seem unlikely to be accurate at least for the high ridgetops east of the boundaries drawn. If there’s more moisture than this entering our region and it’s as cold or colder than it is now, things may change.
So that’s where we stand, waiting on Sandy to get on shore and spin up more wind and maybe throw more moisture our way. Until then, breezy and cold like a fairly typical January day, and some snow in the air especially west of the Blue Ridge and at higher elevations (we’ll define as 2,000-plus).
The mountain tops have partially revealed themselves and the trees are covered with snow. I don’t think they’re 900′ higher than I am though. Still snowing lightly here, but not sticking. Not very windy either.
The hits keep coming.
http://www.avalonpier.com/piercam.html
A friend of ours is 40-60 miles north of where Sandy is expected to make landfall later today. He says there are some folks already without power in his town and the neighboring town. Some small branches down in his neighborhood.
Temps now at Doppler Ridge now at 35 and the snow has melted on the porch railings and car windows. Snow is still blowing sideways.
Hey Soozinne in Floyd – Howdy neighbor!
Rigel – let’s hope not many of those flakes got the memo that there is an opening for them here. LOL
We have snow and rain mixed here today. Some schools to our west closing early. NWS saying up to 14 inches tonight and tomorrow at 2500 feet and above. We are sitting at 2000 ft and may get up to seven inches. Local weather out of Bristol calling for up to three inches there and all snow after dark.
At 943 millibars (27.85 inches of mercury), central pressure of Hurricane Sandy now the lowest on record for the Atlantic coast region north of Cape Hatteras.
KM: what time period do you think DC will experience the worst of this storm? Thx.
Food safety tips from food blogger Lindsey Nair, just in case you experience a power outage:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/fridgemagnet/2012/10/food-safety-during-a-power-outage/
DC: 6 p.m. tonight to noon Tuesday will likely be worst in DC. Evening rush could start getting dicey with high winds. You may get some 70-80 gusts up there.
Watching Sandy move toward NJ/NYC area, I get a similar sinking feeling to what I felt seeing Katrina close in on New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. It won’t be the absolute devastating catastrophe that was, but it’s going to be an epic disaster that many, many people have underestimated.
By being such a large storm, one good thing about that is that some folks have started to see what it is doing with the center way off shore, and have a little time to reconsider their options. A Hurricane Andrew with a narrow corridor of intense damage doesn’t allow for that.
Agree…my thoughts & prayers go out to those affected.
My In-Laws moved from Seaside Park, NJ Sept. 2011 and their house was on the beach. Sad thing is that that area is an island with the bay on the west side. I sat thru a heavy snow in 2009 & a blizzard in 2010 during those 2 Christmas’s. Those 2 storms are pale in comparison to Sandy. Glad they are out of harms way in Massachusetts.
Close up Hi-Res satellite of NJ area. Convection exploding in the center.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html
Was looking at the 11AM NHC advisory on Sandy.
She’s turned WNW now instead of NW. Coming farther south.
WIll try to update the Quags site ASAP
I just want to thank Kevin and this community again for the top rate information. It allowed me to call my family in Reading, PA (pretty much on the direct storm track inland as of right now) and tell them on Friday that they should NOT ignore this one. They listened – and are glad they did now as they hunker down for 75 mph predicted gusts – over 2 hours inland.
I meant a 2+ hour drive to the coast. Sorry for not being clear.
Probable snowfall map for the next 48 hours increases coverage area.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_48hr/prb_48hsnow_ge02_2012102912f048.gif
Will the storm shifting a little more east have more of an impact on us in regards to precip. The wind is howling with light rain showers and a temperature of 40 degrees
Still not more than 40 percent east of I-81. A little dry slot in Southside area.
Overnight/Tuesday morning will be key on this. Not much accumulating snow going to happen in daytime hours today.
If the WNW shift Quags mentions hold, it could come in a bit farther south and that would nudge up its impacts for us. At this point, we’re talking subtle shifts whatever it does.
I will be off the computer a bit this afternoon — family life responsibilities continue in the Myatt house, storm or not. I will be approving comments from time to time and may pitch something in every once in a while, so keep posting. We’re sorta in a holding pattern — gradually increasing winds, otherwise little change thru the afternoon. Will be back on most of this evening as Sandy comes ashore and begins to influence our weather even more.
For all of my teacher friends out there – I am thinking of you. It is a Monday; the first snowflakes are being seen; full moon tomorrow; Halloween the day after; and Frankenstorm blowing. I can hear echoes in my head “Do you think they will send us home early? When are they going to send us home?” and scenes from my mind of having to close the blinds and cover the windows so I could get the students to focus and do what was required.
Sheets of snow blowing sideways out my window and it sounds like the wind is picking up. Going to be a long day and night.
Noon report from Quagville in eastern Goochland Co west of Richmond.
Temp has dropped to 46 with moderate to heavy rain
winds out of the N 17 gusting to 28 mph
pressure has dropped to 993mb or 29.33″
Rain & wind really starting to pick up here as the radar is now yellow.
Joe…
If you are up and working….
FAA just advised that Atlanta Center lost all Radar & Comm feeds.
Verizon is working on it. Back ups slowly getting on line. Flights getting re-routes around ZTL Airspace.
Here’s a link to a live stream from a CBS TV in Philadelphia
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/live-video/
My daughter who lives in Coatesville PA (50 mi west of Philly)sent it to me
Kevin or any of you other weather gurus…How bad to you expect it to get in Richmond? Would you expect it to be similar to here or worse?
Richmond may actually fare slightly better on winds without the mountain effects. But peak gusts of 60 mph are at least possible. Duration may not be as long in Richmond as low tracks west inland and continues strong mountain gusts.
Agree Kevin…
just had a gust to 42 here in Goochland Co. heavy rain pressure falling like a rock.
My website provider is down so I can’t update it.
Just had reports here on Richmond media of major flooding to east & north of RIC especially in MD & DC now.
Steady cold rain here. Not much wind at this point. Expect that to change later today. Went by the store (a few days ago) and picked up the required milk, bread, beer, chips and of course canned cheese dip.
Also picked up charcoal in the slight chance my propane bottles run out, bottled water, canned soup and potatoes–and Mountain Dew for my caffeine addicted wife. All things that will keep in case the power dissapears.
Got all the stuff on the porch stowed away, my flashlights charged up, picked up extra candles, batteries, extra pet food, and my cars topped off with fuel. Confirmed that the propane wall heater in the basement works. Pumped up the inflatable mattress in case we opt to sleep on a lower level (in case one of the massive pine trees to the side of our house snap in the middle of the night) I’m sure I’m missing something but feel pretty good about the preparations at this point.
Kevin thanks for all your hard work in making sure we are well informed. You may save a few lives with this blog–who knows.
Just had thunder & lighhhhhtning west of Richmond….
A 20 N MI DIAMETER
EYE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 94 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT…AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF 80-83 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT MORE THAN 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A
LITTLE…TO ABOUT 943 MB. BASED ON THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE
DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.
My southwestern section of Floyd County (elevation 2851′ between Black Ridge and Buffalo Mountain)has had snow showers all morning. Snow is beginning to accumulate (temperature is 32.5) on the grass and has the north sides of tree trunks looking quite skeletal. Wes, how does the top of the ridge look? Doppler Carol, I can just about smell your pot of soup and something good in the oven! I haven’t heard from Lancaster PA relatives but hope they’re hunkered down.
This is good. Here is a live cam of Cool Ridge, WV. There are “snow poles” at 3-inch intervals set up in right foreground.
http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/AppMnt11/1/show.html
BLIZZARD WARNINGS JUST ISSUED FOR CHARLOTTESVILLE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
216 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
VAZ027-029-036>040-WVZ055-502-300230-
/O.EXB.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.121029T1816Z-121030T1800Z/
SHENANDOAH-PAGE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-
HARDY-EASTERN GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…CHARLOTTESVILLE…WASHINGTON…
MOOREFIELD…PETERSBURG
216 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
…BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE…HEAVY WET SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES.
* ACCUMULATIONS…6 TO 12 INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET.
* TIMING…SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* TEMPERATURES…LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
* WINDS…WEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
* IMPACTS…IT IS LIKELY THAT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND AND
HEAVY WET SNOW WILL DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. EXPECT NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITIES IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS…MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL…HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED…STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
NWS just issued a blizzard warning for us up here in Rockingham County (central Shenandoah valley)…for elevations above 2000′…40 degrees currently where I live at 1500′
Is this a mistake!! Says national weather service out of DC has Greene county under a blizzard warning! LOL somebody screwed up big time! Little to warm for snow here. Can you set the record straight on this Kevin?
NWS Baltimore/Washington just issued blizzard warnings for the Charlottesville/Stanton/Harrisonburg area. 6-12 inches of heavy, wet snow expected at elevations above 2000 feet. Curiously, the NWS grid forecasts just call for rain tonight for that area.
Blizzard Warning now for Nelson County can Charlottesville
I think its gonna be to warm for some places in WV to get a foot. Of course snow shoe will get it because thats normal for them. Just talked to my mom in beckley wv and its not sticking right now. Maybe tonight
Winds and rain are really picking up as we have a few stronger bands passing through. I’d have to guess the gusts are about 35 mph
Deep Roots, just talked to friend a little south in Shepherdstown, wind and rain,with no small amount of wind noise
Blizzard warnings for Charlottesville and northward are elevation dependent — 2,000 feet plus. Still 44 in Charlottesville. Maybe some snowflakes work downward later, but blizzard conditions unlikely at those lower elevations.
On the subject of snow, I took a little field trip toward Bent Mountain. I was surprised when I started getting into flakes at the base of Bent Mountain, or a little over 2000 feet in elevation. Hit snow much lower than I expected. Was peppering down decently up top, and the side of Poor Mountain is white.
I will post new for the evening. Waiting to see evening update from Blacksburg. Terribly interested in how they handle the snow issue, and whether elevation-dependent blizzard/winter storm warnings may be expanded.
Just got back from a jaunt to Hokieburg and can report that it was rain/snowing harder in Giles County than there, though it doesn’t seem to be doing much here in Narz at the moment. My car thermometer said it was 32-34 most of the trip. It is getting a little breezier – all was calm a few minutes ago. I saw several out-of-state power trucks trekking east on 460, a VDOT plow with snow on it, and several cars with snow on their windshields. I didn’t see any sticking snow myself except white mountain tops.
Posting from up on Brush Mountain Blacksburg. Snowing all day, off & on, no accumulation, as expected. Gusts picking up in intensity & frequency a bit more now, wind howling at times. Looks very wintry, blizzard-like at times!
You gotta see this Hi-Res Sat. visible loop of Sandy!
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/
Rain/Sleet mix now in Goochland Co at 39. Getting reports that the top of Afton Mt. on I-64 is beginning to get white & slick.
http://www.511virginia.org/
Re blizzard warnings for Central Virginia. NWS warning includes City of Charlottesville. Not sure that can be elevation dependent, as the City has a relatively low elevation.
The NWS software can’t separate Charlottesville from the surrounding county for winter warnings as it does for severe warnings. The warning text explicitly states it is above 2,000 feet. Just like you see several other counties entirely colored for a winter weather advisory/warning, but the text states it’s for 2,000 feet.
This same thing happens when the city of Roanoke is sometimes included in ice/snow advisories that only affect Bent Mountain and elevations above 2,000 feet in Roanoke County.
Well … on further review … the accumulations listed are for above 2,000 feet. The warning doesn’t specify an elevation.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ037&warncounty=VAC540&firewxzone=VAZ037&local_place1=&product1=Blizzard+Warning
Regardless, there is no mention of snow in Charlottesville’s forecast, with a projected low of 43.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.02719714050964&lon=-78.48652354492185
Good news for me then!
From Channel 7 TV – “As of 4:45 p.m. the power outages include 1,430 customers without power in Montgomery County, 691 customers in Floyd County, and 112 without power in Giles County.”
We are fine here – better start making supper though.
No snow here,,yet. CHO reporting 43. As much rain as we have had and are currently experiencing, it’s interesting that the dewpoint is 38 and both temp and DP have been falling steadily all day. They are reporting a low of 42, I think we’ll continue to slide past that as it sure feels like it could snow.
Heavy snow band while leaving work in Blacksburg. 33 degrees. The snow band seems to be bringing the wind down to the surface. Really rocking the truck.
Temperature down to 32.9º at 5:30, windy with light snow. Hard to believe the size and power of this storm.
Here’s a link to 172 pictures of Sandy’s wrath.
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-sandy-pictures-photos2-20121025
Winds blowing considerably harder in the last hour, along with snow showers coming in horizontally.
Winter Weather advisory just went up for Rockbridge and Amherst Counties. At this point, it’s really hard to tell what Sandy is going to bring our way. It seems like conditions and forecasts change hour by hour. Thanks Kevin for keeping us all updated!
You can add Craig, Giles & Bland County to the WWA list.
Quags: I added those in my 6:15 a.m. update.
thnx…
Sandy just made landfall…details momentarily
Chalk one up for the Leo Lady ….. today’s high at RRA was 47, and it certainly won’t be going up this evening. Sounds like the bloggers here can do a better job of predicting the high temps for today than the NWS and the TV stations …. :>) :>) :>)
Rigel Morgan of Willis, you sounded like a Snow Hater, or at least a Snow Disliker! True?? This comment was brought to you by the Chairman of the SWVA Snow Hater’s Club.
White out conditions with blowing and drifting snow in Burke’s Garden.
700mb (10000ft) windfield is interesting as are the temps.
Jacksonville Fl is -5c..winds 45kts rotating from NW like you would
surmise..however temps in all of SE Canada are plus 1 or plus 2 with
45kt winde out of SE.
The winds in upper Canada are zonal ..west to east until Hudson Bay..
There they turn abruptly direct southerly.
I think possibly these NNW winds over the Roanoke Valley may be some
of the reason the snows are making it to the surface Kevin as in what you saw the base of Poor Mountain. These winds at altitide have a long continental fetch from Canada. These winds may be gouging and displacing atmosphere from there unlike typical storms of “relative” weakness and not as much mixing yet.
Minor correction to what you posted above, Doppler Carol. The full moon has already happened. 3:48 PM today.
Mr. Myatt, Could you explain what exactly has caused snow to fall in our area because of Hurricane Sandy?
Wendy: Answered this in most recent thread.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/2012/10/sandy-near-landfall-wild-windy-night-ahead-in-sw-virginia-with-some-rain-and-snow/
My 10:24 pm comment on that thread.