Clouds at night keep the temps at a higher height; wedge weather makes you want to wear a sweater
By guest blogger Kathryn Prociv
Good Monday, everyone! You can already tell this is still Kathryn covering the weather blog by the cheesy title.
Before discussing today’s weather, the jury is out on just how strong the weekend cold front was. Record low temperatures were broken all the way from the Northern Plains to Upper and Lower Midwest. Meteorologist James Spann (@spann) posted a map this morning on Twitter showing the large spatial area impacted by record cold temperatures.
Even though that same cold front impacted our area, there’s a reason why we didn’t likewise have record low temperatures: CLOUDS. Cloudy skies overnight helped to keep our temperatures warm and above freezing virtually everywhere. There was a slight teaser last night where just before sunset the skies cleared and the sun came out. If the clear skies stuck around, we would have been much colder this morning!
For those who dislike the dark, gloomy weather you won’t be happy today, as we’re still stuck in that “wedge-weather” I described in yesterday’s post: cold temperatures, light rain and low clouds. You can expect the same story today as yesterday with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. The surface observation plot from 11:30 a.m. shows easterly to northeasterly winds still bringing in that cool and moist marine air from the Atlantic. The warmer spots are locations near the Piedmont like Martinsville and Danville with temperatures in the mid-upper 40s. The cooler spots are, you guessed it, locations at higher elevations such as Beckley and Bluefied, W.Va., with temperatures hovering right around 40 degrees.
Keep in mind we have a chance of more rain this afternoon into the evening. The NAM forecasted reflectivity plot shows it raining in the NRV and Roanoke Valley by 2 p.m. and persisting through the evening. If you’re headed out, pack an umbrella and warm coat because it will be a cold rain. I don’t expect the rain to be too heavy, however, as the HPC shows only marginal precipitation totals possible through tomorrow morning.
Models indicate the wedge begins to break down tonight (earlier than originally thought) as high pressure moves in. This will allow some of the clouds to erode away through the night, so expect colder temperatures tomorrow morning than we had this morning. As the wedge breaks down tomorrow, we will have clearing skies, drier air and a gradual warm-up with temperatures rising into the 50s and 60s.
Hang in there on this bleak Monday, and look toward tomorrow for improving weather conditions!
October 8, 2012 - 1:25 PM
RSS feed 
Tied a record for overnight low here at DFW
airport (39F)
Some outlying areas had their first freeze.
So Kathryn, your a poet and didnt know it! LOL You definately add a little flair to the Journal headings! So when is the next big shot of cold air coming down?
FIRST SNOW HITS MID-ATLANTIC REGION OCTOBER 8!
Snowshoe & Canaan Valley getting big flakes as we speak with current temp at 31 degrees on the mountain top per Mesonet
http://www.snowshoemtn.com
Canaan Valley Cam:
http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=DOSO1
Did some young lady mention that over the weekend?
iflateKathryn mentioned the possibility & darned if she was right
Oops….excuse the boo-boo on the last line next to Kathryn’s name
Quag’s Winter Weather Lesson 3-Weather Models & Forecasting Part 1
This week, I’m throwing in the quiz at the end of the discussion.
One of the more popular topics of discussion in the weather community including this weather blog is weather models. Essentially, a model is a computer program that produces meteorological information for future times at given locations and altitudes & is an important tool that aids Meteorologists & Climatologists with weather forecasting.
Did you know that there are over 300 different models used around the globe for weather & climate forecasting? In the words of Johnny Carson, “I did not know that!” Rather than being specific, here are the 3 categories of model systems most often used for winter weather forecasting with examples, some of which you have heard here before.
Long Range models used for beyond 30 days
Medium to Long-Range Operational Models
• GFS (Global Forecast System)-NOAA’s own model
• ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) aka “The Euro”
• GGEM (Canadian) or CMC
• NOGAPS (US Navy)
• UKMET (British)
Short Range
• NAM (North American Mesoscale)
• RUC (Rapid Update Cycle)
• AVN (Aviation model that is part of the GFS)
• SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast)
• RGEM (Canadian)
We could spend countless days & years discussing what the models do, say, forecast & which model is the best. The main point to know here is that they are tools to aid in forecasting. A good Met (Meteorologist) will use all available information to arrive at his forecast & not rely on just one model. Just remember rule #1, Mother Nature will always have the final say in what the weather will do. No model is ever 100% correct & neither are weather forecasts. With the technological advances mankind has seen in the last 50 years alone, forecast accuracy has greatly increased. By using models, Mets can get a much better idea of what may happen in the future.
More important is the fact that weather models are also used to predict the Teleconnections (remember from last week?)
See next comment for part 2
Quag’s Winter Weather Lesson 3-Weather Models & Forecasting Part 2
For your reference, please use the links below as a study guide. It’s much easier to do it this way & takes up less space which Kevin desires. Also, you can always come back to these links later on if need be. So here we go. For you Mets out there, if you would love to add to this lesson or correct me, by all means, please help out!
From the research division of NOAA (lots of info here):
http://www.research.noaa.gov/weather/t_modeling.html
College of Dupage Weather Lab:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
NOAA’s CPC (Climate Prediction Center):
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/predictions.php
Film Time! Advanced Weather Modeling-The Future Forecast, Navy Style:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vht4NWLzMOk&feature=related
NOAA’s Hydrologic Prediction Center link for model Bias:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.html
Phillyweather.net link on how to read computer model graphics:
http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2008/01/weather-101-how-to-read-computer-model.html
Unisys link for NAM & other models on winter weather (Good Stuff):
http://weather.unisys.com/nam/winter.php
Jeff Haby’s theweatherprediction.com website is loaded with great information!
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/models/
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/431/
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/general/
See next comment for Part 3
Quag’s Winter Weather Lesson 3-Weather Models & Forecasting Part 3
There are a ton of model links on the internet & there is no way I could list them all here. Below is a sample of Actual Model links:
Corcoran College, PA Wintercast Site:
http://wintercast.tripod.com/id14.html
Wunderground
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0
Albany University Computer Model webpage that has links to other sites:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/greenstein/models.html
The Pennsylvania State University Department of Meterology E-Wall:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
AllanHuffman’s Weather model page:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
See next comment for part 4
Quag’s Winter Weather Lesson 3-Weather Models & Forecasting Part 4
Which brings us to today. What are the models telling us today on October 8, 2012?
Winter Weather Forecast/El Nino update…Some are now saying that El Nino has turned into El Nada. Really? Both Brett Anderson @ accuweather.com & Dr. Jeff Masters @ wunderground.com have backed off their winter forecasts saying that El Nino is fizzling out & going neutral.
CPC’s Weekly ENSO update
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Interesting article from the Washington Post concerning El Nino:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/el-nino-may-fall-fizzle-and-fall-short-of-hype/2012/10/05/6a4734e2-0ef9-11e2-bd1a-b868e65d57eb_blog.html?fb_ref=sm_btn_fb
Here’s a link from Meteorologist Dave Tolleris @wxrisk.com. This discusses a particular model (CFS version 2) & its ensemble mean forecast for the last week of October into November. Please note that this model ensemble says it will turn colder for the eastern US during the last week of October into November. The previous forecast was warmer for this period. This could be a big game changer for our winter forecast. https://www.facebook.com/?ref=tn_tnmn#!/photo.php?fbid=431677753546155&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater
Bob Guarino at his liveweatherblogs.com blog is holding off on making another ENSO assessment til later on around November 1:
http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=2639&Itemid=179
So is El Nino really going bye-bye? We shall see. With that in mind, I am making no changes in my October Forecast. I still think that November & December will be normal to slightly above normal on temps & precip. January, February, March right now will be normal to above normal on temps & close to normal on precip. It is safe to say that the eastern US has a greater chance of seeing more snow this winter than the last 2.
See next comment for Quiz
Quag’s Winter Weather Lesson 3-Weather Models & Forecasting Quiz & end!
Quiz
1. At which temperature is it too cold to snow?
a. 0 F
b. -10 F
c. -20 F
d. -30 F
e. None of the above
2. True/False…The GFS is issued 4 times daily going out to 16 days.
3. True/False…Weather models can predict teleconnections as well as forecast specifics.
4. The most powerful “nowcasting” tool for winter precipitation is:
a. Radar
b. Skew-T
c. Satellite
d. Model data
5. For both Snow Lovers & Dis-likers to ponder…There is no need to worry about forecasting winter precipitation if:
a. Only light precipitation is expected
b. The temperature profile can only support rain
c. The surface temperature is below freezing
d. All of the above
Next week…Winter Storms
It’s a little hard to see KM starting a new post with poetry everytime tho. Better left to the present person.
Joe you mentioned tying the DFW record for overnight low. Yesterday Blacksburg broke it’s own record of a minimum high temperature. We only reached 48F which breaks a previous record from 2001. We’re on track to do it again today.
Glen you beat me to it: SNOW IN WEST VIRGINIA today! Here are a few pictures for you to add to Glen’s
https://twitter.com/AviationandWX/status/255353634399866880/photo/1
http://twitter.yfrog.com/kfqqulp
I also liked all the great resources you posted. I took a quick screen grab of some maps while the snow was being reported. Shows 850mb temps near 0C, surface temps hugging 32F, and surface obs reporting snow
https://twitter.com/KathrynProciv/status/255357121464500224/photo/1
Jared I have a propensity toward poetry
Well, I didn’t play your last game, so here’s my one answer.
# 1===[E].
If I’m right, I’ll only score 20 on the test and still fail. But then again, if I don’t jerk an answer out for the other 4, then I can’t be wrong and will score 100. Seems like a no lose proposition to me.
Snow in WV on October 8th is certainly exciting; however, let’s remeber that last year, a week earlier (October 1, 2011,) Snowshoe received 9″ of snow. Unfortunately, that was one of the biggest storms of the entire “winter”!
UPDATE: water vapor satellite shows some dry air about to enter our region. That should help erode some clouds and dry us out overnight!
https://twitter.com/KathrynProciv/status/255439907395346434/photo/1
I’m baaaaaaaaaaaaack. Drove home back through the NRV today, all the way in Virginia from Bristol to Salem, then side streets home. Temps were a very cool 46* in Bristol about 3:30, rose to 48* in Abingdon and Chilhowie, then back to 46 in Marion, then 45 just NE of Marion. “OK,” I figured, “from here on they should warm up a bit.” WRONG!! 43 in Wytheville and stayed there all the way past Radford, then dropped all the way to 41 (!!!) at Christiansburg at Exit 118. A few more degrees cooler and we would have been driving through sleet.
What is this?!! Have I been Rip Van Winkgriggs and slept through 61 days? Is this December 8th? At least I did not have to deliver mail in that cold soup, and my body has started to re-acclimate.
One superb surprise …. there was 1.4 inches of rain in my gauge!! Return of the Emerald Lawn. Except for the super wet days in Vicksburg, this vacation was fabulous for the weather. Mostly sunny where I was, but my lawn got soaked. Why can’t this happen in summer?
Because, Douglas, (strike up the Mick Jagger / Rolling Stones music ….) “You can’t always get what you want …”
It is great to be back. Nancy gets the senior puppy out of “jail (the kennel)” tomorrow morning.
I mentioned seeing snow/ice on radar returns in Greenbrier Valley yesterday i think..I just didnt know if it showed in ground observations.
Quiz?? Did someone mention quiz? I’ll go along with The Brandman’s answer to question 1, and add an answer of my own. Question 5: No need to worry or beg for winter precipitation if …… b. The temperature profile can only support rain.
I may regurgitate that answer a couple of times this winter. Oh, assuming that my answer is correct ……
Kathryn, in reply to your 3:14 comment ….. “You’re a poet and you know it.” Or “poetess.”
Quags, the correct answer to the “nowcasting” question has to be either Radar or Skew-T (probably radar), but I will leave that up to someone else. Might help if respondents google “Skew-T” to find out what on earth it is. I used the explanation provided on a website called “theweatherprediction.com” If you say that the correct answer is satellite, then you and I can have a discussion.
I think the coldest “daily high or maximum” temperatures were set at both Roanoke and Blacksburg, and probably Danville and Lynchburg, too. Brent Watts of WDBJ7 claimed that the coldest highs for ROA and BBURG for OCT 8 were previously 54 and 48. Today’s highs? 47 and 42. If those are correct, the previous records were shattered (like a hockey puck hitting a weak spot in the protective glass), not just broken.
Cloudy cold day here,low 40 high only 47,light rain at times.Can`t remember the last time it was this cold in early October.Stay warm all!Mike!
The temperature is sticking right at 40 so far this evening. It is cloudy out there so maybe it won’t go too much lower.
Loved the pictures of the snow at Snowshoe! “Be still my beating heart!” I am trying to not get too excited. Then I saw the “Accuweather” prediction – we will see about that one. I know how “accurate” they can be.
Temp is down to 39 and there is a light drizzly mist outside. Yuck!
!
Kathryn, thanks for pointing out in your 6:50 PM comment that drier air seems to be moving into this area. We will see if it happens tomorrow PM. Right now both “7″ and TWC call for ROA temps to reach the low 60s.
here Maybe that will happen. Sometimes these wedges (or “Cold Air Damming” situations) have a habit of sticking around longer than expected or wanted, like an unlikeable relative who stays longer than planned. Especially in winter, and especially in Roanoke.
Tomorrow’s forecast has a higher chance of being badly off than most other days. IMHO.
Or perhaps an “Atmospheric Poetess..
all terrain digital, pinpoint,
weather finesse”
Snowshoe has a video up on their website of the snow yesterday. Click videos on the top left. Looks like I picked the wrong weekend to go leaf watching up there (the 20th). Everything seems to be in full color already.
I like to rhyme in a short amount of time!
Yesterday certainly turned out to be a yucky one. As Doug mentioned, record low high temperatures were set for Blacksburg, Roanoke, Bluefield, and Danville. Those are just the ones I know of, so I’m sure other places broke records as well. Today looks much better!
Nowcasting relies on very sophisticated technology and algorithms – look out the window or walk outside. Or in the case of snowshoe, a webcam can be very helpful.
Latest CPC ENSO Report out. Still looks promising for Snow Lovers
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
It’s official, CPC says ENSO is now neutral to weak El Nino.
Summary
* Note: These statements are updated once a month in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch*
• ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) remain above average across much of the Pacific Ocean.
• The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific is near average.
• Borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions are expected to continue into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, possibly strengthening during the next few months.*
We didn’t dip below 40 last night, clouds kept the temperatures pretty much flat. Not really warming up a ton today either, still holding near 50. Not much rain yesterday as the energy drove up west of us in through WV, but we did get 0.10″ of drizzle and very light rain showers, bringing a 3-day total of just over a half-inch at 0.54″.
Still sitting 1.75″ light for the year (a result of a very dry June, mostly, with slightly dry July and August), so some more this fall would be helpful. Only 3 of 9 months this year have been normal or above-normal for precipitation (March, April, September…each a quarter-inch to an inch above-normal). The other 6 months of below-normal precipitation saw 2 come within a quarter-inch of normal, 2 between a quarter and 3/4 inch of normal, and the other 2 over a 1″ departure from normal (June the worst at 1.43″ short).
If anyone wants to “play” with the new radar, it’s here (click on zip code to have it hone in):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/ridgenew2/
The new Radar works with my Android phone, which is great because previously, all I could get was static images. The weird thing, that was one of the few advantages my old Blackberry had. It had Java embedded in the browser, so it would play the Radar loops, no problem. Android doesn’t have Java-plugin support in their browsers, so no looping. This, however, does work. Which is nice, because I don;t like using 3rd-party software just to have radars that I can utilize.
Question here. What do the light and dark blue squares represent?
Trevor..
I dont think Nowcasting is quite that simple..
Nowcasting is very valuable in my profession.
Technically its looking out from current conditions
to 6 hours out.
I use Nowcasting sometimes nearly exclusively to
save money planning commercial flights.
WD…
those dots ideally represent precipitation
or at least something bouncing off the radar.
Its highly pixelated (squarish displays)
Theres not much to display..could be virga..
It may still take some tweaking or some mental
editing of our own to get used to the new
sensitivities of the new toy. Thats how I see it
anyway.
Love the new radar – looking good! Glad to see we are upgraded!
Thanks Joe. Think I’ll stick with the old version. Mo better, IMO.
Reckon it could also be flocks of blackbirds headin south too. Not much need to know about the birds direction of flight unless you would happen to be directly underneath a flock when they passed over.
Might disagree that they are birds..but you never know!
Actually u are onto something WD…
They are actually using radars around some airports
that are designed specifically to detect birds.
You are ahead of your time.
http://www.detect-inc.com/
Here is a terrific graphic from NOAA of a couple of flocks
of birds showing up on radar.
This was painted on the Jacksonville Fl radar Oct 2009.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/?n=bird_detection_via_doppler_radar
Not ahead of my time Joe. We’ve been using radar for years to detect flocks of birds at or near the surface to find feeding ativity offshore. Fine tuned, it will take you right to a flock divebombing a school of bait and feeding with fish cuttin them. Also useful to see a fogbank coming.