Cloudy, cool and calm: An apt alliteration to describe Tuesday’s weather
By guest blogger Kathryn Prociv
Yesterday sure was a gloomy day across our area. We had a cold rain for much of the day accompanied by record cold temperatures for this time of year. Blacksburg, Roanoke, Danville, and Bluefield, W.Va., all experienced record minimum high temperatures on Monday, meaning maximum temperatures have never been this cold this early in October before.
I spoke with Kevin this morning, and he provided me these tidbits: Roanoke’s high of 47F yesterday beat the record low high of 49F from October 9, 1952. Blacksburg only reached 42F, making it the earliest 42F temperature since October 13, 1957.
Besides the record cold temperatures, the other big weather headline from yesterday was the first snow of the season! Snowflakes were reported near Dolly Sods, Snowshoe and Canaan Valley, W.Va. Here’s a picture from Twitter showing the snow falling at Snowshoe Mountain. Sure, it was only a dusting, but I’m sure the snow lovers were happy yesterday!
Today is a big improvement from yesterday. We’re still stuck in the clouds as that cold air wedge holds on, but temperatures should be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs reaching the 50s and 60s across our area. Perhaps the best news of all? No rain. All the rain has moved away from our area so we will stay dry today. The wedge breaks down tonight as high pressure approaches the area, shifting our winds to a southwesterly flow; this will aid to break down the remainder of the wedge and provide even warmer temperatures for tomorrow with highs in the 60s and low 70s.
Tomorrow, another cold front impacts the area. A map from the HPC short range models shows the position of the cold front tomorrow at 8 a.m. Models indicate the front will move through our area during the mid-afternoon. The story with this cold front won’t be rain, but gusty winds. This front will be accompanied by a steep pressure gradient, meaning there will be a rapid change in pressure over a relatively short distance; abrupt changes in pressure cause strong winds, especially at higher elevations where there could be gusts up to 30 mph. The mean sea level pressure (MSLP) chart per the GFS for tomorrow afternoon shows the isobars (lines of equal pressure) close or “pinched” together, indicating strong winds across the area.
Enjoy the cool, dry and calm day today!
October 9, 2012 - 1:18 PM
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Glad everyone has been taking care of Kathryn in my absence! She’ll be on again Wednesday, and then I’ll be back on again for Thursday — I’ll file something very late Wednesday or early Thursday.
A point of clarification about the significance of Monday’s historically low high temperature in Roanoke: The 47-degree high, coming on Oct. 8, was the earliest sub-50 high in Roanoke’s weather history dating to 1912, the previous earliest being 49 on Oct. 9 in 1952. It is the coldest high ever recorded before Oct. 11 — that date brought a 46 high in 1993.
And as KP notes (I call her KP sometimes too), 42 was Blacksburg’s coldest high for so early in the season, the previous high so cold being 42 on Oct. 13, 1957. Blacksburg’s period of record begins in 1952.
So Ms. Prociv has brought you some historically cold weather. The clouds and rain have prevented a widespread frost from occurring. Instead, you got a day with highs similar to normals for January! Monday’s setup probably would have brought a widespread light-moderate snow were it about 6-8 weeks later on the calendar. (Whether you like any of this is matter of personal taste, of course)
I’ll be slowly working my way back into the weather groove over the next 24-36 hours. It’s been a good break — some family illness kept us from traveling, but an “unplugged stay-cation” has helped me catch my breath a bit.
I’ll be talking to you soon! Help KP finish her stint out strongly!
Ah, take your time KM. Ms. KP has done an outstanding job. BTW, you been gone?
Ms. KP had me at SimuAWIPS…that website is amazing!!! Thanks for the recommendation
Thanks wdbrand! Trying my best to fill in for the “real” weather blog guru. As KM pointed out, hard to believe if we were a little further into the cold season yesterday likely would have been a snowy day! Not much accumulation, but a good few hours of continuous snowfall!
KP, hats off to you, the NWS, WDBJ7 and even TWC for today’s forecast. The cool-air wedge relented enough to allow temps to reach 60 here in ROA, at least on my car’s thermometer driving home after 4 PM. The weather did take its time warming up. It still felt quite cool at 12:35 when I took my lunch break, although I am sure that it was above 50.
KP, I like your 3 C’s, although I used the 3 C’s myself several weeks ago to describe an unusually cool mid-Sept. morning. My first “C” was clear, however. Big hairy deal.
Now to address Capitan (no, that is NOT a typo, “Capitan” is Spanish for Captain) Glenno Quagmiro.
One more tiny praise for you, KP. I liked your rhymes and the 3C’s. Joe had a great poem (or am I misremembering again? …. was it somebody else?) several months ago, but his linking of “Poetess” and “finesse” was a bit like one of my typical comments …. it took a little too long to get to the meat of the meaning.
Capitan: why did you say that “It’s official. CPC says ENSO is now Neutral to weak El Nino”? Was that phrase used somewhere in the report? Reason I bring it up is that the temps in the 3.4 measurement zone are getting quite a bit cooler, now down to +0.1 on slide 5. And look at the graphs on pages 5 and 10 of what has been happening to the 3.4 temps and anomalies. Ah, I found where you got that “neutral to weak El Nino” phrase …. on the last slide. The evidence of the last 6 weeks with the 3.4 temps do not support that statement at all. Unless there is a big warm-up in 3.4 area coming soon.
I think that Dave Tolleris’ prediction in his September 15th update is going to be the accurate one ….. no true El Nino, not even a weak one.
Two more things about the ENSO report.
First and most importantly, TYVM to our Louisa County Link-Man (i.e., Quags) for posting the link to it.
2nd, for those of you who decide to link to it, I recommend that you look at slide (or “page”) 28, the “U.S. SEASONAL OUTLOOKS OCTOBER – DECEMBER 2012.” It shows SW Virginia in the 33% chance of being warmer than normal, and not all that far from the 40% line (northern WV and the western edge of Maryland). Question: Do you believe it? Even though I would love it if it verifies for December, I don’t believe it.
I just saw where a couple of you did my favorite trick, to continue posting on the previous thread. Almanacs?? I cannot speak about the other ones, KP, but the Old Farmer’s Almanac (“OFA” on this blog) has had some incredibly BAD winter outlooks.
About 5 years ago they predicted that both December and January were going to be incredibly colder than normal for both us (“The Appalachians) and the Northeast. Roughly 7 degrees colder than normal for both months. December started out that way, was a -6 for ROA through the 22nd, but then the last 9 days were all above normal, and about half of them were +5 or more. December ended up as something like -2.4. January?? 7 degrees ABOVE normal, one of the warmest Januarys ever in ROA. I am with Other John, and I am pretty sure our man in Wytheville — Rick — has the same opinion as the two of us. OFA is for entertainment value, and for looking up Easter, dates of full moons and holidays, and maybe folks who fish and hunt. Some of the articles on weather are top notch, however, at least IMO.
Doug thank you for all the kind words! I definitely noticed the wedge weakening as the day went on too. In fact, the sun came a few times over Blacksburg which was a pleasant surprise. I like your use of “clear, cool, and calm.” In fact, I think it has an even better ring to it because they’re all one syllable.
If I may chime in quickly about El Nino, I’ve been tracking it myself and agree it looks weak to non-existent. The fishing industry in Peru will sleep a little easier knowing it won’t be a moderate-severe episode.
Cold morning low around 43 cloudy and cool most of the day only around 60 for a high!Been loving this cooler weather!Calling for a high near 70 up here tommorrow,then only 61 thursday.Have a great night all! Mike
what happened kathryn? monday you said the wedge would go away monday night and clouds would be gone by tuesday morning. wedges never go away at night have you ever done any forecasting?
Doug like you, I don’t put much stock in the Almanacs (like I mentioned in a previous blog) because I find their forecasts suspect. If I don’t trust the GFS out to 16 days what are they looking at to make predictions months in advance right? Alas, they are still entertaining for weather peeps like us to read and analyze ha.
Quick question for KP, KM, or whoever may chime in… do general meteorology classes dip into the climatology stuff (ENSO, PNA, NOA, etc), or do they focus more on the immediate forecasts? I just wonder how much the general meteo-journalists take into account the long term aspects of the short term forecasts (i.e. Greenland blocks, teleconnections, etc). Curious.
Tyler..,.,
Where did you get data that suggested that
cold air wedges dont get get displaced at night?
Im about curious about that. And what mechanism or lack
thereof would make that a liklihood?
Temps stayed in the 50′s here at the Chapel today. The sun finally came through about 6 pm but it is still cloudy tonight with temp around 46. Have kept a fire in the cookstove ever since Saturday night. My wife complains about it being too warm inside but I am now on blood thinner for three months and the stove feels pretty good. I have not fired up my soapstone in the den. I feels better when nightime lows are in the 20′s and daytime highs stay in the 40′s. That will come later.
Thanks a bunch Kathryn for your help and you are welcome on this blog anytime you want.
Matt in my Introduction to Meteorology class I talk a lot about ENSO (El Nino and La Nina), but only touch on the oscillations like NAO and PNA. The Weather Analysis and Forecasting classes go a bit deeper into the oscillations, omega blocking, and Greenland block and the impact on forecasts. This is my experience going through the meteorology classes and now teaching one at VT, so unfortunately I can’t provide you information on how other schools handle those topics.
Tyler wedges are not nocturnally driven, at least not in my experience forecasting them. They are driven more by the movement of pressure systems which dictate the wind directions either conducive for a wedge set-up (NE winds), or for breaking down a wedge (SW flow).
Tyler in case I misunderstood, in my posts it was not my intention to say the wedge would break down at night because it was night…the models indicated the wedge would break down at that time. However this current wedge did what they always tend to do, and that’s hold on for longer than the models anticipate. Hope that clears up any confusion!
Mike you’re right in highs of 60s and 70s tomorrow. Closer to normal temperatures for this time of year. Have a good night as well!
It looked like the weather did exactly what she said. As the wedge broke down we started getting clearing skies on Tuesday. It never said you will wake up to 100% sunshine.
Here is a neat picture I came across on Twitter entitled “the wedge from above” https://twitter.com/nchasper/status/255850486039724032/photo/1
Thanks Marty! Forecasting the weather around a wedge can be very challenging. One more comment before calling it a night: just stepped outside and it definitely doesn’t feel that cold out there…in fact mild in comparison to the way it has felt the last 48 hours or so! Current surface obs indicate 46F in Blacksburg and 55F (warm!) in Roanoke. Looks like 40s for our area for overnight lows so not too bad. Goodnight everyone!
KP, KM, joe, wd, Quags, zach, Other John: Has the front already gone through here? Reason I ask is that I saw a thick cloud bank to the east of my house (it is the one direction in which I have an unobstructed view to the horizon) a few minutes ago, while the entire rest of the sky is clear. I got the impression from the tv guys that it was going to pass through about noon Wed. and kick up the winds like a somewhat agitated burro (unlike the irate mule on steroids who went postal on June 29th).
Tyler, the tone of the last few words of your 8:40 comment sounded awfully condescending …..
No Doug…
The front is well west of VA and Ky..
Winds will pick up around Roanoke and
Western Va after around noon maybe shift a little
westerly to northwesterly then…gusting 25-30kts.
Lewisburg very foggy overnight Tue (as I write this)
visiblities last few hours 1/4 mile.
It will pass as a dry front Wed .
Thanks, joe.
Kathryn: I have been reading your posts and comments and have enjoyed them. Thanks for filling in while Kevin was unplugged. I hope you will feel comfortable chiming in with your thoughts in the future.
Good morning all! Doug as Joe pointed out the front has not yet passed, and judging by surface observations it looks to be roughly at the western border of Ohio. The NAM indicates winds already picking up and turning around to the west by 11am for our area, so I think the front will come through sometime after lunchtime but before dinnertime.
current positions of the front: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/bawx_nav.php?imgtyp=wbg&arrval=0&vtime=Wed_12Z&ptime=Fri_12Z&ntime=Wed_18Z
positions of the front around 2pm: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/bawx_nav.php?imgtyp=wbg&arrval=1&vtime=Wed_18Z&ptime=Wed_12Z&ntime=Thu_00Z
Yeah, the front is still lagging back quite a ways. Nice morning though, enjoyed watching the sun rise. I just wish it wasn’t in line with my commuting route…
As for a wedge breakdown at night, I remember one of them quite clearly a year or 2 ago. We had been stuck in a dank, chilly airmass for quite a while, but the winds shifted in the overnight hours, and by morning it was cleared out and a good 10-15 degrees warmer than it was during the late evening hours. I believe it was associated with an approaching front finally shifting the winds. The wedge held on a bit longer in the Roanoke area than where we’re at, as they almost always do.
Paul’s comment got me to that SimuAWIPS site (which I’d missed earlier), and I have to say I’m loving it! Now I just have to remember the weather basics I learned back in 2nd grade, so I can start learning how to read all the other stuff there.
Paul I’m glad you like the SimuAwips. Please feel free to ask me or KM what any of the products mean!
Absolutely agree with Kevin on TWC announcement of naming winter storms. So what? TWC is becoming increasingly out of touch with its core viewership as it shows its numerous video productions instead of reporting weather in depth. Plus, its ideology promotion has become incessant and quite irritating. Personally, my time watching them on TV or online has dwindled as these changes have increased. Thanks to Kevin for the great job he does locally, far better than the “big boys”!
El querido Sr. Griggs:
Para responder a su pregunta, usted es correcto. I was poking fun at someone on another weather board (American WX Weenies) who complained at the fact that the CPC was lagging in making a decision to call the October 9 ENSO Report as they did. If you compare the latest ENSO report to earlier reports, CPC was a little bullish on bringing on El Nino. But like in the NFL, they properly reviewed the conditions and called it correctly for this latest weekly summary, unlike the “Replacement Ref Weenies” at the afforementioned other blog.
Yes, you are also correcto mundo in that the 3.4 temps have gone down. If you look at page 24 on the ENSO report, your comment is further validated as we have been “neutral” since the March/April/May period per the ONI as that figure has steadily increased over time, but only to have the ENSO remain neutral. As Rob Guarino explained in one of his blogs, one thing to keep an eye on will be the SST conditions in the Western Tropical Pacific. SST’s here have strengthened while the Eastern Pacific Waters are cooler. NOW HERE’S THE BIG IF…IF those Western Pacific Waters get warmer as they are forecast to, will those warm waters translate east to affect the 3.4 temps? If this occurs, then we COULD see the El Nino conditions strengthen. This may be why the CPC made the statement on the last bullet on page 29 about El Nino “possibly strengthening during the next few months”
To answer your “2nd” question, you are looking at the September 20 “3 month outlook” & I no longer think that this outlook is valid. If you look at the October 9 6-10 & 8-14 days outlooks as linked below, you will see how things are changing. I would wait til the next 3 month outlook comes out & see what it says. Still think temps will be closer to normal as compared to average with above normal precip. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
I concurn, Allan. I haven’t watched TWC in several years, and it’s been probably 5+ years or more since I went there regularly for weather info on their website. I maybe go there 3 or 4 times a year now, mainly if someone is linking to their site. I just simply don’t care for what they’ve become. Same sort of goes for Accuweather, I don;t really see their information as all that accurate. It’s the NWS/NOAA sites, and the Weather Journal. Plus, a variety of other sites that post various weather models.
It’s starting to get breezy up here in Blacksburg by the airport. Plus, clouds have moved in, quickly.
The front is getting close! John already mentioned the increase in cloud cover and winds. Here’s the visible satellite with wind barbs. Today’s post (and my last) will be up shortly!
https://twitter.com/KathrynProciv/status/256079875079811073/photo/1