UPDATE 5:20 PM, 10/18: Fast-moving cold front brings chance of brief but windy showers/few storms on Thursday
UPDATE 5:20 PM: A line of showers and storms is moving eastward through the Interstate 77 corridor toward the New River and Roanoke valleys, with individual cells in the line moving northward to northeastward. While moisture and instability are somewhat lacking, strong winds aloft provide the potential for any shower or storm cell in this line to provide brief gusty winds. The line may diminish or break up soon as it advances eastward. Follow the latest Radar / Future Cast for the location of storms and any warnings that may be issued. END UPDATE
UPDATE 9 AM: Not surprisingly, the line of showers that was once a mighty squall line near the Mississippi River has washed out advancing east through the mountains. While the Storm Prediction Center has lifted the slight risk zone it had earlier over most of Virginia, it is possible this line of convection will resurge later today, mainly to our east, where shear may support a threat of high winds or even an isolated tornado or two. Also, there is a possibility of new showers or storms firing along the lagging cold front to our west later this afternoon and evening. Moisture and instability are lacking, so it doesn’t look like a widespread severe weather situation or even rainfall, but be aware of the possibility of brief, perhaps windy passing showers with some thunder possible. END UPDATE
The snowfall prediction contest is under way. I’m accepting entries through Nov. 8. Specific instructions (no different than last 3 years) are at the bottom of the column linked here.
Another in the series of fast-moving cold fronts is on its way. This one is so fast moving, it’s actually going to arrive 12-24 hours BEFORE early-week projections, and that means during the day Thursday. As it pushes through, the lift and shear with the front may provide some opportunity for windy showers or even a brief strong storm or two, likely late morning or early afternoon in Southwest Virginia. The Storm Prediction Center has colored all of Virginia except the far southwest and southeast corners in a slight risk of severe weather for Thursday, mainly for the potential of strong winds. The severe risk will definitely be greatest to our east, where more sunshine and a warmer, more unstable atmosphere will have a better chance of pumping storms up high into the atmosphere. For Southwest Virginia, a relatively thin, quick-moving line of showers is likely, with some strong gusts of wind possibly brought down to the surface. Moisture is lacking, so it’s not likely we’ll see as much rain as we did Monday. Also, this is the kind of system that has a decent chance of entirely jumping the Blue Ridge, which means a line of showers may break up crossing the mountains and then redevelop as a stronger squall line, or scattered thunderstorms, to the east in the Piedmont. Bottom line: A brief period of windy showers is possible Thursday, likely near midday, with a couple rumbles of thunder not out of the question, but it won’t be a total shock if it jumps over us.
This front will once again reinforce the sunny, dry cool mornings/mild afternoons (30s-low 40s lows, 60s highs) weather pattern through the weekend. We could be getting a little more toward the warm side of normals (70s highs, 40s-low 50s lows) by early next week.
October 17, 2012 - 5:25 PM
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Zach, thanks very much for posting that link to the State of No. Carolina website. However, the one storm that I wanted to read up on, and it did happen in what is considered by most people to be winter, was the “Ash Wednesday Nor’easter” of early March 1962. Because none of the precip was frozen along the Outer Banks, nary a word on it. What a shame.
I bet at least three other people (and possibly school children), and possibly a whole lot more than that, are gonna pick the same date as I will for the first snow date. Nick knows what date that is ….
1950 and NCEP…
Interesting state by state tidbits for the late November
storm on 1950..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Appalachian_Storm_of_November_1950
Haha, yes Doug, I certainly do! But I will not pick it!
Nick, if that is the date you want to choose, then pick it. Seriously. As I said above, I feel very confident that quite a few other folks will be choosing it.
Meanwhile, to the baseball playoffs!! St Louis has a 3-1 lead in Game 3 vs. the SF Giants, bottom of the 7th. NY Yankees and their so far Punch-and-Judy hitters are waiting to take on the Detroit Tigers in Detroit in Game 4 and win and at least delay elimination for one more day.
Why am I mentioning these things on a weather blog? Because both games are being delayed because of heavy rain. Looks like the St. Louis game may finally resume soon, because the rain is ending there (again, if radar is accurate). The NYY-Detroit game will be at least delayed for quite a while, with what appears to be heavy rain streaming into the Motor City. If the rain takes its sweet time in DET, I wonder if they might even postpone it.
Loving this beautiful weather this evening! Seems like the leaves are really starting to take off and change color! Windy Gap is just glorious with color this year.
Anyone checking out WDBJ7′s Weatherfest this weekend? I saw the VT Storm Chasers on the list of exhibits/information…didn’t know if that meant any students from this summer’s chase will be there…
Gotta love October weather when the series starts up. If memory serves, this may be the first time that both the ALCS & NLCS have both been rain delayed on the same night. I could be wrong.
Just as I was going to say something about rain delays, lo & behold, last time both series were delayed by rain was 1986 according to Fox Sports. Off to research this, don’t think that is right.
St. Louis and Detroit are both being affected by the same cold front that will push toward us on Thursday. They’re closer to the strong low-pressure system, so getting more of a general rain wrapped in than we will.
Farther south, numerous supercells and some tornadoes in Arkansas, moving into Tennessee and Mississippi.
Roanoke and SWVA…
Enjoy your drink of water in the am…
GFS shows after this passes 7-10 days of
October blue skies and dark starry nights.
Hope all the leaves dont blow off tomorrow.
A few weak systems will ride the US Canadian border
next week…but high pressure will dominate over the Mid Atlantic.
Moon is a young sliver..Bee Bopp Bi-Dopp Carol..be sure to look west just after
sunset..or even just before…will likely be a pretty fingernail for you evening gazers.
Hey, Kevin, which areas in Mississippi are being affected by the twisters? Not Vicksburg nor Natchez, I assume. Wait, both of those cities are on the border with Louisiana, not ARK. ………… In the immortal words of Emily Littella, “Never mind.”
Quags, the league championships in 1986 were between Boston and California (Anaheim) in the AL, and the NY Mets and Houston in the NL. So if there were simultaneous rain delays then, had to be games scheduled in Beantown and New Yuck. Houston played in the Astrodome back then, and it did not rain in Anaheim.
Hi, Amanda, how have you been? I agree with you somewhat. When I came home from work today, the western side of Sugar Loaf Mntn (the side facing our house) had a lot more color than just two days ago. It was 41 here this early morn, so that probably helped.
Kevin…this is for u…
Ice above Walnut Ridge and Fort Smith in current system.
ARG UA /OV ARG135020/TM 2325/FL140/TP BE9L/TA M04/TB MOD/IC LGT
RIME/RM ZME=
FSM UA /OV FSM045040/TM 2140/FL200/TP BE9L/TA M08/IC LGT RIME/RM
ZME=
FSM UA /OV FSM045040/TM 2140/FL200/TP BE9L/TA M08/IC LGT RIME/RM ZME=
14000 ft and 20000ft by small aircraft…light to moderate rime icing
moderate turbulence by first acft.
Well, Stankee fans, you can breathe a bit easier. Your team staved off elimination tonight, without even playing an inning. Game was rained out (according to espn.com). Most valuable “player” for the NYY was the weatherman.
Joe: That would explain some reports of small hail in the more modest storms behind the main line crossing the Mississippi.
Doug: Northern Mississippi is being affected, close to Memphis.
Earlier, a tight rotation couplet actually passed directly over the Memphis radar site, near Millington. Here’s what it looked like (different colors are rain moving away and toward the radar)
http://pic.twitter.com/GCr22F6X
Not at all sure of that Kevin/..
We get quite a lot of of rime ice reports
especially in the fall and winter,,
Its not usually associated with hail at the surface.
Its mostly in stratiform clouds…not so much thunder scenarios.
I was mainly noting the relatively low freezing levels at the back side of the precipitation. I’m presuming those levels may extend into the back part of the storms. There were some small hail reports out of storms that didn’t seem likely to produce them, well behind the big action.
Glad to hear that there will be clear skies once this front passes through. Don’t forget to get out and watch for the meteor showers this weekend. The viewing should be great.
Hey, The Weather Channel has been taking a beating from a bunch of us recently. But I argue that some of their 30-minute and one-hour shows are terrific. There was one at 5 PM, today, which I watched parts of. Four reporters decided to remain on the Mississippi coastline as Hurricane Camille hits!! Some awesome photographs, with some video.
Towns of Bay St. Louis, Gulfport, Biloxi, etc. were all hit very, very hard. US 90 impassable. No wonder. On October 3rd Nancy and I drove most of the Miss. coastline along US 90, and I have never seen a U.S. highway so close to the beach. Tide was about halfway in as I remember it, but it (the high-tide water mark) must be within a few yards of the highway. Storm came ashore just before midnight on August 17, 1969, same time as Woodstock was happening. I think that the video claimed that people who survived hunkered in wherever they were and the sounds were like dozens of banshees on steroids (OK, that was slightly my exaggeration, but one survivor did mention banshees), then those that could get some sleep woke up to a sunny calm day with light winds …. and a landscape that looked like a nuclear blast had gone off.
One more piece of trivia …. the eye was 12 miles wide!!!
Not surprisingly, the line of showers has just about entirely washed out heading eastbound into far southwest Virginia. At some point later today we’ll probably see a resurgence. I think it will be east of the Blue Ridge, though.
GFS showed it doing exactly that yesterday Kevin..
Early morning curse with quick moving systems.
Maybe Charlottesville or Richmond- Raleigh boundry later?
Yep, Joe, unless something new can develop along the lagging cold front still in Ky. Weather service seems to think this will happen, I’m not so sure. Looks like best dynamics lift north and best lift pushes east. Moisture, instability marginal everywhere.
Glad I discussed the potential “Blue Ridge jump” in my original post!
We get an awful lot of these jumpers…they annoy me, especially since we still could use additional rain.
Blue Ridge Jump=Goochland Grab on to something and hold.
Even though the SPC has the threat down for VA down, still may get something in this part of the Commonwealth.
Those PIREPS Joe posted last night sounds like the report could have been behind the line of storms in the overhangs. Pretty Doubtful that a King Air Pilot would penetrate nights line of storms, even though most King Airs have weather radar on board. But like Joe said, welcome to Icing season in the CONUS.
Kevin and all,
Just sent in my snow contest entry: Roanoke 21, Blacksburg 26, Dec 20 for both sites for first 1 inch snow. Just for fun here are my past 12 winters of snowfall observations in South Roanoke City, elevation 1500:
2000-01 8
2001-02 5
2002-03 31
2003-04 23
2004-05 20
2005-06 13
2006-07 3
2007-08 5
2008-09 12
2009-10 46
2010-11 15
2011-12 8
Average 15.75
Thanks for this site, Kevin, and all you wonderful bloggers out there!
Steve: Interesting that the new 30-year norms (1981-2010) for Roanoke have been adjusted to 16.7 inches for normal snowfall. Long-term over a century, it’s close to 18 inches. These numbers are more realistic for “normal” snowfall than the 2 feet that is often cited based on mixing in the extremely snowy 1960s in the equation.
Cloudy now over ROA but looks like a big break heading this way (now passing I-77 line)…the next bank of big clouds behind that by 100 miles or so which is the southern edge of the rain in the Ohio Valley. So maybe a bit of sun this afternoon with some spotty chances of rain later.
No sun here in Greene as of yet, so guessing we wont see any storms or showers here. Suppose to be 70s today but so far only 53.
Was just going to comment about the cloudiness even before I saw Paul and Jared’s comments. This dense, wedge-like overcast (winds are SE, banking moisture against the mountains) certainly isn’t going to promote much instability. Showers aren’t out of the question because of the lift of the front, but storms would be unlikely where temperatures don’t get reasonably close to 70.
The visible satellite shows the clouds breaking west of I-77 corridor — but SE winds may keep them banking against the Blue Ridge til the front can clear it all out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/rnk/vis-l.jpg
Radar shows showers redeveloping along the front in eastern Ky., but a lot of the movement is northward with the rotation of the low in the Upper Midwest.
I was up on Bent Mt. around 9:30 this morning to pick up a bushel of apples and a 50# bag of cabbage and you could tell the wedge was moving in. Got back and looked at the wind. SE. Top of mountaun has has clouds/fog at the peaks on and off since. 60.1* rite now for the high so far.
Anyone in Roanoke stopping by WDBJ7′s WeatherFest on Saturday? Looks like some neat stuff and exhibits going on so I may hang around and see a few of the weather presentations.
Radar in WV and now Eastern TN starting to light up with what SPC calling “robust” cells. Main motion of these cells to the NE with slight overall motion to the East but not very fast E so may not make it to the ROA Valley.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2076.html
NOAA just issued their winter outlook. So much for El Nino
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20121018_winteroutlook.html
Will discuss further later following Lesson 4
Quag’s Winter Weather Lesson 4 – Winter Storms
This week, let’s talk about Winter Weather Storms & Patterns.
If you have been a lurker of weather blogs, then you have probably heard this all before and this serves as a great review for the upcoming season.
The last 2 winters or so have produced a couple of good storms for the East Coast (sans the doughnut hole for VA) even in a La Nina event & 2009-10 produced some Big Uns in the last El Nino. So, do you know what a Cyclogenesis Miller A or Miller B Winter Storm is? Nor’easters? Overrunning? Alberta Clipper? Northwest Upslope? Lake Effect Snow? Not to worry, again I won’t go into details to save space. For this lesson, here is your reference material links:
Brouchure from NOAA on Winter Storms
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/wintstm.htm
Stuff from NOAA on types of storms in winter for eastern US
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/2010/12_18/index.php
From NC State University on winter weather patterns
http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/Patterns.php
Berk’s Wintercast Case Study of Historical Winter Storms for PA & Mid-Atlantic
http://berkswintercast.tripod.com/id85.html
The much heralded Heavy Snow Report by Jan Jackson from the Blacksburg NWS Office:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Fall%202006/Climatology_of_Heavy_Snow.htm
Rob Guarino’s blog site:
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=2639&Itemid=179
So what’s this have to do with the upcoming winter? To be honest, we won’t really know until it happens, but with a neutral to a barely very weak El Nino conditions expected, you may as well flip a coin, but weather is always in flux.
One more thing to look at is the Drought Monitor.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/monitor.html
I am firm believer in the more moisture in the soil the greater chances seeing more precipitation. However, if you look at the current DM outlook, the central & western US are still in moderate to extreme drought conditions & the outlook is bleak. The stronger the El Nino, the greater chances of seeing precip. for these drought stricken regions. More importantly, the western 2/3 of the US needs rain & snow this winter in the baddest way. The point here is that if El Nino fades to a neutral ENSO or even goes back to La Nina, the drought conditions could become worse. Not good.
IF the PNA remains negative, my earlier prediction for a slightly cooler & wetter October will bust. November will be above average on temps with below normal precip. From December on, the forecast is now up in the air.
I will update the winter forecast from December 1 to April 1 before Turkey Day. Folks to be honest here, it’s not looking favorable for a snowy winter in the east right now, but this is October.
See next comment for the Quiz
Quag’s Winter Weather Lesson 4 – Winter Storms
Week 4 quiz…let’s see if you read any of the links.
1. “Blue Norther” is a term that refers to:
a) Blue winter skies in the northwest section of the country.
b) Swift-moving cold front in the Great Plains.
c) Big tides in the northern hemisphere.
d) Fight Song for the University of Michigan.
2. What is an Alberta Clipper?
a) A type of hair clipper sold in Alberta, Canada.
b) A big ship that sank in the Great Lakes.
c) A fast moving snow producing weather system that originates in the Canadian Rockies.
d) A mixed drink
3. What makes a snowstorm a blizzard?
a) It has to last more than 24 hours, leave at least 6 inches of snow on the ground and must be accompanied by wind.
b) Wind speeds have to be at least 32 mph, visibility less then 50 feet from falling or blowing snow, and conditions must last at least 3 hours.
c) Any snowstorm that lasts for more than 12 hours, contains winds, and more than 6 inches of precipitation is a blizzard.
d) If Jim Cantore is live on the Weather Channel and has another “Thundersnow” Orgasm
4. A winter storm warning is issued when:
a) Snow flurries are a definite within 12 to 24 hours.
b) Hazardous winter weather in the form of heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet is imminent or occurring
c) Heavy snow is forecast to arrive within the next 24 hours.
d) The NHL Owners will finally end the lock out and play some Hockey!
5. True or False: Wind chill is based on the rate of heat loss from exposed skin caused by wind and cold.
6. True or False: Freezing rain and sleet are the same thing.
7. What is another name for the first day of winter in the Northern Hemisphere?
a) vernal equinox
b) winter solstice
c) winter equinox
d) Opening Day of Hockey Season
If you would like to see the answers to this quiz, well…you are going to have to wait for Kevin to make an announcement about that.
Mr. Quags, here are my answers! How did I do? I may need to brush up on my general weather knowledge if I miss any since I did all these from memory.
1. b) Swift-moving cold front in the Great Plains.
2. c) A fast moving snow producing weather system that originates in the Canadian Rockies.
3. b) Wind speeds have to be at least 32 mph, visibility less then 50 feet from falling or blowing snow, and conditions must last at least 3 hours.
4. b) Hazardous winter weather in the form of heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet is imminent or occurring
5. True
6. False
7 b) winter solstice
Deep layer shear over SW Virginia right now is 70-90 knots … 40 knots is generally considered the baseline for supercell potential. Instability and moisture are weak, though, or we could be having a severe outbreak. A few rotating cells with brief gusty winds may still be possible.
Hey Doug! Im good…been around, just haven’t commented much
Weather’s been pretty nice… 
I’m really surprised by this line of storms tonight…kinda expected this east of us, not west. It just doesn’t feel like severe weather out – thank goodness the instability today is relatively low. I’ll never forget the derecho in June for many reasons but one is just how dangerous the air felt, even that morning. It just felt like something was brewing.
Front hung up west of us instead of slamming on through.
Most of the stronger cells in the line have lifted north or weakened. The more southern part of the line is looking ragged. It’s not making much progress eastward.
Checked out some instability parameters earlier, and CAPE — a measure of instability — was under 500 for most of our region, except west of I-77. 500 is usually the baseline for marginal severe potential. Shear is present in abundance, and lift is there, but moisture and instability are sorely lacking. Can’t bake a pie without the ingredients for the dough.
Quags…
Its just me…but taking up that sort of space
in someone elses blog doesnt seem that kosher to me.
Perhaps that sort of thing might be better for a
seperate (personal) blog.?
NWS had thunder vcnty in ROA forecast till 23z which is past..
I dont see it happening..its crawling along the west side of the mountains
..drying out rapidly PSK and SW…Looks like Greenbriar Valley got a bit of it..sprinkle I think at best for ROA Valley…More likely broken clouds
moving off quickly as front passes.
Joe…
Kevin will have something to say about that later on.
You just may like it or at least I hope you will.
Just walking outside and feeling how cool and clammy it feels, I would quickly say there won’t be any thunder here tonight. (And it was already sprinkling just a bit).
This outta get better as it goes. I’ll shore stay tuned to this one.
Also starting to see telltale signs of the “Blue Ridge jump” with storm line dying out to west and new storms firing out in Piedmont. Some pretty heavy cells in Bedford County, but most of them farther east.
Hope to find some pics of this. The Dust Bowl is back …
http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268748/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=lUDBCYCz
Nice day today if you like clouds most of the day.Low this morning 45 high so far 65.Moderate to heavy rain the last hour here,down to 59 now.Just west out in West Va heavy storms moving this way!Mike
Ben G., I am going to try to catch the last few minutes of the Weatherfest. I probably have to work until 3:30 tomorrow, unless we have a light-volume day and there are enough other carriers to take care of the other routes, in which case I might be able to get off a few minutes early. I would have about a 10-minute drive to get there. In case any of you are planning to attend, I was told that parking will be free and in the big parking lot for Burlington Coat and the one or two other businesses there.
I will mention WeatherFest on my next blog update (letting Channel 7 handle most of their own promotions), but do note that Saturday is the day for the general public. Friday is for school classes.
Regarding the line of rain and thunder that seems to have missed the Roanoke valley (and perhaps lots of other places in SW Virginia), it wasn’t so much of a “jumper” as a “slider;” it just slid on by first to our west and then to our north. When I looked at radar both on “7″ plus my own computer, the thought struck me …. we could use a blogger who checks in regularly (as in once in a while) and who lives in Smyth County. We have the super farmer M. Hoback in Washington County (and once in a blue moon Eva …. are you still out there, E-gal? I read one of your comments last night from the evening of January 26th, 2011, when I went off the deep end), and clarkdocvet in Woodlawn, and Rick in Wythe County, but I am not aware of anyone here from Smyth County. Hey, Nurse Snow, how about getting either your parents or a close neighbor from the Saltville area to log in here once in a while?
Hey, nice going, Ben! I agree with all your answers except the one to number 4, the definition of a winter storm warning. I will go with 4c., heavy snow (actually heavy ice counts, too, I think) within 24 hours. Tornado warning is for imminent/occurring conditions, but I have a feeling that WSW is a little different on the timing.
Wind chill USED to be calculated on how quickly exposed skin cools under differing temp and wind combinations, but maybe they changed it. But I will agree with a true answer to number 5.
Article in today’s RT about the postponement of the NYY-Detroit MLB playoff game in Detroit last night. Rain didn’t fall for quite a while even though the game was delayed from starting, and never did start. At least an hour (might have been 90 or more minutes!) after the scheduled 8:07 PM (or something close to that) start time.
wd, you’re gonna love the following, I bet. If that game was being played 50 years ago, they would have started the game and played until it started raining, or at least until the rain was within 2 or 3 miles. I remember looking at the radar in the SE Michigan area, and it reminded me very much of what happens here in SW Virginia sometimes, especially in late spring and summer. Intense band of showers or even tstorms heads up the I-81 corridor, but gets stopped cold or at least for quite a while and sometimes loses most of its energy around Wytheville.
The entire band of rain last night was moving ENE, right at D-city, but the leading edge was hardly making any progress.
NON-weather comment. By the way, the Yankees are history. Got swept for the first time in a postseason series since the 1976 World Series vs. Cinci. What a shame ….
Quags, thanks very much for posting the link to NOAA’s winter outlook. Nice to see that they have fallen into line with you and me and Rick …. very likely to have no El Nino. I was going to wait for KM’s winter outlook in about 12 days or so, but I will say right now that I agree for a change with a weather organization’s outlook. I think that this winter will be roughly normal for temps throughout SW Virginia. I wonder if Accuweather (and what about “WeatherBell?” Isn’t that where Joe “Storm of the Century” B. is working now?) will amend its winter outlook now?
Oh, how did I forget the following!? CONGRATS, OTHER JOHN!! OJ is a Detroit Tigers fan.
DFW…
At the ranch at sundown..observation says 68f…
sure doesnt feel like it to bare arms. Winds felt almost calm to me
But obs said 330 at 7 knots…out of the NW.
d/p 31f…sooo dry. Watching contrails at altitude
over the Boys Ranch duck pond. They wisp and disappear quickly.
Air is dry as a chip at cruising altitude overhead.
Moon is growing..1/16 or so tonight..will be setting soon.
Temps similar ROA now to what we have here.
Couldnt smell wood smoke here or applebutter…just a few kids chasing balls , dogs barking, and the pit pat of the occasional runner.
October…exhale…earth…rest.
Just received a nice 10 minute rain, better then nothing I suppose. DT said his winter forecast would be out Wednesday, however its Thursday night and no sign of it! Guess he could say he meant next Wednesday. Really could use much more rain up this way, but looks like dry on the 10 day and pretty warm also. Ugh!
And joe, congrats to you for the 7:19 PM call. Never rained here nor at Valley View Mall where Nancy was this evening for a meeting.
Severe threat picking up east of the Blue Ridge.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2078.html
Hey, Steve Murray, a big TYVM to you for those snowfall totals at your house since 2001. Do you have specific data showing how much fell and on which dates? I would love to know the dates of all snowfalls during the 2002-03, 2004, and 2005 winters that were 2 or more inches, if you can list them? Or you can e-mail Kevin and ask him to forward them to me.
I would very much like to cross-reference what you got with what the Daily Climate website shows. I do remember the winter of 02-03 having a bunch of snowstorms, so many that several long-time residents of the postal route I was doing couldn’t remember another winter like that one for the sheer number of snowfalls. But I don’t remember the following two winters for being like that. Obviously you get more than downtown ROA, and probably a bit more than I get here at my SW County location …
Oh, and wd, you probably have great records, too …. so feel free to chip in with a list if you are willing.
Oh yeah baby! Another rain coming through and its lasted longer and seems to be heavier then the last! Keep it coming!!
Jared F. (and anyone else who has access to DT) please, please keep us updated on what Dave Tolleris says about this upcoming winter and the chances of El Nino reinvigorating itself. Also if he mentions anything about the polar vortex situation. I consider him really excellent at giving long-range outlooks. Definitely would NOT say that about his short-range snowstorm predictions, at least for SW Virginia.
Here is a bit on what Kevin just mentioned about
the Oklahoma dust.
So far it hasnt reached the Dallas area.
We-ve had a light north wind but the dust has stayed north.
Here are thre last 2 hourly-s from Tulsa..
KTUL 190053Z 29010G20KT 5SM DU CLR 19/M06 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND
29026/0007 SLP098 T01891061=
KTUL 182353Z 29014G23KT 5SM DU CLR 19/M07 A2981 RMK AO2 PK WND
the DU is dust…winds gusting to 20/23 5 miles visibility and dust…note the sky is clear above no ceiling.
Oh sorry…I forgot the link.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/18/oklahoma-dust-storm-_n_1982501.html
The NOAA winter outlook (which I will link with next blog post, also) doesn’t really predict normal conditions for the East. It predicts equal chances of normal, above normal and below normal for both temperature and precipitation. In other words … they don’t know, stumped by the failure of El Nino to develop as expected.
Thought it was a jet, but I have fairly vivid thunder and lightning and it’s starting to rain in central-eastern Franklin County (Redwood VA).
Noted that cell a little bit ago on Twitter. Farthest west of remaining cells. Will skirt just east of Roanoke next 15-30 minutes. Maybe scrapes Garden City and Vinton. More toward Bedford County.
My front porch faces due north and the cell is a little left of that, suggesting it’s heading through western Bedford County and across Peaks of Otter and then Natural Bridge and just east of Lexington. Seems to be pretty healthy for mid-October.
Yes! quite a nice cell that moved from west of Greenesboro
into SW Franklin County…looks like it went near Stuart..
I that already over Redwood?
Looks like its right over RM Boones Mill right now.
Just got a report of some small hail on that cell in western Bedford County.
That storm sure trucked through FC in a hurry! Heavy rain for about 10 minutes, definitely some vivid lightning. .25″ in the gauge, as best as I can tell.
I think that hail may have come out of the cell ahead of the one now in F/C…
I think that cell is now east of LYH
Have seen some lightning flashes to the east of Bonsack.
Looks like the radar is lagging a bit… I was watching the cell on the radar and the rain came earlier than it showed on the radar, and it shows it still raining hard. It’s raining a bit yes, but I can’t hear it unless I stick my head outside.
Hail was in western Bedford County — it was out of the cell that booked it out of Franklin County. That’s what 60-knot storm-relative anvil-level winds will do !
That makes sense Kevin..and Amanda..
My radar is lagging about 15 minutes too it seems..
That cell really screamed through F/C.
Looked like it rained hard btwn RM and Bedford County.
Winds out of the south at 30000ft..over 100 knots.
Jetstream is making a sharp northward turn over NC/VA
The “Blue Ridge jump” — or maybe the “Blue Ridge slide” as Doug called it — really shows up on the estimated storm totals from NWS-Blacksburg radar.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/10/stormtotalradar1018.jpg
Wow, I think the storms lined up and kept running across us up here! Some pretty good storms at that, didn’t hear or see any hail, but the thunder was so intense it seemed to shake the house! Wonderful surprise however because one minute the radar seemed to have a few showers and the next it was a huge line of storms running south to north. Kinda scary because that was the way the storms tracked back in 2004 when the tornado hit the golf course!
Wind shear is very similar to April 2011 tornado outbreak. May be even a little higher, at least right over SW Virginia. Instability, deep-layer moisture aren’t nearly as high. That’s what kept this from being a major severe weather day. Any time you see storms moving like the one that raced across Franklin County tonight, that’s a yellow flag for potential severe weather. Not quite a red flag.
Wow, big weather doin’s just south and east of here (and way NE, too, up Jared’s way). If we were in a drought or even a prolonged dry spell here, this would have me ticked off, because zippo rain here. Now? No biggie.