We’re back to the classic October weather we’ve been having, with mild to warm days (60s/70s) and cool to chilly nights (30s/40s) and remaining dry through at least Thursday. There are some major questions about how much moisture the next front late Thursday or Friday will be able to lift northward and squeeze out. We’ll wait for some later details on how that pans out. Part of the issue is that the series of lows moving through the central U.S. are steadily pulling farther northwest on their tracks (Thursday’s weather map linked here), and that means less direct influence in lifting moisture. It also illustrates a broader development with the weather pattern, and that is the tendency over the next two weeks for temperatures to gradually warm, at least relative to normal. While we will have periodic cold fronts moving through, the air is become less of Arctic origin and more of Pacific origin. This is the because of the negative Pacific-North America pattern (PNA), which indicates a jet stream dip in the Pacific northwest, rising northeastward into Canada. The “icicles” hanging below the line on the far right side of the graf at the left are indicative of projected negative values in the PNA over the next 10 days, which show an expected continuation of this pattern. This will likely lead to continued low-pressure tracks well to our northwest, periodic frontal passages that merely reinforce the mild to cool weather rather than introduce intense cold from the Arctic, and warmups in between the fronts that could take temperatures above normal into the 70s at times. Keep in mind that normal highs and lows are continuing to decline rather rapidly this time of year through the 60s for highs and 40s for lows, so even a similar temperature pattern as we’ve seen that has been near or somewhat below normal in early October could be above normal in late October. Don’t expect a blazing summerlike heat wave, but at least some warm weather relative to normal as we move through the latter half of October.