UPDATE MIDNIGHT, 10/4: I’m going on vacation — welcome Kathryn Prociv as guest blogger for a few days
UPDATE MIDNIGHT, 10/4: Expect a warm, dry day Friday with highs in the mid 70s to near 80, and Saturday may be similar. The cold front will begin to push toward us late Saturday and Sunday with rain a good bet. Cold air comes in behind it for some chilly mornings early to mid next week. I’ll leave the details to my fill-in through Wednesday, Kathryn Prociv — her posts will be put up in the early to mid afternoon most days. I plan to be back on the blog next Thursday. Kathryn, the keys to the blog are yours … END UPDATE
We’re about to do something totally new on Weather Journal for the next six days. There will be a guest blogger filling in for me while I go on vacation, Friday through Wednesday. I haven’t had any totally “unplugged” off time in 3 years. I think it’s time for a break from the Internet, blogging, tweeting, etc., especially considering that we’ll soon be entering what, for a weather blogger in Southwest Virginia, is the prime season. When I’ve been out in the past, years ago, I’ve shut the blog down for a little while. There were fewer of you viewing and commenting back then. Let’s try something different.
Kathryn Prociv will be filling in for me during my off time. Kathryn researched tornadoes in the Appalachians — click here for articles I wrote near the start of her research, and then after it was completed — for her geography master’s degree thesis at Virginia Tech. She currently teaches an introductory meteorology course at Tech. Kathryn has ridden approximately 20,000 miles — the Earth’s circumference at the equator is almost 25,000 miles, for some comparison — over the last 3 years with me in the van I have driven during the annual Virginia Tech storm chase trips (here is a pic of Kathryn and a severe storm), serving as my radar operator and a student chase leader. She has been my meteorological eyes and ears when my attention had to be on the road. You don’t spend that much time inside cramped vans and discussing life over usually very quick meals (fast-food Mexican is a mutual favorite of ours on the road) without getting to know one another very well. That’s why I have the confidence in Kathryn to take Weather Journal for the next 6 days, generally following what we normally do here, but adding her own personal flair. Those on Twitter who follow @KathrynProciv know she already follows weather closely and sends out some interesting “tweets” about meteorological topics. I hope you will welcome her and converse with her in the comments as you do with me. You may like her better than me. Be aware that the blogging/commenting process will be going through a third party on our already very busy online team — Kathryn will not be writing or approving comments on the blog directly — so be patient if it seems a little slow at times.
Kathryn has the chance to attain folk hero status with Weather Journal snow fans if she can coax eastward what some models are showing for this weekend in West Virginia. After a couple of days of warmer than normal, dry weather Thursday and Friday, a strong cold front will approach our region late Saturday and early Sunday. It will kick up some showers and possibly thunderstorms ahead of it. Behind it, the coldest air of the season so far will rush in, possibly early enough to change some rain to snow in the mountains of West Virginia by early Sunday. I wouldn’t entirely rule out a few flakes making it above 3,000 feet in the western fringe of Virginia, but this probably will stay just to our west. The chief result for us will the potential for widespread frost by Monday morning, with widespread lows in the 30s possible, and perhaps some 20s. I’ll let Kathryn keep you up to date on the snow and frost potential over the weekend, and looking ahead to what the pattern has in store next week and beyond.
October 3, 2012 - 10:54 PM
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Enjoy your much deserved break Kevin! Welcome Kathryn, looking forward to your posts.
Thank you! Very much looking forward to covering the weather blog for Kevin while he takes a much deserved vacation. I hope you all enjoy my posts, and I can’t wait to converse with everyone!
Welcome Kathryn to our motly crew..let us entertain you and vice versa!! Have fun Kevin as you and yours deserve it. I’m heading to a football game in Raleigh sat night and my wife is off to Nashville TN on a girls trip this weekend so ill be keeping an eye on the weather in several places!!
I will still be on here through Thursday. On Friday, this is Kathryn’s playground.
Clarkdocvet: Both of those locations you named, plus our own backyard, will be affected by the same cold front over the weekend. It’s just a matter of timing and figuring out how much moisture and lift there is along different portions of it.
Welcome, Kathryn! Already follow you guys on the VT Meteorology Facebook page and I see and enjoy the good stuff posted there all the time. I have no doubt the blog will be in good hands while Kevin enjoys his much needed break.
Welcome to the Weather Journal family, Kathryn! This is, in my opinion, the best blog community out there. Looking forward to your contributions!
SNOW. The first hint of it since spring in “our area” on the GFS clown map, up in the Snowshoe and Elkins area……….coming up on the weekend.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Kevin, while you are investigating ways to get help, make sure your IT guys at Roanoke.com appreciate that you are generating some fairly high volume during what is relatively benign weather. They may need to make sure you have an extra server devoted before any real threat of snow moves in. Enjoy your vacation.
Kevin- Enjoy your much deserved vacation!! Welcome Kathryn!! I read this blog every morning and during the “snow season” …. About 100 times a day- don’t judge
Welcome aboard Kathryn! Thank you for volunteering to fill in for KM.
Kevin, enjoy your much deserved break. We will be good while you are gone.
Welcome Kathryn! We are a friendly lot here on the weather journal.
Kevin: Go unplug and enjoy your family!!!
Welcome Kathryn, I’m a snow lover and visit this site often in the winter months to see how much “snowtime” I’ll get with my kids ages 6,4,and 1!
Maybe you’ll be our snow fairy this winter!:) I’m hoping for 50+ inches like a few years ago!
Go get ‘em Kathryn!
Hi Kathryn,
I have been a fan of this blog for years and read it daily. I wanted to welcome you. I have told you for a while I was going to post someday and here it is
This is where I get all my weather updates!
Tina
Sounds like you guys better get that “first snow” contest in place in a hurry! lol Enjoy your break Kevin!
Good morning everyone! Wow I’m floored by all the nice welcome comments! I have big shoes to fill while Kevin is gone, so I hope expectations aren’t too high haha. I’ve heard great things from Kevin about his followers so I’m really looking forward to chatting with you all. I’m also happy to hear that some of you follow the VT Meteorology page where I often post interesting articles as “KP.” For the snow lovers out there, if we see the first snowflakes this weekend you can most definitely call me the snow fairy! Sounds much nicer than the “rain” fairy
Where is the sunshine, you ask? Satellite shows the clearing line slowly advancing eastward, still west of I-77.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/rnk/vis-l.jpg
And Nadine is finally expired after 21.75 days, the 5th-longest lasting tropical cyclone on record in the Atlantic basin:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/041438.shtml?
And from soon-to-be guest blogger Kathryn Prociv on Twitter, a look at the cold front coming to knock our temperatures down:
https://twitter.com/KathrynProciv/status/253868217511063552/photo/1
Enjoy your break Kevin! If you don’t mind me asking, where are you going? Beach or maybe a mountain getaway? Maybe your starring in the film being shot in Giles called “Wish you well”. Glad your replacement is a lovely Hokie gal. LOL better watch out she might take your day job. Glad to have you Kathryn!
Welcome Kathryn! We are definitely a friendly bunch around here! I’m a definite snow lover!!! You will soon hear about the TWLS (those who love snow). We come together in hoardes during the winter season LOL
Kevin, enjoy your break! Unplug, enjoy the wife and son and have a great time!
Welcome Kathryn!! Hope you enjoy spending time with us weather geeks!
I think Kathryn is quite used to hanging out with weather geeks!
Jared: You’ve never called me “lovely.”
Kevin, Doesn’t this map say a lot about the fall and early winter from the CPC? To me, this projected major drought improvement in the Oklahoma to Indiana swath, speaks of LOWS moving west the Appalachians. That would be needed to clear out that area of severe drought. That would mean a warm fall and early winter and not much snow in December…..kinda, right?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif
Enjoy your vacation Kevin.
Thank you for calling me “lovely” Jared! I am definitely a Hokie girl all the way. There’s no place I’d rather be than hanging out with fellow geeks so this is going to be great! Lovers of snow, I hear ya!
Welcome KP.
A quick note on leaf drop. Here at the house[1800'+] leaves have covered the roads. Never saw them drop this early and have as many green leaves on the trees with very little color mixed in. Shows what the trees did when they were so stressed during July. Meaning, putting any available moisture into the tree and roots at the expense of the leaves.
Geeks? Who said we were geeks?
Maybe I should have said “amateur weather geeks”
Brandon, I’m a geek all the way…through and through…and proud of it!
For all you snow lovers, snow has already fallen northwest in the Dakota’s I think. Kathryn is my daughter, be kind to her and enjoy all she has to say about weather. She lives for the weather!
We seem to incrimate ourselves by the company we keep
Kevin, you remind me more of Jeremiah Johnson (mountain man).
Kathryn, I got my degree in Agronomy from VT in 1998 and work as an assistant superintendent on a golf course. Weather is a big part of my job and I was always lnterested in it growing up. So your studying Tornadoes in the mountains, can you tell me how many have occurred in my former home county of Giles?
Whether you’re an amateur or professional weather geek Kevin and I accept everyone!
Jared you’re right in that weather is a very important component for your line of work! I checked the National Climatic Data Center record site and no tornadoes in Giles County at least through 2006. I have a feeling that goes back even further though! In my research regarding tornadoes in the Appalachians, I didn’t find any historical records for recorded/confirmed tornadoes in Giles County.
Welcome Kathryn and thank you for filling in. I am not sure what we would have done if Kevin had been forced to shut down the blog while he was gone. Kevin: Enjoy it!
Looks like Montgomery Ala may be tweaking their Doppler..
Its gone now…but last radar update there showed big donut ring
around them…beware the perfectly round spoking and double ringed returns.
…BTW.. Orange and Maroon greetings to you Ms Prociv!!
Kevin, enjoy your time off and welcome to Kathryn to the blog. I blog in from time to time from Blackwell Chapel, VA, a small community in eastern Washington Co near Saltville. Maybe you will get the first reports of snow flurries while Kevin is off. I am sure we will keep you busy.
A special hello to Kathryn’s mom, Joanne, who is well known in Tech storm chase circles for the meatball subs she often greets chase crews returning from the Plains with upon our return.
KP, are you really prepared for what you’re letting yourself in for in the event anybody reports so much as a random flake?
One report of 14 inches of snow near Badger, Minnesota, today.
But the Weather Channel didn’t name the storm.
Kevin,hope you have a great vacation!Welcome Kathryn glad your here.I`m upset had to cut the A.C.back on Tuesday had been off since Sept 8th,but it has been 80 last 2 days,oh well colder air coming late Saturday evening.Only went down to 66 this morning,high 80.Dew points up here have been summerlike.Everyone have a great weekend.
Kevin@43 Wow that’s a lot of snow! Maybe TWC could name it the Honey Badger storm of fall 2012? Have a great vacation, welcome Kathryn!
Mike
Thank you everyone! I am a bit scared should a report of snowflakes come in, but I’m confident we’ll all get through that together! I seriously appreciate all the kind words. Mike I agree in the last couple days have definitely NOT felt like October with the warm temperatures and high dewpoints making it downright sticky (even at night!). I’m definitely ready for some cooler air!
Looks like the season’s first “Alberta clipper” will move SE early to mid next week. It’ll be far north of us, but will drag a reinforcing cold front through.
Hey Kevin, if the first snow flakes come while Kathryn is on board we may have to make her a co-conspirator with you. She may be our good luck charm for thecoming winter snows. Guess this is putting some heavy duty pressure on her to perform for us bloggers. Don’t worry Kathryn, we will not hold anything against you. If things don’t work out, we will blame Kevin since he will be out of sight and sound for a while.
Well Kathryn…its coming…
the clipper is just clipping…Duluth doesn’t have
snow in the fcst..and Minneapolis doesnt have any now..
but its 44f in MSP dp 28f..winds W gusting to 24kts..
Find your fuzzy slippers.
Kevin – have a wonderful and restful vacation! You’ve certainly earned it putting up with our crazy group.
Welcome KP!
I won’t be on the blog much as I’m going colonial in W-burg Friday, camping, and then some archaeology work at a nearby plantation on Saturday. Dry and sunny until I come back to Hokieburg on Saturday night. I’m debating whether my lucky socks on gameday are still lucky….;)
Snow ho ho…
Heres a bit from Grand Forks ND..
http://www.wday.com/event/article/id/69641/group/Weather/
From Doug Griggs in Daphne, Alabama:
“Welcome aboard, Kathryn. I am one of about 3 people on this blog who is a snow hater, and it is because of my job. I am a city letter carrier in Roanoke, and snow that piles up and sticks around causes our job to be much tougher. But the snow lovers can have all the fun they want to this time of year. Including you. Most of the time most of the snow lovers put up with me, for which I am grateful.
“Mike in Marshall and the rest of you in the Old Dominion, I am getting a taste of what it must be like to live here. Here it is Oct. 4th, and today’s high/low for Daphne (just east of Mobile) was 86/64. We returned back here after supper at 7:30, and according to weather underground, it was 72* then. But it feels about 5* warmer than that. Today was excellent, because it was sunny, the humidity was still OK and there was a breeze. But now it is muggy. I even got to “goof” again, and scored well, thanks to a couple of good breaks. One shot from about 50 yards out hit the flagstick and settled only two feet from the hole. Thank you, golf gods.
“Oh, one more thing, and this IS weather-related. Big time. Quite a few of the greens had poor, ratty appearance, although they putted OK. Reason for the damage to the greens? Hurricane Isaac!! The golf course got about 9 inches of rain then, and some other areas got about 12.”
The article Joe posted from Grand Forks TV station declares in the 1st paragraph that the snow was “an unwelcome sight.” Seems kinda presumptive to me.
Maybe Kevin..but u have to consider the factor of 2..
Roanoke 3 months of snow.
“Honey” Badger Minn 5 or 6 months.
I dont like my feet cold and wet for 15 minutes..
So I tip my hat and beer to the “Fargos” that soldier on.
I’m definitely an amateur weather geek…have been since I was a kid. I wanted to study meteorology, even went to NC State to double-major in it and civil engineering…but $$ was a problem, plus the US Navy wouldn’t let me double major anyway. So, I transferred to VT, which didn’t have meteorology…but I took the lone class available when I was a student (00-04), and absolutely loved it. Now I’m a licensed engineer, but I’ve thought of taking some classes in the new program VT established, if any work around my daily work schedule. I’m a Skywarn spotter, and a CoCoRaHS observer too. The weather is, by far, my favorite hobby…following, and playing, sports is a close second.
I totally agree with Kevin, on the North Dakota snow. Grand Forks is in Extreme Drought and I bet the vast majority of folks who own a yard or a farm/ranch want any kind of moisture they can get this fall to help knock that drought down a notch or two.
http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?ND,HP
Nice crisp 40* this morning in Woodlawn,with dense fog…looking forward to some frosty mornings around here in a couple of days!!
Have a great time Kevin. I don’t think many of us could go 3 years without a vacation. And welcome aboard Kathryn. Good to know you’re an avid VT fan. My youngest daughter is enjoying her first semester as a hokie. As of now, she’s majoring in psychology but I would like her to at least develop an interest in meteorology. Like Doug, working outside compels me to not be a “snow lover”. I do like the quiet serenity of the snow but don’t like the consequences of how it affects travel. Hope you enjoy your new home here.
Kevin, enjoy the break. Kathryn, a warm welcome, now bring us some snow.
What a week of being in the sky…This week was Panama & Argentina.
Will be working on Lesson 3-Models which I should have out on Monday.
This week’s quiz will be up later on today. Welcome aboard Kathryn! Glad to see Kevin is taking some R n’ R.
Like many of you, I have been an avid fan of weather since I was a little girl. 6 years old to be exact when I was “accidentally” outside and watched a green funnel cloud go over my head in Dayton, OH (where I grew up). A basic knowledge of meteorology is crucial in my opinion. Even psychology majors can benefit from a basic background in weather. My first blog post should be up shortly. I talk a about the cold front, but I’m going leave the mention of “snow” for tomorrow’s post.
Cheers to Kevin starting is vacation today!
I started with the weather because of Hurricane Gloria in 1985. I was 5 years old, and we had to evacuate from Virginia Beach. Oddly, where we wound up taking safe haven inland, the storm was worse! I have been hooked on weather ever since. I’ve never seen a tornado or even a funnel cloud, but I’ve been in numerous hurricanes, tropical storms, and nor’easters. Also was in one hellacious wet microburst in Chesapeake in the mid 90′s, while in a Burger King across from Chesapeake General Hospital. The force of the wind was so strong, it ripped the doors off the building between the wind and the intense pressure change. Everyone ducked for cover, I was watching the whole thing. I also had the fortune to be in a very rare Chesapeake Bay-effect snow squall in the 90′s, that dropped a foot of snow where I lived. 3-4 miles on either side of us, sunny.