Making my cool, perhaps frosty, return to the blog … with a few pictures of some valley fog (don’t expect KP-like rhymes like that all the time)
Once again, my thanks to Kathryn Prociv for her marvelous job of filling in on the Weather Journal blog during my 5-day break. And thanks to everyone for helping her feel right at home here. I, too, hope she’ll be back with some comments from time to time.
Several days ago on a clear, chilly morning, frequent Weather Journal commenter Doug Griggs made a field trip to Burkes Garden in Tazewell County, the crater-like geological formation that is frequently the coldest spot in Southwest Virginia when radiational cooling conditions (clear skies, calm winds, surface warmth radiating into space) are optimum. If the clouds and winds die down enough — which they most likely will sooner to the west than in the Roanoke and New River valleys, as the calming high pressure system is moving in from the west — Burkes Garden could dip well into the 20s on Thursday morning, with 30s to low 40s possible in most other spots in Southwest Virginia, again IF the clouds break and the winds die down in time. (Even 2-3 hours near sunrise could lead to a precipitous drop in temperatures.) In honor of a potentially chilly morning of radiational cooling, I’m posting some photos Doug sent me from his field trip to Burkes Garden. The foggy valley photo linked here even has his shadow, if you look closely. Linked here and here are a couple of other foggy valley photos from Burkes Garden. There will likely be less fog, but more frost, there come Thursday morning. I’m thinking the Roanoke Valley likely escapes frost, with patchy frost in the New River Valley. Again, the farther west you are (bore out by the National Weather Service’s frost and freeze advisories), and the more in a sheltered valley you are, the more likely you are to see some frost. Frost can sometimes be thick in one location and non-existent over the hill at another spot less sheltered from any remnant breezes behind the cold front passing through tonight. Friday morning may be almost as cold, and more likely to have calm winds.
The weather pattern ahead has lots more cold fronts in it for us — but not the same kind of cold fronts that brought us a record cold early fall day Monday (with snow in West Virginia’s mountains) and potential frost on Thursday morning. Some rearranging is occurring that will lead to a bit more of a west-to-east flow across the country rather than northwest-to-southeast (or even north-northwest to south-southeast, as we’ve seen at times), so the fronts that will pass through Friday, Sunday and beyond will not have intense cold air from near the Arctic, but rather typically autumn cool air from the Pacific and southern Canada. These fronts will also be mostly dry, not dipping down to dig moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico, but rather zipping through from across the dry states west of us (some of which will get a little wetter over the next few days). We are likely entering a prolonged period of mostly dry, sunny days with temperatures close to normal – mild to warm days with highs commonly in the 60s and lower 70s, and cool nights with lows in the 40s to lower 50s, the kind of October weather that often gets the colors turning in Southwest Virginia. The Climate Prediction Center suggests a lean to warmer than normal weather in the next 1-2 weeks as a broad area of low pressure develops over the Rockies, angling some wind flow toward us from the Southwest. Forecast models are not settled in the long range yet, and the negative phases of the North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations suggest the potential for another surge of cold air at some point later this month.
Meanwhile, some of these weather pattern changes may ignite the fall severe weather season — usually, but not always, a shorter, somewhat weaker shadow of its spring cousin — in the central U.S.
October 11, 2012 - 12:11 AM
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41* here. Coldest that I have seen here since early May. Incredibly “twinkly” stars.
I have a question for all of you, as you are far more knowledgeable about the weather than I am. A few weeks ago there was much talk about El Nino and a possibly snowy winter. Now people are saying that there is no El Nino. Does this mean we are likely in for another winter of virtually no snow (like the last couple of years)? I love snow and want a very snowy winter. The discussions lately seem to lean toward less snow and I have been getting discouraged. Should I be?
Leo Lady; Strictly for Southwest Virginia, I think that El Nino is highly overrated as a singular determinant for how much snow the winter will have.
Locally, El Nino winters tend to be feast or famine — big snow or not much snow. 2009-10 was a big winter for snow because of a moderate/strong El Nino combined with high pressure in the Arctic and Greenland forcing cold air south frequently. 2006-07 was a low-snow El Nino (atypically dry, too) because the southern branch of the jet stream was diverted into the central U.S. instead of traveling through the Gulf states like is typical. Some other El Nino winters in the past have been mild and wet, while some have been above-normal snowy, if cold air is delivered into the moisture El Nino usually — but not always — provides.
Historically here, the “La Nada” winters, when the Pacific is between El Nino and La Nina, give your best chance of the normal to somewhat above-normal winters for snow. El Nino often goes to either extreme, while La Nina leans toward dry winters, with the occasional 1995-96 monster snow year thrown in just to confuse things.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation is important in long-term climate/weather, but its importance has often been overstated with regard to many types of weather in the U.S.. It doesn’t operate in a vacuum, other weather/climate phenonmena can be just as important, or even in some cases overwhelm El Nino, especially if it is a weak signal. Any winter forecast based solely on the sea surface temperatures of the central Pacific is lacking depth and nuance.
Looking at models for the next week or so..
Looks like as one high pressure weakens it gets
replaced by another from the upper plains…
Maybe some moisture by next Thursday, Friday
running along the spine of the Appys..
The low being centered over the Great Lakes.
Will be interesting to see how much fetch it gets
from the Gulf and Southeast.
Thank you, Kevin. I will continue to hope for a very snowy winter.
No matter how the alphabet soup lines up (ENSO, AO, NAO, PNA, etc.) winter snow projecting here is always a crap shoot to one degree or another. Some factors slant the table one way or the other, but our snow totals depend on the track and strength of short-term systems. Having an El Nino or tendency toward a negative NAO isn’t going to help much 4 months out with whether the winter’s biggest storm system tracks up the coast and buries us, runs just east of the Appalachians and soaks us or heads farther out to sea and dumps on the beach. How a winter goes here is usually defined by how the 2 or 3 biggest potential snow systems go. We’re not far enough north to expect consistent, weekly snows (2002-03, a weak El Nino winter, was close to that in January and February) and not far enough south to regularly expect nothing.
Another thing: Big-snow winters here are also usually even bigger rainy winters. 2009-10 was. People often forget how much rain we got between the big snow dumps.
Joe: If the upper-level flow turns more southwest for several days we might indeed build enough moisture for some more organized rain with the third or fourth or fifth cold front in the series late next week.
I suspect we could see a strong low-pressure system somewhere, too, as colder air surges south to interact with the milder, moist air from the Gulf.
Kevin, I remember those big rains that winter. Practically every storm from mid November of 2009 through mid March of 2010 was notable either for copious amounts of rain, copious amounts of snow, or at least a little snow.
We dipped to 34 this morning, but no widespread frost. What we did have was frozen dew on the car tops though. The winds late last night near midnight were still up a bit, and so were the temperatures…although by then the cloud cover had vanished. The winds finally calmed and let the cooling take hold after midnight.
It was 33 here at 7am and then later I saw it was 32. But the good news was that there was a slight breeze blowing. If any frost it was very very light.
Now there is bright sunshine and it is looking like it will be a good day. Enjoy it everybody.
Well Rip Van Winkle of the Chapel slept till 9am this day and missed seeing the morning low. However, at 9 am the temp was still sitting at 32 degrees so I suspect that we were in the upper 20′s. Still plenty of frost around where the sun has not hit.
Welcome back Kevin. We missed you but enjoyed Kathryn.
My thermometer bottomed out at 39 this morning. It was colder Monday morning, 37. I’m a couple miles south of Roanoke.
You were right KM and KP about the temps falling early in the am,as the wind died off and clouds went away…hit 31* here in Woodlawn at 7:00am,was actually 33* at 6:00am!! Very few patches of frost in the yard that i’m sure didn’t form until those wee hours this morning…glad you are back ,Kevin but really enjuyed having Kathyrn on board in your absence…
Yes, we are glad you are back Kevin. We all enjoyed Kathryn and hope you enjoyed your break.
Leo Lady – I, too, hope for a snowy winter but I don’t have a real good feeling about this one. I am thinking we will have mostly cold, rainy weather and maybe a snowfall or two. Nothing like ’09-’10.
If 09-10 is your bar — there have been only 6 bigger ones in the past century, and about 4 other barely less snowy winters. That means there’s about a 10 percent chance historically of a similar or greater snow winter compared to 09-10.
No report this morning from Burkes Garden. Coolest low I could find in SW Virginia on COOP reports was 28 at Troutdale in Grayson County, in the valley north of Mount Rogers.
Lest we forget it’s still tropical season — NHC gives a 50 percent chance of a disturbance east of the Bahamas developing into at least a tropical depression.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
wow another chilly morning here in southwest virginia, the fall colors are really starting to show with this weather we’ve been having.
09-10 was our sugar daddy winter up here! Snowiest winter on record! Can I put another order in for one just like it?
That would give you about a 1% chance of repeating or exceeding that winter up there, historically, Jared. But it’s weather, anything’s possible.
No frost that I could see in Blacksburg this morning. When I went for a walk this morning I called it “deceptively chilly.” The bright sun made it seem like it would be warmer than it was! Felt good on the face.
Welcome back to your blog Kevin!
Kathryn: Coming back to the blog is like letting someone use my condo while I’m out and then coming back to find it in better shape than when I left it!
… not that I have a condo.
KM, you mentioned awhile back that Burkes Garden temps could be accessed but it wasn’t easy. You tweren’t lying. Is this the link you use and if so, when you get some time, could you put up how it is done, step by step?
http://www.sercc.com/cgi-bin/sercc/cliMAIN.pl?va1209
I slipped on my frosty deck at 6:25am on the way to work. Temp said 34-ish.
My wife told me we bottomed out at 30 degrees as she was leaving the Chapel for work this am. Surprisingly there seemed to be no damage. Flowers and ferns are intact. Now we can have Indian Summer or does that come after a hard freeze
WD: What you have there is the climate site for BG. There’s some interesting stuff on there — like the “Daily Summary Stats” at the bottom left showing the daily record temps and such dating back into the 1800s. But you won’t find current temperatures.
Each morning at 9 a.m. the NWS-Blacksburg puts out a list of COOP reports on rainfall, river levels and temperatures. It can be found at the link below:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/products/browser.php?pil=rva
For some reason, there is no report for Burkes Garden today.
Thanks Kevin. I had it marked somewhere but not under weather and no idea where. That’s the one.
Tropical Storm Patty has formed east of the Bahamas. Though it’s reasonably close to the United States, it doesn’t really have anywhere to go against this more late autumn/early winter weather pattern we’ve been having. It wont’ last long or get far enough west to affect the U.S.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents
KM.. just got back on the blog since you’ve been back.. looks like you’ve been rejuvenated… more posts than usual. I think it was a good thing to have KP for a few days! On a side note.. could someone give me a heads up from the GFS or EURO about the weather around Snowshoe WVa on Saturday the 20th? I’ve got a lot riding on a trip there. I don’t want to ride a train to 4800 feet only to find rain and clouds. Thanks in advance!
Based on GFS and Euro now, I’d say Oct. 20 would be on the back side of breezy cold front. Not showing temperatures that would support snow at Snowshowe for now, but that could change. All subject to change, of course, but some model agreement toward a stronger storm system moving through the Great Lakes with a trailing cold front late next week.
Thanks Kevin.. I’m not so much worried about upslope precip, but then again, at that altitude, it’s difficult to predict in October. Looks like a low pressure wrapping up around the lakes on the GFS, and usually at Snowshoe, that’s what causes the 180 inches of snow per year. Kudos to you and Kathryn.. this is my most visited internet site by a ten factor.
Late-sleeping Michael Hoback (you lucky guy, you!!) how are you feeling?? Doing better, getting stronger? Anyway, we all hope so. You mentioned Indian Summer. From what I remember of my youth in Massachusetts, back in the Dark Ages, the locals defined Indian Summer as warm days (at least 65*) after the first frost, not the first hard freeze. But somebody will probably google it and learn that I got it wrong.
Rick, you let me down. No report from you about how cold it got at King’s Weather Station. boo hoo. Do you have any interesting links for us?
Welcome back Kevin hope your vacation did wonders for you!Kathryn did a great job while you were gone!Hope she does this again someday.Cool up here this morning low 42.High today 60.I`m very happy tonight the Nats won game 2,now the final game tommorrow.We have to win the series!Go nats.