Raindrops keep falling on my head
By Kathryn Prociv
It’s Kathryn again on this cold, wet, and dreary day in southwest Virginia. In Blacksburg today is what we call a “Bleaksburg” kind of day. How much rain did everyone get overnight? Some rainfall totals around the area included between 0.20 and 0.36 inches around the City of Roanoke, the City of Danville and Botetourt County both received about a half an inch, and some of the higher totals were found further south in the bordering North Carolina counties. The heaviest of the rain has moved east and away from the area, so just expect some light showers tapering off throughout the day. Temperatures today will be pretty cool, with highs reaching only the upper 40s and mid-50s. You’ll notice we’re pretty clouded outside. Expect these clouds to last through the day and into the overnight hours. You can see the extent of the cloud cover on the visible satellite from this morning. These clouds will also serve to keep us warmer tonight and decrease the chance for widespread frost tonight into early tomorrow morning.
Don’t expect too much improvement tomorrow, as we will have similar conditions to today: high temperatures of 40s and 50s, and another round of rain due to an upper-level disturbance approaching from the southwest. Tomorrow we will experience what I like to call “wedge-weather.” Wedge-weather means that high pressure sets up over the Atlantic to our northeast. Clockwise winds rotating around the high pressure system shifts our winds to the northeast pulling down cool, moist air from the Atlantic Ocean. This cool, moist air encounters the mountains and literally “wedges” in place. When this happens areas under the wedge can be stuck in cloudy and drizzly conditions. Check out the image showing temperatures for 2pm tomorrow afternoon using the GFS model. Notice the cooler temperatures in a wedge-like shape stretching all the way down on the North Carolina mountains. Models suggest the wedge holds on through Tuesday, and finally breaks down Wednesday as drier air and warmer temperatures rebound for our region.
Until Wednesday keep your jackets, umbrellas, and warm drinks handy. Also, it might not be a bad idea to listen to weather-inspired music; search “songs about rain” and you’ll have some groovy tunes to get you through the next few days.
October 7, 2012 - 12:11 PM
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Bring back the warm temperatures and the severe weather season!
My unofficial temp here at high noon was 47º and I had 0.18″ of rain. Dark and drizzly day. Good for football and a nap.
Here’s the HPC QPF forecast through tomorrow morning: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif
Tomorrow’s HPC forecast shows more precipitation, but doesn’t look too crazy: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif
Radar was back up around 1 PM.
WD…Sorry to disappoint you..
No apparently not user error.
It magically showed up mixed in
a couple of pages back.
Its all good. But im still worried
about the Goats the squirrel and the Raven..
…Cold in Dallas here this morning..about like Va.Had the car heater on last night for the first time.
6000 overcast 10 miles vis…51f….but no rain.
Grab a snuggie and enjoy the games.
from the previous thread – Good Sunday morning to everyone – it is a chilly 43 and rainy up here at Dual Polarization Ridge. We have had “0.22″ inches of rain overnight and it is still raining.
Have just been outside making a small hoop/tunnel structure over my fall lettuce, radish, carrot, spinach bed. It is a raw day out there!
wdbrand – I light the fire for the first time. Good day to kick back and read or be in the kitchen baking goodies.
Ooops – should change the tense of that verb to “lit”
Currently 48.6 in Goodview. We have .32 inches of rain today. Once the temp dropped to 48.0 just before 9AM, it has remained between 48 and 49.
Not disapointed Joe, just having some fun . Glad you found it. I tried to pack it off on the site for awhile when it happened to me, til I found the real problem. Me and fat fingers.
0.30″ sofar. 45.1* after daylight and now 48.0*. Fire tetched off at 2:40 PM. I do make a difference.
Crazy 24hrs of weather for me…85* in Raleigh for football game yesterday (my Wolfpack beating the #3 Seminoles of Fla State,yea!),woke up to heavy rain and thunder at the hotel,then back to Galax,where it is now 46* and drizzling…
I’ve seen a few of you describe today as “raw” and boy are you right!
Just an UPDATE by looking out the window. Has anyone else noticed clearing and a big decrease in cloud cover? It’s currently sunny out here in Blacksburg. If this clearing trend continues, I have a feeling temperatures are going to get a lot colder than originally forecasted!
Latest visible satellite image showing clearing skies from west to east: https://twitter.com/KathrynProciv/status/255071774830632962/photo/1
I personally enjoy these ‘Bleaksburg’ days. We had just over a quarter inch of rain by this morning, another tenth or two after that with heavy drizzle and showers. I don’t think it got over 50 all day, but I did get the heat pump, furnace, and fireplace worked in and ready for the winter.
Never got above 46 up here on the ridge today. Total rain so far “0.28″
Rain totals per the HPC for tomorrow have come down a little. I expect light showers on and off rather than heavy downpours. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif
What is the software used for the temps in the second image?
The Chapel dawned cloudy, dreary and cool. Temps stayed in the 40′s all day with rain until around 3 pm. Acutally had some sun this afternoon and was able to walk 2 miles. Built a fire in the cookstove in the kitchen last night and kept it going all day. That and the gas logs have kept us toasty warm. Had just under .40″. Temp is now 38 but they are saying it will cloud back over tonight and rain tomorrow. All have a good Monday.
John I personally love Bleaksburg days as well. Something calming and relaxing about them.
Clarkdocvet wow what a temperature difference you experienced from Raleigh to Galax. Earlier I glanced at surface obs where it was 48 and drizzling here but 79 and sunny along some of the NC beaches! Currently 39 here in Blacksburg. Broke down and turned the heat on around dinner time!
KP..
Here at work for 45 more min..Looking at satellite loop…
may briefly clear it appears..and clouds moving back in overnight.
Upper level winds are going to bring clouds back in that are
over Tenn/NC now…
Jet stream clipping along at about 100kts.
Saw a few echos on Wva summary..looks like some sleet
may have gotten close to Greenbriar Valley just before dark or a bit
earlier this evening…it may have melted before making surface…
Look for Rain there in the AM a bit after sunrise 10-AM ish..
Heaviest of that rain shield is now over Arkansas /Northern Mississippi….jy
Fog forming up along the New River tonight. Not surprised…it’s cold, no wind, and lots of low-level moisture in the air.
Down to 36* under clear skies here in Woodlawn…maybe upper 20′s tonight ??
Hunter: It’s actually a website that is free to use once you register with them.
http://www.simuawips.com/
Note: Not sure if SimuAWIPS is exactly what Kathryn used for the photo, but it sure is close if it’s not SimuAWIPS.
Good Monday Morning Bloggers – 39 this morning with cloudy skies. It was 35 last night at 11 pm and clear skies so I just knew it was going to be even lower this morning. Wrong! Guess those clouds moved in overnight and warmed us up.
Hey Kathryn! Really enjoy your posts. What software do you use? I’ve seen you in class use it before haha just not sure.
Anyways, for all you snow lover (and haters), some interesting things to pick up this morning.
1) Check out the piece of energy diving in to SOCAL from the NW. Then watch how it ejects out over the central US later on this week. This is something as snow lovers you like to see. Rather than energy hitting the West in the Pac NW, you want it to come in the California region. Usually they eject out over the Southern Rockies then pick up gulf moisture. Good sign for snow lovers and somewhat characteristic of an El Nino Pattern. An active four corners means an active Southern Jet as the season progresses.
2)This storm ejects into the Central US, and then cuts up through the Lakes/Chicago Region (possibly further west) Don’t pay too much attention to where these storms are going now. That is part of the pattern in early autumn. The warm air tries to hold on in the south, while the cold takes hold across the north. Thus the battle ground is over the heartland.
3) The lack of storms so far this season into the Pac NW is telling. I count none so far this season; this is significant. A good way to get a zonal flow is in this type of pattern. Very difficult to also tap Gulf Moisture when they enter the country this far North. A good sign for winter weather fans.
Even though its early, these are some of the things we can start to pay attention to and see how they develop and progress throughout the fall.
The overnight low bottomed out at 38 in New River, before the clouds from the approaching system moved in, it had ‘warmed’ up to 43 when I left the house. Yesterday’s system delivered close to 2-tenths of additional afternoon precipitation through heavy drizzle and showers, bringing the total to 0.44″. Today’s system looks fairly robust, but the early rain is riding the western side of the Appalachian spine, keeping places east dry…for now. Local NWS is saying less than a tenth today and the same tonight, which the HPC seems to concur with…they paint 0.10-0.25 on us.
Finally reporting in after being a Hokie hermit Sunday – there was .48 in my rain gauge at 4 PM Sunday when the rain ended. Most of that happened in the early morning. Never got above 50 on my temp gauge which means it was probably 48, just like the VT airport. Didn’t venture out until around 5:30 PM and it was brisk. Had my favorite Hokie-colored flannel shirt on…and finally pulled out the turtlenecks.
I posted at the end of previous thread. Predicted that the wedge, whenever it finally departs SW Virginia, will depart Blacksburg before ROA. It doesn’t always work out that way, but definitely the vast majority of the time.
I wonder what the Lafayette, LA folks would call this morning’s temps in SW VA, if they think that 73* is “cold….”
Good morning all! For those who asked, the software I use is called SimuAwips and you can download it free at simuawips.com. I love it!
Thank you for all the temperature reports. As Carol mentioned, those clouds REALLY thickened overnight keeping us fairly warm (and by fairly warm I mean mid-30s instead of below freezing haha).
Currently dry outside for the most part but I expect the rain shield to move in a bit later. If you have anything to do outside do it now since I expect conditions to decline pretty rapidly. Temperatures look to be same story as yesterday: 40s and 50s. Will have a updated blog post up around lunchtime for you all.
I saw this winter forecast from the folks at (in)Accuweather, and I like it. It’s for the number of snow days (1″+), and our area is right in the midst of the ‘Much Above’ normal swath…I’ll take it!
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/forecast-snow-days-for-winter/83754
Oops!
Somebody forgot to post his weekly quiz & didn’t work on his lesson this week. Have a good excuse. I was in Baltimore Sunday for the Yankees/Orioles game in the rain. Thanks to Lawyer buddy for inviting me to the game. Cold but damp. Fun. Back home now… working on Lesson 3.
Out later today…quags
Possibility that the higher reflectivities coming out of Eastern Kentucky are Wet Snowflakes melting around 4-5k feet? Thus showing up as bright red/orange on radar? Don’t see any mention of thunderstorms in the area.
The piece of energy Zach mentioned in his post above has the potential to cause some severe weather in the plains come the end of the week. Lower level jet is really ramped up on the GFS over Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. (Upwards to to 90kts at 500mb) I don’t see it causing us anything severe locally, but it does give me something to track and hopefully cure my craving for severe weather. [end weather geek post/]
In the short term, I’ll be glad when when we finally get some sunny warm days again. These dreary cold morning are making it tough to get up and get going.
I switched the heat on yesterday afternoon, but the temps in the house did not drop far enough for the furnace to kick in until about 2:00 AM. Boy did it stink at first! I guess fall is truly here.
Correct Ben G. per the 12Z GFS.
Compare this to the 12Z Euro & see what happens. I am thrilled to see that the southern jet is starting to show serious signs of getting active this early. Good news for later on this winter but bad news as an active southern jet in fall means increased severe activity for the southland.
Ben G don’t worry I feel the severe weather withdrawal too. I’ve seen a couple people mention the possibility of a severe outbreak later this week so definitely worth following!
For those tiring of the cold, dreariness tomorrow looks to be a big improvement. My next blog post provides an update!
HokieTrax turtle-neck weather indeed! Wearing one today.
Doug “Birmingham Bama” right you are in that the wedge usually erodes in Blacksburg before Roanoke as we get that SW flow first that helps push it away.
John AccuWeather, the Farmer’s Almanac, and the Old Farmer’s Alamanac all forecast an “above average snow total” winter! Anyone on here a big believer in the Almanacs?
This just in! A report from the Blacksburg NWS. We broke the record for record low high temperature yesterday and we’re on track to do it again today.
“With a high temperature of only 48 degrees yesterday, Blacksburg set a record low maximum temperature, breaking the old record of 52 degrees from 2001. Danville only made it to 55 degrees, tying their record low maximum from 2006. With the cool weather sticking around today, Roanoke, Danville, Bluefield, and Blacksburg all have a shot to break their record low maximum temperatures today!”
I have followed the Almanacs loosely, mostly for entertainment value. I haven’t found the weather forecasts to be all that terribly accurate. Sometimes they’re right, sometimes close, other times about 180 degrees off. If there is any scientific reasoning behind their long-range forecasts, it doesn’t seem to be working that well.
John I think the Alamanacs still persist due to tradition.
I don’t put much thought into them personally…at least not their long range winter forecasts 
Shoo away the flying birds!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumerian_Farmer's_Almanac