The long-continuing period of classic October weather we’ve been having will take a brief break on Monday as a new cold front pushes through, likely triggering a line of showers as the front lifts some Gulf of Mexico moisture. The inset map at left shows Sunday evening’s North American Model (NAM) depiction of what the radar is projected to look like about 11 a.m. Monday, with Roanoke roughly on the backside of departing rain. Rainfall amounts of .25-.50 inch are projected in much of Southwest Virginia by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center — I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more toward the lower edge of that projection, as fast as the showers will be moving. Farther east, where the front will hit more warmth and therefore encounter more instability, there is some risk of severe storms over eastern Virginia. While a rumble or two of thunder can’t entirely be ruled out in Southwest Virginia, the front will be pushing in at the wrong time of day for a serious storm threat.
Once the front goes through, the classic fall weather will be restored, with Tuesday, Wednesday and probably Thursday dry with cool to cold mornings (30s/40s) and mild to warm afternoons (60s/70s). Then, we’ll very likely do this again, with another cold front Friday, some showers, and a return to dry weather with cool nights and warm nights by the weekend.