Showery Monday morning resets the classic fall weather for 3 days afterward
The long-continuing period of classic October weather we’ve been having will take a brief break on Monday as a new cold front pushes through, likely triggering a line of showers as the front lifts some Gulf of Mexico moisture. The inset map at left shows Sunday evening’s North American Model (NAM) depiction of what the radar is projected to look like about 11 a.m. Monday, with Roanoke roughly on the backside of departing rain. Rainfall amounts of .25-.50 inch are projected in much of Southwest Virginia by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center — I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more toward the lower edge of that projection, as fast as the showers will be moving. Farther east, where the front will hit more warmth and therefore encounter more instability, there is some risk of severe storms over eastern Virginia. While a rumble or two of thunder can’t entirely be ruled out in Southwest Virginia, the front will be pushing in at the wrong time of day for a serious storm threat.
Once the front goes through, the classic fall weather will be restored, with Tuesday, Wednesday and probably Thursday dry with cool to cold mornings (30s/40s) and mild to warm afternoons (60s/70s). Then, we’ll very likely do this again, with another cold front Friday, some showers, and a return to dry weather with cool nights and warm nights by the weekend.
October 14, 2012 - 11:37 PM
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just took the dog out with warm temps and a little breeze here at c-burg mtn.
Looks like you guys are going to get all the rain down there. Radar doesn’t look very good for us and we could really use the rain! Kevin, when is the next decent chance of rain coming through?
Going to be a warmer than normal day today. Low temp at RRA was no lower than the upper 50s. Normal low yesterday was 47*. Raining here since about 6 AM.
“0.14″ inches overnight and 56 currently up here on the ridge.
The Gulf moisture surging ahead of the front kept the morning temperatures up quite a bit, indeed. The day’s low will probably occur tonight, close to midnight, rather than this morning.
A story in today’s Roanoke Times about low Smith Mountain Lake levels due to rainfall being below normal in the Roanoke River Basin:
http://www.roanoke.com/news/roanoke/wb/315383
The colors have come on like gangbusters in the last 4 days. Brandon and Colonial and down in the city are showing signs of dropping while at 1500′ to 2000′ they are just now gettin perty. This weekend should be the show for the parkway.
Unless the heavy, wet leaves tangles with the wind they’re calling for, then all bets are off.
Went home to Fancy Gap this weekend and I’d say we must have peaked late last week sometime. The colors were pretty dull and brown, and lots of trees have already shed. That is around 2500-3000′. In Blacksburg, I would say without a doubt the colors are at the peak the past couple of days. Incredible color here today.
I have noticed with the trees though they seem to come in patches. Some trees turn before others etc. etc.
Noon report from Dopplerville – total of “0.33″ inches; partly sunny and a light breeze.
Yes, wdbrand – I would say this weekend will be the peak of the colors up here on the Blue Ridge Parkway
0.32″ here on da Knob.
I’ve seen spotty color, but it’s coming in around the NRV now. The colors along the mountains near Draper Vally GC were looking more vibrant yesterday than some I’ve seen prior to that. A few trees have already dropped leaves, others are in full color, while others remain mostly green. Our walnut trees are mostly bare, but the maple is just starting to show yellows\. The cleveland pears are still completely green.
Doug & anyone else wanting the info, here are the answers to last week’s winter weather quiz.
Here’s the quiz for reference…
1. At which temperature is it too cold to snow?
a. 0 F
b. -10 F
c. -20 F
d. -30 F
e. None of the above
answer is E. It’s never too cold to snow!
2. True/False…The GFS is issued 4 times daily going out to 16 days.
True
3. True/False…Weather models can predict teleconnections as well as forecast specifics. True
4. The most powerful “nowcasting” tool for winter precipitation is:
a. Radar
b. Skew-T
c. Satellite
d. Model data
Answer is A…radar
5. For both Snow Lovers & Dis-likers to ponder…There is no need to worry about forecasting winter precipitation if:
a. Only light precipitation is expected
b. The temperature profile can only support rain
c. The surface temperature is below freezing
d. All of the above
Answer is B.
Also, stay tuned for a Big Announcement concerning coming real soon!
One half inch rain in gauge this afternoon from rain this morning which started at 5:30 am. Beautiful day now almost to warm. Came up US 52 yesterday and leaves still had nice color but did run thru a few rain showers around dusk
Went up on the parkway over the weekend to Maubury Mill. Leaves on parkway were dull and ugly. Got back to Roanoke and leaves in this area beautiful. Should have just stayed around town for leaf watching. Far more pretty here!!
Many of the leaves here in the Chapel are dull. There are some vibrant spots and they will peak by the end of the week. Guess overall you would have to say they are ‘spotty’. Emptied .50″ out of the gauge this am and had another shower a while ago but have not looked in the gauge. It has been very breezy all afternoon. Lots of leaves falling.
A little more rain than I expected in Goodview with .41 inches falling overnight/this morning. Just north in Jordantown they received .48 inches.
I know the Blue Devils didn’t enjoy Lane Stadium this past weekend, but they must have enjoyed the leaves–they are beautiful in Blacksburg!
I noticed on Brandon Ave. that where maples lined the street, the smaller ones had turned to yellow and were dropping their leaves while the big ones wasn’t showing much color. Yes, it’s been a spotty color season most places I’ve been.
I had 3/10ths inch of rain. Still another beautiful late afternoon view right now. My grass that became emerald in September is still that way.
There seems to be a real divergence of how pretty the foliage is within 75-100 miles of ROA. It is WAY before peak in my section of Roa. county. too early to tell whether it will be good or not.
On the drive down to and back from Draper ayer (i.e., “yesterday”), I did not see any colors that I would call peak. If they were peak, then this is definitely a punk year for foliage along the I-81 corridor. Even looking north toward the ridge that sits above DVGC, there were some colors, but nothing pretty, really. Other John and I took pictures of each other on the 17th tee box looking up toward that ridge.
Even though I was born in a region of the US that is renowned for its fall foliage (i.e., New England), I am no expert on the subject. But I do know the recipe for bringing out the colors big time, assuming that your neighborhood/area has not reached peak yet.
Time travel back to late October 2007. After the incredibly hot August 2007 and a very hot September, then less than 2/10ths inch of rain in October through the 22nd, the Roanoke Valley was definitely headed for a very poor year for foliage. Then the rain gods/Mother Nature finally gave us Big Lickers (no, nothing salacious intended there …) a huge present for having survived the unbearable heat. Thunderstorms loaded with big rains on the evenings of the 24th, 25th, and 26th. To the tune of 5.10 inches total, with each daily total at least 1.44 inches. Suddenly we had the best foliage year in my 16 autumns here (I am including this one). {Note: KM may argue with that. I think he thought 2001 was stupendous}. I am not sure that those big rains were in time to rescue the foliage in the NRV. But I do remember being stunned in a happy way by the whole thing.
I notice temperatures are trending warmer over the next few weeks and I believe long range has temperatures normal or a little above for November. This kind of feels like the fall of 2009, or maybe I am just dreaming. I believe that fall was kinda normal to a little above normal temperature wise. Maybe I am just hoping that was the case! Kevin, when is your Winter guess going to be posted?
Yes, thinking back on it the weather was really nice until like the 2nd or 3rd week of December and then the bottom fell out and it snowed like the Dickens. Stayed cold all the way through February and didn’t have a totally snowless ground until about latter February or March 1st.
The wind is really howling out there tonight – not sure how many leaves will be on the trees come morning. I was not expecting it to be this windy tonight.
I looked at the CPC maps a few minutes ago, and on one of them (8-14 day) the precip map looked just the opposite of what an El Nino is supposed to look like, because the northern tier states are forecasted to be wet and the southern tier dry. So that reminded me that the weekly ENSO report came out today.
Dave Tolleris has absolutely struck again!! The graphs of 3.4 temperatures and anomalies in the Eastern Pacific have once again remained almost neutral, just +0.1. This is now a trend, not just a brief downturn before a resumption of El Nino – like temps. At least, that is what it looks like now. The CFS.v2 ensemble run on slide 27 agrees with my assessment …. or rather I agree with them. This sure is shaping up as the 3rd straight winter without an El Nino. But El Nino is not the big determinant (or even one of the big determinants) in whether we get white a lot or not anyway. It will be our first winter since 2008-09 that is neutral, neither an El Nino nor La Nina.
And thank you, Captain Glenno Quags, for the quiz answers.
Jared: Will be talking about the gradual warming trend with my next post. As for my winter guess, sometime near Halloween. And I’m glad you call it a “guess” because that’s all it is for anyone out there, no matter how expert they are.
So Kevin….Thursday’s weather….20% chance of showers after 2 PM and then the night looks okay. Can you give me anymore details on that?
HokieTrax: It all depends on the timing of a front and how much moisture it pulls northward. Right now, rain chances look pretty low throughout the late week. No more details than that for now.
The current weather pattern may be starting to show what the winter coming up may be like. What this may mean for our beloved southwest Virginia cold periods with brief warmups with the potential for numerous snow storms if the temperature is right. After this weekend some beautiful weather with highs in the 70s for the next ten days or so. Easy on the power bill but hard on we allergy sufferers until a nice killing frost comes. For snow lovers this may be a good winter not as good as 2009-2010 but good never the less. By the way great comeback by the Broncos and Peyton Manning tonight.