Some weekend chill builds into several days of dryness with warm afternoons
A few announcements:
* Frequent Weather Journal blog commenter Capt. Glen Quagmire has launched his own weather website and blog, which can be found by linking here. I think he has answers from one of his latest winter weather tests on there. I hope the Captain will still drop in here for a few comments and links to his blog this winter.
* WDBJ (Channel 7) has an event Saturday from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. called “WeatherFest.” I’ll leave it to Channel 7 to explain it and promote it, linked here. If you attend Saturday, feel free to stop in and say hi to me at the Virginia Tech Storm Chasers exhibit, which will be a fully rigged chase van.
* The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration came out with its official winter forecast Thursday, which projects “equal chances” of above, near and below normal temperature and precipitation for the Eastern U.S. In other words … they don’t know, and are willing to admit such, based on the fickle nature of the presumed El Nino. I’ll use their indecision as another opportunity to remind everyone to enter the Weather Journal snowfall contest, details for which can be found at the bottom of my column from Wednesday, linked here.
Now back to Southwest Virginia weather. If you didn’t get rain tonight — and this radar rain estimate map from the National Weather Service shows that a strip including Roanoke and Blacksburg didn’t get much more than sprinkles, it may be a week or more before you get another chance at it. 
Our weather will be dominated by developing high pressure over the Southeast the next several days, and also by a dry, warm upper-level flow as low pressure digs into the West. This is what we call the “negative phase” of the Pacific-North America, or PNA, pattern. This pattern often leads to our longer, more protracted periods of above-normal temperatures in winter, while the West is cold and wet. This time, it will indeed lead to a prolonged period of mostly sunny days, with some cool mornings (40s, some 30s, especially this weekend) and wide daily spans of temperature with highs rising into the 70s on many days (though more in the 60s for the highs this weekend). Before this warm spell is over, a day or two touching 80 from Roanoke south and east is not out of the question. Beyond the next 7-10 days or so, this weather pattern may become slowly unraveled, or perhaps collapse rapidly — details on that are too far out for much clarity right now. Since so many locations outside of the immediate Roanoke area have had at least some patchy frost, I think we can go ahead and call this coming period of warm days our “Indian summer” for this fall.
October 18, 2012 - 11:24 PM
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I actually like the fact its warm now and hope it lasts through Thanksgiving! Always seems to me we have colder and snowier winters if the fall stays warm. Example: last year snow in October led to hardly any winter at all. A few years ago stayed warm up until December and we had a wonderful cold and snowy winter.
Can also remember back when I was a kid, think about 89-90, very cold and some snow for November up until Christmas and then the winter was very warm from what I remember. Maybe I am reading to much into this, but to me that’s the way it always seems to happen.
So guess I am hoping for a warm November!
By the way we had close to 3/4 inch of rain last night.
We got some sprinkles, and that’s all. Disappointing, but not surprising. At least the warm weather will allow for more golf and other outdoor activities…assuming I can actually get away from work and other obligations long enough to enjoy it!
We did have a brief period of light showers last night around 7ish and then about an hour later we had lightning and rumbles of thunder. I thought the rumbles were Hokie Trax’s fireworks but saw on radar that it was a storm cell moving up from Mt. Airy through to Franklin Co and east of Floyd Co.
Beautiful sun rise this morning with fog in the mountain valleys. A prelude to a beautiful Blue Ridge Mountain day. Enjoy!
Nice looking site Cap’t. Signed up and sent a test post. I can tell you this up front. As long as the two word, hard to read code has to be entered to post, I’ll stay on the sideline. Most annoying. Thanks for the site.
We received .19 inches from a small but quite colorful storm just before 10 last night. The lightning really lit up the sky just before the rain hit.
I looked at your site also, GQ. But did not try to post. I basically agree with wd. Sometimes I have to go through that “Enter the word below” rigamarole on another website, and it is a colossal pain in the backside. I have even been unable to post a few great comments on that site because of that BS. Perhaps your “hands are tied” on that issue, but if you can eliminate it or make it easier to read, wd and I would recommend it.
Hey, HokieTrax, were you able to get in the fireworks display last night? It would have been no problem here in the ROA valley.
Yes Jared, you and I agree that there is some evidence that whatever November does temperature-wise, the winter seems to run the opposite way. But without somebody doing a detailed analysis, we really don’t know how strong that connection is. You and I may be “guilty” of selective memory. And I agree that the winter of 1989-90 was absolutely a spectacular winter. Record cold December followed by record warm JAN-FEB.
And congratulations on your healthy rainfall total last night, Greene Hills man. Are the fairways emerald green now?
I am going to try something. Following are links to the 10-day outlook for Roanoke (24017 zip) by TWC and Channel 7′s 7-day outlook. They are in agreement that considerably warmer than normal temps are in store, as Kevin and the CPC multi-day outlooks have been predicting. The TWC outlook has one number that Channel 7′s does not, predicted wind speed. If the TWC is correct for the next period, then winds become quite light after Sunday. Good news for possibility of wildfires.
TWC link: http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday24017
WDBJ7 link: http://www.wdbj7.com/weather/7-day-planner
TWC link does not work. I forgot a “slash /” One more time: http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/24017
and for Blacksburg, too: http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/24060
Thanks Kevin for plugging the new website. Still working out the kinks but for the most part it is up & running.
Wdbrand…sorry about the Gotcha Codes. Will work on getting it removed soon.
Apologies to Joe & anyone else for being so long winded with my posts here on the WJ. I’ll leave those long rants on my site from this day forward. For those of you who want to check out the website, you can click on my comment signature at the bottom of this comment and it will take you there or click this link:
http://quagmireweathercentral.webs.com
Lesson 4 Quiz Answers
1. B
2. C
3. B
4. B
5. True
6. False
7. B
Good thing about the weekend, I can finally get a chance to get up on my roof, clean out my gutters, and install leaf guards. We haven’t had a terrible problem with it, but the gutter on the back of the house gets leaves from the maple and walnut trees, so they have to be cleaned out usually once a year. If I don’t, water runs down the corner of the house and washes out the landscape mulch in a hurry. I also have a fair bit of other yard work to get done, so I’ll make the most of the weather.
Looking forward to the upcoming World Series. Only way it could be better is if I was staying in the 313 so I could catch the games at Comerica Park. Last time I saw a game up there was 1993, at the old Tiger Stadium. But, it was a good day…weather was picture perfect, and Cecil Fielder rewarded us with a huge bomb of a homerun.
Kevin, if you want a good chuckle, check out the 12z GFS fantasy snow rain and ice storm for November 1-4.
I know there’s zero chance of it happening, but us winter lovers can dream, right?
Although that .8 inches of ice wouldn’t be good for anyone.
Glen….best of luck on the new site. Ill visit…but only if the answers are true/false..im tested out this month..
You can try this one out if you like.
Describe the universe..and give me 2 examples.
Cheers…avoid the cb-s and keep the nav lights on.
Actually Doug the fairways are starting to take on that yellowish dormant color, we have Bermuda fairways here. The bent tees and greens really enjoyed it, especially after that shot of fertilizer. Anyone know what the long range is calling for in November?
The GFS has been flirting off and on for a few runs with a low moving out of the Gulf up the East Coast with some level of cold air moving south in the Oct. 31-Nov. 4 frame. It looked very Miller A-like in at least 1 run a couple of days ago. May well end up being a soaking rain during that time, perhaps with some backside snow showers as cold air blows in. 12Z GFS is a little stubborn bringing the surface cold south.
If we EVER get a sizeable ice storm when there are still leaves on the trees, either spring or fall, it would be an incredible disaster. The derecho power outages would pale in comparison. As far as weather hazards that could bring the region to a total standstill for days and come close to crashing the entire power grid, I still rank a catastrophic ice storm (thinking 1+ inch ice) No. 1, ahead of wind, tornado outbreaks and heavy wet snow.
NWS-Blacksburg’s “dual pol” radar helped identify severe hail in a thunderstorm in West Virginia for the first time on Thursday. Here’s a report on that:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/events/2012/KFCX_DualPol_Hail_Oct18.pdf
Theres some dust coming into the southern part of the applachians this evening from the Oklahoma dust storm yesterday.
KM, you mentioning ice storms rang a bell. I don’t remember exactly what year but it was probably around 2000 that the alltime time ice storm here took down the transmission lines on Poor Mountain. Never recollect one that bad. If you come up with a date, I’ll add some personal experiences to it. I’ll try to dig it out of my records. I took some pics and would have to hunt for them cause most folks wouldn’t believe it without photos of the event. You are correct about ice storms. The worst of the worst of winter weather. That one brought Roanoke and surrounding areas to a standstill. For days. And that hit when not a leaf was to be seen.
Sorry Glen..
I just read my last…I didnt mean your tests..
I had 8 hours of fall recurrent training this month…
plus 2 hours of Boeing 777-300 training ..plus 2 more
for weather products and map features..
Im Classed out.!!
Joe, that’s an easy one. The one we have to live in everyday, and the one we wish it was like.
Doug – Finally had a chance to get on the blog. Kevin somehow made the weather cooperate (perhaps it was our Twitters back and forth!) and there was not a drop in Hokieburg yesterday. The fireworks went off without a hitch – beautiful…and loud! They celebrated the Class of 2014 Ring Premiere. We had spotlights too and the cloudiness actually enhanced their light crisscrossing around. Classic fall day here – gorgeous but many trees are really starting to loose their leaves. The burning bushes are RED.
wdbrand – yes, I remember that ice storm that took out a couple of those big transmission towers on Poor Mt. I would say it was before 2000 – late 90′s most likely. I was still teaching and there were some of my students who did not have power for at least 2 weeks. Remember reading about the helicopters that they had to bring in to fix the towers. I don’t wish ice on anyone!
For anyone going to WeatherFest tomorrow — I hope to be there 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. or so (event runs til 4), at the Virginia Tech Storm Chasers exhibit most of the time.
My substitute blogger Kathryn Prociv will also be there from about 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. (Planning to give her another 3-day run on Weather Journal next month.)
Holler if you’re around.
Many indications on Euro and GFS that the warm air pattern next week collapses like a cheap tent in about 10 days or so. We may make a summer-to-winter transition.
Had 3 different storms last night with very heavy rain each time.Also had rain in the night as the storms woke me up a couple of times.Its been raining here every couple of days since late July.Low was mild this morning around 56,cloudy most of the day but when the sun finally came out it was close to 70.
Folks, a little deviation from weather facts I suppose, but still weather related. An article in todays paper, linked here, http://www.roanoke.com/community/virginia/column/wb/315540
was brought to my attention by the wife. Her club[ESA] had been made aware of it a couple of weeks ago. So, my stuff gets boxed and delievered Wednesday, 24th. I will be happy to meet anybody in the AM in the CS area and take anything you have with me when I go. Not only coats, but any kind of winter wear can be used. Boots, sweaters shirts. Post up here or e-mail me @ wdbrand1@yahoo.com. Not the only worthy org, but the one I’m dealing with for this time.
Next week’s warm weather — before the probable Arctic intrusion near Halloween — may be an ideal time to get the winter wardrobe ready and let folks in need use the stuff you won’t be wearing.
Thanks Kevin.
Came across the comments above about the devastating ice storm that hit Bent Mountain, higher elevations of Floyd County (Dopplerville) and of the BURP near Bent Mntn and also uphill 5 or 6 miles from Buchanan. I remember it very well (where Route 43 crosses the BRP, just south of the Peaks of Otter). Why? Because it was my first winter in Roanoke, and I couldn’t believe how wet the floor of the Roanoke valley was for JAN-FEB. The ice storm just missed happening in Roanoke city and most parts of Salem, etc. I bet it was February 2nd or 3rd, 1998. It was definitely the first week of February 1998. In either very late Feb. or early March, I took a drive up to the Blue Ridge Parkway (“BURP” in Griggsish) just after the Natl Park Service reopened it, and the first two miles heading down Route 43 toward Buchanan from the Burp looked AWFUL. Like some supernatural creature had come along with a humongous razor blade and slashed all the trees down at an angle.
Kevin whats your take on the drought? it looks to be drying out even more with the winds and warmer/dryer weather. In consequence I can see how the fire season could get active if we get a high wind event.
On that same day trip I also visited the Bent Mountain area, and even though it was roughly a month after the ice storm, the landscape looked AWFUL there, too. So absolutely believe anything wd posts here about it.
And Kevin, you just may be right about humongous ice storms. One devastated parts of northern Vermont and especially Quebec province in either the winter of 1994 or 1998.(I think it was the former). It threw rural Quebec province back to the 1700s for nearly the entire winter from early January (when it happened) right into early or mid-March. No electricity for over 60 days. But the devastation from Camille was spectacular, too, and from the Japanese and Indian Ocean tsunamis, because there were many deaths and thousands of homes were destroyed, too.
I just found it via a google inquiry. February 4, 1998. Sorry, I was off by 1 or 2 days.
This is typically a dangerous time of the year for wildfires even under normal conditions. We are not an extreme level of drought do to the rains we got in September but recent dry weather combined with next weeks’ warmth and any wind we get (doesn’t seem like a lot of windy days as it looks now) could create a fire hazard as more and more dry leaves fall to the ground. Hunters and hikers — watch those campfires!
Doug: Mainly thinking about potential disasters HERE. Thankfully we’re away from being a coastal hurricane or tsunami zone.
I’ve read about utility/forestry workers from South Carolina with Hugo and Louisiana/Mississippi with Katrina commenting on how the tree/utility destruction was equal/greater with 1994 and 2009 ice storms in Arkansas than with their disasters. But of course, the destruction to homes cannot match a high-end hurricane or tornado path. The scar at Joplin still takes your breath away a year later.
That early February 1998 ice storm followed little more than a week after the big wet snowstorm that pummeled higher elevations near Roanoke and especially the New River Valley and points west — Blacksburg’s 20-incher. What a double nightmare for utility crews.
Thank you Kevin, you bring great information to the table on every weather subject. I look forward to more of your opinions on past events as well as long range storms.
Zach B: First, thanks for your kind comment.
Going back to your 4:02 p.m. comment (#19), here is a pic from Twitter of a hazy sunset as the dust from the Plains arrives in Asheville.
https://twitter.com/brymell2/status/259453649783230465/photo/1
It’s circulating south of us, mostly, so it probably won’t affect SW Virginia much.
For Joe and Quagmire: This little aviation nugget moved on Associated Press wire today.
FRIENDLY SKIES: It’s been 43 months since the last deadly airline crash in the U.S., the longest such period since after World War II.
Good morning! Have been off the blog for a few days. Leaves here were beautiful in spots this week but the view from my house now has a winter look with most leaves gone. Today is apple butter day so I am heading out. I will be the supervisor since no heavy lifting still applies. It looks like the weather will cooperate.
Would love to have been able to head to Roanoke for the WDBJ Weather Fair but have a prior commitment for the afternoon. It would have been great to meet my “idols” – Kevin and Robin!
This is a request for a fall color report from anybody living near the Parkway/Buffalo Mountain area of Floyd. Our main concern is that the colors have already peaked there and we don’t want to make the 1 hour drive just to be disappointed. Any info would be appreciated.
Alfred; On Tuesday, I came back through Floyd and US 221 to Roanoke after having taken the Blue Ridge Parkway south to Mabry Mill with my mother and my son. I would describe the colors as of then as a random jumble. There were spots of brilliance, spots of past-peak, and strange areas of pre-peak green. On the whole, the colors seem to be more muted and leaning to rusty red/browns rather than the bright reds, oranges and yellows — but again, there are spots, and individual trees, that are very brilliant. The weekend weather is going to be so incredibly beautiful, I think a drive anywhere would be gorgeous. And things may have changed. It certainly has gotten more colorful right around my house in south Roanoke County.
Perhaps Doppler Carol or someone else living that way would have a more current perspective.
Fall Color Report for BRParkway – I just happened to travel the Roanoke County line to the town of Floyd yesterday on the Parkway – There are colors – they are muted this year(everywhere) BUT you do find a maple or two that will be bright. I recommend a ride on the Parkway – The Cahas Mt. overlook and Devils Backbone had a good view and then Smart View picnic area where you drive back to the Trail Cabin – good view. I second Kevin’s thoughts – a great weekend to get out and enjoy the fall colors!
Alfred – don’t forget the hike up to the top of the Buffalo Mt. – that view should be a good one too! Look for the Doppler off in the distance and give a wave.
Alfred: We actually took the trip up to Mabry Mill yesterday and what Kevin described seeing on comment #44 is basically what it looks like now. I actually think a lot of the trees up there are almost past their peak as some were nearly bare. We noticed on our way back down Bent Mountain that the colors were much more brilliant than what we saw up towards Floyd and Mabry Mill. It’s still a wonderful drive regardless.
Peak, past peak, pre-peak hasn’t seemed to make much difference this year. Weird. There really wasn’t any timing to the stages this year so anytime you can go prior to leaf drop will probably be as good as the next. Maples are just coming in. Go figure.
Amanda in FC says colors are good on Windy Gap in Franklin County. She told me here at WeatherFest.
Dave Tolleris has his PRELIMINARY WINTER FORECAST OUT @ his website.
Here’s the link:
http://www.wxrisk.com/
His Forecast is on a Power Point Presentation & you will need Microsoft PP or a competing compatible software to view this. The last page summary basically says:
1. December will be warmest winter month with western 1/3 US seeing the coldest/snowiest conditions for winter season.
2. Strong indications that January & February could be much colder than last winter than last winter with a potentially more active storm pattern…HIS WORDS “For everyone “Noreaster” Potential COULD be High”
Will discuss this on my site later.
Also, I am still working on getting rid of the COTCHA CODES. I hate them too. Should have shopped around a little more for a better support site. My bad.
Came down through Floyd on the parkway to Fancy Gap this morning. Most of the trees are barely past peak, kinda rusty not really bright. Some bear trees too. Alot of the older trees along the parkway don’t seem to hold there color as long. I’m no tree biologist but it seems like the younger smaller trees hold color longer and brigther.
I plan to have an installment of a winter weather outlook on Wednesday in my next Weather Journal column, based on some research I have done about weak El Nino/”almost” El Nino winters locally. As with all things, there are always wild cards, but there are some common threads, too.
The west side of Sugar Loaf Mntn has a three-tiered look. Bright green at the top (WHAT? you say. Green at the top? Yep. From all the evergreens). Then a mish-mash midway, and some muted yellows and off-oranges and a few greens near the bottom, at the elevation of our house. Our back yard looks lousy for tree color with one spectacular exception. There is a maple uphill from our back porch that looks like someone plugged it into bright orange with a few shades of orange-red. One of the best trees I have seen anywhere. Alas, it is starting to drop its leaves.
Great to see Weather Journal commenters Amanda in FC, Ben G and Another Jason at Channel 7′s WeatherFest today. And several others who mentioned they follow the blog. Was very impressed with the questions and discussion I got to have today with many visitors, not only about storm chasing and Virginia Tech’s meteorology program (which is what I was there to support), but also about weather in general (particularly the winter).
I stopped by the WDBJ7 Weatherfest about 3:40, after getting off work, and met Joe Dashiell of 7′s news dept. and meteorologists Robin Reed and Brent Watts. Brent was particularly friendly, even jovial. Unfortunately Jay Webb had to retreat inside before I got there because he is on duty this evening. Leo H was there only in the morning, BW thought. I really enjoy all four of those guys. …… Too bad they cannot forecast the weather for beans!! JUST KIDDING!!
It got quite cloudy there and it even felt like a bit of a wind chill. I was glad that I had my postal jacket on. Got home a bit before 4:30, and the sun was out and it felt at least 10 degrees warmer here.
I left about 2:15 p.m. so I could get ready for my editing work shift tonight, where I am now.
Cap’t, I wasn’t knocking your site. I’m really looking forward to being there. Not that I’ll understand much of what you post and maybe a little of the maps that’s plain english, but there’s no sech animal as too much weather. I simply can’t decipher some of the two word codes and simply quit posting on any site that uses them. Like a half dozen of the fishing boards I used to post on. Great job.
Zach, that is a very interesting observation you made about the younger trees holding onto their color longer. I will try to notice that around Roanoke city during the next two weeks.
No worries wd
I was hoping the Gotcha problem would be minimal. Good thing I have Twitter & Facebook to coincide with the website. I’ll post stuff there as well.
Joe, no worries either. Ain’t Recurrent fun? Just had mine too.
Kevin…that’s a great stat in the airline biz. Wish I could say the same for my end in the General & Business Aviation end but accidennt/incident stats are always high there.
You’re so funny Doug, ha
.
Yeah the Weatherfest was a cool event; it was nice to meet you Kevin, some of the VT students, and to see the WDBJ7 meteorologists!
It’s great to see interest in the weather. I thought the presentations by Jay, Brent and Robin and the NWS weather safety presentation were great because not everyone keeps up with the weather like folks here might and it’s important information. I know so many who disregarded or laughed off the NWS warning’s the night of the derecho and after the fact were shocked by it’s impact. The warnings were and are issued for a reason!
Yes the foliage is lovely here. Not everywhere no, but Windy Gap is nice, and there’s some gorgeous trees at the road to Benjamin Franklin Middle School, just off 220.
Amanda, I am delighted that you enjoyed my outrageous comment about “7″‘s weather team. I really like those guys.
Hey, A-gal, how close do you live to Windy Gap? I thought that you lived quite a bit south of there. Nancy and I looked at a house on Windy Gap Road that was spectacular in several ways, but that commute up and down “hairpin city” on Route 116 and the lack of any golf course close to there dissuaded us.
One couple we know lives two miles south of Windy Gap on the 116/Jubal Early Hwy itself, and several times they have wisely nixed coming down to the valley floor because of possible or actual bad driving conditions.
There’s a new thread, but I’ll answer here -> closer to Burnt Chimney than Windy Gap tehnically. And yes 116 is tiring and frustrating. It’ll wear on you in a hurry, and eats tires like a beast.
Thanks for all the tree info! We actually came from 81 on Rt. 8 and took Rt. 750 to Willis. The colors were much better on 750 than on the Parkway. Hiked up Buffalo Mountain (when we finally got a parking spot) and could actually see all the way to Pilot Mountain. Definitely the highlight of the day.
Looking at Eastern Ky and FCX on my desktop at work..
doughnut holes over both and false returns.
Those boys still have some tweaking to do on their new Doppler toys.
Boring night tonight at 607 feet in North Texas..
No colors on my map from Dallas to Chicago to Baltimore to Miami..
But Havana does have some thunder just east of them.
The mid Keys have one or 2 cells as does gatortown SW of Miami.
Love Saturdays like this.