Sunday looks like another picture-perfect day, but next front likely brings some rain Monday
Once the hottest July on record followed the warmest spring on record, which began with the warmest March on record that came after the second warmest winter on record, I presumed that 2012 would easily march into history as the hottest year in Roanoke’s 101-year recorded weather history. Through three-quarters of the year, with an average of 63 degrees, it is outpacing 1921 and 1930 by seven-tenths of a degree for warmest January-September period on record — that’s a large margin for 9-month average temperature. But June, August and September averaging near normal have slowed the year’s run of heat, and October has opened more than 2 degrees below normal, nearly half over. The temperature will need to average 1.3 degrees above normal over the last 3 months for 2012 to become the hottest year in Roanoke’s weather history, based on average temperature. With October likely sandbagging that pace, there will be no easy march into history for 2012 — I’m leaning toward it not supplanting the 59.6 degrees of 1931 for the record.
Sunday looks to be another picture-perfect October day, starting chilly again (upper 30s-low 40s mostly, some colder spots), then warming a bit more than Saturday (low-mid 70s, rather than Saturday’s low-mid 60s). But the next in the parade of cold fronts arrives late Sunday into early Monday, and this one looks to have just a bit more of a push with it, and will grab more moisture than we’ve seen in the last couple of fronts. Because the front will be fast-moving, and the main low-pressure system will head toward the Great Lakes, we won’t see a lot of rain over a long period of time, but rather a quick burst of some showers and possibly thunderstorms on Monday. Rainfall amounts are not projected to be that much, a quarter inch or less in most locations (second lightest green shade in Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall map inset at left), but this will not be a totally dry front like we’ve become accustomed to lately. Once this front blows by, we get a renewal of the classic October weather, with chilly mornings (maybe some frost/freeze threats again by Wednesday morning) and mild to warm afternoons, with dry weather until the next front and low-pressure system affect us late in the week.
October 13, 2012 - 11:12 PM
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Any idea on the timing of the late week system? I’m mainly concerned about Saturday and an event we have planned.
Right now the front looks to pass on Friday, with showers possible Thursday and Friday. Saturday appears likely to be a windy, cool, mostly dry day. As with Monday’s system, it appears the bulk of the storm’s energy will track across the Great Lakes, so probably not a gully washer or major severe storm threat.
64.9*. Warmest PWS on wunderground for the local area.
But I don’t want windy and cool on Saturday. I need to watch all the jumpers at Bridge Day in WV at the New River Gorge. Too much wind will cancel the jumps, and I’m not going just to get a funnel cake!
NWS-Blacksburg, on its Facebook page, passed along this link that keeps tabs on fall color in our area:
http://wataugaroads.com/fall-color-report/
Rick: Still some uncertainty with timing of the front and position of hte low. The farther west you are, the less wind there will be, as the front pushes east. Don’t call off your plans yet — but realistically some chance it will be windy.
With advancing weather skies are rough over Va and WVa..
If the airplanes are a little lower to your eye..they are staying under this..( SIE is Sea Isle..near Atlantic City…SBY is Salisbury Md..ORF is Norfolk…RDU is Raleigh…GVE is Gordonsville…near Charlottesville…MRB is Martinsburg WV..EMI is Westminster..up near Baltimore..
This is from 32 thousand to 38 thousand feet ..
TYPE TURB Normal
ID 24363
VALID 141800Z-142100Z
INTST LGT
ALT FL320-FL380
AREA 35W SIE – 25WSW SIE – 15NE SBY – 20SSE SBY –
35NNE ORF – 40WNW ORF – 60NNE RDU – 70NW RDU –
120WNW RDU – 165WNW RDU – 37N084W – 38N083W –
170WNW GVE – 105W MRB – 45W MRB – 15E EMI –
35W SIE
You know, anybody that jumps off a bridge that was built to drive on, has to be a certified nut. Maybe the wind would cancel the event and save the fools, but that would only put them back in circulation until the next event. Like you, I’m hoping for winds no greater than ZERO! 65.7* here.
Thanks Joe for the plane report. Lets hope they aren’t flying too low. There is a breeze up here on the ridge and the skies really clouded up late this afternoon. The showers are on their way.
Well, I got to play DVGC again today, and for a nice change the morning was not a cold or even a cool one. Partly cloudy and about 55 when I arrived about 9:30, but the clouds mostly departed near the end of the front 9. And I got to play with a fellow WJ blogger!! Other John!! We had fun, but somebody must have brought in a greenskeeper from the PGA Tour, because some of the greens were putting like a linoleum floor!! Both OJ and I had many troubles. Greens were the fastest I can ever remember there, certainly in the last 3 years. Number of putts of 9 feet or more that either one of us holed? Zero. Number of three-putt greens? Uh, well, let’s not go there. But we both had fun. I just wish that the greens had been more reasonable. One huge plus was the pace of play …. it was fine for nearly all the holes.
Hey, Capitan GQ, are you out there? What were the correct answers to quiz Number 2? If you already provided them, I missed them.
I just looked at the daily readings for Sept. and the current GFS outlooks for the holy trinity (as far as I’m concerned) of the teleconnections … AO, NAO, and PNA. From now through March these puppies will be having major effects possibly on our weather. Noticed a somewhat strange trend for this coming week. Both AO and NAO are predicted to take yet another (probably brief) nosedive well into negative territory. But the PNA is also predicted to go negative, which often/usually leads to a trough in the West and a ridge in the East. Could we have a situation in which the western USA turns much cooler next weekend or 8-10 days from now, while the eastern half doesn’t get influenced much by the negative AO-NAO combo because of the PNA situation? Today’s CPC 8-14 day seems to indicate that …. warmth in the east and the SW, while the only cool spot is along the Pacific coast. Kevin, I need your take on all this info.
Negative PNA tends to keep propelling fronts through with lows moving more NE into Great Lakes. Which is what is going to happen. Blocking in northern latitudes will allow some colder air to come in behind the fronts, but it doesn’t park over us.
Definitely enjoyed playing Draper Valley with Doug yesterday! The weather was quite nice after the early clouds moved out and it warmed up a bit more. Putting was definitely attrocious, and by far what doomed my game to a mediocre round scoring-wise, but it was a thoroughly enjoyable morning into early afternoon. I wouldn’t mind a few more weekends like that before winter truly sets in. I took Friday off, and the weather made it a truly spectacular extended weekend, every day was great for being outside.