UPDATE 9:30 A.M., 10/13: The storm-system highway moves a few states away; classic October weather sets up for Southwest Virginia
UPDATE 9:30 AM, 10/13: A chilly morning across Southwest Virginia, with some scattered frost, will develop into a mostly clear and rather cool day, with highs mostly in the 60s. Again, classic October weather for football games and other outdoor autumn activities. Adding to the tropical thoughts below. Tropical Storm Rafael has formed near Barbados. It will miss the U.S. by a wide berth but might stir up a little extra surf along the coast as it tracks north. Meanwhile, a cold front that will affect us Monday is expected to trigger some severe storms in the central U.S. More on that front’s effects on us in my next blog post tonight. END UPDATE
There is still an Atlantic tropical season going on, but don’t blink, or you’ll miss Tropical Storm Patty. While its location just east of Bahamas would often be favorable for affecting the U.S., it has no hope of survival or westward tracking against the progressive late autumn/early winter kind of weather pattern that has set up. The last cold front that came through here will introduce too much dry air into Patty and likely do her in by Friday night. From here on out, just about the only way a significant tropical system will affect the U.S. is if it somehow gets 
into the Gulf of Mexico and gets swept northward by a cold front.
Another dry cold front will pass through on Friday, as happened Wednesday. You might notice a little extra breeziness with its passage. It will reinforce the temperature regime we have — highs in the 60s to low 70s and lows in the mid 30s to low 40s will continue today and Saturday. We are going to be off of the main drag for storm systems through the next week — the jet stream boulevard will extend from the central Plains toward the Great Lakes, illustrated well by where the most rainfall is projected on the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 5-day forecast map. The inset maps at left, both from the HPC, show low-pressure systems on Sunday (top) and on Thursday (bottom) of next week in almost the same location. The first one on Sunday will drag yet another cold front through Southwest Virginia, which may find just a little bit more moisture than the last two have and squeeze out a few showers late Sunday into Monday. This storm system will likely trigger a multi-day outbreak of severe weather in the central U.S., with tornadoes a strong possibility, as winds aloft will be strong and changing direction with height. This scenario may well repeat itself with the second 
low-pressure mid to late next week. Expect more rain and more severe weather through the central U.S. into the Great Lakes. The second low late next week may be a bit stronger, and might tap a bit more cold air — the early week storm will mostly be pulling in cool, but not exceptionally cold, Pacific air. The late-week storm has more potential for significant rain in our neck of the woods than the first storm, as it may be able to better tap Gulf moisture. Details remain sketchy on the later storm, including just how much cold air it will pull down — still looking like mostly a Pacific air mass from this distance.
Until thicker moisture is pulled up, the fronts passing through Friday and Sunday will continue to reinforce the air mass we have going — mild to warm days (60s to low 70s), cool nights (mostly 40s), cold in the spots (some 30s), and mostly dry throughout. The warm days/cool nights scenario with no extreme rain or wind should continue to advance our region’s fall colors. This is classic October weather for Southwest Virginia.
October 11, 2012 - 8:39 PM
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I sure hope that dry spell lasts through the 20th. We will be stirring off 60 bushels of apples at the Chapel that day. I get to be boss since the doctor has my lifting still limited.
Doug, thanks for asking about me. I continue to do real well. Going back to work the 31st and start Cardiac Rehab after the 17th. Walking alot and have been successful keeping my weight down. Only thing that reminds me that I had surgery is this scar on my chest and the tenderness as my chest still is healing.
Glad to hear that you’re improving, MH. On Monday I got a good look at the area around Exit 29 of I-81, where the late April 2011 tornado hit. Except for some downed trees in one area, and one empty lot that I saw that was clearly where a house once stood, the area seems to have rebounded fairly well.
KM, Patty is only the 4th new system to be named since the L storm in late August. The Atlantic trop storm season had a great first half, but the offense got tired. As you and I mentioned here.
Looks like this one near Barbados is likely to become Rafael
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents
I am actively rooting against it (the creation of Rafael) happening.
On ROA weather note, the first 10 days of OCT are in the books. -2.0 degrees, and certainly today was also a bit cooler than normal. Evidently I missed one very warm day here (the 3rd) and three others that were at least +3.
When you do your winter outlook, KM, I will do my own. It should provide some chuckles. It would be funny if you and I end up in the same place roughly. One big difference: yours will be mostly based on scientific observations, whereas mine will be based mostly on observations (but not really weather science), and trends.
Kevin, I just found out you have “secret admirers”, people that get on this blog each day to see mostly what you think about the days’ weather, but never post a note. I’ve known a guy and his wife for over a year, and he said to me last night……..are you “Rick in Wytheville”? They rely on your forecast over any others and kinda read many of the other notes. Good morning J and B.
How many like him are out there? It’s a spooky thought right befor Halloween.
Sure looks like an inversion layer is happening here in the Roanoke valley right now. 50* here at 1420 ft. elevation, 54* at a location called “Steeple Hunt” with 1394 ft., but only 41.5 at Penn Forest in the Cave Spring area. 45* on the WDBJ7 logo. But only a mile east of there the RRA airport is showing 49*. Still another example of possible weird, unusually warm reading at RRA.
wd, if you get up by 7:30 today, what was your morning temp? 53 or 54?
BTW, Elliston and Bonsack are showing at 39*.
MH, glad to see you back on your feet. A question? Need an answer ASAP. What kind of apples yall normally use for your applebutter? Reason for the rush, I’m suppose to get some this AM for a group and just found out about it. Thanks.
33* this morning in Woodlawn..lots of trees starting to change around here…
Doug: My outdoor/indoor thermometer shows a low of 42, which compares well with the 41.5 on the Penn Forest reading you cited, which would be the closest one to us.
Rick: Thank J and B for their support! Eyes on the blog count most in keeping Weather Journal going strong.
55* at 5 AM when I rolled out. 59.5* now. Saw 42* around Poages Mill at 7:30 AM.
Excited about the nearly perfect forecast that KP ordered up for our VT Homecoming Weekend! The woods by my house are saying loud and clear “It’s Hokie fall now!” with all the orange and maroon. Here is a photo that has gone viral online:
http://orangeandmaroon.blogspot.com/2011/10/our-trees-have-more-school-spirit.html
So do I need to be worried next Thursday with rain? We have fireworks that night at 9 PM. As long as it isn’t a downpour or totally soaked, they can happen. Keep me posted KM.
Roanoke airport dipped as low as 43 sometime around 3 a.m. and then rose after that. Winds went from calm to NW or W.
Some kind of inversion layer pulled ahead of the approaching cold front, I would suppose for WD and Doug’s elevation being so mild. Or perhaps your winds picked up while lower elevations were sheltered.
Nothing unusual about me being 10* warmer than Poages or CS, Kevin. Happens all the time here, due to my position on the ridge and being in a saddle on the mounteen.
Rick, I had something similar happen to me. Last summer, I went in to a specialty retail store that I often shop in and one of the women behind the counter asked me if I was Leo Lady. I answered yes and asked her who she was. She said she never posted comments but reads the blog regularly. I think there are many like this out there.
38° (this is a test) 38° = 38 248 .. Looks better than 38*
What is “stirring off apples” ? ?
Let’s try again. 38° = 38 (hold down ALT key and type on NUM pad 248 )
I think an interesting forum topic for the future would be a roll call or poll (if you will) to see exactly how many posters and watchers there are and where they’re located. Would be a good statistic to show your boss Kevin.
WD: May be a bit more widespread than your typical microclimate this morning.
Matt: Eyes on all the Roanoke.com blogs are tracked by general location — not specific physical addresses, but localities. Page views and unique visitors can be tracked each day. My bosses know my numbers better than me, in many cases. I get hits from every state and countries all over the world (some are probably single hits based on search engines, while others may be locals abroad), but most are concentrated in Virginia, of course.
Yea, seems to have been fairly general above around 1400′. Your and Griggs elevations bears that out. Like I said tho, my temps aren’t representative of the area in general, so I tend to discount them when looking at other areas which are a better average.
Peppers Ferry, I always took it to mean the process used years ago and still used. Applebutter was made in large 30/40 gallon copper kettles over a wood fire. Constant stirring was required so the term “stirring off”, as in every minute from the time the apples were dumped in the kettle til it was done and jarred. Accomplished two things: Kept it from sticking and burning and cooked off a lotta water[apples being roughly 80% water] which allowed the apples to turn into sauce, thicken and therefore becoming applebutter.
I have a friend that is a “lurker” and he told my husband that he finally figured out who “Nurse Snow” was LOL. My hubby didn’t know I commented on the blog, so he had no clue
It is funny the amount of people who do come onto the blog to see what you have to say Kevin, they want to know what YOU think the weather will be. I’ve had plenty of people say they watch your forecasts over anyone else.
Got us for a low of 34 tonight. Kevin, what’s the chance we get our first frost??
wdbrand: I asked a friend whose family makes the best apple butter (in copper kettles) every year what kind of apples they use. She just let me know it is Stayman apples. I know I am responding a bit late for you but maybe in time. Good Luck.
Tkanks LL. My friend doesn’t have Staymans or Winesaps, so I had to hold off this AM. Doesn’thave McIntosh either, but has Galas. I’ll stay with yellow Del. or Grimes and a red for tartness like I always do. Just looking for other choices. But, some things never change cause they ain’t broke to begin with.
LL, if you asked 12 different groups that make butter each year, you would get a dozen different combos for which apples to use. Like I posted on KH’s board awhile back, a lot of the different varieties used was due to what folks had available, on their farm and their neighbors farm. There ain’t no silver bullet in the perfect mix for making applebutter.
A note about apple butter ..
When I was a kid I remember a few times making
it the old fashioned way..We had one of the big copper kettles
described here. The bale on it must have been 3/4 inch thick.
The old timers showed us how to drop 4 or 5 pennies into the mix.
Of course they were mostly copper in those days and not aluminum.
the pennies scrubbing around the bottom of the kettle would
, while stirring, help keep the apple butter from sticking to the pot.
I marveled at the pennies when they came out as the acid in the apple juice made the pennies shiny as new.
Yes, I too use Kevin’s weather as my “go to weather”. Back in the 80′s I used TWC but as so many folks have stated, they just aren’t like they used to be. Kevin is No. 1 in my book – honestly.
Weather , fate ,1929 , and apple cider.
Here is a really nice piece by
one of R/T own..Ralph Berrier.
Some (most) of you may have already seen
this….
Lemons to lemonade…or hail to cider.
http://www.roanoke.com/news/roanoke/wb/314716
Jared: You have a frost advisory up your way now, as do the counties immediately west and northwest of the Roanoke Valley, including Montgomery, Craig, Botetourt, Rockbridge and Bath.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/
If you do have a low of 34, you would likely see at least patchy frost, and maybe widespread frost if it’s clear with no wind for a few hours. A “surface” temperature of 34 is actually a 6-foot-off the ground temperature — in good radiational cooling conditions, the air at ground level can be 3-5 degrees colder than what it is at 6 feet.
That is an interesting and recommended story by Ralph Berrier that Joe posted. Actually got to edit that story before I went on vacation. Should have posted it back then.
Discovery magazine has an article about research possibly uncovering the mystery of ball lightning:
http://news.discovery.com/earth/ball-lightning-121012.html#mkcpgn=rssnws1
Actually … amending my comment #31/4:23 p.m. above … Bath County is under a freeze warning, while Alleghany County is under a frost advisory, in addition to those listed.
Wdbrand, so sorry I did not answer you earlier. I went and yard saled in Saltville this am. I am sure you already have your apples but we use 1/2 golden delicious (they are sweet and will also cook up good) and 1/2 staymen or winesap. They are more tart and cook real well. Most sweet apples do not cook up as well as tart apples. This year there is a severe shortage of apples and they are very high. We are probably looking at a rome apple instead of the staymen due to availability. I think mixing the different kind of apples makes better butter.
I only scanned all the comments about apple butter. We ‘stir off’ about 150 gallons the third Saturday of every October. We put a silver dollar in the bottom of each pot to keep them from sticking. We have kettles and some members donate kettles. We bought two new ones last year from a man in Fincastle. All of our apple butter proceeds go to the Church’s Benevolence fund to help people in the community. I do hope we have a dry day. We have made it in sunshine, wind, rain, snow and sleet. Everything but thunder.
MH, Staymans were and are a mainstay for AB. Winesaps were also so but seem to have been thrown overboard for the lastest, greatest, newest varities. The old method was, use what you had and raised or a neighbor had. Nobody had the money to buy apples. If Joe still lived here, he could go to half a dozen churches that have made it since when and get a bunch of different answers. Again, availibility was the key. As I mentioned,as did LL in an earlier post, Staymans comes up more often than any others with Grimes and Yellow Delicious for the sweet taste. Mix of sweet and tart is the main recipe. Thanks for the reply and post up what types you end up with to make the butter.
Hey, since several of you folks are talking Apple butter, have any of you ever made crabapple jelly? Do crabapple trees even grow in this region (that Q shows how little I know about trees, plants, etc.)? My mom made crabapple jelly from the fruit of a couple of trees we had in our back yard in Melrose, MASS, a suburb north of Boston. What I remember most was how much sugar she used just to make a 10 oz. jar of jelly.
At 4:45 I was in my back yard and admiring the view. I could see the former NORAD site on Apple Orchard Mountain in Botetourt County, at least 40 miles from here. I also saw two dark gray military jets flying due east over downtown Roanoke, not in any hurry. I would guesstimate their altitude at 2500 feet (that could be way off) and speed about 250 mph, definitely not in any hurry. Beautiful sight.
Temp is down to 58.1* and droppin steady. Wind has laid. Still don’t see frost here in AM but lower areas along 221 like Poages might. Hate to see one hit there. Still tons of small ripe tomatoes on their vines and perfect for juicing and paste.
Yes Doug…
Crabapples have quite a range..
They are here in Texas as well..
I remember my neighbor having a tree
in his front yard over in Franklin Co..
we used to try to feed his pet monkey the
apples ..but the monkey would throw them back at us.
They make good jelly…but they have to be very ripe..
a little like persimmons…if they arent good they are very
very BAD.
Doug – for the first time, I made crab apple jelly this fall from the trees in my yard since there was a bumper crop! Crab apples naturally have pectin so you don’t have to add any. You actually want to include some that are not so ripe as they have more pectin content. What I was able to gather only made two jars but very tasty.
On the blog…one of these days people are going to figure out who I am and where I work at Tech but I enjoy being the “EveryHokie” rep in our group.
RE: ball lightning – thanks KM for posting that link. I’m pretty sure that is what I observed as a very young child on the porch at my grandparents’ home in rual West Texas – big, greenish balls in the sky in about 1960. Later I always wondered if that was aliens or some area 51 experiment.
The current (10 pm) ‘wind map’ at http://hint.fm/wind/ shows a very calm Virginia, but a little different to our west! Guess that’s Kevin’s “Storm-System Highway”.
That southerly flow in the central U.S. is the surge of Gulf moisture ahead of the next storm on that highway.
Also on the wind map Gavin posted, notice the light northeast winds in Virginia. That is creating a “cold air damming” effect that will help drive lows a bit colder tonight and keep highs cooler Saturday than they were today.
Rafael is born. It will miss the U.S. by a wide berth, but may churn up some surf along the East Coast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl#contents
wow, the CPC 8-14 day outlook map still shows Virginia in the 40% chance of being warmer than normal. 33% chance of being drier than normal.
The 6-10 day map shows us neutral for temps, but with a 40% chance of being wetter than normal. Matt (it was you, wasn’t it?), good luck with your trip to the Cass Railroad on OCT 20. Maybe it will be as KM predicted, that the rain will occur on the 18th or 19th, and the 20th will be OK. That could help to improve the foliage a bit if it works out that way.
Speaking of “lurkers,” and I mean that word in a positive way, one of the DVGC grill room gals told me that she would look at the blog once in a while.
39.0* here and it looks like about the same for CS/Salem area.
Saturday morning greetings from Upgraded Doppler Ridge – 31 with calm winds before the sun came up but now with the sun rising it is up to 32 and climbing. Have a great Saturday everyone!
I hope the rain nudges to the 19th. I have a fireworks event to deal with on the night of the 18th.
FYI – speaking of military planes, there will be 2 T-45C Gohawk aircraft doing a flyover before the game today (kickoff at 12:30) in Hokieburg, coming from a naval station in MS. http://www.vtnews.vt.edu/articles/2012/10/101112-corps-dukeflyover12.html I’m sure Roanoke is well within their working airspace so you may spot them in the Star City or even down in the FloydZone, Bi-polar Carol.
Our orange and maroon trees are all ready for the game today! Who would have thought that the Duke game was suddenly ‘the game’.
Had our first frost this morning,low was 32!Now back up to 43!Calling for 55-60 here today.Stayed up late and watched the Nats play.Oh well,maybe next year they can go futher,at least they made it to the playoffs.Everyone have a great Saturday.Mike
I guess I should mention I’m a Cardinals fan. Grew up with them on TV and radio in NE Arkansas, can’t change. Nationals have a bright future. Probably would have won the series if they’d let Strasburg pitch.
Part of why I didn’t update the blog last night was watching the end of that game at the office. I kept my cheering silent in respect for the many Nationals fans there, and also because the comeback messed up our sports deadlines.
39 at Roanoke Regional Airport, tied with last Monday for the coldest so far this season. 38 on my thermometer here just south of Roanoke.
31 at Burkes Garden appears to be coldest low in SW Virginia.
Because the cold was being “dammed,” pushed in from NE, would expect some upper 20s toward northern Virginia.
31 here in Woodlawn this morning,for the 3rd straight morning…patchy frost in some areas too. These mornings are beginning to look like the movie “Groundhog Day”…
Finally got our first frost! Temperature was 34 here this morning. By the way Kevin, I’m a Braves fan!
KM, I think you should stick to weather and leave the poetry to KP.
I didn’t even notice this blog post’s headline had rhymed (highway and away) till you mentioned it. The last post’s rhyming was intentional; this one was accidental.
I was rooting for the DC and Balt. teams, and both came up short in Game 5s. Typical.
MON-WEATHER COMMENT, but one that I hope a few of you baseball fans find amusing. John McGraw was one of the greatest managers in the history of Major League Baseball. Supposedly he was asked on his deathbed what part of baseball he found the most annoying, irritating. Supposedly he said, “Bases on balls, you d–n fool, bases on balls!!” Nats had a 7-5 lead, two out, man on 3rd, make the next batter hit the ball!!!! Even in home run derby they only hit one out about 1/5th of the time, I wager, if that. Pitchers have 7 guys behind them to catch a batted ball, plus themselves, and once in a while the catcher makes a key play, too. So the Nats’ reliever walks the next two batters. Grrrr. At that point I turned off the tv and went to sleep. If Wash. was going to blow it, I didn’t want to see it. And to my shock at 5:10 AM I found out that they DID indeed blow it. Amazing. Of the four remaining teams, the only one I will be rooting for is the Tigers, but I bet they go down in 5 games to the Stankees, with Verlander getting their only win.
Havin a little fun Kevin at your expense. But still, in fun.
Just wait til I start doing Weather Journal in haiku.
Clipper dodges north
No flakes south of Lexington
Snow fans mourn all day
Miller A in Gulf
Prepares to roar up the coast
Get the shovels, folks
One more haiku out of you, KM, and I may be suggesting another Japanese tradition for you ….. hara-kiri. Just kidding, of course.
Or we will reincarnate John Belushi as “Samurai Haiku Blogmaster.”
Griggs’ mail route was fine,
Until that 2-inch downpour.
No rain at his home.
OK, wd, you and I and especially Nurse Snow and maybe the Doppler Polarized Gal (if she can make it in) all need to go downtown to the RT building this evening and check on Kevin. As Dolly Parton exclaimed about Lily Tomlin (who had stolen a corpse from the hospital) in the 9 to 5 movie, “I tell you she’s flipped ….. she’s absolutely flipped!” Same goes for KM.
Some children get stuck in the oral stage, others in the anal stage ….. he is quickly becoming stuck in the haiku stage.
I hope that I have him laughing by now. Probably not. Anyway I was going to post something serious until Haiku Man showed up.
It required a Saturday computer-generated run, but the CPC has finally blinked. The GFS outlooks for both the AO and NAO show a big downturn next week, and now the CPC is on board, at least for the 6-10. 40% chance of being colder than normal, neutral for the rain. On the 8-14, neutral for temps and 40% chance of being drier than normal.
Bravo on the excellent haikus KM! If I may, I think I will post one of my own to back you up
P.S. I hope everyone is doing well!
Virginia autumn
Spectacular fall colors
Cool mornings warm days
Oh my goodness – what has happened to the weather blog today? We have gone from apple butter to haiku
Hokie Trax – I was out in Riner at Sinkland Farms doing the Pumpkin Festival today and I heard planes but could not see them. I thought to myself that it was strange to hear military jets on a Saturday. I bet it was the two planes flying over VT.
Doug – sorry I didn’t get down the mountain to help you guys checking on KM. He takes a break from the blog and comes back writing haiku. Yep, haiku intervention is needed or maybe just a change in the weather will do the trick?
See what wd caused by questioning my rhyming ability.
Great, great comment, Doppler Carol!!! Literally made me LOL! :>) :>) :>)
And tsk, tsk, KM. Don’t try to include wd in any way for what you did …. My sister Susie was 2.5 years old when I was born. When she was 3 or 4 and broke something, she would claim that “Tinker Bell did it.”