UPDATE 6:50 PM, 10/21: Up and down we go on autumn temperature roller coaster: Warm days ahead this week, then cold blast likely
UPDATE 6:50 PM, 10/21: A frost advisory is in effect Monday morning for every single Virginia, North Carolina and West Virginia county of the National Weather Service-Blacksburg’s forecast area — except for the typically coldest county, Greenbrier County, W.Va. The reason: Greenbrier County is the only county in Blacksburg’s forecast area that has been determined to be past its growing season. While patches of other counties may have had killing frosts, most areas have had patchy frost or no frost. Widespread lows in the 30s are expected on Monday morning, before a warm week commences — and then the freezer door opens wide from the Arctic next weekend or early the following week. END UPDATE
A frost advisory has been posted Sunday morning for Southwest Virginia counties from Roanoke, Floyd, Botetourt and Rockbridge westward (plus Amherst sticking out farther east). Frost advisories typically indicate the expectation of patchy areas of frost, especially in low-lying, rural areas. (By low-lying, I don’t necessarily mean the lowest elevations, but any pockets between higher land into which cold air can sink under clear skies with calm wind). Lows tonight will be in the 30s to low 40s across the region, and probably will be similar Monday morning, after highs mostly in the 60s to near 70 Sunday under bright, sunny skies.
October’s run of amazing days for outdoor activities will continue this week, though it may be a tad warm for autumn to some cool-weather tastes. The rest of this coming week is going to be dry with warm days and cool nights, with highs in the 70s (maybe near 80 Roanoke south and east by midweek) and lows in the 30s and 40s, becoming 40s to low 50s by mid to late week. We’ll be under the control of high pressure over the Southeast, while the storm track stays well to the west and north, and chilly, wet weather builds into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. This is a classic PNA-negative pattern, for those into the alphabet soup of climatic oscillations. But there are many indications on the forecast models that this pattern will collapse suddenly and rapidly into an Arctic blast about 8-10 days from now. The 12Z European model shows cold air ranging up to 16 degrees Celsius below normal (yes, that would be nearly 29 degrees Fahrenheit) about a mile up pouring south into the central and eastern U.S. on Oct. 30. As depicted, this would be an extreme Arctic blast for so early in the season, and would probably be accompanied by the first widespread case of Appalachian upslope snow showers. It is several days out, so details of the timing and intensity of the cold blast are not refined, but it appears likely the period of warmth we experience this next week will be reversed in the following week.
October 20, 2012 - 6:07 PM
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I was catching up on all the blog posts and saw comments about ice storms. The worst one that I remember in Hokieburg was in February, 1994. An old day planner I have has ‘no power’ for Feb. 11 – 13 and I know some in Blacksburg were without power for over a week. The water station lost power too so we had no water pressure for about a day then then had to boil water for a few days after that. I am remembering we had two other minor ‘ice events’ that winter. School was out so many days (I think 17 days) that winter that we had to get some kind of special dispensation from the VA Dept of Ed and still ended up going to school until June 17. There are still ‘half trees’ in town from that event and so many birch trees did not survive all that ice.
February 1994 ice storm is on the National Climatic Data Center’s list of billion-dollar weather disasters:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/
The power grid was almost completely decimated in some parts of the South, especially northern Mississippi, where power was out a month in some spots.
I lived in NE Arkansas at the time, just barely north of the mayhem. We had a little sleet-snow mix and light glazing.
From the Interwebs..
1994
February 1994 the back to back ice storms struck on February 8 to 9 and again February 10 to 11 leaving a coat of ice, one to three inches thick, across much of the Mid-Atlantic. Areas west of Frederick County, Maryland saw anywhere from 5 to 9 inches of sleet accumulate. Toward the end of the storm, this area saw light freezing rain solidify the sleet on the ground and but a glaze across trees and wires. There were scattered outages and at least 75 ice-related injuries that were treated at area hospitals. Across central and northern Maryland, Northern Virginia, the Shenandoah Valley, and the central Piedmont of Virginia, about 4 to 7 inches of sleet fell. Again in this area, light freezing rain toward the end of the storm, which solidified the ice and coated everything. It was enough to do about $5 million in damages across this region. The hardest hit area was Southern Maryland, Annapolis, and the Eastern Shore and southwest across Fredericksburg and the Northern Neck area and down toward Lynchburg and Danville in Virginia. Here, the combination of the two storms left 3 to 5 inches of ice on surfaces. It was too much for trees and wires. Some counties lost 10 percent of their trees. Fallen trees made roads impassable. Some trees fell on cars and houses. Electric and phone lines were down with as much as 90% of the area’s people without power. Even with help from out-of-state utility companies, many people were without power for a week. A presidential disaster declaration was given for the counties affected in a 40 to 50 mile wide band all the way from Delaware southwest to Tennessee. Damages were estimated at near $100 million dollars for the Virginia-Maryland area. There were hundreds of injuries from automobile accidents and people falling on ice. It was likely the iciest winter the Baltimore-Washington area has ever seen. Further north, Boston, MA recorded 18.4 inches of snow beginning on this date through the 10th.
Many people across central and eastern Oklahoma well remember the ice storm of February 8th and 9th, 1994. Freezing rain and sleet covered much of the eastern two thirds of the state with a significant ice accumulation. The hardest hit areas were in south central and southeast Oklahoma, where ice accumulations of nearly an inch were reported. The icy roads caused major traffic problems. In the Oklahoma City metro area alone, there were over 300 reported accidents.
Yes I do remember there being 2 different waves with the February 1994 ice storm. Where I was (NE Arkansas), we got our snow/sleet mix out of the first wave on Feb. 8-9, then a little sleet changing to freezing rain with the second wave. The heaviest stuff stopped about 70 miles to my south.
Some of those dual polarization products available to the weather service folks could identify the nature of those false returns. May be biological — migrating birds. Often happens at night behind cold fronts.
I dont remember this at all..either it wasnt that
bad here or I was hibernating..that seems so long ago.
The one I do remember was just a few months before..
and was rather infamous for Dallas…the Ice Bowl Thanksgiving 1993..
I was off work that day and loved every minute of it.
I remember that one also. I remember the Cowboys on TV sloshing around in a snow/sleet mix at times. I was in West Plains, Mo., covering a holiday basketball tournament. We had some ice too.
these looked like returns from a tilt too low or sensitivity set too high…definitely not birds..if u do a couple hours loop..youll also see a big dual doughnut over St Louis on one frame.
Kevin, do you have a link or any info regarding the January 27th 1998 snowstorm?
Here’s a link I never noticed til now that compares Jan. 27-28, 1998 to Dec. 18-19, 2009:
http://www.highknoblandform.com/2010/01/mega-disaster-storm-of-december-2009.html
The top information is about the 1998 snowstorm. This is focused more on the far SW corner of Va. Keep in mind that in that region, the Dec. 18-19, 2009, snowstorm was a heavy wet snow, whereas it was colder and drier east of I-77. So the 2 events would seem similar down that way. Lots of power outages in the coalfields in both events.
Some dispatch humor from tonights slow shift..referencing
the meteor shower…
You can see not everyone here is onboard with NWS products either..
Q & A FOR ORIONID METEOR SHOWER TONIGHT OCTOBER 21 2012
Q. CAN NWS ACCURATELY FORECAST WHEN PEAK METEOR SHOWER OCCURS?
A THEY CAN T FORECAST WEATHER WHAT DO YOU THINK?
Q. SHOULD I PUT MORE FUEL ON FOR THIS EVENT?
A. NO YOU SHOULD PUT LESS ON IN CASE METEOR HITS YOUR FLIGHT
Q. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF A METEORITE HITTING THE BRCC?
A. HOPEFULLY, 75 PERCENT
Q. WILL ALUMINUM FOIL PROTECT ME FROM METEORITE RADIATION
A. YES
Q. WILL THE ORIONID METEOR SHOWER EFFECT MY SENORITY?
A. ONLY IF IT HITS SOMEONE SENIOR TO YOU.
Q. AM I ELIGIBLE FOR METEORITE PAY?
A. IT IS STILL BEING NEGOTIATED
(brcc is our backup facility that no one wants to go to unless locusts take over our current facility)
Flight dispatchers have cynical humor similar to journalists.
Yes you might say that…in CAPS..
I think it has to do with seeing
whats happening inside the beast
where cameras seldom visit.
OK, another non-weather comment. So you like “dry” humor, joe? Try the following, from the CD I own of the best of Bert and I (Down East humor).
Hey, farmer, can I take this road to Portland?
Why would you want to do that? Portland already has plenty of roads.
Is this the road to Portland?
Well, yes, but the way you’re headed it would be about 25,000 miles, and there’d be lots of wet truckin’.
Can you please give me directions to Portland?
Oh, is THAT what you wanted! Follow this road for about five miles, until you see a schoolhouse on the right. Take the left turn two miles before that. Then take your first left, then a right, then two more lefts, and by that time you’ll be so dadgum lost it won’t make any difference ….
Had a good time at WeatherFest this morning. Got to meet the mastermind behind the blog as well as all the on-air meteorologists. Hopefully WDBJ7 will consider doing this again sometime in the future.
Enjoyed seeing you too, Ben, and so many others at WeatherFest.
With quiet weather and a nice day on Sunday, I’m planning to be off the blog for most of the day. I may pop on a couple of times to approve comments for posting.
Cold around the tail end of Tockober?? Well, OK, but I sure would like it if somehow it does a quick retreat in time for the weekend of November 2-4. This COLC has three days off in a row, and I was contemplatin’ a golf trip to central NC.
Kevin, just read that article, thanks for the link. Don’t know if you read the entire post (about the 2009 storm) but just wanted to get your thoughts if you have.
1) Don’t want to down play the significance of the storm, but were conditions in that part of the state as bad as portrayed in the post?
2) Does the High Knob Mastiff play THAT much of a role in the weather down that way, and if so, why is it not referred to more? From the sounds of that article, one would think it is clearly the most influential orographic feature in the Eastern United States. I’m not too familiar with it. I’m sure it certainly affects the weather, (All mountains do), but is it as significant as portrayed?
Won’t be any frost here today. 45.5* now.
It is down to 36 up here on Doppler Ridge and there is a very slight breeze. Here comes the sun! I hope everyone will be out enjoying the day.
We had another 33 here, with plenty of frost. This was the 5th freeze of the season for our nearby Kings Weather Station. They had 29 again in that cold spot.
Kevin has “warned”/advised us of a possible invasion of unusually cold air about Oct. 28th-30th. So that got me curious what the GFS outlooks for the NAO and AO look like.
NAO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml
Just look at the enormous nosedives on the 7- and 10-day graphs! Below minus 2 on the 10-day.
AO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml The AO plunges almost to -3 on a couple of occasions on its 10-day graph!! If this were December or January or February, we would certainly be in for possible record-cold temps and high chance of snow.
I read a bit more from the “High Knob” website that KM linked above in his comment of 10:33 last night. Wow. Shows how more devastating a wet snow can be than a relatively dry one. In the huge snowstorm of Dec. 18-19, ’09, this area (Greater Roanoke, and I assume as far west as Wytheville) was “lucky” in that at least we were buried with a typical snow, with some moisture content but not nearly as wet as the end of January and especially the FEB 6th snowfalls. Compare that with what happened with the valleys in the High Knob region of Far SW Virginia.
Reminds me of the Snowtober event of eastern NY State and western/central Mass. on 10-29-11. My lifelong friends Bob and Lisa Macintosh got 22 inches, but it was all powdery and no power outages, despite the massive amount. But my sister Donna and her family in central Mass. about 15-20 miles east of the Conn. River, got 14-16 inches of wet snow and they were without power for 4 days. Might have even been longer because I cannot remember some stuff.
Kevin-considering October 15th is the average first freeze date in
Blacksburg, why is the NWS issuing a frost advisory five days after that date? I thought frost advisories (and freeze warnings) are only issued if a frost/freeze is expected sooner than normal. Or do they issue frost advisories before the first one of the season no matter when it occurs?
So what are the chances of us having a white Halloween this year? And based on some of the longer ranged models, how do you see next week playing out with a possible named tropical system interacting to give us a bit of snow!? How often does that happen!?
Kevin, if you look at the 12z GFS and Euro, I hate to be that guy but, something may not look good for SW VA in the future next week. As use for some partial credibility, DT is already spooked by it and said he’ll issue a report about at 8PM tonight.
I don’t want to spook the crowd so I’ll leave it at that, but, it’s certainly raising an eyebrow as far as I’m concerned.
Let the games begin. Just saw Monterey was calling for snow Tuesday night thru Thursday,the 30th thru the 1st. Maybe up to 3″. I’m sure Whitetop and Mt. Rogers will check in also. I’ve hunted opening day of muzzle loading season[first Sat. in Nov.] more than one time on Potts Mt, Bald Mt. and Richpatch Mt. in Craig, Allegany and Bot. counties in the snow with rain in the lowlands. If Kevins snow guess covered Craig Co., I’d have to pick Potts Mt. for the 3rd, 4th, or 5th of Nov.
I can comment on the 1998 storm. The Chapel had wet snow all morning that day followed by colder temperatures and heavy snow in the evening. By the next morning we had a foot of snow and power was out. Much of Washngton Co was in the dark and the Chapel was in the dark for seven full days. The 2009 storm dumped another foot on the Chapel but the moisture content was different and we had very little damage. When I remodeled my house at the Chapel in 2008, I prepared for generator service and made sure I had plenty of alternate heat to survive our frequent power outages. In 2008 we were out four days after a bad wind storm. Power outages of 1-2 days are not uncommon here.
Woke up to 32 degrees and wind at Snowshoe this morning. The clouds looked as if they could have dropped flurries at any time. Anybody contemplating the Cass Scenic Railroad should give it a try.
Blacksburg Mike: My new update on this post partly explains your the answer to your question. Frost/freeze warnings are not tied to the normal frost date, but rather when it is determined that growing season has ended. I can’t recall immediately if this is the way it has always been done or a newer development. In any event, only Greenbrier County, W.Va. has been cleared out of the frost/freeze program. As for Blacksburg specifically, it hasn’t gotten below 33 yet. I suspect this weekend’s lows and frost will clear several counties west of Roanoke from future frost/freeze warnings.
As for the hinted-at winter storm potential in a couple of posts — all I will say is that it appears the next blast of cold air would be intense enough to support wintry precipitation, the overall pattern may at least briefly favorable for a Eastern U.S. low and several forecast models have intermittently developed a low with considerable precipitation near the colder air from time to time for several days. I fully expect at least a round of upslope snow showers — by this time in 2 weeks, I expect just about every location west of I-81 will have seen its first flakes, and maybe the entire region. That in itself would not be terribly unusual — a littler early relative to normal Roanoke and eastward, though not mouth-droppingly so. But the level of cold air with the next front has the chance to be extreme for this early in the season. And certainly a bigger winter storm would not be the usual course of things (though it happened last year from I-64 to Maine). Lots of time with a warm, uneventful week ahead to monitor developing details.
Warm weather lovers should enjoy this week all they can. The curtain will fall hard and fast on this warm spell in about a week to 10 days.
Here is the 0Z Euro with a strong low off of Virginia Beach and sub-freezing air all the way to the Florida Panhandle:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif
Here is the 12Z Euro for Oct. 29 with an incredibly powerful low near Philadelphia wrapping extremely cold air (and likely snow) into WVa and western Va.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif
I’m suspicious of this solution because it appears to capture a tropical system, as shown off Florida by the model a couple of days earlier. Converting a tropical system into a major winter storm would be an extraordinary feat.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif
That storm is followed 2 days later with a weaker cluster of lows passing just south and east of us, and January-like temperatures at 850 mb — a typical favorable path for a mid-range winter storm.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif
These are long-range models subject to change. But if they keep showing something similar to this through the week, we’ll have lots of weather conversation fodder by late week. I think we will anyway with the level of cold air that may rocket our way next week — after late summer/early fall like highs this week.
Looks like the ski areas will get to check ou their guns by next weekend.
My early guess on the nor’easter potential is that it will end up happening but be more for New England than us. That’s a very early guess subject to change.
National Hurricane Center is tracking 2 systems that could be named soon. Both would have potential to affect the U.S. if they get caught up in the developing eastern U.S. trough.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Interesting weather ahead, after this week, which will just be plain nice.
I have 2 words for everyone…
Invest 99L
Looks like an interesting week ahead.
Will update on the website in the morning.
Interesting week for the models that is…
Tonight around 6:30 PM, driving home (toward the west), I noted no less than 8 jet contrails in the sky! I’ve often wondered if we are in a flight path of some kind. Perhaps the pilot/airplane guys on the blog can address that. I know on one tubo-prop flight I was on from ATL to ROA, we flew pretty low over Hokieburg, enough where I could pick out Cassell Coliseum and Lane Stadium, on the approach to ROA.
HokieTrax:
Yes to your question. SW VA is located right under 3 major Hi altitude routes with the Northern Arrival Route for Atlanta (Falcon 3 STAR) goes right over you. I don’t have time to go into detail, but someday I’ll post it on my new website. Joe will verify this.
Yes, Hokie Trax – Joe mentioned that we are under a major air highway here. I will post a link to a site that he mentioned awhile back that shows what planes are flying over. It is pretty interesting to watch the planes fly overhead.
Just walked the dogs for the night and it is so calm and still and cold outside. I bet we see frost in the morning up here on the ridge.
Hokie Trax – here is the website for the plane traffic -
http://flightaware.com/live/airport/KROA
Doppler Gal, thanks for the link to airplanes going overhead in our region. If I remember, and the odds are very good that I will not, I will check that link very early tomorrow about dog walking time (a bit before 6) to see what is happening. Often I see a plane low in the sky overhead, either landing or taking off from RRA. Somebody affiliated with the airport or airlines claimed it was an early morning flight to Atlanta (or maybe Charlotte).
joe, if you know the details, please type out the full name of the city for this know-nothing (well, I know a few, such as ROA for Roanoke, DFW for Dallas Fort Worth, IAD for Dulles, DCA for Reagan National ….).
Any similarities between the possible upcoming event and the “perfect storm” in Oct. 1991?
42* dog degrees here at 5:45. I saw a low-flying small plane heading E or ESE when I walked out, over downtown it appeared before it disappeared from my view behind SLM. Either a “puddle-jumper” or a private plane. There is a 6 AM flight to Charlotte that I must have seen on other mornings when our starting hours were at 7:30 AM (now we have to be at work at 7).
38 this morning up on the ridge and no breeze.
Doug, Hokie Trax – if you visit the Flight Aware website enough, you learn some of the abbreviations. I think it is pretty cool the number of planes that fly over me that are headed to Spain, France, Canada. They are not all just going to and from DC to Atlanta or Charlotte.
Carol: Thanks for the airport link. I took a look and bookmarked the page. We often sit out on the back patio and watch the planes go by. Maybe I will eventually learn what a few of the flights are.
It did not get as cold here last night as I thought it would. We haven’t seen even a touch of frost yet this season.
Kevin: What happens to the snow prediction contest if we get snow next week? I mean the contest doesn’t close until Nov. 1 and there is an outside possibility we could get a tiny bit of snow before that.
Leo Lady: The snow contest is for Nov. 15-March 31. Anything before Nov. 15 doesn’t count in the totals. It would just be considered a fluke.
WD: The Perfect Storm did involve fusing a hurricane into a Northern Atlantic trough. So yes, there would be some similarity if it does verify.
Had a little frost again this morning at the house, mainly the cars again. We still haven’t been below freezing though as far as I know, it was 35 degrees.
New 0Z Euro depiction of next week’s possible event is just beyond jaw-dropping. The tight circles are lines of equal pressure — the tighter they are, the more wind there would be. The blue is sub-freezing cold.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif
I know lots of folks on here are interested in weather and extreme events, as am I. But I’m rooting against this. As depicted by the 0Z Euro, this would be monstrous disaster for a large part of the East Coast and some regions far inland. Hurricane-force winds, storm surge in heavily populated areas. Feet-deep piles of snow somewhere (I didn’t say here — 0Z Euro would favor Appalachians of Pa., eastern Great Lakes). Massive power outages followed by unseasonable cold (after near-record warmth in some places this week).
This would be the Perfect Storm, the Appalachian Storm of 1950 and Hurricane Hazel rolled into one — not necessarily in terms of total strength, but in terms of impact to the U.S.
A significant storm system of some sort, possibly a nor’easter, is likely next week. The extreme nature of this event as shown on the 0Z Euro is definitely far from a lock at this point, with lots of moving parts. If we keep seeing this on the models for the next several days, concern will grow.
The GFS is faster with the cold front, farther east with the hurricane, and much farther north and weaker with any storm system that results from the fusion of the tropical energy into the trough. Would have almost no impact on our region if the current GFS runs are closer to accurate.
Thanks Bi-Pol Carol for reposting that site – very cool! I’ve always noticed contrails but perhaps not that many at once but the clear skies and particular time of day made them very visible. Nearly all were going west and one was going the other way. Like one of the fish on the Goldfish bag.
One of these days, I am taking flying lessons. It’s on my bucket list. One of my son’s friends is a flight instructor. I’m one of those weird people who actually enjoys the smaller planes at ROA – the best trip was when we flew around a thunderstorm from IAD to ROA, back when you could still see the pilots in the cockpit and they would let you go up near them to talk. It think there were like 6 people on the plane. What a display of lightning!
I’m camping overnight this Friday in eastern VA… fortunately before this storm business. I already submitted my snow contest entry too!
This is why I love this blog. I have just linked to this in an email and sent it to a few that it will interest. My Sis-In-Law is due on right smack dab in the middle of the mess projected in this model. I have advised my brother to get her to the hospital early if this starts looking serious. My nephew is such a big boy that it looks like c-section is safest. It would not be good for them to be trapped up on top of their hill out in the boonies. He has a STEEP driveway!!!! (and a creek to go into if he cant turn near the bottom.) This thing may amount to nothing at all, still, better safe than sorry…especially in this case.
My concern right now on this, on a scale of 0 to 10, is about a 4. Because it is so extreme, it does make some synoptic sense and the Euro is probably the best long-range model, it warrants some concern. Because it is still more than a week out, and the strength of a tropical system and the timing of a cold front are details that can’t be easily projected this far out, I’m not ready to lay on the horn for an event that might be 1500 miles away and 1/3 of the strength of what’s being shown on the Euro.
I know. In the email, I stated it may not be anything, but I think with the particular situation, it bears close scrutiny.
Sandy comes to life. Say howdy to TD #18, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents
12Z GFS coming out. WOW!!!! update shortly
12Z GFS still to the east & out to sea thinking the trough will be strong enough to keep Sandy off shore but definitely a Cat 2 storm after it passes the Bahamas. What throws this solution out of whack is the second low over the Great Lakes.
Doug/Carol…
Here is a link I found ..
There are quite a few code share flights
KLM and Air France??? really?
Yes,,,you notice they have the same times
its one flight operating under seperate names
and the huge majority are regional jets. Though
from Atlanta is an Airbus 319…it looks a little
like (and is about the size of) a B737 (though the 319 has small winglets)
http://www.airport-data.com/aircraft/photo/455737.html
http://www.flightstats.com/go/FlightStatus/flightStatusByAirport.do?airportCode=ROA&airportQueryType=1
For those of you like me who need help in remembering “The Perfect Storm”, here is a link to a webpage that summarizes the system and describes the individual ingredients that created The Perfect Storm.
Sorry, here is the link:
http://weather.about.com/od/winterweather/p/perfect_storm.htm
So a random thought…would a mega storm next week cause the TWC to issue its first “named” storm?? (rolling eyes)
DC and other wood burners, the rest of this week might be a good time to lay in at least a weeks worth of burning. In a sheltered, dry place. I’ve hauled it in 70* and in 0*. I know which I like better.
Paul; The question has been raised about whether if there is a named tropical system that gets absorbed into a strong extratropical low that causes snow, will the system have 2 names?!
The 12Z Euro has shifted north with the low, toward New England, and is also not nearly as cold over as large an area behind the storm. The GFS continues to not draw the tropical/subtropical/extratropical low in the Atlantic into the trough toward the U.S., leaves it spinning well offshore. I’m not biting on this, at least for our neck of the woods. Think this may be a signficant storm, but will ultimately be someone else’s problem.
Spooky thing about Halloween is: the number of storms that have occurred right around that date. No first hand info about the Andrea Gail[Oct.30, 1991], just second hand that made it feel like I did and related to me by a Cap’t outta Hatteras on some of our offshore trips. He had sword fished with one of the crewmen that went down during that storm. I’ll save it for later and on a slow day.
Tropical Storm Sandy has formed. This is the one we need to watch.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents
One possible side effect is that the development and track of Sandy really dampens the next cold air shot quite a bit.
DT on Facebook is still saying he believes the ocean low will keep it coming inland around DC, Maryland area. Guess he just has that feeling?
At this point, many solutions are on the table, and that one is as plausible as any. This potential system is outside the grid of what we normally deal with on many points. It will be a challenge to forecast with possible major weather implications for highly populated areas depending on its track. I think it’ll end up being New England’s problem more than the Mid Atlantic’s, but there are many days to ferret out some details.
The rain/snow issue is very much on the table wherever it ends up. A tropical low means there will be more warm, moist air getting infused, and that might modify the Arctic air push with the storm system, especially this early in the cool season. Don’t presume those 36-48 inch snow totals kicked out by the 0Z Euro pan out in northern Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania even if it’s perfect with the track.
And wd, another IMMENSE storm that hit within a few days of Halloween was the Lake Superior “inland hurricane” of early November 1975. That one transformed the great iron ore carrier Edmund Fitzgerald into a diving submarine.
wdbrand – yep, time to fill up the wood rack – just in case. It is always good to be prepared.
I will wait until the end of this week to see what the models are coming up with before I start getting excited.
So will I DC. BUT, I won’t let weather like we are supposed to have the rest of the week go by. I will get enough in for 2/3 weeks since I have the room and a dry place next to the house to store it. I’ve hauled more than my share in weather the dog wouldn’t even follow me.
FYI, for anyone interested, DT from wxrisk.com will be on WRVA 1140 AM in Richmond on the Jimmy Barrett Morning Show at 7:25 AM to give an update on the upcoming you know what.
Here’s the link:
http://www.1140wrva.com/main.html
WRVA is also on I-Heart Radio:
http://www.iheart.com/#/live/2465/?autoplay=true