When dew is on the grass, rain will never come to pass. Today…
By Kathryn Prociv
Before diving into the weather, I would first like remind everyone that this is Kathryn Prociv, and I would like to thank Kevin Myatt and the Roanoke Times for giving me this opportunity to cover the weather blog. Many of you gave me a very warm welcome yesterday, so I look forward to chatting with you all in the coming days! Now let’s talk about the weather.
The temperatures this morning were cooler than they have been the past few mornings in the Roanoke and New River Valleys. The reason? Radiational cooling. Kevin has talked about radiational cooling before, but it occurs when there is a calm, clear, cloudless night which allows heat to escape from the earth out into space leaving the surface nice and cool. Other clues that radiational cooling took place were the serene valley fog and wet dew on the grass that greeted the early risers. One of my favorite weather rhymes goes like this: when dew is on the grass, rain will never come to pass; when dew is gone by morning light, expect the rain before the night. This folklore rhyme says that dew on the grass signals a calm weather pattern, usually a high pressure system, which will bring beautiful weather for the day ahead. That is exactly what is in store for us today. We will have temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, and possibly even low 80s in some spots with mostly sunny skies and little cloud cover. Open those windows, and enjoy the day because big changes are coming this weekend.
There is currently a cold front marching across the country that will enter our area tomorrow. This cold front will bring precipitation chances as well as colder temperatures to area, especially for Sunday. The Day 1 quanititative precipitation outlook from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) highlights the location of the front in the Midwest. This same cold front will enter our area early tomorrow morning, arriving near the sunrise. The initial frontal passage will likely be pretty dry, as the downsloping effect of the mountains will squeeze out much of the precipitation. However, I wouldn’t rule out any showers throughout the day. Tomorrow’s temperatures with the initial passage of the front look to be in the 60s and perhaps lower 70s closer to the Piedmont region. The bigger rain event and colder temperatures will arrive Saturday night, and continue Sunday as a cold rain.
For those wondering, this is the same cold front that brought the arctic air and snow to parts of the Northern Plains Thursday and Friday. Parts of North Dakota received 3+ inches of snow and areas of NW Minnesota saw up to 14 inches! Now I don’t want the snow haters to get nervous or the snow lovers excited; that arctic air has warmed significantly traveling over the warmer land the past couple of days. I think I will save more on the “s-word” for tomorrow’s blog post.
October 5, 2012 - 11:52 AM
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We’ll be taking advantage of the nice weather to air the house out. Time to do the fall cleaning anyway! I’m glad the temperatures are slowly racheting downward, just a couple more weeks where I have to think about mowing the yard. A little bit of lingering cleanup and maintenance work in the yard and garden, and I can leave it to slumber until spring.
It was a crisp 46 at the house this morning, with a nice thick blanket of fog. Being in New River, about a half-mile as the crow flies from the New River, we tend to get quite a bit of fog anyway. We’re not elevated enough to be out of the river valley influence…which also shows itself in the winter with the marginal elevation-dependent snow events. We’re right close to 1910′, so in those events we often either get a wetter snow, or snow that won’t stick…while Blacksburg and Christiansburg often get accumulations and higher snow totals.
John I am doing the same with airing out the house! Definitely going to enjoy this before the “Bleaksburg” weather moves in tomorrow and especially Sunday. The fog this morning was beautiful, and you being down in that lower elevation valley definitely increases the frequency and depth of the fog you experience. Your elevation as you mentioned definitely plays a role in the amount of snow you receive. Amazing how the ridge and valley network of the Appalachians creates all the little microclimates over small distances that can cause such variety in temperatures and snow totals!
Ok, I’ll use the s-word, since snow shows up on the NAM 84-hour map for the NW part of “our area”.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
I have a silly question…well, maybe it’s silly and maybe it isn’t…how does radiational cooling (heat escaping into space) occur considering space is a vacuum (the best insulator known to man)? I’ve always wondered that and never known who to ask.
Kevin..Will sunday be a washout or just spotty showers through the day?
Greetings from Doppler Ridge – it was 44 up here this morning. But today has warmed up nicely and the windows are open while we air out the house. Our son moved to Minneapolis this summer and is now experiencing the cold and blustery temperatures.
wdbrand – the woodstove has been cleaned out and the flue has been shoveled out. Now to take the cap off of the chimney – once the stink bugs disappear.
I guess I became a snow lover when I was almost a year old growing up in the snow belt of Ohio. Somewhere there is a picture of me sitting on my sled next to a snow drift all bundled up in blankets and winter clothes. Let it snow, let it snow – but not for at least another 6 weeks!
Was in the basement looking for yard sale items and came across the front page of the Roanoke Times for Dec. 20, 2009. Headline read “Snowy region begins to dig out”. Blacksburg 14.2 in, Roanoke 17.8 in, Covington 22.6 in, Elliston 25 in, Rockbridge Co. 28 in. Fond memories!
Well I’m glad Kathryn can provide the information in laymen’s terms for a non-weather geek like me! Had enough snow living in Ohio so hope it is a long time before the S__w falls! Driving to Blacksburg tomorrow so hoping the rain holds off until I arrive.
Acorns everywhere on DOG St. in Colonial Williamsburg! A lovely day here.
Not so much space Matt…think mostly Troposphere and a bit
of Stratosphere…
Not much gets into space..except for Sprites..and I dont know much
about those..except they appear to be static charges shooting away from the earth..
A bit on the Troph..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troposphere
here is a snippet regarding sprites..
http://elf.gi.alaska.edu/
.
Rick some snow shows up on the GFS as well. Uh oh! I will definitely be mentioning the “s-word” in tomorrow’s blog. Speaking of snow, I just read an article on how the more acorns that fall from trees in the fall, the more snow we’ll get, so HokieTrax that’s a great observation!
Todd as of right now it looks like more likely a washout rather than just sprinkles on Sunday.
Re Matt’s “how does radiational cooling (heat escaping into space) occur considering space is a vacuum (the best insulator…”: “radiational” is the important word. Radiation from the sun makes it to earth through the near-vacuum of space, it doesn’t need air to be transmitted. The heat disappears to space through radiation, another form of radiation than sunlight because it has a different wavelength so that we cannot see it, but radiation nonetheless.
I couple people above mentioned snow in Ohio. I grew up in Dayton, Ohio so I am no stranger to a lot of snow in the winter!
Matt no worries there is no such thing as a silly question. In fact that is a great question on how radiational cooling works! It all has to do with the insulating effect of clouds (more so than space as you mentioned). On a cloudy night, clouds act like a blanket over our heads trapping the radiation emitted from the Earth. Because of the clouds, the radiation emitted off the earth hits the clouds and gets reflected (or bounces) right back toward the surface and that’s how we stay warm. On the flip side when there are no clouds, that radiation emitted off Earth escapes into the upper atmosphere so we lose much of the heat from the surface of the Earth. I hope this answers your question!
For those wondering just how wet Sunday could be, here’s the forecasted precipitation totals via the HPC:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif
And by the way Virginia..yes there is such a thing as fall…
The only thing between Dallas and fall is a barbed wire fence.
20 degree difference an hour ago between Fort Worth and Wichita Falls
..100 miles apart..80f DFW and 60F Wichita Falls….
Yee haw.
The 12z NAM 850mb chart has the 0-degree celsius line (blue line) sitting right on the WV/VA line for Sunday afternoon. When looking at the 0-degree celsius line areas north of the line precipitation has a good chance of being “frozen” and areas south of the line precipitation will likely be liquid, i.e. rain. We’re definitely going to have to monitor this for Sunday!
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F05%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=057&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
Joe – liked the comment about the barbed wire fence. The farmer up the road told us when we moved here a couple years ago that the only thing blocking the cold northwest winter wind was a 2 strand barbed wire fence and sometimes one of the strands was down. I sometimes think both strands are down. Enjoy your ‘fall’ down there. Watching the ball game in Arlington, TX and the weather looks pleasant down that way.
Greetings from the Pelican State. Lafayette is about 60 miles west of Baton Rouge. Summer still in full swing here … 85* for a high here. Got to meet my great nephew and niece (my sister Susie is their grandmother) for the first time.
Kathryn, hats off to you. Guest blogmaster (blogmistress?) for just a few days and already you may be here for a 1+-inch rainfall for us. KM should have taken this vacation back in July, when I was begging for rain …
Spoke with my Mass. relatives, and they report that foliage is just about on time this year, maybe a few days early. Unlike the ridiculously late and poor conditions of 2011.
Oh, and the nice young woman who is desk clerk at our motel made me laugh out loud this afternoon. Said it was going to “be cold” on Sunday. High of 74!! I loved it.
I would love a washout this weekend. I’ve got my house about 2″ dry for the year, still…so that HPC map verifying would cut a good half of that out. Plus, I told my wife I’d be cleaning out our junk room, to begin transforming it into a study. A good rainy day would encourage that, instead of me spending most of the day in the yard. Plus, I just love rainy days here anyway, something pretty about the dreary, cool days that I always liked. I think it goes back to living in Virginia Beach, when we would have an easterly breeze carrying moisture off the ocean, leading to a day of showers and drizzle. I always liked those days.
Ah! Well, I haven’t commented on here in a while and I had a week’s worth of reading to do… I was in DC for a week! Had a wonderful trip!
Kevin, hope you have a good time on vacation.
Kathryn, welcome to the Weather Blog. Very poetic blog title! So you’re an English whiz and professor as well as a meteorologist? Multi-talented! Haha.
And in case you’re wondering, I’m one of the many snow lovers on here! Woohoo!
Hmmm, looks to be just in time for me to fit in some golf and tennis tomorrow! Hopefully I can get it all in before evening…looks to get nasty. And I also want to watch the Tech game…can’t do everything it seems.
Hey Doug, you ever played at The Hill before in Blacksburg? It’s funny…I’ve done many courses in Giles or Roanoke or Blacksburg area but have never ever played at The Hill all these years. Well tomorrow I will get a test from it I feel. Some people say it’s pretty hard. Very narrow greens. And it’s a bit of a restricted golf course space wise.
Kathryn, I dare you to use the “s” word today! You are going to stir up so much “controversy” if you do so! Most of it will be welcome though. You think getting out early and doing my leisure sports I mentioned above would be the best…or is the afternoon still okay?
Kathryn…
Remember that 850mb is about 5000′ above mean sea level. If u are say at Snowshoe then yes I would watch out. If you compare the 925mb map, you will find temps are above 0. Temps will be warm on the surface, no big deal here unless you are above 4000′
Burr, the NWS is now showing 28 in Wytheville on Monday night. Ah, what’s a little freeze among friends?
Looking at Sunday’s weather for Roanoke, I’m happy to no longer be living on the foothills of Twelve O’Clock Knob overlooking Roanoke. We’ll be in the mid-eighties here on the coast today. It takes a lot of cool weather to make a difference in the water that surrounds our area in NC near Emerald Isle. Lots of warm water slows the cooling of the area as winter approaches. Sometimes we pick tomatoes in December. We’ll see some lows in the upper fifties next week, but that’s not too hard to take.
Should have warned you Kathryn- once the “s” word is mentioned on here their is no “putting it off till Sunday” Gotta love fall days with a hint of winter looming.
Its dire folks..Im telling you ,dire.
Of course we had our cold front go through yesterday
evening and went from hot to cold.
Just like our baseball team…like 9 fainting goats.
Yesterday John ,my workmate , tells me that in his yard was a huge crow
fighting a squirrel over the same acorn.
There was no referee so I dont know the outcome.
But I can guess what the Scots would have made of it.
…Aye, theres but
one acorn .. a tussle , squirrel and crow,
Ocober to April ,snow and more snow.
“Cold” with a high of 74? That is crazy. My brother used to live in Miami, FL and they would close schools for “cold” days, like highs in the 50s cold. John I agree in that I, too, love rainy days!
In my experience of storm chasing in Texas, I can certainly agree with the barbed wire fence comment. Sometimes the wind blowing is absolutely relentless, and it’s not uncommon to have large temperature swings. I have a weather cartoon about Texas, let me find it and will link it here.
About to start gathering some information for today’s blog post. Cold front, rain, and mention of some white stuff on the docket!
Linked to the Texas weather cartoon on my Twitter page.
https://twitter.com/KathrynProciv/status/254569703803060224/photo/1
Current position of the cold front. Here it comes!
https://twitter.com/KathrynProciv/status/254573346958761984/photo/1
Heading to the Toast of the Valley , wine and music festival at the Kazim Shriners temple on Campbell ave. Glad the weather is holding up , its a great day for everyone to be outside. Wine and live music can hardly wait. Looks like Sunday will be a great cozy up with a book or old movie day. Sometimes we forget that winter will be here before we know it. Saw an all black wooley worm on a hike the other day , that apparently forecasts a snowy cold winter. So go out and enjoy this day.
Anybody gettin any sprinkles now? Darker than sin here on da Knob at 12:27 PM. Makes you appreciate radar, when you don’t got it.
OJ, keep good notes and come on down when you get done. I gotta couple of areas that needs the same thing here on da Knob.
I would like to quickly apologize that when I refresh the blog comments some of them show up late so I hope you don’t think I’m skipping your comments!
Looks as if the front is blowing through right now with heavy cloud cover and gusty winds. For anyone doing outdoor activities you should be alright as there isn’t any real moisture with the front so you’ll stay dry.
I know, I know I mentioned the s-word and I talk about it even more in today’s blog post (been sent, waiting for it to get posted). I discuss what Captain Glen Quagmire (awesome name) mentioned above in that only the highest elevations have a real chance of seeing white stuff tomorrow…
Also, as Rick in Wytheville mentions, Monday’s overnight lows look COLD!