Wind is main impact expected from SandySuperstorm Mon.-Tues.; most rain to our northeast, most snow to our west
First off, here is the current position and projected track of Hurricane Sandy. Not much has changed over the last 24 hours. Because Sandy is represented by one of the white circles meaning “extratropical” long before landfall, the National Hurricane Center is electing not to issue any further tropical advisories north of the current tropical storm warning that ends at the North Carolina-Virginia border. This is causing some controversy in the weather online world, as many think people will pay much closer attention to hurricane warning than they will gale or high wind warnings. But it is what is.
Locally, we will see effects from Sandy gradually pick up on Sunday — some northerly breezes getting a bit stronger, perhaps a few showers pushed west from her toward the approaching cold front. With Sandy curving away from the coast before turning back, though, don’t be surprised if Sunday is a pretty nice day, maybe peeks of sun and highs in the 60s (yes, I think they’ll probably get in the race at Martinsville). The effects will increase when the trough catches the extratropical-former-Sandy and turns her into SandySuperstorm near the coast Monday, moving inland by Tuesday. High wind, big waves and heavy rain will be occurring near the coast.
For Southwest Virginia, here are potential impacts, especially in Monday-Tuesday timeframe:
WIND: Gusty winds are a given with this setup. How strong and how long are the questions. The National Weather Service issued high wind warnings for the high peaks of Grayson County and adjacent northwest North Carolina for Sunday night, but suggest in discussions that additional high wind watches, warnings or wind advisories are likely to be issued elsewhere. The 12 European model showed tightly packed isobars — lines of equal pressure — over our region (and much of the Eastern U.S.) on Tuesday morning. (It also shows cold air in blue streaming around the low — which might help snow spread farther east — more on that below). The tighter these isobars are packed, the stronger the winds. Right now, based simply on model estimates, it would appear winds may peak in the 20-30 mph sustained with gusts in the 40-50 range over most of the area, but it’s certainly possible that, Tuesday in particular, there could be a bit stronger winds than that. A long-duration gusty wind event like this would cause trees and limbs to break in many places, and likely cause sporadic power outages. Those could increase to more widespread outages if some of the higher wind speeds are realized. Northwest winds blowing over our mountains tend to be chopped into waves which can crash downward and cause local high wind speeds, even into valleys. There are higher winds just above the ridgetops that could be forced downward through some dynamic processes, but those are NOT expected by the weather service at this time. It is a situation that will have to be monitored for extremes, but 2 or 3 days of gusty winds will be likely across all of Southwest Virginia.
SNOW: You can think of the snow aspect of the SandySuperstorm as a winter upslope snow event on steroids. Upslope wind flow — northwest winds circulating around the storm center’s as it tracks westward through Pennsylvania or Maryland — will be the primary mechanism for heavy snow in the mountains of West Virginia and far western and southwestern Virginia. But instead of tapping Great Lakes moisture, rich moisture of tropical and Atlantic Ocean origin will be wrapped around the center, and as it is squeezed out in the lift against the mountains, snowfall could very well be measured in FEET in the 3,000-plus elevations near Snowshoe Mountain. Winter storm watches are out for several counties in that area — NWS-Blacksburg added Greenbrier County, W.Va. to the list today. The ridges west of Interstate 77 in Virginia may also get a heaping helping of snow, and lower elevations through there 
may at least be turned white. The high mountains along the Virginia-West Virginia border in Giles, Craig, Alleghany, and Bath counties may also be in line to get rounds of snow squalls that can collect. The big question mark is farther east, through the New River Valley, the Blue Ridge, even the Roanoke Valley and a bit farther east — those areas do fall in the HPC’s 10-39 percent “slight risk” zone for 4-plus inches. Even “normal” upslope events sometimes have squalls with enough lift and upper-level support to keep going farther eastward — Blacksburg/Christiansburg area is often a recipient of these, sometimes even the Roanoke area. Also, with this low, it is possible that an arm or two of much thicker moisture will be wrapped around the storm well to the south — some models have been showing this. If that happens and can encounter enough cold air getting pulled into the storm, measurable snow COULD extend farther eastward in Virginia. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center places a 30 percent chance of 1 inch or more of snow in the 24 hours before 8 p.m. Tuesday well into central Virgina. So there remains quite a bit of uncertainty on snow, especially considering that temperatures just above the surface may be a few degrees above freezing in much of the area, and that ground is warm and will be hard for snow to stick to UNLESS it comes down hard and/or at night when direct solar radiation isn’t present. For our region, I would say solid snows of at least 2 inches in the higher mountains near the West Virginia line, and a good chance most other locations see at least some flakes on Tuesday, possibly mixed with rain the lower you are in elevation. Accumulations at least on grassy areas are possible IF heavier snow can develop in squalls spilling over from the typical upslope areas and/or larger areas of precipitation swinging around the storm system. For the Roanoke Valley, if there isn’t white on the ground by mid-Tuesday morning, it’s not going to happen. Highs will creep into the 40s from here eastward.
RAIN: Here is HPC’s map for totals related to Sandy, and I’ll be honest, it seems a little overdone in the Ronaoke area southward. The bulk of the rain is going to rotate north and east of us, and we’ll be in a noticeable rain shadow (snow shadow, at times) east of the spine of the Appalachians as some moisture rotates behind the storm. Maybe the HPC map makers just had a hard time depicting the rather rapid dropoff of amounts from north to south through our area. Most of our showers with Sandy may rotate through on the backside, possibly mixed with snow, Monday night and Tuesday. Rain is probably not going to a big deal with this storm here — unfortunate in some ways, as we’re a little dry. To our west, some of that thicker moisture will fall as wet snow, not rain. You can see why West Virginia may get some really big totals.
October 27, 2012 - 9:17 PM
RSS feed 
Great breakdown of what you think is going to happen, Kevin. Appreciate the time you’ve logging on the blog this past wk; definitely been a busy one!
Hey, we have not heard from Randy Oakey lately …. I have a theory as to why that is the case.
Finally back in town tonight catching up on all the weather news.. It rained on my tent last night in Charles Co. VA. Today was okay for our archaeology but you could feel the shift in the air this afternoon and it got noticeably cooler and more humid. We battened down the hatches at this historic house and put away anything that windy might toss around. I saw a HUGE convoy of electrical service trucks going northbound on I-81, all in a row!
Clown map? I may have to drive over into West Virginia just to see this.
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif
Ben: Snow lovers here might hate if that map were to come true with that little Roanoke and south dry slot and heavier snow to the east in central Virginia. NAM likes to throw out anomalous snow patches in later periods, so I’m not buying that central Virginia area. As for WVa — yeah big 2-foot area might happen!
0z NAM brings Sandy in around central NJ and moves it SW towards southern Pennsylvania and looks to stall out over SW Pennsylvania and northern WV then ultimately moves NW towards the Great Lakes. Long period of strong and cold NW winds if that verifies. NAM shows us with 30-50 mph gusts all the way up to 8am Wednesday(84hrs).
Here are the 850mb(~3,000ft) winds in knots. 50-60 knots over most of the area and that translates down to the surface as 45-55 mph after reducing it by 75-80%.
http://i50.tinypic.com/2uzvx90.png
Thanks for that map link, Ben. That tells the story well.
Looks like the Chapel may be more in the 30 mph winds instead of 50 but our local weather is now talking of accumulating snow. One – three inches for the Tri-Cities and our part of Washington Co is in the 8+ inches map. I have the gas ready for the generator and went to Sams and bought extra batteries. This is my week to go back to work after my heart episode. I may get to try out my new heart shoveling the snow so I can get out of the driveway. Let is snow, let it snow, let it snow.
Tropical storm-force winds extend as far away as 520 miles from center of Sandy. That is phenomenal coverage — and why she is a wind threat to us even coming ashore up in New Jersey.
Mr Griggs I have been working around the house and was supposed to put in a culvert but the rain put a stop to that. Later went to Blacksburg to measure a job then off to Vinton to measure another job then home. Have been reading about the upcoming storm when I can. My opinions about what certain storms are going to do or how the winter may turnout are strictly based on past history as I remember since age now sometimes clouds that. If it does snow a lot in WVA I might have to ride up there to see for myself.
that is one awesome graphic – the most intense well-developed storm I can remember. Thanks for posting that, Ben. Wow!
This is the size of the tropical storm wind field on Hurricane Sandy. This is beyond ridiculous.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031332.shtml?radii?large#contents
You will never, ever again in your life see tropical storm warnings out for both the Outer Banks of NC and Bermuda at the same time … from the same storm.
By becoming extratropical before landfall, Sandy will spare Randy Oakey’s August prediction that the East Coast will not have a hurricane strike this fall.
There are some reports on Twitter that Sandy is now the largest hurricane in Atlantic history based on width of gale-force winds, stretching 1,040 miles. Can’t confirm its historical place.
0z GFS nearly the same as the 0z NAM except it makes landfall a little further south than the NAM.
Here is the 850mb(~3,000ft) winds again, this time for the GFS. Showing much stronger winds than the NAM. 70-80 knots at 850mb.
http://i45.tinypic.com/ioeuxj.png
THAT was my theory about Randy not having posted. As far as I’m concerned, Sandy proves his August prediction wrong (although for 2 months it looked like an amazing prediction), and to shell with the technicalities. But don’t feel bad, Randy. On September 9th I predicted that there would only be a total of no more than 18 named storms. Some tiny tropical storm (or was it a hurricane?) that was closer to Europe than North America became the letter T storm, number 19.
New york times reporting possibility of several feet of snow in West Virginia. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/us/hurricane-sandy-on-collision-course-with-winter-storm.html?_r=1&hp “That could lead to several feet of snow in West Virginia and lighter amounts in Pennsylvania and Ohio.”
OMG
Freezing cold air surge as far south as Arkansas northward along a line towards Milwaukee this morning, so still a bit away from SW VA.
Posted link up to high wind warning and expanded winter storm watch, now for 2,500 feet-plus in 5 western Virginia counties: Grayson, Smyth, Tazewell, Alleghany, Bath.
Technically, the high wind warning is for “higher elevations,” but that is left undefined. I think it’s kind of semantics at this point. Anywhere in our region may get at least a few 60 mph gusts, which triggers a high wind warning, while almost everyone will get 40+ gusts.
Kevin!! I noticed that there is a 10-hour gap between your comments. Excellent!! I hope that you got at least 6 hours of good sleep. You are no longer a 25-year-old man. One nice thing about reaching my age (61)…. I find that I need a bit less sleep than I did when I was in my 30s-40s-and early 50s.
And I also echo Amanda’s comment at the top of this list of comments. I greatly appreciate all that you do. More in separate comment.
Appreciative, Doug.
I did sleep well last night and this morning. Will be busy next couple of days.
Just watched TWC for quite a while. Their coverage was excellent, in my opinion. The beach areas now covered by the 4-8 foot surge still starts at Ocean City, MD on the southern end, but now extends all the way to the extreme eastern end of Long Island, Montauk NY. And the storm surge in Long Island Sound (the water area between Conn. and Long Island) is up to 6-11 feet! Man on TWC explained that the confined nature of that sound increases the surge, because the water has less “room” to spread out. Rainfall: All of SW Virginia is in the 1-3 inch range, with Northern Virginia along with an enormous area NW, N, and NE of that in the 3-6 inch range, with locally 10 inches in some areas.
HPC cutting the 4-plus zones for snow off hard against the Va-WVa border (barely east, to take in the higher ridges in extreme western Va) and west of I-77. Not much space between slight risk and high risk. Continues Monday and Tuesday.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
TWC also had some excellent advice especially for folks in the core areas of expected damage: stay off your cell phones as much as possible. If you need to make a cell phone call or contact someone else by Twitter to let them know how you are (or to find out how the other party is), keep the conversation/message short. That will help to prevent the system from being overloaded, so that emergency personnel can get through to each other.
The other thing that I learned about Sandy is that the BP (Barometric Pressure) is now at a super low 951 millibars. Commentator explained that the 951 rivaled Hazel, the 1993 Superstorm, and other extremely powerful storms. Kevin has already explained that here. We bloggers can find out all this stuff through Kevin or by clicking on links provided, but for folks watching TWC who are not weather lovers like us, I thought the coverage was very useful.
Kevin,
Thanks for the great effort put forth by you in keeping us informed. The technology available to us to see the event unfold is amazing.
My mother was a ‘survivor’ of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. Our hometown back in Connecticut is located on the shore between Bridgeport and New Haven.
Mom always told us how as a little girl of ten years old she was sent off to school that morning with apparently no word that there was a catastrophic storm barreling up the coast to Long Island and New England.
She always said the day started out like any other sunny day with heavy clouds by lunchtime and full blown storm by late afternoon.
Thankfully my grandfather wasn’t out on the road as a salesman and was able to get to the school to pick up Mom and her 2 siblings.
I’ve always wondered if that was really the case and they really didn’t know the storm was out there.
What kind of weather technology was available back in that era?
Quags or Joe, what are your thoughts on the level of turbulence and wind shear that pilots/passengers would expect to see when crossing the boundary area between the High pressure associated with the arctic front (clockwise rotation) and the counter-clockwise rotation associated with Sandy?
My wife is scheduled to fly from Chicago (ORD) to CHO tonight. I’d expect them to be bounced around pretty good if they allow them to fly at all.
Tim, I have a 1957 Zim’s Golden Nature Guide book for weather. It says, “Our hurricane warning system was established in 1938…Previoudly, hurricanes had struck with little or no warning.” It describes reconnaissance flights and a microseismograph that can “pick up disturbances caused by storms at sea.” This data helps the pilots have an idea where to go searching.
Yes, we have come a long, long way.
Pic of the ocean off the cam on Avalon Fishing Pier in Kill Devil Hills, NC.
http://www.avalonpier.com/piercam.html
Hi-Res satellite loop of Sandy.
http://bit.ly/P3RbST
Thanks so much for all of the updates related to snow. Have come to the same conclusion — small variation in prediction related to heavy snow, and parts of SW VA will be buried. Best not to travel unless absolutely necessary.
Tim, there is a good documentary on the 1938 hurricane on PBS.org. Right now it is their front page feature. They did know it was out there and there was a junior meteorologist who had the forecast right but was overruled but the senior staff.
As a kid growing up in Texas, we had an elderly babysitter who told us stories about being in the Galveston Hurricane of 1900, around age 10. She was living in Wharton, TX, a daughter of German immigrants. She told us how they hung on to trees for the storm surge, how there were bodies in the trees and coffins washing out of graves. I was about 10 then and hearing these stories really made an impression on me. The average person then really had no idea that these kinds of storms were coming.
A familiar friend’s commentary on the weakness of GFS modelling is too spicey to quote here. His explanation of how it missed what’s happening is, nonetheless, informative.
http://www.wxrisk.com/
Here’s one problem with the GFS — Sandy is now at 951 millibars, and the model intialized it at 960 mb. Already off, right out of the gate.
946 mb is Northeast Coast record for barometric pressure. Very likely will be smashed by this.
Outer Banks are largely under water now. Local officials admit underestimating storm. And the center of the storm is STILL 250 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras.
Juncoes arrived in my yard today. They know a polar trough is coming down.
Virginia Beach Boardwalk live webcam:
http://www.vbbound.com/webcam/hampton-inn-virginia-beach/
They look to be getting some fairly strong sustained winds. Sandy is still well to the south and east.
Kevin, you may have already posted the following, but I want to make sure of it. Was the Northeast coast record for lowest barometric pressure of 946 established during the Great New England Hurricane of 1938?
I have a story to tell (a personal anecdote that I heard first-hand) about the 1938 Hurricane on the Sakonnet River (wide tidal river east of Newport) in Rhode Island, but it takes way too long to tell now. From a guy who was in the water for over 12 hours.
Thanks, Kevin for all of the information you provide here. It sure is helpful to see how the weather is forecasted for our area rather than just hearing the end product or seeing weathermen blowing in the wind.
Have to say though that it’s really hard to tell what it’s going to do over here in Giles County snow-wise – the maps show a pretty rainbow through the entire county, maybe due to the variations in elevations. Looks like we might be aftercasting over here.
The sun has finally poked through in Birmingham, Alabama around noon so the front must have finally pushed through. We were 10 degrees colder than Blacksburg yesterday.
The priest at mass this morning asked everyone to please give blood at the Red Cross blood drive at church next Sunday, saying that people in the northeast may really need it. I wanted to pass that thought along to show that people removed from the storm have you all in our thoughts and prayers.
It was the Great New England Hurricane of 1938, Doug.
Tayree: Your 3,000-foot-plus elevations in Giles probably will get white, and maybe deeply so, up by Mountain Lake. In lower elevations, you may see some snow — not thinking much accumulation right now, just because it’s going to be hard to get the sub-freezing air to park at the surface. Subject to change pending track/evolution of Storm, which is unlike anything we’ve ever seen in these parts, so forecast models (and their human programmers) and meteorologists may be misfiring on some of how it develops.
Another pic of a pier . On Janettes Pier in Nagshead.
http://fishmilitia.com/forums/showthread.php?2905-suds
Walking around outside, noting the 20-25ish gusts I’m already getting off a storm farther off Hatteras than D.C. is from here.
This is when I wish my weather station’s anemometer was still working. I’d love to be able to have an idea of gusts over the next few days around my neighborhood.
NOTE to self: Put new weather station on Christmas list.
Nice article in the Roanoke Times today Kevin…front page billing,too!! Certainly will allow those who do not follow you online to be better informed about the storm.
Friends near Atlantic Beach/SOBX say they have gusty winds and still have power. Their island is south of Cape Lookout and the OBX chain and goes east-west. But from the forecasts, looks like they will have wind for DAYS as SandySuperstorm makes its way inland.
Where is your neiborhood Ben G. That’s why Kevin suggested everyone put it in their log-in data.
Kinda strange Kevin. Highest here has been 12.1 MPH.
More bad news for the OBX.
http://fishmilitia.com/forums/showthread.php?2906-Storm-Tracker-is-saying-Frisco-Pier-Collapsed
very cool about the juncoes … inspires awe
Someone made a documentary a few years back about the 1938 storm. They were completely taken off guard back then and had no idea it was coming. The Long island Sound retreated ahead of the storm and swept away towns on the north side. My father lived through the storm at his Norh Haven (Sag Harbor) NY home. Two massive trees in his front yard were taken. They were lucky to be on relatively high ground.
KM, when you get tired of putting up my junk, just kill it. This is a vid from the Poquoson area of Va.
http://www.pierandsurf.com/fishing-forum/showthread.php?97658-My-House-quot-Sandy-quot-Report
I have yet to see what you guys think will happen to the Floyd County area. I think we will several inches of snow.
Here is the direct link to the American Experience documentary of the Hurricane of 1938:
http://video.pbs.org/video/1497381366/
John from R’ville…If you are still out there…
Looks like your wife is in for a rough ride til she gets west of Columbus, OH then it should smooth out a little. I would imagine it will be a little bumpy in the initial climb around CHO. The worst part of the ride will be up high as the Jetstream is wreaking havoc at altitudes above 20000′ & will be the roughest ride…Chicago right now is clear.
Most of the PIREPS I see are most moderate chop above 25000′ with severe mountain wave turbulence west of NYC, NJ & eastern PA.
John…
my bad…she coming into CHO tonight. She’s in for a rough ride tonight into CHO on a small regional jet. American Eagle Embraer 135. Good plane will take the bumps well.
It’s cloudy now but the sun looks like it wants to shine through.
John from Ruckersville…
Below is a weblink to where you can track your wife’s flight tonight.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/EGF4342/history/20121029/0050Z/KORD/KCHO
Hope this helps.
I bet you are wrong, Manfred Nissley, about Floyd County getting several (which means at least 3 inches, not 2) inches of snow from this. Unless you live on the top of Buffalo Mntn or the highest part of the BRP that runs through Floyd County, near Carroll County. Too far east of projected snow accumulations, altho’ things could change in your “favor,” assuming that you would like to get it.
Ben G, I echo wd’s request. Please tell us your neighborhood location. Same request for everyone, in fact, if you will be telling us (I hope so!) of what is happening in your back yard.
Washington Co, VA is now under a Winter Storm Warning from tonight thru Wednesday. Forecast is for up to 12″ of snow but the worst of the snow will be over 3000 ft. Some weather services are predicting 18″ for our area. Time will tell. We are now at 46 degrees, windy and some drizzle. The wood is on the porch, the fire is in the stove and the generator is on standby. No matter what happens here in the Chapel, it will not be as bad as NY, NJ, MD, Eastern VA, NY and PA. My prayers are going up today for them. Please all, stay safe.
Thanks Quags. I’ll tell her to take her dramamine.
as far as turbulence large aircraft handle it far better then
the regional jets.
Right now there are no areas on the east coast suggesting mountain wave
turbulence.
The sweet spot seems to be from 24000ft to 28000ft with not much reported there.
West of Roanoke from Asheville to Columbus to Cleveland Occasional moderate turbc from 12000ft to 19000ft…SWVA is ocnl mdt 29000ft to 39000ft thats a large swath from Wilmington to Norfolk Well into Canada.
Another area more directly associated closer to nw quad of Sandy from
Outer Banks offshore to Long Island to Pittsburgh Roanoke/GSO to Wilmington NC..ocnl mdt 15000ft to 23000ft.
Its one of the busiest turbulence charts I can remember..and ive only described a bit of it relative mostly to Va/WVa.
As far as actual reports (guys thet stuck their noses in it for whatever reason) there are 3 moderate reports the last few hours of moderate turbulence from 29000ft to 34000ft.
I am in Southwest Virginia in Mendota (Poor Valley). We started having a cold, steady rain about 90 minutes ago.
Wondering if the snow will really make it down here!
Thoough the graphic I use is more tailored
for our use this NOAA graphic is close, if a bit
more general, to whats actually happening
and to be expected.
http://www.turbulenceforecast.com/airmets.php
Here is one more for those interested
from NOAA..using the zoom feature at the top
will show u the relative calm still aloft (for now)
over Roanoke.
and fyi..all of Americans flights cancelled into Washington
National this evening..after the last departure at 8pm local.
(these are a few actual reports)
http://www.turbulenceforecast.com/pireps.php
Person from Floyd that asked, don’t expect much snow. Snow squalls and showers, maybe enough to coat things monday night, but that’s about it.
AND btw, I’m heading up to Bluefield tomorrow morning. Will be riding out the storm there. Will do my best to update as power allows.
Do you think there is still a chance Roanoke could still see a couple inches of snow or is it impossible pretty much
Best wishes, Michael Hoback. And you left off one state, Connecticut, because of the possible big storm surge there. And Delaware, which was getting pounded with heavy rain earlier today. Your snowfall forecasts are amazing, considering that your end of Washington County (near Exit 29 of I81, in case some of you may not be familiar with MH’s location) is only about 115 miles from Salem and Roanoke.
I just checked Alan Huffman’s website via the link on the right side of this page. He had a link to the forecast tracks of Sandy. There was plenty of divergence about her a few days ago, now there is a high level of agreement, and looking ahead for the next 4 days, too. Sandy will come ashore somewhere along the NJ coast, the southern-most option near Cape May at the extreme southern end, and the northern-most line taking it quite close to NYC. All take her either west (one takes her due west along the Penn.-MD border) or NW into the heart of Penn., then generally north all the way to Lake Ontario, north of western NY state.
Manfred – I don’t expect only an inch or two of snow here in Floyd. But if you are closer to Carroll Co., that might be different.
Breeze does have a chill to it already. Fire going in the wood stove; I think we are ready for the big winds.
Regarding snow — gonna be hard to get enough low-level cold air deep enough for long enough east of the standing winter storm/blizzard warnings (yes, there are some of those in WVa now). Also not a ton of moisture rotating around into our region, per the models, on the backside of the low as it slips westward. I’m thinking there will probably be some snow squalls/showers working into much of the New River Valley Tuesday and/or Wednesday, including the Blacksburg/Christiansburg area and southeast toward Floyd, at times. Still think Roanoke may get some flakes, especially at higher points around the valley, but likely not enough to accumulate.
I would not say it’s impossible, though, especially dealing with the unknowns of an unprecedented storm system. The temperature structure doesn’t look quite cold enough for widespread snow, and even in the area expected to get clocked, it’s fairly marginal. The top of Poor Mountain, Peaks of Otter, something like that, might turn a little white.
Here is the link to the wind map, in case anyone is interested -
http://hint.fm/wind/
What is the weather looking like Monday at 8am? For drive to work and drive home around 5pm in Roanoke? When do we expect the “peak” of this storm to affect us?
Joe…
here’s the mountain wave PIREPS I was referring to. It was earlier this morning around 15Z near PSB (Philipsburg, PA)
PSB UUA /OV PSB270010/TM 1509/FL400/TP F2TH/TB WAVE ACTION/RM DURGC FL 400-410 WAVE ACTION +/- 15 KTS NO ALT VARN
PSB UUA /OV ETG180005/TM 1510/FL400/TP F2TH/TB MDT TURB WAVE ACTION/RM DURGD FL 410-400 WAVE ACTION +/- 15 KTS NO ALT VARN CORRECTION
PSB UUA /OV ETG180005/TM 1510/FL410/TP F2TH/TB MDT TURB WAVE ACTION/RM WAVE ACTION +/- 15 KTS NO ALT VARN
Yep agree the bigger the plane the better the ride thru the chop. Boeings in general (especially 737s) tend to be “fish-tailers” in the back as the Flight Attendants referred to the ride in turbulence. I’ve always seem to find the EMBs ride the bumps better than the CRJs…just my thinkin.
Kevin…
Also wondering about the entrained
tropical air moderating the temps
especially early on when more
of the fetch is offshore. (Thoughts)
Seems less likely especially with the
warm air already in place.
Sure looks like a tight gradient tomorrow.
Stay safe yall.
Wondered about that myself, Joe. Seems later models have picked up a bit on that and weakened the cold air somewhat. Still gonna be a ton of snow over in WVa.
Winds will gradually pick up during the day Monday, with the worst likely Monday night and Tuesday, 20-40 mph sustained with gusts up to 60 mph possible. Drive to work tomorrow probably won’t be that adverse, but drive home may be gusty. May get some rain circulating into region Monday night, and possibly snow at higher elevations and however much east of WVa it can work.
Km, when will winds really come into play in bburg?
Thanks for the turbulence info, Joe
Took a look at Snowshoe’s forecast–Blizzard Warning through Wednesday-
Snow Monday with wind 23-30 MPH and gusts to 50 (3-7″)
Monday night Wind around 37 with gusts to 60 (9-13″)
Tuesday more snow with wind 31 – 38 and gusts to 60
I have been going to Snowshoe for 30+ years and have followed their weather closely. I don’t recall anything like this in February, much less the end of October.
yes…remember in an earlier post..I said Cantore
might be soon in a rented SUV (with an unhappy cameraman)
between Snowshow and Canaan Valley by tomorrow.
I just checked the NWS 5:48pm
Cleveland, OH wind speed = 33 mph
Wilmington, NC = 24 mph
Kevin,
What areas of Southwest Virginia would you expect will be getting snow with this storm? And do you have any idea when these areas should expect snow? I just saw a Winter Weather Warning for Washington County Virginia. I am supposed to be traveling from Roanoke to Bristol, Virginia and I am trying to decide when would be the best time to leave Roanoke. Any insight would be greatly appreciated!!!
Thanks!
Here is something to try and wrap your mind around. This storm is absolutely massive.
“Sandy now has the largest Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of any tropical cyclone in history, 222 terajoules (one trillion joules, 10^12).”
http://i46.tinypic.com/2yty4gh.png
Quags…thanks..
Yes I can see it maybe as wave action…
but not mountain wave,,
Mountain wave needs to be more
perpendicular to the obstruction crests.
These winds are , so far , nearly parallel to
he Appys and Alleghenys.
Winds just arent that strong at surface levels
yet to create lee waves especially at 40k feet (just my take)
The wind will pretty much be the same areawide in timing, though high ridgetops may get going a little early. Generally increasing through the day Monday, reaching 20-40 mph with 50-60 gusts by Monday evening and Tuesday, before slowly subsiding into Wednesday and Thursday.
As for snow: Best chances are 3,000-feet plus, close to the Virginia-West Virginia border, and west of Interstate 77. Your best chance to miss snow traveling I-81 to Bristol would be to go as early as possible — some of that highway between Wytheville and Abingdon probably will get some snow by late Monday and early Tuesday.
Already snowing in the far SW tip of Virginia in Wise County. Not directly related to Sandy, but the shortwave riding the polar trough that will help pull Sandy inland.
Found a neat toy to play with from the HPC website…enjoy
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/
You have tp click on the parameters on the right to set the map the way you want it. Shows that WV Blizzard very well.
& Joe…I stand corrected…wave action not mountain wave as in Rocky Mountain Waves. Thank you sire!
This is worth reading — an NWS meteorologist in Mount Holly, NJ, making a personal plea for people to evacuate.
https://twitter.com/reedtimmerTVN/status/262678794266091521/photo/1/large
Mountain wave can happen on a smaller scale in the
east vs the Rockies (and Rockies you dont mess with at all)
..but its rare on the east coast..much deeper into the winter and strong NW winds near the surface.
again,,,everyone be careful tomorrow..both hands on the steering wheel.
Just checked the Bermuda weather service.
Current conditions @19:07 (6:07 est): wind speed = 20 mph
Current conditions @ Wilmington, NC wind speed = 17 mph
This storm is huge!!!! NHC shows tropical storm warnings (East-West) from Bermuda to Wilmington, NC.
Sandy is right between them. OMG
Been outside today raking up leaves and cutting the grass hopefuly for the last time this fall.Much cooler today only made it up to 57,now down to 52.Rain started about an hour ago and is now slowly picking up in intensity.Everyone stay safe and as always great job Kevin on letting everyone know whats going on!Mike
Someone asked which part of Floyd County I am in.
Here is a map.
http://i1183.photobucket.com/albums/x475/puddnheadnissley/whereIlive.jpg
Mike..
Yes…Bermuda is getting and forecast all night
a south wind…actually SSE wind at 18 knots..
Tomorrow from noon till dark winds variable gusts to 55..
after dark still southerly at 50 knots.
Atlantic City 1 3/4 mi vis now…lite rain..NNE winds gusts to 25.
Gradually increasing to gusts of 55 NNW by noon tomorrow..also heavy rain.
Here’s a link from WRVA 1140 AM in Richmond for listening to Dave Tolleris from wxrisk.com. He was on a Special Storm coverage show with host Leland Conway. DT was on at 7:15 PM Sunday night.
http://www.1140wrva.com/player/?station=WRVA-AM&program_name=podcast&program_id=LelandConway.xml&mid=22575634
Hurricane center has issued a statement concerning the switch from
tropical to post tropical. Sandy is going to make the switch at a bad
time for public information flow.
> Because the National Hurricane Center only issues advisories on
> tropical cyclones, there will be changes in the flow of
> information coming out of the NWS when this transition occurs.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_pa_sandyTransition.pdf
Good idea to get this statement out right now, before fingers are pointed.