Comments on: NWS Open House on Saturday; weekend warmth portends generally milder pattern ahead after chilly start to November

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 23:16:59 +0000

I “re-tweeted” this on Twitter on Friday, a pic of the Pilot Mountain wildfire that Doppler Carol refers to.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=1094054&l=934ebe84bc&id=162655917140206

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 23:13:09 +0000

Kathryn was not feeling well today and did not make it to the Open House. As far as I know now, she’s still going to be on Weather Journal Monday-Wednesday. I’ll post something fresh later tonight and leave it for Sunday.

By: Doppler Carol (Floyd County Doppler 2546 ft)

Doppler Carol (Floyd County Doppler 2546 ft) — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 23:07:43 +0000

Yes, it was the highlight of my day to finally meet Griggs, Hokie Trax and Kevin today at the Open House. I did learn a lot on the tour and had a great time. I wish I had been able to meet KP and to have spent more time chatting with you folks.

Got home and have been outside taking care of the animals and noticed a smokey smell in the air and a haze developing. Saw that the wind/breeze was out of the southeast so I am guessing that I am smelling the fire that is on Pilot Mt. down in NC. I don’t think there is another fire around.

Kevin, I still can’t get over how tall you are! Doug and Hokie Trax you both looked like I had imagined.

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 22:26:53 +0000

The NAO and AO daily levels for October 2012 have now been posted by the ncep/cpc. WOW!! What a “NEGATIVE” month! NAO got to more than -2 a couple of times in late OCT, and the AO almost reached -3!! Speak up if any of you want to see the link. No wonder I was wearing wool pants, a stocking cap, and a very warm dickey in late October, and why it only reached 41* here in ROA on this past Monday.

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 22:18:53 +0000

The graph for the 14-day GFS NAO outlook shows another nosedive for the NAO starting on the 21st, the day before Thanksgiving. 3 straight days at -1, then a 4th day that abates a bit to about -0.75. Assuming it verifies, which is still a very sizable if this far out (more than 10 days from now), the tiny increase in temp on the 24th does not necessarily signal an end to the downturn. We should know more by tomorrow’s run, and especially by Monday’s.

Link time: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Bottom-most graph is the one to which I am referring.

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 22:10:51 +0000

Dave Tolleris and I may have a big disagreement about what conditions will be like in JAN-FEB, depending on what happens to the NAO in upcoming weeks. If someone is willing to give me odds (only 19-1, that’s all I ask!!), I might be willing to bet on it …. LOL.

By: Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft

Doug Griggs, SW ROA County, 1420 Ft — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 22:05:22 +0000

Kevin and at least 3 of us who comment regularly were at the Blacksburg NWS event this afternoon. It was great meeting Doppler Carol and her husband, as well as HokieTrax. We got to see one of the storm chase vans up close and personal, too. DC and hubby took a tour a bit before 2 PM, and I took it at 2:20. I waited until the tour was over, then asked one of the NWS employees who was one of the sort-of greeters if he had been at the Blacksburg Office since the beginning of 2011. Alas, no. I had planned on asking him if he remembered the “Bust” snowstorm of Jan. 26th, 2011, and if he could provide any explanation why the NWS issued a Winter Storm Warning during that episode, which caused a lot of us to be puzzled, misled, you-name-it.
Remember that?

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 21:33:38 +0000

Rick: I remember once in the 1990s when the Mississippi River created “lake effect” — er, river effect — snow. Also aware of lake effect snow off reservoirs similar in size to Smith Mountain Lake (not sure about it specifically — but theoretically possible) Anywhere the wind can carry over a fetch of water for a period of time in the same direction with the right temperatures.

And then … there is this from Oklahoma — “power plant effect snow”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pj2O7TXMuwA

By: Rick in Wytheville

Rick in Wytheville — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 18:49:16 +0000

And now I see we have lake effect snow from Pyramid Lake in Nevada.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NVZ004&warncounty=NVC027&firewxzone=NVZ453&local_place1=&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Warning

By: Rick in Wytheville

Rick in Wytheville — Sat, 10 Nov 2012 18:42:09 +0000

Kevin, I never noticed that the Great Salt Lake in Utah can create lake effect snow. Do you know how significant that can be?

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/