UPDATE 10:20 AM, 11/3: Another big East Coast storm? Continued below-normal temperatures for several days … then, perhaps, the switch flips again
UPDATE 10:20 AM, 11/3: A quick-moving disturbance may bring some rain and snow to parts of Southwest Virginia for a few hours early Sunday morning. Amounts will be light and it will be gone quickly. We’ll looking closer at this, and next week’s potential nor’easter, in a new blog post this evening. END UPDATE
UPDATE 6:45 PM: A frost advisory has been issued tonight and Saturday morning for the Roanoke Valley and points generally south and east – Franklin, Botetourt and Bedford counties are included. Localities west of there will also be cold on Saturday morning but the growing season has been declared over, so frost and freeze warnings are no longer being issued for those areas. END UPDATE
UPDATE 10:15 AM, 11/2: A few showers of rain (maybe snow in high elevations) moving through this morning with a weak disturbance sliding southeastward. It won’t be much, it won’t last all day, but it may keep a lid on temperatures again, which might not make the 50s in at least some of our region. END UPDATE
If the map inset at left (and linked here in full size) looks familiar … well, it should. It’s a big low over the Northeast, with lots of isobars (the black lines, connecting points with equal barometric pressure, which signal wind potential when tightly packed), getting pulled inland from the coast, and lots of blue colors for cold air about a mile above the surface (and sinking to the surface) being swept in behind that low. This is not a map of Superstorm Sandy, nor will this storm be Sandy’s clone “superstorm” (let me emphasize that now!), but the potential for a windy nor’easter riding up the East Coast, churning up more waves, is of great concern in the wake of Sandy. Yet the 12Z European model — the one that nailed Sandy extremely well 8 days out — shows such a storm starting near the Gulf Coast on Election Day (Tuesday), then strengthening and tracking to near Cape Hatteras on Wednesday, then up the coast to New England and a bit inland. Several model runs on both the European and GFS models show something similar, though the 12Z Euro is the most extreme for developing the storm farther south and it strengthening it so much over the Northeast. You will note in the Tuesday and Wednesday maps that there aren’t many blue colors near us. It does not appear that there will be a mechanism to push in enough cold air ahead of the storm for an appreciable, widespread frozen precipitation threat ahead of the possible storm system in our immediate area. Being early November, it would take a pretty strong Arctic air mass to set us up for any such situation at all elevations. But if this storm develops and tracks as shown on the 12Z Euro, we would have some windy, showery weather Tuesday and Wednesday before a push of cold air and mountain snow showers behind the storm. Still too far out for details on this, but it is a situation worth following next week for anyone with Eastern U.S. travel plans, as there could be more problems if this comes off. (Euro maps, by the way, are courtesy of North Carolina-based Allen Huffman’s model page, linked here.)
Until this next storm, whatever it is, exits stage right late next week, there is not going to be much change to our overall weather pattern. Temperatures will warm a bit into the weekend with more sunshine but likely stay well below normal, with most highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. No precipitation is expected until this storm maybe bringing some rain showers early next week and possibly snow showers behind it.
For those tired of these gloomy, chilly days … there are major signs of a pattern shift that could bring above normal warmth about 8-10 days from now. This will come at the cost of shifting the East’s active weather pattern into the central U.S. So some more temperature roller-coasting appears likely, though we’ll remain on the low part of the track for the next week or so.
November 2, 2012 - 12:43 AM
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Sunday has a chance of showers but looks like it is early-early in the morning. I have a student group doing a ropes course on Sunday starting at 11. They will need to bundle up some but hoping that the sun might peak out that afternoon.
Hope I get some sun hiking on Saturday but I think I am going to have to invest in a Happy Light….Doug, I think that is why mail carriers always seem happy….they are outdoors, getting exercise and sunshine.
The stars at night
shine big and bright
but the sun wins the fight
deep in the fall of Texas…
same old tune..warm afternoon
like a cracked 78..high of 88
………I know…very bad.
Since 1898 when records began in North Texas
November is the only month that has never reached a
90 degree high temperature… (North of the Heart Part of Texas)
http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/11/02/4382978/forecasters-talking-record-high.html
I sleep in one morning, then hear some raindrops outside. Updated blog post to note them, though they won’t be much or last long. Weak disturbnace moving through. Some of you may even see a little sleet or snow the higher up you are.
Since “Sleepy Head” Kevin { :>) :>) :>) } did not reply to your question on the previous thread, Merle, I will. And this is from Kevin’s posts and comments many moons ago, so I am sure that it is correct. {The first time I learned about the PNA was back in the epic winter of 2009-10, when the AO and NAO had finally returned to neutral for a while, but we were STILL going to get a snowstorm!! Naturally I was ticked off big time.}
The AO and NAO nearly always bring us colder than normal temps in late autumn and winter when they are in the negative phase. The OPPOSITE is true for the PNA. When the PNA is positive, that means that a big ridge is forming in the western half of the U.S., they get warmer than normal temps, and often the eastern USA is colder than normal. So what brings us cold weather is negative AO, NAO and positive PNA.
When the PNA is negative, a big trough develops in the western half of North America, they get colder than normal, and often the eastern half of the continent gets a ridge and becomes warmer than normal. Got it??
Zach, FYI. I replied to your comment on the previous thread also on the previous thread.
My home weather station called for this, actually. Last night I looked at it and it was predicting showers. I thought, nah…this thing is dumb, it’s supposed to be fairly nice. Woke up to a solid blanket of clouds and some weak radar returns.
Merle: I second Doug’s answer.
Got it Doug and thanks to you and Kevin. Also wondering if cold air appears to be building upstream in Siberia or Canada enough that some of it might break off and head south after our warm-up in mid November?
Indian Valley John, do you still read this blog?? I would love to hear from you (for those of you who are new to this blog and/or new to SW Virginia, Indian Valley is in SW Floyd County and has quite a bit of elevation, like most of Floyd County). I was looking back through the Feb. 2010 archives and was reading about the incredibly wet, heavy, big snowstorm of February 5th-6th (still another nightmare come true for me), and read your comment of 3:27 PM on Saturday, Feb. 6th, 2010.
You posted that we could count you in as a member of the “enough already” club. That momentarily made me laugh, but then I continued reading about all the extra burdens all that snow and sleet and ice were causing personally and financially and otherwise. All of which I and Kevin agreed with. It was one of the best comments in my opinion that I have ever read here.
So for some of you snow lovers, be careful what you wish for. Another winter like that one will once again cause huge headaches and pain for most folks, not only most of us letter carriers and others who work outdoors. A wonderful snowfall like we had on Feb 19th of this year was a delight, gorgeous to look at and it caused just about zero problems here because it melted away so quickly. But if a big snow becomes frozen solid …. that’s when all the big problems start and continue. Sorry. End of sermon.
12z Euro still going with the big storm. However, cold air would be extremely marginal. Would likely hold any snow to above 2000 feet or so.
Other John,
If you wouldn’t mind, I’d be interested to know the make and model of your home weather station. Pretty sure my weather radio is a Midland.
Crazy wind here in Woodlawn about 12:30-1:00pm…the day started off cloudy and fairly calm,then I was home for lunch and it felt like Sandy 2 was coming through!! Blew over my cast iron Kokopelli sculpture,and several limbs off the trees!! Gusts over 20mph for 20-30 mins ,then gone…like a summer thunderstorm. Now bright sunshine and gentle breezes…PS I do enjoy your analysis,Doug, of the “letters” (NAO,AO,PNA) (no pun intended) so keep it up!!
We’ve had a reinforcing cold front get slung through today, so that has picked up the wind some.
I hope all you snow lovers read Doug’s last epistle of why too much or too prolonged of a snow is not good. Doug needs to realize that us snow lovers like it to come, get deep and stay. Doug, remember you will never talk us out of being snow lovers. Just a little Friday fun!!!!!
SIR but Six feet of snow in Nicholas County WV on Monday
http://www.register-herald.com/todaysfrontpage/x1501141977/NICHOLAS-CRUSHED-BY-SNOW
Agreed, Michael H. And I also realize that some snow really has several very beneficial side effects. Puts moisture in the ground on a slow seeping-in process usually, so that there is no runoff, unlike a big heavy rainstorm. It also protects the ground from icing up, which (the snow base, that is) can be terrific for my favorite pastime, golf. I have lived through several winters in which it snowed early in the season and the ground remained snow covered, but the snow never really morphed into ice blocks. I remember that the 1994 ice storms did a lot of damage to the golf courses I played that spring. Etc. etc.
But when a big snow base becomes a frozen rock, that’s when I don’t like it. Which is exactly what happened not only after the huge snowstorm of Dec. 18-19, 2009, but also after the two weekend snowstorms in mid-winter 2010. It sounds like you never became a member of the “enough already” club in 2010, did you, MH?
OK, back to the present. I have a weather bulletin …. and a good one, too.
1. Thermometer here in the ROA valley has finally busted through the blocking device that somebody placed on it at 49* starting early Monday morning, and we have reached the mid-50s.
2. There is another piece of good news, but I will allow John, Paul, George and Ringo announce that one, in the following link. I hope that most of you click on it and enjoy the music: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6tV11acSRk
Definitely one of their big classic hits.
It was oh so nice to see the sun this afternoon. Welcome Back Mr. Sun. Of course he had the wind as a side kick but that is okay. I think we may have gotten into the upper 40′s here today.
There is a frost advisory tonight along and east of the Blue Ridge.
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Frost%20Advisory
Growing season has been declared over west of the Blue Ridge, including in the New River Valley.
Early thinking from HPC on precipitation next week: Heaviest stays south and east, through Wednesday AM. I concur, and think even .25 to .50 may be generous.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
An interesting, though somewhat weather-geeky read on some of the early analysis of Superstorm Sandy’s evolution, which may truly be unique in the annals of American weather history:
http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/8243/hybridization-sandy
Quiet night here on WJ. Needed respite for everyone. I won’t post new tonight, will let this carry over until putting something new up Saturday evening.
This should do the growing season in. 38.3* here so I know lower elev. and outlying are at or near freezing. Winds been blowing here all night but looks like it’s rite calm down in the city.
All of us snow lovers are secretly waiting to pop up at the right time. We are eagerly awaiting
DT, who originally said no storm, is thinking now maybe but still skeptical. The 0z Euro does throw moisture back into our region within the freezing aloft line. However, it’s still the only model showing it.
Now if I could only promise myself to take a break from model watching and instead focus on college football!
Very interesting read about Sandy from UCAR, Kevin. Thanks for the link!
Euro for Tuesday evening, a light blue area of barely below-freezing 850 millibar temps (about 1 mile up, generally conducive for snow reaching the surface) in western Virginia almost like a weak cold air damming setup:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS096.gif
The L in eastern Kentucky makes me scratch my head on that a bit. That low position, even weak like that, would probably scour out surface cold air over us, especially this shallow and this early in the season.
By Wednesday evening, deep low off the Virginia coast and lots of cold air pouring in.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif
Peeking at wunderground’s time sequence on the Euro showing snowfall, it actually shows Roanoke as the western boundary of snowfall with most of it in central Virginia arcing into northern and northwestern Virginia. Jared in Greene County would be jumping up and down if this panned out, but would bum out snow lovers Blue Ridge and westward and south of I-64 — taken very literally 5 days out.
We’ll see where this goes.
Aside from next week — a quick-hitting disturbance swinging through in the early morning hours Sunday may trigger some rain and snow for a few hours. Something I’ll note with next blog update this evening.
Well as I have learned over the past few years, you don’t want to be in the bullseye now because most likely it will change by next week. Don’t get me wrong, I would love to have a big dump of snow, heck if its like last winter it might be our only chance! LOL Kevin, How much are they calling for in this area by that model? You know just in case the models stay the course.
0Z Euro was generally 2ish-4ish type wet snow. Newer 12Z Euro is more marginal with the cold air and a wee bit farther east with the low, so the snow doesn’t really get going in earnest until far NW Va. and Maryland.
Yep, Kevin is right in comment above. Still several days out. Thinking mostly rain below Mason-Dixon Line with elevation snow above 2000′. For the northeast, it will be an inland snow with rain in the Megaoplis/I-95 corridor.
Will look into this Sunday PM & update QWC on next week’s storm….time for Bama Ball….Roll Tide!
That figures! Probably our best chance for snow this winter, just can’t buy any snow east of the blue ridge. Oh well maybe we actually will have a winter this year and get a few flakes!
Uhhh, Jared … it’s not close to winter yet. Still 4 weeks til meterological winter starts, 7 til astronomical winter. And this “chance for snow” was a single model run showing marginal wet snow 5 days out.
And it’s not over yet.