UPDATE 12:30 PM, 11/18: Cold air wedge will keep abnormal November chill going, maybe lead to patchy drizzle/isolated freezing drizzle Sunday/Monday
UPDATE 12:30 PM: With a little more sunshine today than first thought, we may see temperatures higher in the 50s than expected. But the cool, damp wedge will likely build back tonight and Monday. END UPDATE
All but 4 of the first 17 days of November at Roanoke, and all but 3 at Blacksburg, have averaged below normal in temperature, as did the last 3 in October at Roanoke and last 4 at Blacksburg. This will be reinforced the next couple of days, as our region is put in the squeeze play between high pressure near Maine and a developing low-pressure system off the Southeast U.S. coast. The resulting east to northeast surface winds will bank chilly, damp air against the mountains, leading to low clouds, some fog and possibly even light drizzle at times late tonight through Monday in the familiar “wedge” or cold-air damming effect we often see. As is typical, locations west of I-77 won’t be affected as much, and will see more sunshine the next couple of days, and even parts of the New River Valley may see a few more breaks in the clouds that the Roanoke Valley or Blue Ridge and points east are likely to. Normals this time of year run upper 50s highs/upper 30s lows at Roanoke and mid 50s highs/lower 30s lows at Blacksburg. With cloud cover thickening, lows won’t be far off those norms, maybe even a tiny bit warmer, but highs will likely fall several degrees short. Highs may struggle to reach 50 in both Roanoke and Blacksburg on Sunday and Monday. There is a chance that a few patches of drizzle may occur in localized spots where temperatures reach the freezing mark or a little below early Sunday, especially in higher elevations along the Blue Ridge. So be careful when driving on Sunday morning, especially on bridges and overpasses at those higher elevations. It won’t amount to much or last long, but all it takes is one patch of ice driven over in the wrong manner to cause a lot of mayhem.
The low itself will stay offshore, with the coast of the Carolinas most affected by wind, some heavy squalls and more beach erosion from lapping waves. The cold air being wedged against the mountains is very shallow — neither the depth of cold air nor the depth of moisture will be supportive of snow. This setup will only slowly unwind, but milder air is likely to arrive by Thanksgiving into next weekend, with widespread 60s probable. A weak disturbance may trigger a few showers on Tuesday, but certainly not much. Thanksgiving Week looks to have relatively quiet weather in most of the East, but remain rather chilly early on.
November 17, 2012 - 5:23 PM
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The coast of NC. is taking a beating again. This will give an idea as to what it’s doing down thar.
http://islandfreepress.org/CatLocalNews.html
I read the NWS print out for Floyd and saw they were mentioning freezing drizzle and was wondering what that was about. Thanks Kevin for answering that with the above post.
Doug – if it doesn’t cloud up too much maybe I will be able to “get out tonight” to see if I can see a meteor shower or two.
Chilly but overall a nice day outside today.
Carol, I would say your general location would have the best chance of seeing some freezing drizzle. Not much, but it doesn’t take much.
Hey Kevin, how about submitting a brief comment with links to the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks maps? They have changed radically from what the humans at CPC have been generating all week, including yesterday. As KM has told in the past, the CPC outlooks are strictly computer-generated on Saturdays and Sundays. In a nutshell, today’s maps show below normal temps up and down the East Coast (except for Maine, of all places), while the West bakes under extreme heat (relatively speaking) centered roughly over Nevada and Utah on both maps. Sometimes I think the computer does a better job than the humans. Maybe it is paying more attention to the expected big negatives for the AO and NAO starting about Wednesday, and minimizing the negative PNA.
At Doug’s request, 6-10/8-14 day maps below:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Remember that the darkness of colors reflects probability of above/below normal temperatures, not necessarily intensity — though the two often seem to be connected.
Scanning through the models, I would say the CPC’s computer-drawn maps look more GFS-driven than Euro-driven over the next couple of weeks. The GFS is more generous in bringing a couple of shots of cold southward after Thanksgiving. The Euro banks a lot of cold in Canada but only starts to bring it south by 10 days out.
Kevin- I know this is way off topic and certainly still a little far out; however; My family and I are going to be in central Florida the second week of December. Could you take a stab at a very general forecast to what we may expect. Thank You for all you do with the blog, there are many of us who depend solely on your info.
Cburg, Mtn: Might want to ask again in a 2-3 more weeks for a better guess on specifics. Climatologically December tends to be one of the drier months in central Florida with average temperatures of low 70s highs/low 50s lows. My best guess now is that it will be just a little cooler than normal based on some of the developing pattern, but it’s only a guess.
Thanks very much for the CPC outlook maps, KM. Do you believe them? Or did you find the CPC outlook maps that were being generated for the last 2-3 days more likely? Or no opinion? I think today’s maps are more likely, frankly.
I looked at the link at the right of NWS forecast map for the 5-day rainfall. The rainfall totals being predicted for the Northern Oregon and Washington coasts are massive, especially in the Olympic Peninsula NW of Seattle. I think there is one number of over 10 inches!!
Also, the CPC updated their monthly forecast map for December on Thursday (the 15th). They are definitely NOT on board for a colder than normal NE next month. Neutral for the entire Atlantic coastline as far as being warmer or colder than normal.
I think it is a bad forecast. I bet DEC will be quite a bit colder than normal for much of the NE USA.
Doug, I would say the CPC maps and the GFS models they’re likely being generated from seem a little too aggressive and fast with the cold air. But there are quite a few mixed signals after Thanksgiving that hopefully will sort out this next week. Many models do seem to want to bank quite a bit of Arctic air in central and northwest Canada where it often masses before plunging into the central and eastern U.S. Maybe a little slower time frame, though, like the Euro hints at.
I just realized something. I think I have been placing too much trust in the 14-day GFS NAO outlook. It is the only one of the three forward-looking graphs that shows a big nosedive. The big negative numbers should be appearing on the 7-day and 10-day GFS outlooks, but they are not there. Weird.
And even the 14-day outlook only has the NAO tumbling to -1 levels now. Looks like there will NOT be such a big cold spell after Thanksgiving weekend, judging from the newest GFS graphs.
Kevin, the low will cause millions in damage to Nc. alone. There will be a lot of homes in the ocean when this is over.
http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/fmtbltn.pl?file=forecasts/marine/coastal/am/amz152.txt
No drizzle this morning. In fact, it is warming up! It was 35 after supper last night; then 36 before bedtime; then this morning it was 38 and now it is 39. Cloudy and overcast last night and this morning so no chance of seeing meteors.
There was a strong solar eruption recently and there may be effects to our weather from this. Next week looks to be milder before the two next storms which will probably be rain/showers. After that December looks to be on the cold side.
As with Sandy, it’s bad timing for OBX on the high tides as well. I just don’t know how many vulnerable homes are left to be dumped in the ocean after Sandy/nor’easter/last year’s Irene.
NWS so far is only playing up “minor overwash” on Highway 12 and some large beach breakers. Hopefully they get by without massive additional problems. It will undoubted exacerbate existing problems, at the least.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ103&warncounty=NCC055&firewxzone=NCZ103&local_place1=&product1=Coastal+Flood+Advisory
Sunspots or solar flares do have an effect on our weather globally and can cause warmer weather when it Is supposed to be cold. In the next 15 years it is supposed to go down to almost none which if theory’s on this is correct the earth will begin to cool off . The weather this week should improve as the week progresses . Still think really cold stuff is 10 days away or so. Temperature was 37 at 6:00 am this morning with mostly cloudy skies. Yesterday was a good day to work outside which I did. The ground is really dry and needs rain, pond is down lower than I have seen it since living on the mountain. Hopefully some rain is in our future, maybe snow to
Home again after 6 days away.
Looks like I missed some stuff and need to get caught up.
For those of you that are keeping track of the CPC weekend maps, I wouldn’t put much into it except that on Monday, new maps will be out and that may tell a better story.
DT @ wxrisk.com put out his updated winter weather forecast last night & is turning up the snow guns for this winter. Looks like the consensus is now saying that this winter is looking more & more like 2009-2010.
If what he says becomes the correct outcome, it may be colder than 09-10 & snowier.
I’m still concerned about a potential east coast event after November 26-27. Updates on website Monday PM.
Right now I think the Nov. 26-27 system ends up being more of an Ohio Valley/Great Lakes track. But it may well help bring in the colder weather behind it. Subject to change of course.
I think the cold air may be there similar to 09-10. Don’t know yet about the wet storm systems. We had repeated soggy storms that season — about 2 of 5 being snow, 3 of 5 being rain. Right now I’m kinda leaning to more of a 2002-03 model with lots small-medium disturbances — and maybe 1 shot at a big storm, like President’s Day storm that buried north of I-64 that winter. Again, subject to change.
I don’t know what the NWS is smokin but they ain’t on the outer banks. Realize that most of the dunes that partially protected RT.12 were washed away and most haven’t been rebuilt. 12 is taking a pure beatin as are houses already damaged by the last storm. That statement sounded more like some eyewash Jim Cantell would throw out.Poor job on getting out the truth. I don’t reckon anybody looked at the link on the OBX.
Also, an employee of NCDOT was killed while removing some of the NWS “minor overwash”.
I guess it’s all relative, WD. Every coastal storm slaps big waves on OBX. What is “minor” there would be considered major on some other coastal areas. Major there is an entire island-swallowing storm surge. But “minor” on top of 2 storms already this fall and Irene from last year and the nor’easters of 2009-10 (Nor’Ida, Dec. 18-19 snowstorm inland, etc) will be causing lots of problems.
BTW, I did click on the link, WD, both last night and today. Unless there is a new incident you are talking about, the NCDOT worker was killed Nov. 11. That doesn’t make it any less tragic, but it doesn’t appear to be part of the current storm.
That said, only 6 inches of swift moving water can knock someone off their feet, so a “minor overwash” can certainly be deadly.
I see some blue sky creeping in from west. With sunshine and already 50 degrees, we may do warmer on temps than expected.
Looks like the impact has been played down. 9′ to 13′ seas isn’t minor anytime, not with 3 straight days of pounding. Also, it seems to be downplayed due to it being offshore further than a name making blow. However, that only allows the fetch to increase. Add all the factors together, including Sandy taking out most of the dunes. The dunes have helped protect the road and surrounding areas for years but they only stay put in a blow if the have sufficient vegatation to anchor them. This time they don’t. Sand pushed off the roadway from the last storm holds exactly zero waves back[nothing to anchor them]. Soundside flooding will be “minor”. Oceanside will end up being as great as Sandy when it’s all over or I’ll miss my guess. We’ll see once the fat lady finishes singing.
I saw an incredible photo comparing 2007 to today on Highway 12 near Rodanthe, NC. The first pic had a 10+ foot dune on the left side of the road protecting the highway. The most recent photo showed no dune at all and the water eating into the highway. Wish I could find that again. Probably saw it on Twitter.
He was clearing the road after Sandy. Again, look at these slides to see what is left of the dune system after Sandy. Click slideshow. Look for dunes. How many do you see? Would you still rate this as a minor impact? Noaa has totally blown this one.
http://islandfreepress.org/2012Archives/11.16.2012-DOTStrugglingWithHighway12RepairsAtTheScurvesMoreFerriesAddedForHoliday.html
Speaking of OBX – yes, I can remember seeing huge dunes on the ocean side near Ocracoke and then going back a couple years later and they were gone! It was amazing to see.
I think the sun is trying to peak out through the clouds – maybe it will be a partly sunny day after all.
NOAA didn’t say Sandy had a minor impact. Let’s see how this system plays out before judging it.
Randy Oakey, I greatly enjoyed your comment this morning. It’s nice to hear that someone else on this blog is aware of sunspots. Guy named Joseph D’Aleo, one of the co-founders of The Weather Channel several decades ago (he is no longer affiliated with them … if he was, there would be no such nonsense as naming winter storms) posted some research about a year ago on sunspots. Said that there was a real divergence of opinion about what the future holds for sunspot activity. There is widespread agreement that over the last 2+ decades we were in two very active sunspot cycles. As you mentioned, active sunspot cycles warm the oceans significantly and cause general global warming. But some scientists (maybe more now?) think it will start waning, perhaps big time in another ten years or so as you mentioned. If they do start going into a truly “quiet cycle,” there will be less warming of the oceans, probably causing a general cooling there. And with the AMO possibly going into a cooler phase in about 15 years …. We will just have to wait and see.
Also, RO, part of me realizes that in the months-long perspective, a very snowy winter would do wonders to reverse the extensive dryness that is going on. Just saw this morning that ROA is now down something like 6.57 inches YTD, and about 1/2 of that deficit has been run up since Sept. 1, I think.
NO, Snow Lovers, I have not become a snow lover. I would rather have a winter like 1998 was here in the floor of the Roanoke Valley, with lots of rain (although we don’t need as much as that winter …. 16 inches fell in just the two months of JAN and FEB).
Captain Glen Q: please aim for Nov. 28th.
No they didn’t. But if I understood the latest forecast, then this storm would have a minor impact. And I don’t need to wait til it plays out before I judge it. The impact can be seen now. I never said they downplayed Sandy, just under estimating the one tearin up jack down there today. Before anybody issues a weather forecast for that area, they should have to made to tour the area and stay there for one of these minor impacts. Sorry KM, none of this forecasting computes with what the real impact is.
Kevin, I agree strongly with what you said about the difference in snowfall between this upcoming winter and 2009-10. Reason? Strength of El Nino.
We had the 2nd strongest El Nino since I moved to Roanoke going on in late 2009, but probably not even an El Nino this winter (if it does materialize, it will be borderline). If the NAO and AO stay/go quite negative and remain there most of the time, I bet the snowfall totals for both ROA and Bburg will be about 10 inches less than 09-10 (didn’t ROA have 43 and Bburg somewhere in the low 50sthat winter?).
But I don’t expect (or even want) a very dry winter like 2010-11 was. Roanoke got only a bit over 2 inches of precip between DEC 2, 2010 and late February.
I just read part of what you posted as a link in your 12:32 comment, wd. Terrible, terrible situation. If you had the funds and authority to do what you wanted in that area, do you have any ideas about what to do for the long run? I guess one starting point would or could be to rebuild the dunes ASAP ….
You might get your wish if the inept service proves correct. Calling for snow here Mon. and Tues. night next week. Would druther see it come on Sat. or Sun. night tho, since that mought put me in the running.
I just looked at last Tuesday’s (11-13) ENSO report. After a brief increase in temps in the 3.4 area of the eastern Pacific, temps have plateau’ed over the last two weeks (maybe a tiny decline) at +0.4 degrees. Stuff I am referring to is in Slide 5, as Rick likes to label them. On Slide 25, the percentage chances of what the El Nino / La Nada / La Nina status will be are now running strongly in favor of them continuing to be neutral over the next 8-9 months …. on that same page back in August the El Nino stage was given the highest probability through DEC or JAN.
Doppler Carol and Kevin, I noticed early this morning on radar that Roanoke city and especially areas of ROA County south of downtown were in the cloud cover from the big coastal low which has been and is brutalizing the O Banks. We drove up to Catawba about 10:45, and as soon as we got north of E. Main Street Salem on 419, the sun started to break through. Was really out from the I-81 overpass on up to Catawba. Same thing coming home. Our home was still in generally cloudy conditions at noon. But an hour later the sun had come out here briefly. Now we are back to no shadows, although it is not a gloomy afternoon, either. It’s 53* here now.
Sunny all day but a little cool here only hit 50 for a high temp.Low this morning 30.Been a great weekend weather wise,and i can`t believe the Redskins finally won a game!Have a great day all.Mike
Just read Dave Tolleris final winter preview and looks great for snow lovers! He states snow coverage in Siberia now is very similar to the fall before 09-10 winter. Also says very clear signals of a strong and persistent -ao and – nap will most likely set up this winter! Love it!! WINNING!!!
Good question Mr. Griggs. Short term- keep patching it back. Long term-move everybody off. That area will never be substainable long term. Only the last 400 years or so has it even been inhabited. People pitted against nature lose every time. I know I sound like a broken record when the subject comes up about their welfare down there and I don’t make excuses for them. But those folks are just like us here in the mountains. Their whole history is there, their memories are there as well as their future. That’s kinda hard to just walk away from. I’ve comm fished and rec fished with a lot of those same folks. I’m what I consider to be fairly well received there. I will never be a native there. So a long post short- Let the sea do what it’s been doing forever. Making the decisions. I’m sure nobody ever considered one day it would be under water. Not in our lifetime. The power to make an earlier call on what to do about it will have to come from a higher being than me. I know what a business would do, they would cut their loss.
Kinda snickering here Mr. Griggs. When I posted at 2:46 PM today about Mon. night and Tues. night snow that was what showed on wundeground. Now they show nothing for those days but a chance for Wed. night. Anybody still believe in the tooth fairy?
Don’t think these pre-Thanksgiving disturbances are going to squeeze much out, be it rain or snow. More likely rain.
Here’s 5-day HPC rain map this week: Shows nothing for us. Bullseye of 1.8 over Hatteras — and massive multi-inch bullseyes over the Pacific Northwest with that constant onshore flow of the northern Pacific storm.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
Looks like by Sunday of this coming week will turn sharply colder and windy but no precip in site. Hopefully this will change and soon. Really strange how a 100 miles or less can make such a big difference from the OuterBanks to Litchfield in the wind and beach erosion. Dunes are very large and very much intact unlike the OuterBanks which are taking a beating.
If it is any solace, wd, I agree with you completely about moving people off the O.B. as far as any permanent residences, but we both know that will never happen. I wondered if you would recommend building an elevated Route 12 with reinforced concrete pillars, so that flood waters would swirl underneath most of the bridge and all of the highway.
Despite all the major damage to the OB in recent years, I don’t think that any of these big storms have been a CAT 5, and perhaps you or Kevin or someone else can tell when was the most recent year that a CAT 4 hit there. Hugo was enormous about 20 years ago, but that made landfall in the Charleston, SC area I am pretty sure.
So what will be the damage to the OB if a true CAT 5 hits there? I bet that it does happen some day. I was an absolute skeptic/doubter that a huge storm like Sandy would ever hit the NYC area and the NJ shoreline so badly, but now that has happened.
Meanwhile, the forecast for the next three days is for continued rain along coastal Carolina, (according to TWC’s online Weekly Planner) but the OB itself might not be in the rainy area on Wednesday. TWC map shows it for Wilmington NC and down to Charleston. But the region that will be hit with rainy weather FOR THIS ENTIRE WEEK(!!) is the coast of northern Oregon and especially Washington State. That’s right, all the way through Saturday. For their sake I hope that does not “verify.” I will see if I can find some rainfall totals for a couple of towns that way.
Oh, and the Saturday TWC map shows light snow for upstate NY, more than 1/2 of Penn., NE Ohio, eastern WV, and yes …(drum roll, please) Hobackville and Eva-ville, AKA Washington County, Virginia. Also Tazewell and Kelly Hoge-ville (Burke’s Garden).
Watched the Ken Burns’ documentary “The Dust Bowl” tonight on PBS. First installment was tonight and final one is tomorrow night. I noticed that the full first episode is now available on the iPad version of PBS. The end of this first episode talks about Black Sunday and I found this link on that storm in April, 1935:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=blacksunday
My dad and his family lived just south of that bad dust bowl area in TX. He says he does not remember Black Sunday but recalls many sandstorms, as he calls them, dust devils, and tumbleweeds growing up there in the 30s and that his mother would not let him out of the house without his broad brimmed straw hat. But bare feet were okay!