UPDATE 11:40 PM, 11/25: Cold morning again Monday, then quick rebound to near 60 by Monday afternoon; maybe a snow flirtation on Tuesday
UPDATE 11:40 PM, 11/25: Another cold morning on Monday, though likely not quite as cold as Sunday — the coldest morning yet this season, officially, with a 20 low at Blacksburg and a 26 low at Roanoke, and even colder in some spots, as low as 16 in Chatham (yes, in Southside) and at Troutdale in Grayson County. Monday will see highs in the 50s, with a few spots possibly reaching 60. There will still be some rain showers early Tuesday as an upper air disturbance and front push through, with some snowflakes not out of the question especially northwest of Roanoke, especially at higher elevations. It will be a quick shot of light precipitation with surface temperatures above freezing at most locations, so likely no big deal in our neck of the woods. The week beyond this looks to have seasonable temperatures for the most part, with lots of 50 highs (40s on Wednesday, right behind the cold front) and 20s/30s lows. A growing concern in much of Virginia with long-term dryness and some breezes is enhanced fire danger — beware. END UPDATE
The Arctic shot will make for a cold Sunday — upper teens to mid 20s across much of Southwest Virginia by Sunday morning, recovering only into the 40s (and maybe some cold spots not that warm) under full sunshine Sunday afternoon. Doesn’t look like the wind will die down enough to unleash radiational cooling full throttle, which could have sent everybody deep into the teens. Temperatures recover into the 50s to low 60s by Monday as winds turn southwesterly ahead of the next wave in the atmosphere.
This next upper-level impulse will be a little bit interesting to snow fans because it will be pulling a little Gulf of Mexico moisture atop cold air forced southward by high pressure to the north. It’s a fairly common setup we refer to as “overrunning” that often produces wintry precipitation in Southwest Virginia. In this case, it appears for now that air cold enough to support a wintry mix on Tuesday will be just north of most of Southwest Virginia, in West Virginia and western Virginia north of I-64. The map at left is from Saturday’s 12Z GFS for Tuesday morning, and shows the 0C/32F line (the blue one) at 850 millibars (roughly a mile up) from southern West Virginia to near Alleghany County and Lexington to the Charlottesville area. The green represents precipitation in the last 6 hours prior to 7 a.m. Tuesday — light green is under .10 inch. Anything north of the blue line would have the potential to have some snow, but as you can see, precipitation amounts are likely to be light. Considering this and marginal surface temperatures, no large-scale winter storm is expected, but the cold air cuts in just enough that some snowflakes may be possible Tuesday, more so the farther north and northwest you are, and the higher up you are, relative to Roanoke. This wave squirts out to sea quickly, and a second shot of Arctic air pours in behind it, probably not quite as sharp as this weekend’s. Beyond that, it looks like for several days after low pressure in the Pacific Northwest and in the central U.S. will dominate the pattern, which may mean milder temperatures gradually move in until, possibly, the central U.S. low slides into Canada and pulls down another slug of Arctic air by the early days of December. There is plenty of cold air parked over widespread and dense snowpack in Canada and over the pole in Siberia, it will just be a matter of when and whether the weather pattern aligns to pull it into the eastern U.S. as we begin moving into winter in earnest in the month of December.
November 24, 2012 - 5:46 PM
RSS feed 
BRR Cold in Hokieburg today but was prepared.
Doug…to answer your many questions…
1. Yes, I was cold but had more than enough layers to keep me warm. I sat in the east stands behind the the UVA sideline in the sun and wind so the east stands bore the brunt of the wind chill. Boy those face masks work.
2. I think everyone (KM, Joe, me & others have mentioned in 1 form or another the importance of the soil moisture in TX, the south & lower plains. Like I keep harping on, if the the southern stream gets active and can bring beneficial rains to those regions, the better the chances of having precip for our area. That’s why it is important to keep a watchful eye on the Drought Monitor. I will update what I can when I get home Sunday back in Goochland on the website. Back to family time in Salem.
Have been out walking the dogs and noticed that the wind has died down! Yahoo!
wdbrand – it has been a 4 dog night this week. We have been keeping the fire in the wood stove going. Thank goodness for wood heat.
Thanks for checking in, Captain. Great move on your part to wear a face mask. Yes, Doppler, having been raised in a snowville area of the nation (Mass.), I learned from a young age to forget about fashion and to wear stuff that will keep you AWAP (As Warm As Possible). You folks at the game, especially you, Glen, really had it rough because you are sitting still 95% of the time. At least nearly all of us letter carriers are either walking (which keeps the circulation and adrenaline flowing) or sitting in a postal truck with a heater. Those dickeys are great for keeping the throat area warm, and our postal sweaters are fabulous. And they even make relatively thin gloves with good gripping power that have decent warmth to them, too.
I am grateful that I no longer have to deliver the 1800s-2100s of Moorman Avenue any more. Brutal wind chills for a city location with a westerly or north-westerly wind.
Keep those comments from “the Garden” coming, please, Kelly. You have a fan club 100+ miles east of you!
And here’s where the HPC thinks the snow will be on Tuesday. Good, since I picked a January date for the first one here.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
Hey, clarkdocvet, your home town was mentioned by Jay Webb on MY19 at 6:20 PM this evening (WDBJ7 was showing the Alabama massacre of Auburn). Live report of a few places with steady wind speeds and the gusts. Woodlawn had an 18 mph wind with a gust to 37. They did not show the temp then, but now a location in Hillsville is 24. That translates to a wind chill (using the old chart) of close to 0.
By the way, a location listed only as “near Chateau Morrisette, Floyd (County)” is 20.5* right now. Per wunderground.
Rick: That’s where the HPC thinks there might be 4-inches-plus. Not just 1 inch, which is all that matters for the contest. But I would agree that it won’t be happening this week in Roanoke or Blacksburg. Almost certainly not in Roanoke, very likely not in Blacksburg.
To that end, HPC does put low-end percentages of 1-inch of snow into our part of the state.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2012112500f072.gif
I expect that will shrink and lift north over the next couple of days — but you never know for sure, worth keeping an eye on.
Hey, snow lovers, want to read something funny? The Chairman of the Snow Haters Club is rooting FOR a small snowfall on Wednesday, not Tuesday. Nancy picked that date as the first one-inch snowfall for both Bburg and ROA. Moon is full on that date at 9:46 AM. But it looks fairly big and full right now. Getting high in the sky, too.
I didn’t enter the snowfall contest but I’m going to predict the first 1″ of snowfall for Roanoke and Blacksburg on a date that frequently gets or calls for snow….DECEMBER 5th!
I just looked at the Daily Climate site for one thing, and noticed something truly alarming. We all know that it has been pretty dry for many weeks. Well, Roanoke got soaked on September 18th, 1.73 inches (2.33 when one includes the rain on the 17th). Since that Tuesday, Roanoke has received a total of 1.86 inches!! That amount of time is well over two months (67 days to be exact). Details: 0.01 over the last 12 days in SEPT, 1.30 in OCT, and only 0.55 this month. Those statics compare closely with the winter drought of 2010-11. Roanoke got something like 2.2 inches between DEC 2, 2010 and FEB 22nd or 23rd, 2011.
Blacksburg has fared quite a bit better starting with Sept. 19th, but that ain’t sayin’ much. Late SEPT: 0.13 inches. OCT: 1.72. Thus far in NOV: 0.95, for a total of 2.80 inches. Still WAY below normal for 9+ weeks.
Scott you may very well end up correct. I will try to remember to give you a big “ATTABOY” here if it does happen. I will be ticked if that happens, because Dec. 5th is a Wednesday. Nancy chose the Wednesday before that, and I picked 12-12-12, the Wed. after that.
Without any more rain, this would be Roanoke’s 7th driest November in 101 years of records. It will take .31 this next week to get it out of the top 10 driest. HPC puts us on the bubble of that next 5 days:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
Something of a tease…
snowlovers…if you please..
http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2012/11/syracuse_area_resembles_a_snow.html#incart_river
It’s on my bucket list of weather events to experience, Joe: A lake-effect snow band. One of those that pops out 30 inches of talcum-like powder while the sun is shining on bare ground 10 miles away.
I walked the Little Blonde Man at 9:00, and noticed clouds in just about every direction (except due east) except overhead. If those clouds had been dropping moisture (and at 29* it almost certainly would have been snow), ROA would have been in a dry hole. Pretty sight; moon almost straight overhead.
Almost no win now. Temp has dropped to 26*. Going to 23 or 24?
Almost no WIND now, that is. Peeked at the teletubbies outlooks, and SOMEBODY is going to really be in the icebox for temps in a little over a week. AO drops to -3 on the GFS 10-day and 14-day outlooks, and quite a few other strands on the ensemble group agree with GFS. One other model takes the AO straight off the bottom of the graph, and the bottom of the graph is -6!!! I don’t remember seeing that before. PNA going to neutral in early December, it looks like.
Kevin…
A question for both you and Kathryn P..
I was looking at work tonight at both the alignment/
orientation of NY Fingerlakes.
They are largely what they are because of deep glaciation.
Does Geology overlap Meteorology in this scenario?
Was protracted lake effect snows a factor in piling up
these glaciers in these valleys?
The orientation of these lakes is just about on the same vector
as the winds today that affect the snows we see off the lake..
Especially until the machine shuts off when the Great Lakes freeze over capping the moisture kettle.
It may have more to do with incidental orientation associated with geomorphology long before the Pleistocene..but Id like to throw it out for discussion.
Here’s a link on the Finger Lakes and lake-effect snow. Very interesting to me that they never freeze over because they’re very deep. That would certainly enhance lake-effect snow.
http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc/microclimates/examples/IC4_fingerlakes_les.pdf
I would think your theory abou the protracted lake effect snow and glaciers sounds plausible, Joe.
Kathryn’s core studies have been in geography with applications in meteorology. She might have some more insights on this. I’ll see if I can get her on here.
Still breezy at my place. My inside/outside thermometer is on the fritz though, so I won’t be able to see what it gets down to at home. Probably just needs batteries, but I’m not going out to check on it tonight.
Heavy frost and 20 degrees in Burke’s Garden this morning. At least the wind has calmed. Gonna be cold feeding the cattle this morning.
Good Morning Weather Bloggers – it was 19 up here on the ridge last night at 11 pm and then 19 when I got up. Thank goodness the wind machine cut off last night. Today is “looking good”.
Kevin, those lake effect snows were wonderful. I grew up in northeast Ohio right on the southern edge of the snow belt. I only remember missing one day of school and that was because the boiler broke down. But I loved the snow – guess that is why I am one of those “TWLS’ers”. Joe – what a tease about that Syracuse snow.
Chateau Morrisette on wunderground. Hmmmm – That would be at the southern end of the county and right around the Floyd Fest site. Mabry Mill is not too far down the parkway from there. I will have to check the site out.
Dave Tolleris has a good read this morning on why a deep dip in the Arctic Oscillation won’t necessarily mean a cold outbreak in the East until the conditions over the Pacific and Bering Strait change.
http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/11/ao-arctic-oscillation-about-to-turn-strongly-negative-cold-dec-on-the-way/
AO- with the continued PNA- likely means the severe cold would go somewhere else — until the Pacific pattern changes, which may be 2 weeks or more away.
Wow, 20* in BG and 19 at Carol’s Doppler site ….. those are truly cold temps. I was at 27 when I awakened briefly at 6:40 AM, so I had the same situation as you, DC, no further drop in temps after 11 PM. I was at 29* about 8:30, which made me colder (by only a degree in some cases, I must admit) than a ton of places further north (such as Boston, Philly, NYC, Dulles, etc.)
Partially because I am either inside my postal office or busy paying attention to loading up the truck or driving/delivering and i don’t have a chance to look into the skies, but this morning was Contrail Central in the skies overhead. Could see about 7 or 8 at the same time, with some being many minutes old and others “in progress.” Aren’t contrails a sign of excessively dry and cold temps aloft?
Agreed, Kevin, about the AO and PNA. But doesn’t a steeply negative AO mean that some location somewhere (could be near Hudson’s Bay in Canada, for example) will be way, way below normal?
89 degrees on Rangali Atoll in the Maldives this afternoon…(we are 11 hours ahead of you in VA) water temperature is 82 degrees down to 90 feet. No thermocline at all…I’ve shown a few of the locals pics of snow. They are thrilled to see them! Saw your post about Woodlawn,Doug..I bet we were below 20 at my house this morning!!
We dipped to a chilly 17 last night, the coldest of the year. Had some flurries yesterday morning too. The winds on Friday mostly stripped the leaves off the last couple of trees too, so hopefully I’ll get a day soon to mow one last time and clean up the leaves.
This is the same setup that killed our winter last year! DT is still thinking something is going to flip in the middle of December to give us a winter. Kevin, do you have any idea what he is seeing to make this happen? He still says that January, February and March is going to be cold and snowy!
Kevin…I spent the winter of 2008 in Rochester NY working on a contract job for Kodak and experienced many lake effect squalls. Always impressive to see off in the distance and then drive into one to near zero visibility in a matter of seconds.
I learned real fast to keep a small shovel in the car and upgraded all my winter gear. The bad thing was you had to park your car at an external lot outside the fence line and walk about 3,000 feet to your building, so you were nice and cold when you got back to the car and had to dig out so you could leave. The other tip was to leave your wind shield wipers pointed out so they wouldn’t stick to the glass and it was easier to clear the 10″ of snow off the car!!
Jared, I will give you the quick version of what DT says will make the truly long-lasting cold weather come here and mostly stay. Kevin is often busy with other stuff (such as his personal life!) on Sundays. It is a switch in the PNA oscillation from its current negative status to positive levels. Positive PNA means a big ridge in the western half of the continent, and is often accompanied by a deep trough (cold weather) in the East. The outlooks are now showing that trend (toward a + PNA).
Oops. I will take back what I just posted, Jared. DT had called for a change in the PNA to + in an article several days ago, but in the one that Kevin provided a link to at 9:59 today, he (DT) has changed his tune. Thinks that the PNA will remain negative well into December now. So that seems to be the most important “teletubby” to monitor over the next few weeks. And only some of the outlooks show the PNA going to neutral, not all.
Jared: There was a lot more at work than just what we’re seeing now last winter. AO and NAO were pretty much constantly strongly positive, until very late in the season, when the AO went negative, but the coldest air was shunted elsewhere (Alaska, eastern Europe). All the switches were against cold and snow last winter. This year, as of now, not even quite into meteorological winter, there is only 1 switch left to flip to at least give a chance of cold/snowy pattern. Big difference.
Hey, Jared and just about everyone else here, isn’t it great to have Kevin around to explain why it won’t be all that cold here (overall) for the next ten days or two weeks, even though the NAO and AO are going deep sea diving??
Hey, Paul, that is a superb piece of advice about keeping the vehicle’s windshield wipers up (provided that it won’t be real windy) if the car will be outside during a snowstorm. It is also much easier to scrape the windshield if it ices up. Or to use one of those aerosol things that melts ice on contact when sprayed on an icy windshield (I have never used one of those spray cans, so I don’t know if they work). I hope that you come back and offer that advice here immediately before or during our first snowstorm.
Once I intentionally left my postal truck’s wipers up during an icy overnight event. My boss questioned me about it the next morning. I got back in after easily clearing my windshield, while other carriers were struggling with wipers that were frozen to the glass. I told him to ask the other carriers if they wished they had done the same thing …. He got back to me in a few minutes and said, “Nice move, Griggsy.”
I think a big cold outbreak is just about inevitable this winter, something lasting 2+ weeks with some single digits lows, maybe even below zero. Just too much cold building north, it’ll crash south sooner or later. I’m not solidly convinced one way or the other on the snow aspect of this yet. Been an awfully dry pattern for us. Of course, it takes less than an inch of rain equivalent to give us a 6-8-inch type snow, so it doesn’t take a super-soaker of a pattern for a decent snow event or two.
On the whole, I think snow lovers should be more encouraged than discouraged that it’s not flooding south to start December. It won’t be running its course by Christmas and turning mild the rest of winter like 1989-90.
Hi Joe. Fascinating question/observation! As Kevin mentioned my background is in meteorology and geography so this topic tickles my fancy. As you mentioned the finger lakes were caused by glaciation, especially because they are literally glacier scars as they scratched and gouged out the landscape in that region. That’s about the extent of the knowledge I have on the finger lakes, but taking a stab for discussion sake if that area was iced over at that time lake effect snow likely didn’t exist yet…and likely didn’t start until melting initiated. With that said we could argue a “what came first the chicken or the egg” scenario because the Great Lakes themselves were formed by the Wisconsin glaciation. So….while glaciated I don’t think lake effect snow occurred, yet we would not have lake effect snow without that glaciation. My two cents!
I agree with your advice to us (90% of us are snow lovers), KM. It looks MUCH more likely that the PNA will go to +, and that will allow all that cold air to come south, than it does for either the AO or NAO to flip to positive. I would not be surprised to see an icebox for 4 or more weeks, given the 2 big precedents of October snow cover in Siberia. And I also agree with you very much that moisture will be the enormous issue this winter, not the lack of cold air.
Turning to the very short run, both TWC and the NWS agree that rain/precip chances start climbing about 3 or 4 AM Tuesday for Roanoke. Time with the highest “POP” seems to be 7 AM until noon. Whatever the HPC comes out with for rainfall(/”snowfall”) estimates, I will be a bit skeptical, especially for ROA and points east. Extremely dry air locked in place here.
HPC 1-inch snowfall probabilities for Tuesday — as I would, expect, continuing to shift northwest, still a slight chance basically west of I-81.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2012112600f048.gif
Rainfall projections are .10-.25 generally west of I-81 and north of Roanoke, less to south and east.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif
Oh yeah I remember 89-90! 7th grade and missed all of December up until Christmas break. I remember it being ridiculously cold because the snow and ice just would not melt. However after we returned after the new year the weather got crazy warm, I almost think it got close to 80 a few days that winter. Sure is weird how weather works sometimes!
Back from the parade. It went very well and the winds were not too bad. A good time was had by all.
Not good to hear that this system coming through on Tues/Weds is going more north of us. We need to have some type of moisture over the next couple months.
Let Snowshoe get the snow… I’ll settle for a bit of rain for now.. and since I’m about to order a set of those “short skis” (skiboards), I’ll settle for them getting the snow! For KM and KP.. is there a certain square mileage that will cause lake effect snows? I know that the larger lakes would create the most moisture pick-up, but has anybody ever researched the “critical mass” on lake effect snows?
Yes Kathryn..
I had basically come to the same conclusion
with that same reasoning.
It would be a very tight balance between
having the lakes just above freezing for
long enough to fill those valleys with
frequent blasts of lake effect..but would
more expansive shorelines tip the equation
enough…was the NW wind more prevailing then?
Just some things to ponder.
Matt: Considering snow squalls have been triggered by fetches of wind crossing the Mississippi River and also from the steam plume of a power plant, it doesn’t take much area size with the right conditions to trigger lake-effect snow.
Matt…
Here is a good bit on lake effect even here in Texas..
with extremely localized fetch and having to have just the right conditions.
Everything is relative!!
This has a nice graphic of the streamers on satellite and radar.
This is far east Texas and western La.
http://gdadeblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/lake-effect-snow-in-east-texas.html
Reporting in from Columbus where it has been sunny and cold today. On the drive up, most of WV was cloudy. Traffic heavy on 77 but doesn’t sound as bad as 81. Driving back on Monday.
I just checked on rainfall totals for three cities that I think are in the Southern Plains: Topeka, KANS.; Tulsa, OKLA; and Dallas. All three have been very dry at least since September 1st, which is how far back I looked.
Topeka: Actual for the nearly 3 months from Sept. 1 through yesterday: only 3.27 inches, while normal is 8.57. 1.27 inches in Nov. but only 0.10 inches in OCT after the 13th.
Tulsa: Actual is 5.64 inches, while the normal is 10.92 inches. Only 1.11 inches in NOV so far, and practically none in OCT after the 13th. {2.65 inches fell in Tulsa on OCT 12th-13th}
Dallas: Actual is the same as Topeka, 3.27 inches (I checked the totals for both cities 3 times, and each city had different monthly totals); normal is 7.21 inches. Practically zilch this month (0.01), and only 0.65 in OCT.
Conclusion? The southern Plains have been nearly as dry as Roanoke over the last 12 weeks. The conceivable good news is that the winter drought of 2011 ended fairly abruptly here after 12 weeks, in very late February. So if that 12-week run were to repeat itself, with an impending end to the dryness, the faucet would be turned back on not only in KS-OKLA-TEX, but also here just about now. The bad news is that the end of the dryness (especially in those 3 states in the southern Plains) does not appear to be ending anytime soon.
Interesting on Sunday morning that Piedmont low spots like Chatham (16), Lynchburg’s airport (18) and Martinsville (19) got a lot colder than some of the mountain areas we typically expect to be colder (Burkes Garden was 25). Winds probably calmed faster in those areas and true radiational cooling developed more readily.
Updated this blog entry rather than start fresh since we’re carrying the same general ideas into Monday/Tuesday — 50s to near 60 high Monday, chance of light rain showers Tuesday, maybe some snow to northwest of Roanoke, but not a lot of anything.
In line with the discussion on lake effect snows.
..Lake temps from early summer.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/great-lakes-water-temperatures-at-record-levels
And the fire danger problem is manifesting — for the 2nd time in 4 days — on Bent Mountain.
http://www.roanoke.com/news/breaking/wb/317190
The first fire over the weekend I saw and reported it. Saw the smoke pretty soon after it started. Can’t see the smoke from this one tho.
Im liking the looks of models between Dec 5th and beyond. GFS throws some chances out there for white stuff
http://tinyurl.com/bqcsf3u
It has been clouding up over the last hour – coming in from the west/northwest. Temps are around 57 currently up here on Doppler Ridge.
I think winter’s going to be like last winter…mild!! Accuweather goes way out in time now from the previous 15 day outlook to almost 25 days, which YES, is ridiculous and they have almost the entire first half of the month nothing lower than 54-degrees. The first week all in the 60′s. I give up, that ruined my day! Where is this heavily advertised cold winter they called for? November, for the most part, has been cool, with cold nights! November has also been very dry so why should December be any different? We’ll see I guess!
Can’t speak for anybody else, but I was plumb tickled to get a day like today. Got the rest of the yard decorations out, the rest of the lights on the outside trees, and everything all wired up and tested. Good lick all the way around. Rain would shore be nice. DC, you see the smoke on your side of the mountain? Can’t see it here.
Joe I imagine NW winds were around during that time. However, I wonder how strong they were because if the majority of the land area around those latitudes were covered in snow/ice there would have been less of a temperature difference between northern cold and southern warmth to fuel the strength of the winds? A great discussion!
Multiple fires now in the Blue Ridge area of 460.
Paul of Bonsack, thanks. I was about to get on here and say that I could see a good-sized area of smoke somewhere north of downtown ROA at 4:50 PM.
Nice sunny morning and early afternoon, and then it clouded up in a hurry. Nearly every workday morning, I print out the hourly forecast for the 24017 zip, and today’s forecast gets an A+. They said sunny until 2 PM, then partly cloudy, and mostly cloudy after 4.
Scott: Write down those 10-25-day Accuweather temps and see how close they are.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha. Kevin’s 5:37 comment. Perhaps you didn’t intend it to be funny, KM, but it sure “struck” me that way. Scott, are you willing to post those forecasted temps from “AccuWeather?” If not, and if I can find them, I will. I am very similar to Kevin in one way. We both love statistics and lists.
I remember a couple of years ago someone commented that Accuweather was predicting something like a 62-degree high in late winter fifteen days ahead of time. Of course they changed that day’s forecast as it got closer and closer. Anyway, the day actually had a high of 42.
I was also very pleased with today’s weather, wd. I had only one complaint … I had to work it. Otherwise I would have been out late this morning “goofing” around, if you catch my meaning.
62/40 high/low today at Roanoke averaged to 7 degrees above normal.
56/29 at Blacksburg was 3 above normal.
Mr.Griggs, the link is below.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/roanoke-va/24011/weather-forecast/331253
If that forecast holds, the only ones crting the blues will be snow lovers and home heating oil companies. But when they cry foul to the SCC because their share holders didn’t get a dividend, they’ll get it back. Bend over AMERICA!!!!!!!!!
Here you go Griggsy and Kevin…..
Accuweather..as of now…
December….
1. 59~44
2. 66~46
3. 67~44
4. 64~42
5. 63~42
6. 60~42
7. 62~40
8. 54~37
9. 55~38
10.61~34
11.52~33
12.52~34
13.47~35
14.44~36
That’s not as extreme as I thought it would be. 60s the first week of December are possible with PNA- pattern, though I think it’s a little warm with some tendency for cold-air damming patterns to slide east of the thrust of the warmth as we’ve seen in November. Accuweather’s temps fall back to near normal for highs/near-slightly above normal for lows most of the 2nd week of December. Seems to fit the general idea that there may be at least a somewhat colder pattern after the 1st week of December.
Certainly nothing there that would lead one to calling off winter even if it verified perfectly.
No, wdbrand – have not seen any fires. Haven’t smelled smoke either. Are the fires close to you?
Thanks, Scott and wd. I will fill out the rest of the schedule. Since today has already happened, the last day is day 24 (I am counting tomorrow as Day 1).
(Sat.) December 15: 53-35 (and rainy ….. rats, I have that weekend off, and I was thinking of attending the annual Mount Union / Wisconsin Whitewater game …. oops, allegedly the Alonzo Stagg Bowl for the Division 3 championship).
Dec. 16: 52-36.
17: 49-32.
18: 42-29.
19: 41-28.
20: 42-25.
I took my son on a hiking adventure today walking to the top of Stuart Knob in Fairy Stone State Park on the Patrick/Henry county border. (Somewhere near where blog commenter Merle Spencer lives, I believe.) Wonderful day for it — just cool enough not to sweat on the uphill climbs, but not cold enough for anything more than our matching red hooded sweatshirts. Visibility was good in all directions — not enough fires yet for smoky obscuring.
If we’re sitting there with low 40s highs/mid 20s lows Dec. 20, we’ll be in business for winter storms if there are any prospective systems at all to take advantage of the cold.
I will say, for what it’s worth, the latest GFS hints at a pattern right at the end of its run that might set up for a winter storm threat around Dec. 13-15 or so, but of course, I don’t really believe it that far out.
Actually, their forecast covers thru the 19th of Dec. What hit me in the face was the fact that they haven’t any temps down to freezing til the 18th and 19th, and then only 29* and 28*, not counting the 17th which shows 32*, unless I over looked it. That, in itself, will be a blessing, full of holiday cheer for many, many folks. And my woodpile. Bear in mind, this is only for zip 24011. Tuesday night thru Thurs of this week has temps at the lowest of 30*, 29* 31* and from then on, above freezing til close to the end of the forecast period.
And of course this will be a moot discussion by then, it’ll be off 10-15 degrees one direction or the other on many days. Not picking on Accuweather, anyone’s forecast for specific temperatures at a specific location would miss that much for at least some days beyond 2 weeks out. The broad trends their forecast is showing do generally match most other sources, though, so no major gripes from me.
DC, it’s off Rte. 612[Poor Mt. Rd. and with the winds today, I doubt you could smell it[basically out of the SW for most of the day]. I can’t see it nor any smoke from it here at the shack. Thought you might have seen the smoke altho it’s a small fire. Well, on second thought, dry as it is, there ain’t no sech thing as a small fire loose in the mounteens.
As the 0.6″ of snow was accumulating in Blacksburg back in late October during Hurricane Sandy, I was overcome by a very eery/sick feeling that this may be it for snow this year. Imagine if the biggest snow of this winter (a remarkable 25″ at Snowshoe) falls before Halloween! Certainly not looking too good for snow at least through December 14th.
As long as the forecast is viewed as eyewash and making news, everybody will be fine.
Great observation Kathryn..
Lighter rather than stronger NW winds
may have been even more conducive to more
localized lake effect. Even if the lakes were
a little cooler the lighter winds may have protracted
the pull. Maybe the air dried out almost completely
before making central NY state. If the systems moved
a little slower because of the lack of difference in the
heating of the landmasses it could have been a setup for maybe
days on end of 15kt NW winds. Shut the front door!!!
For West Virginia’s mountains, I wouldn’t be surprised a bit if Sandy was the biggest snow of ’12-’13 — even if there are a few perfect Miller A’s that roar up the East Coast.
For Blacksburg, if that 0.6 is the biggest of the “winter,” that would be historic.
I still think there’s just too much cold air building to the north for it not to sag south sooner or later, and that would be good enough for an accidental couple or three small-medium snow events even if we tilt cold/dry this winter.
Kevin, if you’ve not done it already, you need to hike Buffalo Mountain in Floyd County sometime. A great view, especially after a cold front passes and clears the sky.
Remember, folks, I picked Dec. 15 for the first snow, while saying I thought most of it (26 for Roanoke, 31 for Blacksburg) would be after Jan. 1.
Fourth graf from the bottom: http://www.roanoke.com/weather/wb/316354
So far, it’s playing toward my ideas — though that will probably be out the window on Dec. 16 or so.
Johnny: Hiked Buffalo Mtn. about 2002 or so. Sure I’ll be back there again. Great view from NC to Sharp Top and beyond.
After a cold weekend only hit 40 yesterday for a high,low this morning 26.Today made it up to 53 here.Back down to 36 now with a chance of some cold rain overnight.
Johnny of KHLX and Kevin, have you viewed Buffalo Mountain from the BURP? From one specific spot somewhere between Tuggles Gap (where SR 8 goes underneath the Parkway) and Mabry Mill on a clear day you can really see why it was named Buffalo Mntn. Has a hump very similar to that of a buffalo from that angle.
Yes,a hike up the Buffalo on a clear day is recommended. I haven’t done it in years so need to hike up to the top one of these days. Even though I am in the northern end of the county and the Buffalo is towards the southern end, you can see it from my road. I understand that the path up the mountain has greatly improved recently – not as rugged as when I hiked up.
As much as I want snow – it cannot snow the weekend of Dec. 14-16 – that is when I am celebrating Thanksgiving and Christmas with all of the family. I am calling it “Thanksmas”. Keep the snow at bay – please!
Scott Saunders and Blacksburg Mike, hold on there, guys! If I was a snow lover I must admit I would be disappointed that the next 2 weeks or possibly even 3 may be warmer than normal or normal for temps, but we have not even started meteorological winter.
I am the snow and cold hater, but I see no way that this winter will end up anything like last winter, and especially for temperatures. Those AO and NAO oscillatns continue to run consistently negative (the AO might really dive deep at some point in the next two weeks), so as Kevin mentioned, all that is needed is a flip of the PNA and the cold weather will be here. The PNA can’t stay negative for all that long, IMO. Even if it just goes to neutral, that ought to allow the Canadian cold air to visit.
The big thing for the 90% to worry about is a flip of either the NAO or the AO to positive. THAT would cause things to resemble last winter, especially if they both flip to +. Absolutely no sign of that.
Kevin,
I’ve hiked Stuart’s Knob many times. Love the views. Went a month ago and saw many bear signs and a pheasant for the first time since I was a kid. Were you able to find any fairystones? Thats in a 3-mile swath that stretches back east to where I live. I have them in my yard everywhere.