UPDATE 11:30 PM, 11/5: Frosty morning on Tuesday; new East Coast storm’s main effects likely stay well east of SW Virginia
UPDATE 11:30 PM, 11/5: More frosty morning lows in the upper 20s and low 30s (already there on my thermometer) on Tuesday morning. No frost/freeze advisories are out since growing season has been declared over in our region as of Monday by the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. Still looks like brunt of nor’easter’s effects will be well north and east of us. No serious weather hindrances to voting in our region on Tuesday. Will plan to update with a new blog post sometime Tuesday, perhaps in the evening. END UPDATE
A cold morning is ahead with freeze warnings north of Roanoke and frost advisories from Roanoke southward – and none of these to the west where it will likely be even colder but the growing season is considered over. After lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s in most of Southwest Virginia, highs Monday will only make the upper 40s to mid 50s most places, before similar lows Tuesday morning.
All indications are that a significant low-pressure system will develop along the Atlantic coast by Tuesday and move north to north-northeast along the coast through the remainder of the week, bringing wind, rain, waves and to many locations already battered by Superstorm Sandy. At this time, it appears that Southwest Virginia will be on the periphery of the storm’s effects … in fact, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has an obvious sliver of light precipitation amounts signaling a “rain shadow” from about Roanoke south into western North Carolina. It just appears from the various model depictions that phasing of the jet stream branches north and south will occur a bit late for the storm to deepen far enough south for significant effects in our part of Viriginia. What our area may get, as is often the case with nor’easter type storms that come together off Hatteras or a little farther north, is some of the disturbances moving through that go into the larger storm. These may trigger periods of showers — rain and/or snow — Tuesday and Wednesday, but heavy precipitation is not expected. For now, it appears that heavy rain will be limited to the eastern half of the state, with significant snow potential at higher elevations mainly in the northern half of the state — and even that is iffy. There is still significant wiggle room on this forecast over the next 2-4 days as this storm comes together, but I would expect at this point that any wiggling would be for the storm forming farther north/east or later, and having even less effect on our weather.
The nor’easter will keep some breezy, colder than normal weather (40s-50s highs, 30s lows) going through Thursday, before a warmup begins as upper winds turn out of the southwest ahead of what is likely to be yet another powerful storm system, this one in the central U.S.
November 4, 2012 - 9:39 PM
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Kevin would you agree that after this week milder temps will prevail with some cold periods between now and Dec. 1. No real snowfall before then. Personally I think this winter will have more snow than last year but not starting untill Jan 2013. The snow fall that does come may stick around for a while since temps will remain on the cold side. Winter will average colder and snowier than normal. This opinion is based on what I have read on numerous other sites and some on feelings having lived here for over 59 years
Generally that is my expectation too for rest of November, too, Randy. Not sold yet on the cold/snow holding off til January. Kinda expect an early round in December, than a break around Christmas, and more in new year. As for what I expect relative to normal — hope to finally get my winter outlook out this Wednesday after a 2-week Sandy delay.
Holding at 35.1*. Only scattered frost here if at all. Think the valley will catch this one.
26 F and light frost as the sun comes up here on Doppler Ridge this morning.
Doug, you would probably be able to see the Doppler when you are about 9 miles north of Floyd. The landmark is an area called Stonewall – a couple churches and a road on 221. Check and Copper Hill are further towards Roanoke on 221.
We finally had our first true freeze in my neck of the NRV. After several mornings bottoming out at 33 or 34, we dipped to 28 degrees last night, with our first true frost on all surfaces as well. We picked up a nice 0.31″ of rain Saturday evening and overnight…for all of the Sandy-influenced weather, we got 0.27″ of total precip, about half of which was white rain.
First freeze of the year officially at Roanoke Regional Airport with a low of 31. At my location south of Roanoke at about 1400 feet, my thermometer shows 30 as the low.
HPC maps on 4-plus and 1-plus show significant snowfall only brushing far northern Virginia through Thursday morning.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge01_2012110512f072.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
Euro model is a little more aggressive with the snow, covering the northeast half of Virginia with some, but doesn’t get it into Southwest Virginia.
There will be no more frost/freeze advisories issued. Growing season declared over throughout NWS-Blacksburg’s forecast area.
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201211051341-KRNK-NOUS41-PNSRNK
Instead of showing light-green less than one-tenth inch rain area in part of SW Virginia, HPC map this morning now shows a big white hole of no precipitation in much of our region.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
I don’t like the donut hole of no precipitation. We sit 3.5″ short for the year, not helped by an abnormally dry summer and October. At this time of the calendar year, this is the dryest it’s been in the 4 years I’ve been recording daily precipitation…and through the spring (early June) we were pretty much right on track with the long-term averages.
First freezing temp in Goodview as we hit 31 this morning. We were out of town this weekend and I didn’t expect anything so I did not keep up with my readings, but apparently we received .18 inches of rain Saturday night/Sunday morning. Looks like it started around 10:30pm and was light but steady through about 1am or so.
I was hoping that some of the remnants of this Nor’easter would swing into our area, but it seems that it isn’t going to make it in this far. My kids and I have been shopping for new snow boots and snow suits, hoping for some reasons to use them this year! :>)
Lowest temp I saw here this morning was 34*, the lowest this season, but that was 4 feet off the ground. Probably got to 33. The grass was twinkly in the light from my flashlight a little after 6, and as I drove out there were some tiny indications of frost in the mulch near my mailbox.
Thanks for the shoutout about how to find the Doppler dish, DC. Next time I am up that way I will look for it about 4 miles before Check when heading north. Yesterday I was tired of all the twisty roads and just wanted to get home.
And Nurse Snow, I can practically guarantee that you and your kids will get a couple of chances to the new snow boots this winter. With the negative NAO in place, this winter at this point sure looks more like 2010 and 2011 than 2012.
Nursey, I meant to include the phrase “will get AT LEAST a couple of chances …
Kevin, two to four days ago you mentioned that a model or three was showing a “blowtorch” for our area (and the NE in general, I guess). That outlook has changed now, hasn’t it? Forecast highs for ROA for this weekend are only in the mid-60s according to both WDBJ7 and WSET13 (for Lynchb.). Those temps would be a few degrees warmer than normal, but nothing special. Unlike the high of 53 for ROA yesterday, 55 today, and 51 expected (according again to both “7″ and “13″)for Tuesday, which are way below the normal highs of about 62.
All of us letter carriers are REALLY looking forward to Wednesday (although we may STILL have to case and deliver some!), because even if the guy(s) we voted for lost, NO MORE POLITICAL MAIL!!! Lots of postal customers are getting very sick and tired of it, too. Probably many/most of you folks, also.
As the sun goes down the temps have gone down to 33 F. Nurse Snow, I hope you get to use your snow apparel and that we don’t have to drive up to Snowshoe to see snow this year.
Scott Patrick – I, too, have a row of garlic planted. We mulched it before Hurricane Sandy went through. I also have some collards and peas growing.
Kevin, is the Blacksburg NWS Open House still on for this Saturday? If so, I plan to be there around the noon hour and invite other bloggers to join me. I want to learn all about my namesake – Doppler.
For the first time this season, I had ice on my windshield when I left work in Bedford this morning. It was a not so subtle reminder to put an ice scraper in my car.
Thanks for the reminder about the NWS thing in Blacksburg, D-Carol. I knew there would be something (besides missing out on a possible golf date) that I was disappointed about for having to work on Saturday. There is a tiny chance that one of our carriers who has been on the “disabled list” may return to work then, in which case I will be off work.
Just updated website about Nor’easter discussion. Looking more and more that this event will go more east with a glancing blow to the coast.
For those interested, Dt @wxrisk.com will be on the WRVA 1140 AM Jimmy Barrett Morning Show at 7:05 AM on Tuesday for a storm update. I will post the podcast on the site. WRVA is on I-heart and at:
http://www.1140wrva.com/main.html
Long day in the sky. Off to bed. Will have an update on El Nino Tuesday
NWS-Blacksburg open house is Saturday. I will link some information later this week. I might be there for awhile, as I may not be out of town yet. Will let you know.
It is 24 F before the sun comes up over the ridge here in Dopplerville. It was 26 a half hour ago and there is heavy frost. Looks to be mostly cloudy this morning. I hope the sun will be able to break through.
Wow…22 Degrees with heavy frost (looks like light snow!) here in Woodlawn this morning…coldest morning since last winter…great day to cast your vote.
Even Roanoke dipped to 28 this morning, officially.
HPC map reflects continued shift on models farther east with nor’easter — large part of state in white now, meaning no precipitation expected next 5 days. Exception is west of I-77 which may get a little rain/snow with southeast-diving disturbance that will eventually help spin up the nor’easter.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
We had our lowest overnight temperature yet in New River, down to a very chilly 22 with a substantial frost. We were below freezing well before midnight too. Our growing season hadn’t quite ended until yesterday morning, but it’s certainly over now!
It was 28 on my upstairs thermometer at 6:30 and later saw it was right on target for the NWS reading. Some of you got pretty chilly this morning! I cannot get over to the NWS open house on Saturday until afternoon, sometime after one. Hosting some important Hokie alums in the morning. I hope to meet some of you…should we come with nametags?? Our letter carrier, Dopp Carol, family guy pilot, the vet, “wd”, that Hokie person…what a diverse group we are! Mike H – if you drew a heart shape on yours <3, we'd know who you were.
Election today – but a win all Hokies can agree on needs to happen on Thursday.
By the way … look who’s helping on The Washington Post’s “Capital Weather Gang” blog today …
http://tinyurl.com/by2ojf5
Wow! KP is a rock star now! Way to go girl!
It was cold here this morning in Goochland, Co at 25 degrees with a heavy frost. Other than that it’s a beaut of a morn’ here.
Website is updated on Nor’easter. Looks like it will be well offshore to only give a glancing blow to the coast. Great news for DE/NJ/NY coast. Most of our region will miss out and stay dry.
After this low passes, the warm up begins for the next 7-10 days with daytime temps returning to 60s to low 70s with lows in the 30s-40s. More seasonal like.
For those of you keeping watch on the rest of fall and winter, The October AO data is in and it is looking better for Snow Lovers this winter. I’ll talk about this in the coming days on my website as well as an updated winter forecast.
Also looking at the extended forecast beyond November 17, there is a growing concern that the eastern US could see another possibility of a major event sometime around Thanksgiving. Again, it’s way out there but the teleconnections are beginning to line up for something to happen then.
Also…I’ll post the weekly ENSO report & AO report as it appears that El Nino may finally show signs of coming to life and hold onto remaining weak thru April.
http://www.quagmireweathercentral.webs.com
I plan on being at the NWS around noon on Saturday. Name tags? Hmmm.
No sun yet and the growing season is now over up here on the ridge.
What the ????? Short term models for 12Z runs turning Nor’easter back west and intensifies? Back to updating
Wasn’t the high for today supposed to be around 50*? I don’t think we are going to get there. I went to vote at 6:00 this morning and was surprised to see how many people were standing in the dark very cold morning waiting to vote.
Would agree. Leo Lady, overcast holding temp down. Feels/looks like January. Fortunately my polling place could accommodate line of 100+ inside.
I live in Beford and it looks like it is snowing on Apple Orchard Mtn. Are there any other areas getting snow showers in the mtns. today?
Interesting post on the NWS Blacksburg Facebook page this morning about the “Snow Advance Index”:
“Snow cover across Eurasia, as defined by Cohen/Jones in October, can mean a colder and/or snowier winter. October 2012 featured the strongest Snow Advance Index (SAI) since 1976 and 2009. Both of those winters were “active” to say the least around here. Winter ’76 was the second coldest at Roanoke and coldest winter at Danville, Lynchburg and Blacksburg.”
This was accompanied by a snow cover map which showed much above snow pack across north Asia/Europe. As a snow bird, I love the sound of that!
runforfun77: I thought I saw a little bit of milky white look reaching down to the top of Poor Mountain while I was out. Perhaps a few flakes making it to higher elevations.
Ichthus: Snow lovers should be encouraged by that — however, even if it’s cold, it will still take the right pattern to get storm systems to move into that cold in a timely manner, or we’ll be left with dry hand-cracking cold. 76-77 had about 20 inches for Roanoke — lots of small events, no biggies. It was also a weak El Nino winter with the NAO having gone from primarily positive in the first half of the year to primarily negative in second half of the year. Sounds kinda familiar …
I will be publishing my winter outlook on Wednesday focusing heavily on weak El Nino and almost El Nino winters locally, as so far the Pacific is riding the bubble between those 2.
I was surprised at how chilly it was at lunch in Blacksburg, definitely feels like winter wedge weather with the cold and overcast conditions.
I saw the same thing. Didn’t look right for snowflakes tho, so figured it was more like freezing fog/clouds.
For those of you that thought you saw snowflakes on the ridge tops, you were right. Here’s the radar loop from Dopplerville. Notice the counter clockwise twist pattern. Looks like a little mid-upper level energy moving thru the area. This will get absorbed by the developing coastal low.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=FCX&loop=yes
Here’s a visible loop
http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=CLT&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis
Got in my car to come home about 3:45, and the temp on 31st Street NW in Roanoke city was 41!! At almost 4 PM on NOV 6th? Got home and as typically happens, dropped another 2 degrees to 39 driving the last 1/2 mile up Sugar Loaf Mntn Road. Those are temps that are even below normal for 4 PM on January 20th!!
With all this much-colder-than-normal air near the surface compared to just about any other early November I can think of since 1997, the chances for an early (as in by Nov. 30th) and substantial snowstorm are much higher this year than most previous years.
I remember in the late 1980s (or possibly the very early 1990s) Nancy and I finally sweet-talked my sister Donna and her family into driving to Alexandria for Thanksgiving. They got caught in a fairly intense snowstorm NE of Baltimore, and were slowed way down. Alexandria got some snow, but less than Maryland. I couldn’t believe their bad luck ….. some Thanksgivings were very pleasant during the years we lived there. Of course it melted within 2 days as I remember it.
This is a comment about voter turnout today, NOT about the specific politics. The link at the top of this page claims that voter turnout is down this year in Roanoke (I assume Roanoke city) compared to 2008. Not according to three fellow letter carriers and my manager who all voted in Roanoke city. Lines were very long at all 4 locations. Could have been (partially) because of machines not working (I think a VFW site had that problem) or sites being undermanned.
I just looked at this week’s ENSO report, and although it does show a recent uptick in 3.4 temps, they still did not reach the +0.5 minimum benchmark (which needs to be maintained for FIVE consecutive monthly levels for an official El Nino to be established). You heard it here …. this winter will be ENSO neutral, NOT an El Nino. With temps probably hovering between 0.0 and +0.5.
Here in Marion, we’ve been scraping windshields for a good while and temperatures in the 20s has been common. We’re supposed to get some snow tonight and it feels like it. It was snowing on Whitetop earlier today.
Alrite Cap’t. What the latest on the storm more west and inland?.
Today’s temperatures would have definitely supported a substantial snow event in Southwest Virginia with a bit different track of the upper-level energy. Roanoke only made 41 and Blacksburg 36 with no precipitation falling. Classic January day in November.
wdbrand:
I assume you are talking to me. Storm will not affect VA except along the coast. The westward jog will not be enough to change anything for us in the Old Dominion. Current WRF & 12z GFS came back west and is colder which will guarantee 3-6″ snow along the I-95 corridor from north of Baltimore to New England and inland. This little twist in the mid-upper levels over Martinsville is intriging me as this was not forecast.
Thanks Cap’t