UPDATE 11:30 PM, 11/5: Frosty morning on Tuesday; new East Coast storm’s main effects likely stay well east of SW Virginia
UPDATE 11:30 PM, 11/5: More frosty morning lows in the upper 20s and low 30s (already there on my thermometer) on Tuesday morning. No frost/freeze advisories are out since growing season has been declared over in our region as of Monday by the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. Still looks like brunt of nor’easter’s effects will be well north and east of us. No serious weather hindrances to voting in our region on Tuesday. Will plan to update with a new blog post sometime Tuesday, perhaps in the evening. END UPDATE
A cold morning is ahead with freeze warnings north of Roanoke and frost advisories from Roanoke southward – and none of these to the west where it will likely be even colder but the growing season is considered over. After lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s in most of Southwest Virginia, highs Monday will only make the upper 40s to mid 50s most places, before similar lows Tuesday morning.
All indications are that a significant low-pressure system will develop along the Atlantic coast by Tuesday and move north to north-northeast along the coast through the remainder of the week, bringing wind, rain, waves and to many locations already battered by Superstorm Sandy. At this time, it appears that Southwest Virginia will be on the periphery of the storm’s effects … in fact, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has an obvious sliver of light precipitation amounts signaling a “rain shadow” from about Roanoke south into western North Carolina. It just appears from the various model depictions that phasing of the jet stream branches north and south will occur a bit late for the storm to deepen far enough south for significant effects in our part of Viriginia. What our area may get, as is often the case with nor’easter type storms that come together off Hatteras or a little farther north, is some of the disturbances moving through that go into the larger storm. These may trigger periods of showers — rain and/or snow — Tuesday and Wednesday, but heavy precipitation is not expected. For now, it appears that heavy rain will be limited to the eastern half of the state, with significant snow potential at higher elevations mainly in the northern half of the state — and even that is iffy. There is still significant wiggle room on this forecast over the next 2-4 days as this storm comes together, but I would expect at this point that any wiggling would be for the storm forming farther north/east or later, and having even less effect on our weather.
The nor’easter will keep some breezy, colder than normal weather (40s-50s highs, 30s lows) going through Thursday, before a warmup begins as upper winds turn out of the southwest ahead of what is likely to be yet another powerful storm system, this one in the central U.S.