Just a little rain on our dry ground overnight/early Tuesday; few if any snowflakes
This isn’t going to close to a drought-busting rain for Southwest Virginia. No more than a quarter-inch is projected from showers that develop overnight and early Tuesday as a rather diffuse wave slides through along a cold front. Hopefully it will help some with the scattered brush fires that have developed. Cold air sufficient for snowfall is a little north of our region, for the most part — don’t be stunned if you see a few wet snowflakes early Tuesday, especially if you live north or northwest of Roanoke and/or above 3,000 feet in elevation. Significant accumulations are unlikely south and east of maybe some of the higher ridges in Alleghany or Bath counties. This rain is unlikely to rescue this month from being one of the 10 driest Novembers in 101 years of records at Roanoke, which has only 0.55 inch of rain this month through Monday at 5 p.m.
The rest of the week looks dry and rather typical temperature-wise for late November, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s/30s common. A weekend cold front might not even quite be able to push through the region before moving north as a warm front. It is possible we get a surge of warmth to start December, with some days of 60s highs next week, as the Pacific-North American negative pattern (PNA-), with dominant low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest rotating mild west-southwest upper winds over much of the nation, continues. We’ll continue to watch for clues that this pattern might break in December, and allow colder air from Canada to ooze southward. A storm system moving over the Great Lakes and into Canada around Dec. 5 might circulate at least some cold air southward.
November 26, 2012 - 9:14 PM
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43* here and cloudy, a tiny rain shower went through a little after 5 AM. Less than 1/10th inch of rain, but there are tiny puddles in a couple of spots. Negative wind.
Doppler Ridge reporting in – 37, cloudy skies and no rain. We did have about 20 drops around 3 am but no rain measured in the rain gauge and not enough to wash the dust off of the back car window. Sigh.
We picked up 0.10″ of rain in the evening and overnight. From what I could see on the CoCoRaHS page, it appears to be one of the higher totals in the area that has been reported. Unfortunately, it also means that in the past nearly 2 weeks (12 days), that’s the only rain we’ve recieved. For the month, we have 1.17″, well less than half of normal. And that’s on top of October’s total of 1.67″. For the calendar year, we now sit 4.51″ dry, and by the end of the month, our cumulative dryness from May-November will be close to 5″.
To put that into a different perspective, since I began recording precipitation, we have averaged 41.74″ of rain in the 3 years I’ve done it. This year, we stand at just 30.63″ of total precipitation. Without a significantly wet December, this will easily be the dryest of the past 4 years in my neck of the woods. The trend of widespread dryness does not give me encouragement about the winter potential, and gives me significant concern about agricultural interests and prospects going into next year if some pattern busting doesn’t occur to help ease the growing and persisting drought conditions across much of the US.
Currently at a turf grass meeting in Front Royal and I see some snow mixing with rain, back home in Greene county there isn’t any precipitation at all! Seems the moisture skirted north of Greene.
It barely dampened the pavement where I’m at south of Roanoke.
Roanoke Regional Airport recorded .06 total. I would say that’s at least 6 times as much as I got.
Didn’t even settle the dust here in Rocky Mount. Smith Mountain Lake looks awful with floating docks partially sitting on the ground and numerous others landlocked completely. AEP website says it’s down 5.2 feet, but certainly looks worse than that.
I heard it rain fairly hard last night for a change and we need it, but willing to bet it wasn’t more than 0.25″. If it would have lasted longer we may have had a decent rainfall. I miss the rain and I would rather have a nice snowy/rainy day in the 20′s-40′s any day this time of year than sunny, dry and 55-degrees plus! I know, I’m an odd one, but don’t like warmth in late fall/winter and miss the cloudy, rainy, chilly days as winter approaches to cold, snowy days. Hate the dry pattern and hate ice!!
There was barely anything in the rain gauge this morning. I would estimate about 0.05 inches. I too am skeptical about our chances for significant snowfall this winter unless we start getting more frequent precipitation. I wonder if precipitation will increase when/if the PNA changes to positive. For now I won’t complain about the mild and dry weather continuing for the next couple of weeks, as I still have a lot of fencing and barn building work to finish before winter sets in.
Jason in Riner and Other John – I totally agree with your comments about the dry weather – we need rain, but Jason, I know you could use some mild and dry weather for the next couple weeks. The pattern needs to break soon.
Currently 43 and overcast here on Doppler Ridge.
Generally, the GFS model today looks colder and wetter beyond Dec. 5. Don’t see obvious winter storms on there, but more vigorous storm systems in general tapping some moisture, and some punches of colder air behind them.
Euro through Day 10, and the first low crossing the Great Lakes into Canada, seems to generally be on the same page.
We start mild next week though. Wouldn’t be surprised if Roanoke and eastward hit 70 a day or two.
0.05″ here today, none yesterday.
I am going to toot my own horn, About the piddling rainfall amounts (except for Scott, wherever it is that he lives …. HINT, HINT, SS!!), I told us so! Too much dry air AND dry ground around, plus a weak, quick-moving system.
Other John, compared to bunches of other locations mostly east of you, you are a relative rain hog. RRA now has a whopping 0.61 inches of rain in November, and that will probably be the month’s total. Your total for the year is almost identical to Roanoke Airport, however. RRA had a heck of a time finally getting to 30 inches, and they still have not reached 31 inches.
At 5:37 I saw an interesting sight. I was walking Ancient Dog across the street, and I remembered that tonight and tomorrow are full moon nights (technically it is 100% full during late tomorrow morning). So I looked east, and saw the full moon …. almost. Could only see the top half of it, because there was a big cloud bank covering the bottom of the eastern sky. Kind of pretty. I figured, “No problem, because the moon is slowly climbing into the sky, while the clouds should be retreating to the east.” Somebody forgot to tell the clouds that. Pretty soon the moon was out of sight. Update: moon is still hidden. If we are not going to get any kind of decent rain totals, at least we should be able to see the full moon …..
Clear view of the moon now Doug. My house on the eastside has two sets of windows up very high and on a night like this the moon shines brightly into the room. I always joke I can stargaze from inside the house!!
Full Beaver Moon…Nov 28
,,,we will just miss seeing it,but theres also an eclipse.
You have to be in Alaska Hawaii or
Australia..(out in the Pacific) to see
its totality. Some folks can watch half of it (on the west coast)
till the moon sets. It sets on the west coast
as its getting started.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaver_moon
http://www.examiner.com/article/penumbral-eclipse-of-the-moon-november-28-2012
Just walked the dogs and no moon seen from up here. The sky is cloudy but the moonlight is trying to filter through. Temp is 37 – clouds will probably keep the temps above freezing.
Carol…I think you may yet see freezing..
clouds will thin overnight,,,especially early am
about sun-up…I think youll see a good bit of frost..
and probably some places to 30F…especially west of Roanoke..
Im going out on a little limb..but 30F or less will be close in ROA.