This isn’t going to close to a drought-busting rain for Southwest Virginia. No more than a quarter-inch is projected from showers that develop overnight and early Tuesday as a rather diffuse wave slides through along a cold front. Hopefully it will help some with the scattered brush fires that have developed. Cold air sufficient for snowfall is a little north of our region, for the most part — don’t be stunned if you see a few wet snowflakes early Tuesday, especially if you live north or northwest of Roanoke and/or above 3,000 feet in elevation. Significant accumulations are unlikely south and east of maybe some of the higher ridges in Alleghany or Bath counties. This rain is unlikely to rescue this month from being one of the 10 driest Novembers in 101 years of records at Roanoke, which has only 0.55 inch of rain this month through Monday at 5 p.m.
The rest of the week looks dry and rather typical temperature-wise for late November, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s/30s common. A weekend cold front might not even quite be able to push through the region before moving north as a warm front. It is possible we get a surge of warmth to start December, with some days of 60s highs next week, as the Pacific-North American negative pattern (PNA-), with dominant low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest rotating mild west-southwest upper winds over much of the nation, continues. We’ll continue to watch for clues that this pattern might break in December, and allow colder air from Canada to ooze southward. A storm system moving over the Great Lakes and into Canada around Dec. 5 might circulate at least some cold air southward.