UPDATE 8:30 PM: Some showers overnight/Sunday morning; mid-week storm adds to coastal misery, might brush a little wet snow into SW Virginia by Wednesday
UPDATE 8:30 PM: Rain appears to be getting an early start, moving in from West Virginia into Southwest Virginia. Track the latest radar here by linking here. END UPDATE
A quick-moving, relatively weak low-pressure system will slide southeastward just south of our region early Sunday, triggering some light rain, near and shortly after sunrise. A little sleet or snow can’t be ruled out, especially in higher elevations, but its track will allow it to lift in some slightly milder air aloft that will probably turn most precipitation liquid. In any event, the precipiation will be light and wont’ last long, probably not past mid-morning Sunday.
The big story of the coming weather week is the potential for a significant East Coast storm to follow the misery left behind by Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy early this past week. Southwest Virginia snow lovers will immediately note the current Hydrometoerological Prediction Center projected track from the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday to near Cape Hatteras on Wednesday is a common one for some of our bigger winter storms — when it’s actually winter. There may be some chance of wet snow on Wednesday, but there are some obstacles for this being a winter storm threat in our neck of the woods. First, cold air is marginal — no major renewed Arctic shot ahead of the storm’s arrival. There is some evidence of cold-air damming on some of the model runs — high pressure to the northeast pushing cold air south and west against the eastern slopes of the Appalachians — but it’s relatively weak, easily scoured out, and models suggest there may be a secondary weak low in the Ohio Valley (shown on the inset Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s weather map for Wednesday at left) that may rotate in a bit milder air. Another factor that will make it hard for widespread, significant snow to develop Wednesday is that the low may strengthen just a bit too late to fling an adequate amount of moisture far enough westward to intercept any cold air here. But it is just close enough on some points that it’s worth monitoring for any wintry weather potential, though some cold rain showers and more breezy chill will be a little more likely. Whatever it does in Southwest Virginia — and, as with Sandy, we are likely to be outside its core impacts –this “son of Sandy” is likely to tighten into a strong coastal “nor’easter” storm by Thursday that will bring more wind, waves, rain and snow to much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, regions that don’t particularly want those kind of things to happen right now after being blasted by Superstorm Sandy.
Warmth lovers, your time is coming — by next weekend and early the following week, a pattern shift will sweep much milder and perhaps downright warm air into much of the East. Until then, highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s will be common — maybe even colder than the 50s in the day if there is significant precipitation.
November 3, 2012 - 6:17 PM
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Any clue yet as to whether this upcoming warm spell may actually be a pattern change and will keep the warmth here for a while, or if the cold will soon return?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPAjxT6xheE&feature=g-crec-u
Long-range indicators (AO, NAO, PNA) are generally not favorable for a prolonged return to colder than normal temperatures in the next couple of weeks after this period ends. But there may be some sign of at least a decently cold Canadian/Arctic front pushing through Nov. 15-20 or so.
I would call this pattern amplified, subject to some big ups and downs … and big storm systems. Looks likely we’ll have 2 in the next 7-10 days — the East Coast “Son of Sandy” nor’easter and a big central U.S. storm that could lead to both a severe weather outbreak and a High Plains blizzard.
I am down in Winston-Salem NC right now. I drove down yesterday evening to Jonesville, 20+ miles down I-77 south of the Virg.-NC border. Drove down the spectacular big hill from Fancy Gap to the NC border about 9:30, and got a real treat. Fabulous view to the east and SE, and a rising moon. VERY pretty under the absolutely clear skies.
Hey, Kathryn Prociv, it was definitely “3C” weather last night and early this morning for the first time in about a week …. clear, calm, and cold. I awakened at the motel with a bit of an unwelcome surprise, a thin layer of frost on the windshields. It was 34* at 8 AM, so it might have gotten down to 33 or possibly 32 an hour earlier.
Weather for the golf round was superb, although still coolish for this old man in the shadows for the first 6 holes or so (and I did not tee off until noon!). With humidity feeling like 20% (OK, it was not that low probably), the difference between sunny areas and full shade felt like 7 or 8 degrees. Take care everyone.
And REMEMBER TO TURN BACK YOUR CLOCKS!
Hey, Kevin, since things are slow on the blog during the previous 24+ hours, what are your thoughts about what the NAO and AO are going to do for the next 3 months, through January? Do you think that both or at least one of them is going to remain predominantly negative?
If only one was going to stay (mostly) negative, I would definitely predict that it would be the NAO, not the AO. That is based on what each has done over the late spring, summer, and early autumn months.
If you would rather delay responding to that first question and include mentioning it in your outlook for winter in a few days, that would be fine with me.
Leaning NAO- through first half of winter, maybe not all the time, but overall trend. Lots of blocking highs so far. Arctic ice melt was high this year (biggest on record, at least in satellite ere), and some studies have shown a link between that and high pressure in northern latitudes leading to blocking.
Updated to note rain showers on our doorstep moving in from W.Va.
That rain shower hit about 8:12 PM in west Hokieburg on Prices Fork Road. Almost out of the blue and brisk enough to get my car windshield clean. Then stopped as suddenly as it started.
Got a new temperature gauge for downstairs that measures indoor and outdoor. At night the temp is right in line with Weatherbug on my phone. In the daytime it was higher even though I tucked it out of direct sunlight…or perhaps my south-facing backyard really was warmer.
In my shopping errands today, I noted, in general, that stocks are low at stores in certain items and wondering if it is due to the aftermath of Sandy. On online sites, it states that there could be shipping delays due to Sandy.
Thank you Hokie Trax for letting me know that the rain had already arrived in Blacksburg. I checked the radar and saw it was heading this way so I hurriedly walked the dogs. And just in time; it has been raining hard for the last half hour or so. Temperature is down to 39 F and we have received “0.19″ inches of rain. Looks like more heading this way.
Dopp Carol – Hokieburg got more rain this evening, on and off. Temp here is 41.
So how cold and dry is this arctic front in mid-Nov? I am doing archaeology Nov. 17 – 19 near Luray and hoping it is at least dry and not finger-numbing cold.
Not nearly enough detail on a potential front in that time span, or even if it will happen, to say too much. Suspect it won’t be anything unusual for November.
GFS showing significant low forming off the Outer Banks
on Wed morning..wind field looks impressive so far for mid to late day Wed 7th…40-45kts Atlantic City etc..watch for the weather channel tie-in
to Sandy.TWC..Queue the jaws music.
It really rained hard last night. We received “0.56″ inches. It is foggy this morning and a temperature of 37 F. Time to rekindle the fire in the stove.
Both the 0Z GFS and 0Z Euro lead me to think the low deepens just a little too late and moves just far enough offshore that its effects on us would be fairly minimal — if these models are correct.
I think TWC may pull out its first winter storm name considering the snow that may fall in the Northeast corridor.
I have used “Son of Sandy” here and #SonOfSandy on Twitter partly because I’d rather use that than the Weather Channel’s name (which I won’t be using) and because there is at least one link between the two, that Sandy’s long-lasting inland rotation helped keep the trough carved out that will give birth to this storm.
It also spells SOS which may be appropriate for some areas along the East Coast.
Some rain totals around the area:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201211041411-KRNK-NOUS41-PNSRNK
Doppler Carol: You got exactly the same amount as Mountain View Church IFLOWS in Floyd County.
The weather service Web site continues to be on a partial, backup mode because the cut fiber-optic cable earlier this week.
But there is a freeze watch out overnight/early Monday generally for counties north and northeast of Roanoke, including Alleghany, Botetourt and Bedford.
http://www.weather.gov/rnk/
Probably will be some frost advisories farther south later. Frost/freeze advisories are no longer being issued for Floyd, Montgomery and Craig counties and to the west and southwest because growing season has been declared over.
Had my first 32 low at my house just south of Roanoke Saturday morning, but the official Roanoke temperature site at the airport hasn’t hit freezing yet.
It was cloudy and cool yesterday only 45 for a high,low this morning was 34.Sun is out and its a real nice day here finally temp at 45 right now.Gonna go to the store and get me some crab legs for lunch,and then watch the skins try to beat Carolina.Everyone have a great Sunday!Mike!
Euro shows snow from I64 and north, while GFS has all rain! Who is going to be the Victor this time? DT seems to be leaning toward the Euro again, but we all know he hates the GFS. Lets hope the Euro prevails so we can have some of that pretty white stuff!
Wx Wizard.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/wizard-of-id-slideshow/
Kevin or anyone who might know…
I preaching a sermon tonight about the storms of life titled: what our storms teach us, and I wanted to make reference to Sandy. Is there a good article out there summarizing the full impact of this storm?
Sunday afternoon 12Z Euro operational run says major Noreaster is on for November 7-9.
This will be a major mess for the Mid-Atlantic & NE coastal regions with 50 mph winds along the coast especially fro VA up to Cape Cod. Not good if you in the Sandy ravaged areas.
As for snow, it will be an inland snow above 1000′ for mainly north of the Mason-Dixon line with 3-8″ wet snow. The only places in VA that will see snow will be north of I-64 & west of US 29 to DC above 2000′.
updating website now.
Robert: A lot of the reporting on Sandy is still in the short-term here and now stage that there aren’t a lot of comprehensive reports yet.
HPC did a roundup of precip amounts and wind speeds:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.php?storm=SANDY&adnum=37&dt=2012103115&status=remnants
Looks like Googling Sandy brings up lots of reports by news organizations that sum up many of the effects.
Thanks, I refer to the weather from time to time in my sermons. I find its full of great illustrations and life lessons.
Robert: Here’s an AP report with state-by-state impacts (as they are now, and as they were)
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SUPERSTORM_SANDY_STATES?SITE=VAROA&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-11-04-15-52-14
Preacher, you might want to throw in some tips on how they can/could prepare to lessen the impacts of such an event at their own house. Like stocking up on non-perishable goods[anything that don't require electricity to fix], extra fuel, batteries, a generator if they can afford one, extra medicine, lanterns and candles. This would lessen their misery and maybe allow them to help a neighbor in need.
I just read your comment number 6 last night, Kevin, and I now agree with you. Next 3 months look to be mostly cold ones with mostly NAO neg. I am of course hopeful that the pattern will change (both in terms of negative NAO and cold than normal temps) by New Year’s Day at latest. Now I do not agree with Randy Oakey’s statement (although I am rooting big time for his outlook to be right!!) that the huge Sandy storm and another nor’easter in 2-3 days will be a pattern changer (I assume that he meant to warmer than normal conditions long run and end of neg. NAO).
I still need to do research on previous NAO patterns, but one of my very favorites (Daily Climate Data) just got changed much for the worse, and I no longer may have access to records starting JAN 2000.
I emptied the rain gauge here when I arrived about noon …. just under 4/10ths, a bit more than what IFLOWS for Sugar Loaf showed. Lawn looks great.
I drove home via the BURP (my unique acronym for the BlUe Ridge Parkway) from Fancy Gap to Tuggles Gap/Route 8, then into Floyd and home via Route 221. Only saw fog in a couple of locations, and by far the thickest (and the only fog bank that I actually drove through) was on 221 at the very top (start, from my point of view) of the huge downhill from Bent Mountain to Haram Church and Bent Creek Elementary School. Fog was only a factor for first 2 or 3 tenths of a mile.
Jay Webb of WDBJ7 (but his broadcast was on MY19 because of NFL game) just showed pictorially what the GFS and EURO models are forecasting for the mid-week northeaster. Biggest difference between the two overall was how quickly the GFS takes the storm up the coast. EURO predicts a bit slower movement. From what I could tell, GFS shows the rainfall staying completely east of SW Virginia. While EURO shows us in the slight chance of generally light rains (probably Lynchburg and Danville, the two cities that need it most of the BBURG-DANV-LYNCH-ROA foursome, would get a lot more than ROA, Blacksburg, and especially Wytheville and Bluefield).
Hey guys…you mention that it’s going to warm up. How warm are we talkin’?
In trying to think positively, maybe the nor’easter will bring the Hokies better luck on Thursday night against FSU but not happy about the problems it may cause in the north east.
I was outdoors most of the day with my student group. The sun tried its hardest to peek out but clouds prevailed so it stayed pretty chilly. We ended the day with camp stove hot chocolate and that hit the spot!
HPC showing Roanoke/NRV in rain shadow this week — sorta like happened with Sandy.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
The nor’easter may make it breezy and cold for Thursday night. But probably won’t have much more effect than that. What effect it will have on the game itself — Hokies need something different, that’s for sure.
Hey Doug, as you headed on 221 out of Floyd did you see the Doppler off to your left? You should have waved as you went by.
Nope, I did not see it. Sorry. I thought you were much closer to Copper Hill area …