Showery weather may move in a bit earlier than expected this week, as I turn blog over to Kathryn Prociv a few days
I enjoyed seeing several of you at the National Weather Service Open House in Blacksburg on Saturday — frequent blog commenters Doug Griggs, Doppler Carol and HokieTrax among them. Many good conversations about weather, speaking both as The Roanoke Times weather blogger and as a Virginia Tech storm chaser. A good reminder of how passionate many people in our region are about weather.
We went from a cloudy, gloomy Tuesday with temperatures even colder than January norms (30s and low 40s) to sunshine and above-normal temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s over much of Southwest Virginia on Saturday. Expect a similar day on Sunday, but things will be different by Monday. The next cold front appears to be moving in faster than previously thought, so Monday and particularly Monday night and early Tuesday will likely be our showery period, not later on Tuesday as earlier thought. This afternoon’s North American Model’s “simulated radar” map puts a broad line of light to moderate showers through the region shortly after midnight in the wee hours of Tuesday morning. Again, we’re not talking about huge amounts of rain with this, likely well less than an inch for most — tonight’s Hydrometerological Prediction Center 3-day rainfall map shows 0.25 to 0.75 inch amounts across Southwest Virginia. Also, while a rumble or two of thunder may not be entirely out of the question, the best upper-level wind dynamics will be tracking with the low-pressure system into Canada, so there is little to no threat of severe storms. Once the front clears, we’ll be getting back to more typical November temperatures, even a little colder than normal through the last 3 days of the week with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
There are still lots of questions about how a potential Thanksgiving week system may evolve moving across the country. I know that’s of concern to anyone traveling for the holidays. Maybe there’ll be a little more certainty about it by the time I get back on the blog Thursday. In the meantime, Kathryn Prociv will again be filling in for me Monday-Wednesday.