Strong cold front bulldozes the nice weather away, bringing showers, gusty winds and a return to near-normal temperatures
By guest blogger Kathryn Prociv
Greetings everyone, and Happy Veteran’s Day to all! It is a pleasure to be back and covering the Weather Journal blog for Kevin while he takes some time off early this week.
When we woke up this morning we could tell a big change in weather is in store! After a fabulous weekend of prolific warmth and sunshine, a cold front brings a return to classic November weather by this time tomorrow. The dense cloud cover was the first clue of the changes to come, along with some reports of light showers in Blacksburg this morning. Today we continue the warm trend thanks to nice southerly flow, but not the sunny trend. Temperatures will still climb into the mid-60s (well above average), but we stay under these thick clouds that are advancing out ahead of the cold front. As the cold front nears, expect the chance for some showers to increase from west to east along with an increase in winds. The current radar as of 11 a.m. shows the broad area of precipitation associated with the front marching its way east. [The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center forecasts the potential for close to 0.5” of rain for our area through tomorrow morning.] The forecast map shows the front entering our region right around dinner time this evening. The heaviest rain will occur this evening and overnight before gradually tapering off toward the morning from west to east. If you have evening plans, make sure to pack an umbrella! Overnight lows will depend on the speed of the front. Areas impacted first will have longer to cool down behind the front, causing temperatures to dip into the mid-30s west of the Blue Ridge, but should remain in the 40s for locations east.
As the cold front exits our area east tomorrow morning, it will take the precipitation and cloud cover with it but leave behind gusty northwest winds and colder temperatures. Expect partly cloudy skies tomorrow and a return to near normal temperatures for this time of year with highs in the mid-40s west to low 50s closer to the Piedmont. With nearly a 20-degree difference in high temperatures compared to the weekend, we’ll be back to status quo in terms of climate normals, but it doesn’t mean we have to be happy about it!
November 12, 2012 - 5:20 PM
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Welcome back.
Good evening everyone! I apologize the images and hyperlink were not posted linked.
Here’s a link to my Twitter showing the current radar. Pack an umbrella if you’re headed out for the evening!: https://twitter.com/KathrynProciv/status/268119256313520128/photo/1
Also, we could get a decent amount of precipitation through tomorrow evening per the HPC: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif
Welcome back KP. We won’t ask what blog is a bigger thrill to guest blog on. We know it’s this one. I’m a winter/snow lover but I sure enjoyed our weekend weather.
We’ve had some technical and communication problems that kept KP from getting posted earlier. My apologies.
Good to be back! I LOVE conversing with the Roanoke Weather Journal peeps. Everyone staying dry out there tonight?
Hi all…
Did I miss anything? Been in Europe this week. Geneva tonight & blasting off for Lisbon, Oslo, Sola, London & back home in the US Thursday night. Will update the website this week little by little as I have a ton of nothing to do between flights. All this talk about another storm around the 20th seems somewhat over done. Looks like the rest of November will be close to normal with temps staying that way thru at least the 2nd week of December. Off to bed…back later
Welcome Kathryn! I’m a constant blog reader, rare poster. I for one am looking forward to it getting back to November weather. It was a nice reprieve this weekend and I enjoyed getting out in it, but I love fall weather.
I keep hearing chatter that there’s some kind of something possible next week. I’m going out of town Wednesday (Thanksgiving at the beach!) and am worried that this something could be snow. I am a snow LOVER but not when I’m traveling. Any insight on this? Or is it just rain? Or nothing at all that I’ve blown into something in my head?
First off, Nurse Snow, that brutal weather for mid-November (even for Montana) was probably courtesy of Popeye’s rival, “Brutus.” Please forgive me for using that lame name. I laughed out loud after reading your comment, nursey!
Quags, you asked what you missed. Some valuable research by yours truly on either Friday or more likely Saturday evening. About what kind of winter usually follows after the NAO is negative by at least -0.34 in November. Almost universally the NAO flips to positive by February at the latest, and usually by January. You can look back through the previous threads for the details, which you should (because you have a weather blog).
“Weather Journal peeps??” Are you calling all of us Peeping Toms and Tomasinas, Kathryn? :>) :>) :>)
Looks like another blow hole commin fer Roanoke. What’s new?
BTW, I basically enjoyed “Skyfall.” Had some ridiculous scenes, including impossible escapes both by Bond and the villain played by a blonde Javier Bardem (who looks really stupid as a blonde). After spending most of the movie in the incredibly techno world of now and the future, the ending goes back to an almost medieval setting. Of course I liked the ending, partially because of that.
Jennifer, we have had very few truly “November-like” days this month. Most of the first 8 felt like December or even January, and then Saturday, Sunday and today felt like October. Truly a bizarre month so far.
I agree with Carol and wd.. I think we have a Blue Ridge jumper.. not necessarily from the mountains wringing out the moisture, but just from the luck of the draw with the cold front washing out between here and Asheville. I think HPC has us way overdone in rainfall.
Thanks Jennifer for the welcome! So far the models are hinting at another possible coastal storm for the East Coast in the Sunday-Wednesday timeframe. As of right now, it looks like it will be weaker than Sandy and last week’s nor’easter so that’s good news! I will address it more in my weather journal post tomorrow for you if that works?
Who up there used Brutus?!?! You’re lucky it’s me and not Kevin who would chew you out for using that haha
Doug we’re totally weather peeps because we “peep” at the weather all the time! Maybe I’m stretching…
Good evening Kathryn and welcome back. We have had on again/off again showers up here on the ridge this evening. Nothing really that I would call a hard rain. Temps are slowly dropping; no wind yet but I am sure it is coming.
Captain Q – safe travels this week.
wdbrand thank you for the welcome as well!
It’s pouring outside in Blacksburg and the wind just kicked up. What are other people experiencing?
Just after I wrote the comment, we had a heavy down pour! But we are back to the showers now. It is 53 and the total rainfall is showing “0.17″ inches so far.
Doppler Carol sounds like similar conditions down your way in Floyd…rain on and off all evening. From the looks of it we may be spared the worst of the wind as the NC mountains and areas south near the border may see the highest wind gusts.
Will interesting to check the rainfall totals in the AM to see how well it matches up with the HPC.
Welcome back, Kathryn. Did you see the complaints I had here last week about the TWC winter-storm-naming policy? Mentioned that at the rate they were going, TWC might be reaching ZZ Top on the 3rd time around the alphabet …. :>)
I am getting a bit frustrated, irked. Even Robin Reed is talking about how the high temps this week will be getting back to “normal” for Roanoke this week, with temps mainly in the mid 50s and a 50* on the button for Saturday, I think. Well, I’ve got news for him (and perhaps others). Normal high temp for ROA today and tomorrow is 60, and still 59* for Wed.-Friday, not the mid nor low 50s. We get three warm days and some folks are yearning for lower temps. I feel that we got “cheated” out of temps in the mid- and low 60s in late October and the first 7 days of NOV.
On the other hand, if this negative NAO leads to a relatively tame winter, I’ll be happy in the long run.
0035 and CHO reported 61 degrees with light rain while Hot Springs reports 37 degrees and light snow.
Remember that day (Saturday?) when Blacksburg had an amazing temp swing between the high and low of 44 degrees? Opposite case today. 42 here and at RRA right now, with a high of only 51 forecasted. By Channel 7. Actually the NWS is forecasting only 49.
Good Tuesday Morning from up on the ridge near the Doppler. It was 32 this morning and we have had “0.44″ inches of rain. Sometime during the early morning hours we were awakened to the sound of sleet hitting the windows.
Sun is trying to shine through the clouds. The wind is blowing so the clouds are flying by the sun.
0.21″ total. 0.19″ last night and 0.02″ early this AM.
We picked up a nice soaking 0.75″ of rain in New River, which equaled what we had gotten for the previous 32 days, combined! But yeah, it was nice and comfy yesterday, and this morning I step outside to 34 and a little breezy…definitely a big change.
It rained on an off all Monday evening. Students were coming into our meetings all soaked last night. I took in my glass rain gauge because of freezing temps so I don’t know how much I got. Do the plastic ones hold up better in freezing weather?
The archaeology project in Luray has been cancelled because of the forecast cold and wet weather this weekend. I’m CRUSHED. Was so looking forward to that. So no weather worries until Tuesday when I travel to OH.
Great to see the rainfall reports from around the area, thanks! The drainage pit outside my building flooded last night. Not so much from the heavy rain but from the leaves that blocked the water from draining down!
Good morning to everyone, and boy you can feel the air mass change outside. Cool and crisp but the sun is shining brightly. Looks like today will be a lovely day.
Doug I agree with your frustrating over the TWC names. Kevin and I share the same sentiments about the whole thing. However, I like your idea of ZZ Top!
Haha on “Brutus”! This whole naming winter storms thing is CRAZY! My dad put in a call to my mom to buy him some under armour cold gear to wear. He’s none too happy about the cold temps in Montana right now. He said the wind pretty much blows ALL the time. My kids are still hoping to have snow soon. Can’t say that I’m not right there with them too!
While traveling home from Smyth County on Sunday night, while in Bland, the side of the road still has areas with 3-5 inches of snow. This is the snow that came from “Sandy”. Amazing how long it has lasted!
Weather reporters would serve their viewers/listeners well by not stating what the “normal” or “average” temperatures are for a given day. This is an extremely deceptive and largely incorrect figure.
The so-called normal high or low on a given day is a mathematical average but not the “real-world” average. Pick any day of the year and take a look at how often the actual high or low is at, or even within a degree or two, of what has been deemed the “normal” figure for that day. Look at actual high/lows for a period of 30 years or more. In a large percentage of the time, the actual high/low will be several degrees, or more, on either side of what is described as “normal”.
Here is an extreme example, but one that indicates just how bad a statistic “normal” high/low temperatures are: Over a 30 year period, if the actual high temperatures on November 13th were 40 degrees on 15 of the years and 60 degrees on the other 15, the “normal” or “average” high would be calculated as 50 degrees. Yet the actual high was never 50 degrees on any of those days over the 30 year period. So how is it correct to state that the “normal” high for that day is 50? Mathematically it may be correct, but real-world wise its incorrect.
We picked up 0.85 inches of rain last night. I was out in the middle of it yesterday evening, unloading and stacking bags of anthracite coal that we use for heating.
Hoke Trax, I use the official CoCoRaHS gauge. I’ve been using it since January 2009, and aside from a small part of the upper lip being chipped from when I dropped it, it’s still in really great shape despite 4 years exposed to all manner of weather and almost 100% direct sun through the summer months. I still make sure to empty the gauge after a rain if it’s forecast to dip below freezing, but I typically leave the outer cylinder out all year, as it helps in collecting snow and sleet pretty well for the liquid equivalent measurements. It’s by far the most durable gauge I’ve ever owned.
http://www.ambientweather.com/strgloteprra.html